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234 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

Blackwell Publishing IncMalden, USA


CORGCorporate Governance: An International
Review0964-8410Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2006
2006144••••ORIGINAL ARTICLESPRIVATISATION
IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIESCOPRORATE GOVERNANCE

Privatisation in Developing Countries


William L. Megginson* and Natalie L. Sutter

We survey empirical studies examining privatisation’s effects in developing economies. Most


of these studies find that privatisation yields improvements in the operating and financial
performance of divested firms, and only a handful document outright performance declines
after privatisation. Almost all studies that examine post-privatisation changes in output,
efficiency, profitability, capital investment spending and leverage document significant
increases in the first four measures and significant declines in leverage. The studies examined
here are far less unanimous regarding the impact of privatisation on employment levels in
privatised firms. Studies that explicitly address the sources of post-privatisation performance
improvement using data from multiple non-transition economies tend to find stronger
efficiency gains for firms in regulated industries, in firms that restructure operations after
privatisation, and in countries providing greater amounts of shareholder protection.

Keywords: International financial markets, economics of regulation, political economy

Introduction important because privatisation (and any


attendant regulatory changes) is often the

N ational governments have been privatis-


ing state-owned enterprises (SOEs) for
two decades now. Not surprisingly, academics
sole major component of reform processes in
developing countries.
This survey begins with a description of the
have used many pages to investigate the key objectives in our organisational strategy
implementation and aftermath of these priva- and a discussion of the methodological prob-
tisation efforts in countries around the world. lems researchers have been forced to deal
This paper surveys the research on privatisa- with. The second part then surveys the group
tion in developing countries. These studies of studies that gives the broadest assess-
employ many different empirical method- ment of privatisation’s impact. These are stud-
ologies, cover many different regions and ies that examine how privatisation impacts
time periods, and vary greatly with respect to the financial and operating performance of
the type and quality of data employed. divested firms by comparing the pre- versus
Our task, therefore, is to categorise the post-privatisation values of several account-
studies of privatisation’s effectiveness in a ing and real output measures. Almost by
way that allows us to assess the impact of definition, these studies examine only share
privatisation on different countries and on issue privatisations (SIPs), since these are the
different economic agents. Even within fairly only companies that are publicly traded and
homogeneous groupings, it is very likely independent after privatisation and thus the
*Address for correspondence: that privatisation will be viewed differently by only firms generating financial statements
Price College of Business, 307
West Brooks, 205A Adams
consumers, by SOE employees and by the that are directly comparable to pre-privatisa-
Hall, The University of Okla- newly created class of shareholders. In other tion financial values. This should still give a
homa, Noman, OK 73019-4005, words, we must assess the distributive effect of fairly accurate picture of the overall effect of
USA. Tel: (405) 325-2058;
Fax: (405) 325-7688. E-mail: privatisation as well as the effect of privatis- privatisation because SIPs account for more
wmegginson@ou.edu ation on firm performance. This is especially than two-thirds of the US$1.25 trillion of total

© 2006 The Authors


Journal compilation © 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 9600 Garsington Road,
Volume 14 Number 4 July 2006 Oxford, OX4 2DQ, UK and 350 Main St, Malden, MA, 02148, USA
PRIVATISATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 235

revenues raised by privatising governments welfare effects on consumers. Most important,


since 1977.1 The third section surveys multi- few studies control for the possible use of
national, multi-industry studies and evaluates market power by the privatised firms. That is,
the evidence presented in single-country or performance improvements could be due to
single-industry studies. Other country and greater exploitation of monopoly power –
industry studies are then examined, after which has harmful effects on allocative effi-
which the fifth section summarises tests of the ciency – rather than improved productive effi-
economic effectiveness of privatising infra- ciency. Many of the studies on performance
structure companies, and emphasises studies changes after privatisation examined the
of privatisations of telecommunications com- effects of divestiture on groups such as work-
panies, electric utilities and water and sewer- ers, but few early tests examine the effect of
age companies. The final section concludes the privatisation on consumers. This is a serious
paper and summarises the overall evidence drawback, since one of the principal reasons
of privatisation’s effectiveness in developing for launching privatisations, particularly of
economies. monopoly utilities, is consumer dissatisfaction
with the service provided by state-owned
firms. Fortunately, more recent tests have
Strategic approach to classifying and explicitly measured redistributive and market
assessing tests of privatisation’s power effects, though with varying degrees of
effectiveness success. The vast majority of the studies cited
below report increases in performance associ-
Besides difficulties in categorisation, research- ated with privatisation using at least one, and
ers must grapple with many challenging usually several performance measures. This
methodological problems in order to analyse consistency is perhaps the most telling result
objectively privatisation’s economic impact.2 we report; privatisation appears to improve
An important problem is that of data availa- performance measured in many different
bility and consistency. The amount of infor- ways, in many different countries.
mation that must be disclosed is much less in With the above caveats in mind, this survey
most countries than in the United States, and evaluates the results of dozens of studies that
these standards vary from country to country employ accounting and/or real output data
as well as over time within individual coun- to examine the impact of privatisation on
tries. Furthermore, the possibility of sample the operating efficiency, ownership structure
selection bias can arise from several sources, and/or financial performance of former SOEs
including the desire of governments to make in developing economies. Though these
privatisation “look good” by privatising the studies are detailed in the accompanying
healthiest firms first. tables, and most are discussed at least briefly
There are also many problems in measuring in the text, we also specify which studies we
performance changes that arise from using think are the most important – and why we
accounting or stock data. The problems with think this is so. A further organisational step
accounting data include determining the cor- is to present summary information for each of
rect measure of operating performance, select- the studies we examine in a series of tables.
ing an appropriate benchmark with which to Presenting this information in tabular form
compare performance, and determining the saves us from having to sequentially discuss
appropriate statistical tests to use. The finance each paper’s sample construction method-
literature has not reached a consensus on the ology, estimation procedure and empirical
ways to deal with these problems for US results in the section’s text. Instead, we can
companies, much less privatised international identify key findings that appear in many dif-
firms. Barber and Lyon (1996) argue that test ferent studies, and can discuss methodological
statistics designed to determine whether there pros and cons for entire groups of studies,
is abnormal performance using accounting rather than for each paper in turn.
data are mis-specified when the sample firms
have performed unusually well or poorly.
They suggest that sample firms must be Empirical studies comparing pre-
matched to control firms with similar pre- versus post-privatisation
event performance, which is especially diffi- performance of SIPs
cult in studies of privatised companies due to
the lack of truly comparable firms. Most of the studies summarised in this sec-
Given these difficulties, the results of each tion examine how privatisation affects firm
of the studies we discuss must be kept in per- performance by comparing pre- versus post-
spective. We also note that the studies of post- divestment data for companies privatised via
privatisation performance rarely examine the public share offering. Since the first study

