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Introduction …………………………………….
Annexure 1 ………………………………………..
Analysis…………………………………………..
Conclusion………………………………………..
INTRODUCTION
The project report will help us to have an idea about the market demand estimated for the year
2011.
In this assignment we will study why how to estimate the market demand for a particular product
for the next year.
We will study how to estimate market demand for the preceding year through a questioner.
OBJECTIVE
5) A complete study of market demand for VODAFONE mobile communication service provider in Pune
for 2011.
Market Survey:-
A market survey is an important requirement for initiating any successful business. The objective of a
market survey is to collect information on various aspects of the business. This survey is a tool through
which we can minimize risk. After the market survey, the results must be analyzed in order to finalize a
business plan.
A market survey is a systematic collection, recording, analysis and interpretation of data relating to the
existing or potential market for a product or services.
A market survey is a useful tool for contact with the market.
The systematic and intelligent use of this tool can reduce risks of decision making under conditions of
uncertainty.
Through a market survey we can obtain information in the following areas:
�size of market
�pattern of demand
�buying habits and motives
�past and present trends for this or other products.
Demand forecasting
Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will
purchase. Demand forecasting involves techniques including both informal methods, such as educated
guesses, and quantitative methods, such as the use of historical sales data or current data from test markets.
Demand forecasting may be used in making pricing decisions, in assessing future capacity requirements, or
in making decisions on whether to enter a new market.
Often forecasting demand is confused with forecasting sales. But, failing to forecast demand ignores two
important phenomena. There is a lot of debate in demand-planning literature about how to measure and
represent historical demand, since the historical demand forms the basis of forecasting. The main question
is whether we should use the history of outbound shipments or customer orders or a combination of the two
as proxy for the demand.
Stock effects
The effects that inventory levels have on sales. In the extreme case of stock-outs, demand coming into your
store is not converted to sales due to a lack of availability. Demand is also untapped when sales for an item
are decreased due to a poor display location, or because the desired sizes are no longer available. For
example, when a consumer electronics retailer does not display a particular
flat-screen TV, sales for that model are typically lower than the sales for
models on display. And in fashion retailing, once the stock level of a
particular sweater falls to the point where standard sizes are no longer available, sales of that item are
diminished.
The effect of market events that are within and beyond a retailer’s control. Demand for an item will likely
rise if a competitor increases the price or if you promote the item in your weekly circular. The resulting
sales a change in demand as a result of consumers responding to stimuli that potentially drive additional
sales. Regardless of the stimuli, these forces need to be factored into planning and managed within the
demand forecast.
In this case demand forecasting uses techniques in causal modeling. Demand forecast modeling considers
the size of the market and the dynamics of market share versus competitors and its effect on firm demand
over a period of time. In the manufacturer to retailer model, promotional events are an important causal
factor in influencing demand. These promotions can be modeled with intervention models or use a
consensus to aggregate intelligence using internal collaboration with the Sales and Marketing functions.
Methods
No demand forecasting method is 100% accurate. Combined forecasts improve accuracy and reduce the
likelihood of large errors. Reference class forecasting was developed to reduce error and increase accuracy
in forecasting, including in demand forecasting.
Forecasting demand based on expert opinion. Some of the types in this method are,
Unaided judgment
Prediction market
Delphi technique
Game theory
Judgmental bootstrapping
Simulated interaction
Intentions and expectations surveys
Conjoint analysis
Expectations and intentions can be obtained using probability scales . The scale should have descriptions
such as 0 = ‘No chance, or almost no chance (1 in 100)’ to 10 = ‘Certain, or practically certain (99 in
100)’.
To forecast demand using a survey of potential consumers, the administrator should prepare an accurate
and comprehensive description of the product and conditions of sale. He should select a representative
sample of the population of interest and develop questions to elicit expectations from respondents. Bias in
responses should be assessed if possible and the data adjusted accordingly. The behavior of the population
is forecast by aggregating the survey responses.
Extrapolation Method:-
Extrapolation methods use historical data on that which one wishes to forecast. Exponential smoothing is
the most popular and cost effective of the statistical extrapolation methods. It implements the principle that
recent data should be weighted more heavily and ‘smoothes’ out cyclical fluctuations to forecast the trend.
To use exponential smoothing to extrapolate, the administrator should first clean and deseasonalise the
data, and select reasonable smoothing factors. The administrator then
calculates an average and trend from the data and uses these to derive a
forecast
Statistical extrapolations are cost effective when forecasts are needed for each of hundreds of inventory
items. They are also useful where forecasters are biased or ignorant of the situation .
Allow for seasonality when using quarterly, monthly, or daily data. Most firms do this . Seasonality
adjustments led to substantial gains in accuracy in the large-scale study of time series
Introduction
I have conducted a survey for the year 2010 by asking questions to various people who buy from various
retail stores,and also through questionnaires.
The study will help us to know the Market demand for the year 2011 of the consumer for Vodafone mobile
communication service provider in Pune.
I had taken 100 as my sample size. In this research I used the method of Questionnaire and
Interviewing.
Questionnaire was given and filled by the consumers of various age groups and the Store Manager.
Vodafone is most preferred brand and we can say that it will increase year by year.
2) Satisfaction level Vodafone users:
The table below is showing the satisfaction level of the customer in each mobile Communication
provider. (Scale is 1-Highly dissatisfied increasing as 10 –highly satisfied).
We can say that over all consumers are satisfied with Vodafone in the year 2010 and it will
continue if we will continue in providing the good services.
3) Vodafone’s Brand Loyalty:
From the following collected data we come to know that how much the customer loyal to Vodafone.
A question was asked while doing the survey that would the customer shift to another brand.
From the given data we can conclude that the no of loyal customers are with VODAFONE.
5) Suggestions on Improvement or changes:
VODAFONE
1. Hide networking areas.
2. Free internet.
3. E-mail and voice messaging.
Conclusion
We may predict that the market demand for the VODAFONE will definitely increase as we see the
previous year’s Demand and no of users we can say that consumers are happier with the brand compared to
other brands.
Questionnaire
Name:
Age:
Occupation:
Address:
Good connectivity
5. If no then which feature of the service of your service provider makes you feel dissatisfied?
Bad connectivity
No good offers
6. Had you used any connection before started using this connection?
Yes No
7. From which store you generally buy your mobile service?
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
9. Would you like to change your mobile service if you are not satisfied?
Yes No
10. What feature or services would you like to be changed or improved in the near Future? What are your
suggestions?
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Thank You.