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APF Trading

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 14 February 2011

Market Commentary

S & P 500 I ND E X
APF Trading Pte. Ltd.
9 Battery Road
12F Straits Trading Building
Singapore 049910

Jay Ng
jay.ng@apftrading.com

Glenn Ho
glenn.ho@apftrading.com

Website:
www.apftrading.com
www.asiapacfinance.com

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo elements show the bull trend is intact.

Index stayed well above the Tenkan Sen and has not touched Kijun Sen since Oct 2010. From Nov
2010 til now, Tenken Sen stayed above Kijun Sen since the last Tenken Sen/Kijun Sen crossover.
Chikou Span is above index. The current Kumo is thin but thickening.

Notice how the Senkou Span A, Senkou Span B (Kumo), Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen all show a
rough 45 deg upslope.

Index broke the TD Sequential Risk Level at 1257.9801 5 weeks ago on a qualified basis
(represented by a solid line) while TD Setup is in early count. We expect a higher chance of a
completion of TD Sequential Countdown. Last week’s TD Setup perfection suggests a 1-4 period of
correction.

To put things in perspective, there is high probability of a 1-4 weeks correction which would bring
the index level closer to Tenken Sen and Kijun Sen, before continuing the bull trend.

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APF Trading
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 14 February 2011

D O W J O NE S I ND US . I ND E X

The Dow Jones Index was well supported by a thick Kumo from Jun 2010 to Oct 2010, rallying for
another few months now.

At present, Chikou Span is well above prices, with the Tenkan Sen above the Kijun Sen and index
closed above the Tenken Sen for 21 weeks now. Both the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen angles
upwards. These suggest the index is well in a bull trend.

However notice the thin Kumo ahead. This suggest a weak region of support. With the index far
above the Kumo, we are concerned but not placing a high priority to the thin Kumo. The first line of
defence really is still the Tenkan Sen (Magenta Line) and next the Kijun Sen (Yellow Line)

Current TD Setup had broken up of the TD Sequential Risk Level at 11550.6396. This happened
early in the count of TD Setup. There is a good chance this sell countdown would be completed.
The recent perfected TD sell setup might push the index into a 1-4 bar correction.

We expect the index to maintain a bull trend with high probability of a short term correction (1-4
weeks)

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APF Trading
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 14 February 2011

NAS D AQ C O M P O S I T E I ND E X

NASDAQ’s curent bull trend is intact with prices staying well above the Kijun Sen for 20 weeks now.
Chikou Span is above prices. The Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen as well as the Kumo all angle upwards.

The bull trend is still in play. However watch for a TD Sequential Countdown completion in coming
months. The first line of defence is the support at Tenkan Sen.

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APF Trading
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 14 February 2011

H ANG S E NG I ND E X

Hang Seng Index is stuck between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen. Otherwise Tenkan Sen is above
Kijun Sen, Chikou Span above index and index is trading above support region of Kumo.

However also note how the Tenken Sen, Kijun Sen and Kumo are in a flat horizontal zone.

We expect Hang Seng to trade sideways with first line of support at Kijun Sen (22680.4297). The
thin Kumo weeks ahead might not be sufficient support should more bearish signs show up.

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APF Trading
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 14 February 2011

NI K K E I 225

We first look at the basic elements. Chikou is above prices. Following the Tenkan Sen Kijun Sen
bullish crossover on weak resistance (thin Kumo) Dec 2010, prices stayed above Tenkan Sen and
Kijun Sen. Prices also stayed above the Kumo.

While these are bullish signs, we are cautious due to the structure of the Kumo forming. The Nikkei
has been stuck in a trading range for close to 2 years now. Notice how the Kumo twists belly up
and belly down while the index just got stuck in the range. The Senkou Span B is flat for months.

The TD Sequential Risk Level (11390.7402) is expected to be the resistance level to watch for.

We expect more sideway action in coming months for the Nikkei 225

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APF Trading
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 14 February 2011

S H ANG H AI S E C O M P O S I T E

One glance and clearly the Shanghai Index is drifting in the cloud with no clear directions at the
moment. While the Kumo gets thinner, index action is happening inside the Kumo. We typically wait
for clearer gloomy or clear blue skies scenario before getting more excited. Charts like this, it is
best to stay away.

A week ago, index was stuck inside the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen. There was a medium strength
bearish crossover but the Chikou Span was above prices.

Sideway trading expected to be the path of least resistance. We will get too excited over the
Shanghai Index until some further price action takes place.

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APF Trading
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 14 February 2011

K O S P I I ND E X

Index closed significantly below Tenkan Sen last week. The other elements are generally supportive
of the bull. Chikou Span has been above prices for months, Tenkan Sen rising steadily above Kijun
Sen. The Kumo is also thickening recently, providing strong support.

Do watch the flat Kijun Sen and Senkou Span B. The next line of defence is the Kijun Sen at
1920.13.

TD Sequential Completion suggest market exhaustion. Index failed to break above the TD Risk
Level on a qualified basis.

Overall bull trend intact with a possibility of a pullback.

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APF Trading
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 14 February 2011

Astra International

Astra International completed TD Sequential Sell Countdown in Oct 2010 and prices started coming
off, dropping below the Tenkan Sen.

Currently, the Tenkan Sen had crossed below the Kijun Sen, producing a weak bearish crossover
with the Kumo providing good support.

Both the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are flat currently. This is aligned to the fact that prices would
hit into the Kumo in coming weeks, providing good support.

Monitor the price development in coming weeks. A bounce off the Kumo resulting in a Tenkan Sen
Kijun Sen bullish crossover would be a strong bullish crossover.

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APF Trading
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 14 February 2011

GENTING SINGAPORE

Genting SP has been one of our favourite stock commentary pieces of late. We mentioned weeks
back how prices are failing to break above the TD Sequential Risk Level in a qualified basis, aligning
with the high probability of a convergence of prices to the Kijun Sen.

Currently we still maintain that view as prices develop. The rubber band effect would bring prices
close to Kijun Sen. The Kumo is looking to provide good support for the stock. Watch for a rebound
off the Kijun Sen. If that happens, prices would re test the high and also the TD Risk Level at 2.37

APF Trading is a trading advisory firm offering clients advice on multi-asset trading strategies,
signals, trading systems, execution services and trading platforms. The firm also conducts research
and technical analysis with a focus on Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and DeMark Indicators.

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