© 2006 The Authors Volume 14 Number 4 July 2006


Journal compilation © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2006
236 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

to be published using this methodology is the MNR technique. These multi-national,


Megginson, Nash and van Randenborgh multi-industry studies are detailed in Table 1.
(1994), we will refer to this as the MNR meth-
odology. This approach compares three-year
average post-privatisation financial and oper- Multi-national, multi-industry
ating performance ratios to the three-year studies
pre-privatisation values of firms in different
countries and industries. They test for the Megginson, Nash and van Randenborgh
significance of median changes in ratio values (MNR) (1994) compare three-year average
in the post- versus pre-privatisation periods. post-privatisation financial and operating
They also employ binomial tests for the per- performance measures with the same three-
centage of firms changing as predicted. This year average pre-privatisation performance
empirical procedure has several obvious eco- measures for 61 companies from 18 countries
nomic and econometric drawbacks. Of these, and 32 industries that were divested during
selection bias probably causes the greatest 1961–1989. Using information obtained from
concern, since a sample of SIPs will be biased prospectuses, annual reports and secondary
towards the very largest companies sold dur- sources, they examine whether the perfor-
ing any nation’s privatisation programme. mance of these companies improves after they
Furthermore, since governments have a na- are privatised. They document economically
tural tendency to privatise the “easiest” firms and statistically significant post-privatisation
first, those SOEs sold via share offerings (par- increases in output (real sales), operating
ticularly those sold early in the process) may efficiency, profitability, capital investment
well be among the healthiest state-owned spending and dividend payments, as well as
firms.3 Another drawback of the MNR significant decreases in leverage. They find
methodology is its need to examine only no evidence of employment declines after
simple, universally available accounting vari- privatisation, and in fact the median level of
ables (such as assets, sales and net income) or employment actually increases significantly
physical units such as number of employees. (at the 10 percent level). They also find sig-
Obviously, researchers must be careful when nificant changes in the number and identity
comparing accounting information generated of firm directors around the time of initial
at different times in many different countries. privatisation.
Most of the studies cited here also ignore MNR find their basic results are unchanged
(or, at best, imperfectly account for) changes when they compare firms operating in com-
in the macro-economy or industry over the petitive versus noncompetitive (regulated
seven-year event window during which they and/or protected) industries, when they ex-
compute pre- versus post-privatisation per- amine privatisations where the government
formance changes. Finally, the studies cannot surrenders control and contrast these with
account for the impact on privatised firms of revenue privatisations where the purpose of
any regulatory or market-opening initiatives share sales is primarily to raise cash, and
that often are launched simultaneously with when they compare industrialised (OECD)
or immediately after major privatisation and developing country privatisations. When
programmes. MNR partition their data based on the
In spite of these drawbacks, studies employ- fraction of a firm’s board that is replaced,
ing the MNR methodology have two key however, they document significantly greater
advantages. First, they are the only studies performance improvements for the group of
that can examine and directly compare large firms that experience 50 percent or greater
samples of economically significant firms, turnover than for the group of companies
from different industries, privatised in differ- experiencing less dramatic change in direc-
ent countries, over different time periods. tors after divestment.
Since each firm’s performance is compared to Boubakri and Cosset (1998) analyse the
its own results a few years earlier using privatisation experience of 79 companies
simple, inflation-adjusted sales and income from 21 developing countries and 32 indus-
data (that produce results in simple per- tries divested between 1980 and 1992. They
centages), this methodology allows one to document economically and statistically sig-
efficiently aggregate multi-national, multi- nificant post-privatisation increases in output
industry results. Second, while focusing on (real sales), operating efficiency, profitability,
SIPs yields a selection bias, it also yields capital investment spending and dividend
samples that encompass the largest and payments – as well as significant decreases
most politically influential privatisations. With in leverage. They also find that employ-
these methodological caveats in mind, we turn ment typically increases, but not significantly.
to a summary of the findings of studies using The financial and operating performance

Volume 14 Number 4 July 2006 © 2006 The Authors


Journal compilation © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2006
PRIVATISATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 237

Table 1: Summary of multi-national, multi-industry empirical studies comparing pre- versus post-privatisation performance changes
for firms privatised via public share offerings

Study Sample description, study Summary of empirical findings


period and methodology and conclusions

Megginson et al. (1994) Compare 3-year average post-privatisation Document economically and statistically
financial and operating performance significant post-privatisation increases
ratios to the 3-year pre-privatisation in output (real sales), operating
values for 61 firms from 18 countries efficiency, profitability, capital
and 32 industries from 1961 to 1989. investment spending and dividend
Test significance of median changes in payments, as well as significant
post- versus pre-privatisation period. decreases in leverage. No evidence of
Also employ binomial tests for % of employment declines after privatisation,
firms changing as predicted. but significant changes in firm directors.
Privatisation improves firm
performance.
Boubakri and Cosset (1998) Compare 3-year average post-privatisation Document economically and statistically
financial and operating performance significant post-privatisation increases
ratios to the 3-year pre-privatisation in output (real sales), operating
values for 79 companies from 21 efficiency, profitability, capital
developing countries and 32 industries investment spending, dividend
over the period 1980–1992. Tests for the payments and employment – as well
significance of median changes in ratio as significant decreases in leverage.
values in post- versus pre-privatisation Performance improvements are
period. Also employ binomial tests for generally even larger than those
percentage of firms changing as documented by Megginson et al. (1994).
predicted.
D’Souza and Megginson Document offering terms, method of sale Document economically and statistically
(1999) and ownership structure resulting from significant post-privatisation increases
privatisation of 78 companies from 10 in output (real sales), operating
developing and 15 developed countries efficiency and profitability, as well as
over the period 1990–1994. Then significant decreases in leverage. Capital
compare 3-year average post- investment spending increases – but
privatisation financial and operating insignificantly, while employment
performance ratios to the 3-year pre- declines significantly. More of the firms
privatisation values for a sub-sample of privatised in the 1990s are from telecoms
26 firms with sufficient data. Tests for the and other regulated industries.
significance of median changes in ratio Privatisation improves firm
values in post- versus pre-privatisation performance.
period. Also binomial tests for % of firms
changing as predicted.
Dewenter and Malatesta Compare pre- versus post-privatisation Document significant increases in
(2001) performance of 63 large, high- profitability (using net income) and
information companies divested during significant decreases in leverage and
1981–1994 over both short-term [(+1 to labour intensity (employees ÷ sales) over
+3) vs (−3 to −1)] and long-term [(+1 to both short- and long-term comparison
+5) vs (−10 to −1)] horizons. Also examine horizons. Operating profits increase prior
long-run stock return performance of to privatisation, but not after. Document
privatised firms and compare the relative significantly positive long-term (1–5
performance of a large sample (1500 years) abnormal stock returns, mostly
firm-years) of state and privately owned concentrated in Hungary, Poland and
firms during 1975, 1985 and 1995. the UK. Results also strongly indicate
that private firms out-perform state-
owned firms.

© 2006 The Authors Volume 14 Number 4 July 2006


Journal compilation © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2006
238 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

Table 1: Continued

Study Sample description, study Summary of empirical findings


period and methodology and conclusions

Otchere (2002) Examines stock price reaction of 314 Find that rivals react negatively to
industry counterparts to the privatisation announcements, losing
privatisation announcement for 121 1.72% (1.64%) of their value over the
firms to be divested via share offering to 3-day (5-day) period surrounding the
infer the expected impact of privatisation announcement. Also find the reaction of
on the performance of firms in 29 rival firms in developing countries to be
developed and developing countries and stronger than in developed countries,
28 industries. and the reaction of rivals to a full
privatisation announcement is larger
than that of a partial privatisation
announcement.
Boubakri et al. (2002) Investigate the role of ownership structure Document that private ownership tends to
and investor protection in corporate concentrate over time after divestment,
governance using a sample of 170 firms and that privatisation indeed results
from 26 developing countries that were in a relinquishment of control by the
privatised over 1980–1997. Specifically privatising government over three years
examine what ownership structure after initial sale. Much of the decrease in
results from privatisation, and how it state ownership is absorbed by foreign
evolves subsequently; how the level of and local institutional investors, while
ownership protection impacts post- the average stake held by individuals is
privatisation ownership structure; and less important. Also find that interaction
how ownership structure and investor between legal protection and ownership
protection relate to firm performance. concentration has a significant negative
effect on firm performance, suggesting
that ownership concentration matters
more in countries with weak legal
protection.
Boubakri and Cosset (2002) Examine pre- versus post-privatisation Document significantly increased capital
performance of 16 African firms spending by privatised firms, but find
privatised through public share offering only insignificant changes in
during the period 1989–1996. Also profitability, efficiency, output and
summarise findings of three other leverage.
studies pertaining to privatisation in
developing countries.
Laurin et al. (2004) Investigate underpricing of SIPs using a Find underpricing to the same extent as
sample of 104 firms from 25 countries. that found in private offerings (17% on
Investigate whether there is average), with much greater pricing in
underpricing and the causes of developing countries. Also find that
underpricing. governments underprice to serve both
revenue maximising and political goals.
Otchere (2005) Examines operating and stock price Find that privatisation announcements
performance of 18 privatised banks and lead to negative abnormal returns for
their 28 rivals in low- and middle-income rival banks. When the announcement
countries. is for a subsequent tranche sale, the
reaction is even more negative. Also find
that privatised banks underperform the
market in the long run. Also find that the
operating performance of privatised
banks increases slightly.

Volume 14 Number 4 July 2006 © 2006 The Authors


Journal compilation © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2006
PRIVATISATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 239

Table 1: Continued

Study Sample description, study Summary of empirical findings


period and methodology and conclusions

Boubakri et al. (2005a) Examine ownership structure and investor Find that immediately following
protection using a sample of 209 firms privatisation, new firm owners are local
from 25 developing countries and 14 institutions, individuals and then
industrialised nations from 1980 to 2001. foreign investors, with employees
owning a small percentage. Employees’
stake falls over time. In the three years
following privatisation, local institutions
and foreign investors increase their
ownership percentages while the
proportion owned by individuals falls.
Tunç (2005) Examines the effects of privatisation in 17 Finds that the government’s financial
developing countries in Asia and Latin situation and the “degree of political
America from 1988 to 1999. opportunity” in the country play an
important role in the implementation
schedule of privatisation programmes.
Secure governments with a need to
finance public debt will privatise on a
much larger scale.

improvements they find are generally even as a fraction of sales after privatisation –
larger than those documented by MNR. though the absolute level of capital spending
Several years after the publication of their does increase significantly.
original study, Boubakri and Cosset (2002) DM’s sub-sample analyses also yield impor-
analyse Africa’s privatisation experience using tant results. Output, operating efficiency and
a sample of 16 African firms divested through dividend payments increase significantly for
public share offering during the period 1989– every sub-sample, while profitability increases
1996. They document significantly increased and leverage decreases significantly in all but
capital spending by privatised firms, but find three cases. Employment decreases signifi-
only insignificant changes in profitability, effi- cantly only for firms that retain their CEO
ciency, output and leverage. and for firms headquartered in industrial-
D’Souza and Megginson (DM) (1999) ex- ised countries. Additionally, DM test for sig-
amine the success of share issue privatisation nificant differences between dichotomous
programmes in developing and industrialised sub-sample pairs using Kruskal-Wallis tests,
economies during the period 1990–1996. Their and these reveal that performance improves
sample includes 85 companies from 28 coun- significantly more when voting control is
tries (13 developing and 15 industrialised). relinquished by a divesting government and
They find persuasive evidence that the mean for firms in non-competitive industries, but
and median levels of profitability, real sales, that employment declines significantly more
operating efficiency and payout of the full- for companies headquartered in developed
sample firms increase significantly, in both countries.
statistical and economic terms, after privati- Dewenter and Malatesta (2001) estimate the
sation. In fact, the significance levels of the effects of government ownership and privati-
profitability, output and efficiency variables in sation using a sample of large firms from three
DM are much greater than the earlier MNR separate time periods (1975, 1985 and 1995).
study and are similar to those in Boubakri and They estimate regressions explaining profit-
Cosset (1998). DM also document significantly ability after controlling for firm size, location,
lower leverage ratios for their firms after industry and the business cycle. They find
divestiture. In contrast to MNR, DM find that net income-based profitability measures
insignificant changes in employment (as do increase significantly after privatisation, but
Boubakri and Cosset) and in capital spending operating income-based measures do not.

© 2006 The Authors Volume 14 Number 4 July 2006


Journal compilation © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2006
240 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

Instead, they find that operating profits in- firms are to be privatised via share offering in
crease prior to divestiture, supporting the 29 developed and developing countries and 28
idea that privatisation can have a significant industries. He finds that rivals react negatively
anticipation effect. to privatisation announcements, losing 1.72
Boubakri et al. (2002) investigate the role of percent (1.64 percent) of their value over
ownership structure and investor protection in the 3-day (5-day) period surrounding the
corporate governance using a sample of 170 announcement. He also finds that the reac-
firms from 26 developing countries privatised tion of rival firms in developing countries is
over the years 1980–1997. After documenting stronger than in developed countries, and
that privatisation yields performance im- the reaction of rivals to a full privatisation
provements for this group of companies announcement is larger than that to a partial
comparable to that documented in previous privatisation announcement. As discussed in
studies, they specifically examine what own- the previous section, Otchere (2005) found
ership structure results from privatisation, and similar results in his examination of rival
measure how it evolves subsequently. They banks in developing countries.
also study how the level of ownership protec- Laurin et al. (2004) investigate underpricing
tion impacts post-privatisation ownership of SIPs. Their sample consists of 104 SIPs from
structure, and how ownership structure and 25 countries. They use regression analysis and
investor protection relate to firm performance. find that governments underprice to the same
They document that private ownership of a extent as that found in private offerings. Many
privatised firm’s stock tends to concentrate researchers argue that revenue is an important
over time after the initial offering, and that goal of SIPs (e.g. Lopez-de-Silanes, 1997;
privatisation indeed results in the divesting Yarrow, 1999), so it is somewhat surprising to
government relinquishing control over the see underpricing to this extent. They find that
three years after initial sale. Foreign and local governments underprice by 17 percent, on
institutional investors absorb a large fraction average, with much greater underpricing in
of the shares divested by the state, while indi- developing rather than developed economies.
vidual shareholdings remain relatively unim- The authors also investigate the reasons for
portant. They also find that the interaction underpricing and find that both revenue and
between legal protection and ownership con- political goals drive the underpricing.
centration has a significant negative effect on Tunç (2005) examines the effects of privati-
firm performance, suggesting that ownership sation in 17 developing countries in Asia and
concentration matters more in countries with Latin America. His data span from 1988 to
weak legal protection. 1999. He uses panel-corrected standard errors
In a similar study, Boubakri et al. (2005a) in an OLS framework with observations at the
examine ownership structure and investor country level. He finds that the government’s
protection in post-privatisation firms using a financial situation and the “degree of political
sample of 209 firms from 25 emerging market opportunity” in the country play an impor-
countries and 14 industrialised countries from tant role in the implementation schedule of
1980 to 2001. Their results regarding owner- privatisation programmes. Secure govern-
ship differ from the earlier study. Immediately ments with a need to finance public debt will
following privatisation, the new firm owners privatise on a much larger scale.
are local institutions, individuals and then
foreign investors. Employees own a small
percentage, and their stake declines over time. Single-country and
In the next three years, local institutions and single-industry studies
foreign investors increase their ownership
percentages while the proportion owned by Although the multi-national, multi-industry
individuals falls. studies using the MNR methodology have
In addition to studying accounting meas- proven most influential, numerous studies
ures and technical measures of efficiency, have also employed this methodology to
there are two other methods of examining examine privatisation’s effectiveness in pro-
privatisation’s impact on firm performance. moting performance improvements either in
The first is to study how the privatisation a single industry or a single country. Several
announcement impacts the stock prices of of these studies initially employ the MNR
competitive firms and the second is to test methodology to estimate the magnitudes of
how privatisation impacts research and devel- privatisation-related performance changes,
opment intensity and productivity. Otchere then use more sophisticated panel data regres-
(2002) uses this same methodology to examine sion methods to identify the specific sources of
the stock price reaction of 314 industry the performance changes. These studies are
counterparts to the announcement that 121 summarised in Table 2.

Volume 14 Number 4 July 2006 © 2006 The Authors


Journal compilation © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2006
PRIVATISATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 241

Table 2: Summary of single country or single industry empirical studies comparing pre- versus post-privatisation performance changes
for firms privatised via public share offerings in developing countries

Study Sample description, study Summary of empirical findings


period and methodology and conclusions

Macquieira and Zurita Compare pre- versus post-privatisation Unadjusted results virtually identical
(1996) performance of 22 Chilean companies to MNR: significant increases in
privatised from 1984 to 1989. Use output, profitability, employment,
Megginson, Nash and van investment and dividend payments.
Randenborgh (MNR) methodology After adjusting for market movements,
to perform analysis first without however, the changes in output,
adjusting for overall market movements employment and liquidity are no
(as in MNR), then with an adjustment longer significant, and leverage
for contemporaneous changes. increases significantly.
Verbrugge et al. (1999) Study offering terms and share ownership Document moderate performance
results for 65 banks fully or partially improvements in OECD countries.
privatised from 1981 to 1996. Then Ratios proxying for profitability, fee
compare pre and post-privatisation income (non-interest income as fraction
performance changes for 32 banks in of total) and capital adequacy increase
OECD countries and 5 in developing significantly; leverage ratio declines
countries. significantly. Document large, ongoing
state ownership and significantly
positive initial returns to IPO investors.
Omran (2001) Studies performance changes for 69 Find that profitability, operating
Egyptian companies privatised between efficiency, capital spending, dividends
1994 and 1998. Of these, 33 were majority and liquidity increase significantly after
sales (>50% ownership), 18 were partial privatisation, while leverage,
sales, 12 were sold to employee employment and financial risk
shareholding associations (ESAs) and 6 (measured as the inverse of times
were sold to anchor investors. interest earned) decline significantly.
Performance changes pervasive across
subgroups, but some evidence that full
privatisation works better than partial,
and that sales to ESAs work better than
others.
Omran (2002) Perform similar study to Omran (2001), but Find that SOEs’ performance also
also compare performance of privatised improves significantly during post-
companies to a matched set of 54 firms privatisation period, and that
that remained state owned. privatised firms did not perform any
better than SOEs.
Okten and Arin (2002) Test effect of privatisation on firm Document that productivity, capacity
efficiency and technology choice using utilisation, output and investment
panel data set of 23 Turkish cement firms significantly increase after
privatised between 1989 and 1998. privatisation, while employment,
Employ MNR tests first, then panel data per unit costs and prices decline
regression to explore determinants of significantly. Capacity increases
performance changes. insignificantly. Panel regression shows
output, labour productivity, capital
and capital to labour ratio increase
significantly, while employment falls.
Per unit costs and prices also fall.
Privatisation clearly induces
technology shift.

© 2006 The Authors Volume 14 Number 4 July 2006


Journal compilation © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2006
242 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

Table 2: Continued

Study Sample description, study Summary of empirical findings


period and methodology and conclusions

Sun and Tong (2002) Compare pre- vs post-privatisation Find that privatised companies increase
financial and operating performance of a their absolute level of profits three-fold,
sample of 24 Malaysian firms divested more than double real sales, and also
via public share offering by the end of significantly increase dividends and
1997. Employ MNR tests first, then panel reduce leverage. Results are robust
data regression to further examine across various sub-samples. Stocks of
sources of performance changes. privatised firms earn normal returns
(insignificantly different from market
index). Regression analysis shows that
institutional investors and directors
have a positive impact on privatised
firm performance, and that option
schemes, rather than direct
remuneration, give better incentives to
managers.
Feng et al. (2002) Test whether privatisation improves Find no significant change after
financial and operating performance privatisation in any variable except
of 31 Singaporean companies divested output (significant increase) using
through public share offering between MNR methods. Then use regression
1975 and 1998. Employ MNR tests first, analysis to show that output and
then panel data regression to further leverage improve but efficiency
examine sources of performance deteriorates after privatisation.
changes. Conclude that there is little
performance improvement after
ownership change because Singaporean
SOEs were unusually well managed
before divestment.
Fong and Lam (2004) Examine privatisation in the Find that privatisation only boosts
manufacturing (96 firms) and basic performance of firms in the competitive
material (62 firms) industries in China manufacturing industry, not in the
from 1997 to 1999. industry closely guarded by the
government. Also find that
privatisation to institutions harms the
firms in the more competitive industry
but does not affect the performance of
firms in the closely guarded industry.
Jia et al. (2005) Investigate the partial privatisation of 53 Find that real net profit significantly
Chinese firms from 1993 to 2002 that increased for the majority of firms,
were listed on the Hong Kong Stock return on sales significantly declined on
Exchange. Use MNR methodology. average and real output increased. Also
find that these firms underperform the
Hong Kong market over the long run.
Conclude that listing on an established
stock exchange and allowing foreign
investors to purchase shares improves
the performance of SOEs.
Omran (2005) Investigates the underpricing and long-run Finds positive abnormal returns initially
performance of 53 Egyptian SIPs. and over the first year, with negative
abnormal returns over a three-year and
five-year horizon.

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PRIVATISATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 243

Table 2: Continued

Study Sample description, study Summary of empirical findings


period and methodology and conclusions

Megginson (2005) Surveys the empirical literature examining Concludes that privatised banks are more
bank privatisations. efficient than state-owned banks, but
the gain is small compared to
privatisation of firms in other
industries. Also concludes that
privatisation alone is not enough. Banks
must be able to run independently of
state influence.
Clarke et al. (2005) Summarise the results of several papers. Conclude that privatisation of banks
improves bank efficiency. Efficiency is
increased when the bank is fully
privatised, when strategic investors are
the owners, with increased competition,
and when foreign banks take part in the
privatisation.
Boubakri et al. (2005b) Examine the post-privatisation Find that profitability generally increased
performance of 81 banks in 22 (but improvement varies by country).
developing countries. Also find that banks owned by local
industrial groups are more exposed to
credit risk. Banks owned by local
industrial groups and foreign investors
enjoy increased efficiency.
Boehmer et al. (2005) Examine how political, institutional and Find that political factors affect bank
economic factors affect a government’s privatisation in developing countries
decision to privatise banks using a panel but not developed countries. Also find
of 101 countries from 1982 to 2000. that economic factors affect bank
privatisation in all countries.
Haber (2005) Examines bank privatisation in Mexico Finds that neither of the two phases of
from 1991 to 2003. reform (privatisation of banks; reform
of surrounding institutions and
opening banks to foreign investment)
has resulted in a thriving Mexican
banking industry.
Otchere (2005) Examines operating and stock price Find that privatisation announcements
performance of 18 privatised banks and lead to negative abnormal returns for
their 28 rivals in low- and middle- rival banks. When the announcement
income countries. is for a subsequent tranche sale, the
reaction is even more negative. Also
find that privatised banks
underperform the market in the long
run. Also find that the operating
performance of privatised banks
increases slightly.
Beck et al. (2005) Examine the banking industry in Nigeria Find that privatisation has a positive
for the period 1990–2001. effect when the government
relinquished complete control but not
when the government maintains even a
minority interest.

© 2006 The Authors Volume 14 Number 4 July 2006


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244 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

Table 2: Continued

Study Sample description, study Summary of empirical findings


period and methodology and conclusions

Berger et al. (2005) Examine bank performance in Argentina in Find that privatised banks strongly
the 1990s. Their tests include the static, outperformed state-owned banks. Also
selection and dynamic effects of find that moving from state-owned to
ownership in the same model. private increased the performance of
individual banks.
Beck et al. (2005) Examine the privatisation of Brazilian Find that restructuring (the only method
banks in one of four ways: (1) where the federal government is not
liquidation, (2) privatisation by the completely responsible for the costs) is
federal government, (3) privatisation by the least successful method of reform.
the state governments and (4) Conclude that the state governments
restructuring. were causing all of the problems.
Nakane and Weintraub Study total factor productivity of Brazilian Find that privatisation has increased
(2005) banks from 1990 to 2002. productivity.

Macquieira and Zurita (1996) examine matched set of 54 firms that remain state
Chile’s privatisation experience using data owned. He finds that SOEs’ performance
from 22 companies divested via public share also improves significantly during the post-
offering between 1984 and 1989. They first test privatisation period, and that privatised firms
for performance changes without adjusting for did not perform any better than SOEs. It is
overall improvements in the Chilean economy thus unclear if the performance improvement
(as in MNR), then with an adjustment for documented for privatised firms is merely a
changes experienced by other Chilean firms reflection of an overall improvement in the
over the study period. Their unadjusted re- Egyptian economy during the study period, if
sults are virtually identical to MNR, in that the improvement in the performance of state-
they document significant increases in output, owned enterprises is itself due to the demon-
profitability, employment, investment and stration (and perhaps anticipation) effect pro-
dividend payments. After adjusting for mar- vided by Egypt’s privatisation programme,
ket movements, however, the changes in out- or if both sets of firms benefit from a general
put, employment and liquidity are no longer opening of the Egyptian economy during the
significant, and they find that average firm 1990s. In any case, it is clear that privatisation
leverage increases significantly. does not harm the divested firms. In a third
Omran (2001) studies performance changes study, Omran (2005) investigates the under-
for 69 Egyptian companies privatised between pricing and long-run performance of Egyptian
1994 and 1998. Of these, 33 were majority sales SIPs. In their sample of 53 firms, he finds pos-
(where more than 50 percent of ownership is itive abnormal returns (over Egyptian stock
transferred), 18 were partial sales, 12 were sold market indices) initially and over the first year,
to employee shareholding associations (ESAs) with negative returns over a three-year and
and 6 were sold to anchor investors. Omran five-year horizon. He concludes that because
finds that profitability, operating efficiency, of uncertainty and oversubscription investors
capital spending, dividends and liquidity enjoy early returns, but eventually this uncer-
increase significantly after privatisation, while tainty decreases and returns fall.
leverage, employment and financial risk Okten and Arin (2002) test the effect of
(measured as the inverse of times interest privatisation on firm efficiency and technol-
earned) decline significantly. He documents ogy choice using a panel data set of 23 Turkish
pervasive performance improvements across cement firms privatised between 1989 and
subgroups, but also finds that full privati- 1998. They examine a single industry in order
sation works better than partial divestment, to specifically measure how privatisation im-
and that sales to ESAs work better than others. pacts the choice of production technology.
In a second study, Omran (2002) compares They develop a simple theoretical model en-
the performance of privatised companies to a dogenising the technology choice by elected

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PRIVATISATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 245

politicians running SOEs, and predict that closely guarded by the government. In addi-
SOEs are likely to be under-capitalised and tion, they find that it matters whether the
over-staffed in a labour-abundant country like shares are sold to individuals or to institu-
Turkey. They then use this model to predict tions. Privatisation to institutions harms the
how switching to private ownership will im- firms in the more competitive industry but
pact technology choice. As predicted, they find does not affect the performance of firms in the
that privatised companies switch to more closely guarded companies.
capital-intensive production processes. These Jia et al. (2005) study the partial privatisation
new processes significantly reduce per unit of 53 Chinese SOEs from 1993 to 2002. These
costs and prices, and substantially raise labour newly privatised companies were partially
productivity and overall output. They also privatised by listing on the Hong Kong Stock
document that capacity utilisation and invest- Exchange. They conclude that listing on an
ment increase significantly after privatisation, established stock market and allowing foreign
while employment declines significantly and investors to purchase shares improves the
capacity increases insignificantly. In sum, performance of the SOEs. They first use MNR
privatisation induces a shift towards more methodology and find that real net profit sig-
capital-intensive production technology by nificantly increased for the majority of firms,
divested firms. while return on sales insignificantly declined
Sun and Tong (2002) compare the pre- versus on average. Real output increased signifi-
post-privatisation financial and operating per- cantly. They also find that these H-share firms
formance of a sample of 24 Malaysian firms underperform the Hong Kong market over the
divested via public share offering by the end long run. They conclude that the issuance of
of 1997. Like Okten and Arin (2002), they H-shares improves the performance of former
employ MNR tests first, then use panel data Chinese SOEs. However, they caution that
regression to examine the sources of per- until H-shares comprise a higher percentage of
formance changes. Sun and Tong find that ownership, the full benefits of privatisation
privatised companies increase their absolute will not be achieved.
level of profits three-fold, more than double The problems inherent in a state-owned
real sales, and also significantly increase divi- banking industry have led many countries
dends and reduce leverage. Results are robust to at least consider privatising state-owned
across various sub-samples. In addition, stocks banks. Wherever and however banks are
of privatised firms earn normal returns (insig- privatised, divesting governments all face a
nificantly different from the market index). common set of concerns and issues. These
Feng et al. (2002) test whether privatisation include the following: (1) the type of privati-
improves the financial and operating perfor- sation process to utilise, (2) whether and how
mance of 31 Singaporean companies divested to break up the government-owned banking
through public share offering between 1975 system, which is especially difficult (but
and 1998. They find no significant change after necessary) in the all too common case of a
privatisation in any variable except output monobank system, (3) transferring ownership
(which significantly increases) using MNR claims to the private (domestic or foreign) sec-
methods. They then use regression analysis to tor, (4) dealing with an extremely low quality
show that output and leverage improve after loan portfolio, much of which is in default –
privatisation, but that efficiency deteriorates. albeit likely to be unrecognised on a financial
Finally, they conclude that there is little perfor- reporting basis, (5) ensuring an enhanced level
mance improvement after ownership change of managerial talent in the system, and (6) ulti-
because Singaporean SOEs were unusually mately attracting outside, often foreign, capi-
well managed before divestment. tal and expertise to the banking system.
Fong and Lam (2004) examine privatisation Verbrugge, Megginson and Owens (VMO)
in the manufacturing and basic material (1999) investigate bank privatisations that use
industries in China. They compare the perfor- public security offerings as the divestment
mance of firms in the same industry from 1997 mechanism. VMO discuss the terms of 58 ini-
to 1999. They control for firm size and firm tial unseasoned and 34 seasoned offerings
financial condition at the end of 1996. Their involving 65 banks from 12 high information
final sample consists of 96 manufacturing economies and 13 emerging economies. They
firms and 62 basic material firms. These indus- find that bank IPOs tend to be very large, with
tries are at opposite ends of the spectrum in a median offering size of nearly US$300
terms of the level of competition, with manu- million in high information economies and
facturing enjoying a high level of competition. US$140 million in emerging economies. They
The authors find that privatisation only boosts also document significantly positive average
performance for firms in the competitive (median) initial returns of 30.5 percent (15.9
manufacturing industry, not in the industry percent) for investors, but find that seasoned

© 2006 The Authors Volume 14 Number 4 July 2006


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246 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

issues are not significantly underpriced. Pri- study the effects of bank privatisations on
vatisation leads to only limited improve- other banks in the economy. They find that
ment in bank profitability, operating efficiency, these rival banks experience negative ab-
leverage and non-interest revenue. Substantial normal returns when announcements of bank
government ownership of banks remains even privatisations are made. Beck et al. (2005)
after privatisation, and in only a few cases is study bank privatisations in Nigeria. They
the government’s stake completely eliminated find positive effect of privatisation when the
at the IPO stage, or even in subsequent sea- government relinquishes complete control but
soned offerings. VMO suggest that continued not when the government maintains even a
significant government ownership of banks minority interest.
raises serious problems for establishing mar- Berger et al. (2005) examine bank perfor-
ket-oriented governance and decision-making mance in Argentina. They find that privatised
systems in the banks. banks strongly outperformed state-owned
Megginson (2005) surveys the empirical banks. The same banks enjoyed strong im-
literature and concludes that private banks provement by moving from state-owned to
are more efficient than state-owned banks, private. Their tests include static, selection
but the gain is small compared to privatisation and dynamic effects of ownership in the same
of other industries. But bank privatisation model in order to get a complete picture of
alone is not enough: the banks must be able bank performance. Beck et al. (2005) examine
to be run independently of state influence. Brazilian banks. The federal government insti-
Clarke et al. (2005) summarise the results of tuted a plan to privatise state-owned banks.
several other papers to conclude that the pri- There were four choices about the future of
vatisation of banks indeed improves bank the state banks: (1) liquidation, (2) privatisa-
efficiency. This efficiency is increased when tion by the federal government, (3) priva-
the bank is fully privatised, when strategic in- tisation by the state government and (4)
vestors are the owners, with increased com- restructuring. Under the first three choices,
petition and when foreign banks take part in the federal government is responsible for all
the privatisation. Boubakri et al. (2005b) study of the costs, while under the fourth option, the
81 privatisations in 22 developing countries federal government is responsible for half of
and find that profitability generally increased the costs. They find that restructuring is the
under privatisation, but the improvement least successful method of reform. They inter-
varied by country. The change in efficiency, pret this as evidence that the state govern-
risk exposure and capitalisation in the post- ments were causing all of the problems.
privatisation period depends on who controls Nakane and Weintraub (2005) echo these
the bank. Banks owned by local industrial results (increased productivity) in their study
groups are more exposed to credit risk, and of banking total factor productivity in Brazil.
banks owned by local industrial groups and They find that privatisation has increased
foreign investors enjoy an increase in effi- productivity.
ciency. Over a longer period of time, though, The studies discussed in this section yield
all banks experience increased efficiency and consistently positive results on the effective-
exposure to credit risk. Boehmer et al. (2005) ness of privatisation in promoting improve-
use a panel of 101 countries from 1982 to 2000 ments in the financial and operating per-
and find that political and economic factors formance of divested companies. Most of
affect the likelihood of bank privatisation. the studies cited here document economically
Haber (2005) examines bank privatisation in and statistically significant post-privatisation
Mexico from 1991 to 2003. The Mexican bank- increases in real sales (output), profitability,
ing reform took place in two main stages. The efficiency (sales per employee) and capital
first involved the privatisation of the banks spending, coupled with significant declines in
unaccompanied by an improvement in the leverage. That these benefits are achieved
institutions that surround banks. The second without systematically reducing employment
phase involved reform of the surrounding also suggests that privatisation yields impor-
institutions and opening the banks to foreign tant social benefits. In sum, the weight of
investment. Neither of the phases resulted in evidence in these studies clearly indicates: (1)
a thriving Mexican banking industry. that privatisation improves the operating and
Otchere (2005) studies 21 SIPs (of 18 banks) financial performance of newly divested firms,
from nine developing countries and finds only (2) that these improvements are the result of
modest improvement in bank performance socially beneficial improvements in produc-
after privatisation. Additionally, privatised tive efficiency and entrepreneurial effort and
banks underperform the market in the long (3) that privatisation “works” in a wide variety
run. They also examine rival banks (publicly of countries, industries and competitive
traded banks that were not formerly SOEs) to environments.

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PRIVATISATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 247

Country and industry studies summary of these Latin American studies are
in Table 3.
For a variety of reasons – in particular, the Ramamurti (1996) presents an essentially
availability of high quality data – most of the descriptive analysis of seven privatisation pro-
early academic privatisation studies focused grammes (four telecom, two airline and one
on the experience of developed countries. In toll-road) in Latin America during the period
spite of the fact that the one major exception 1987–1991. He also discusses the economic
to this pattern, Boubakri and Cosset (1998), issues involved in developing these pro-
yielded results that were very similar to those grammes, and describes the methods used
documented for industrialised countries, by privatising governments to overcome the
many commentators believed that privatisa- bureaucratic and ideological opposition to
tion should yield materially different effects in divestiture. Ramamurti concludes that priva-
less developed countries. tisation was very positive for the telecom com-
Four surveys of privatisation’s impact in panies, partly due to the scope for making new
developing countries are available. All four positive-NPV technology and capital invest-
generally conclude that privatisation has been ments, but also due to the attractiveness of the
an economically effective policy, but each in its offer terms proffered by the divesting govern-
own way cautions about distributional, politi- ments. There was much less scope for pro-
cal, regulatory and/or market power prob- ductivity improvements for the airlines and
lems that can result if all of the components roads, and little improvement was observed.
of a privatisation programme are not im- Ramamurti (1997) also examines the 1990
plemented correctly. First, Kikeri and Nellis restructuring and privatisation of Ferrocarilla
(2002) assess the empirical evidence examin- Argentino, the Argentine national freight and
ing privatisation in competitive sectors. These passenger railway system. He documents a
authors also provide an appendix summaris- nearly incredible 370 percent improvement in
ing the results of over 100 published and labour productivity and an equally striking
working papers that have examined the effec- (and not unrelated) 78.7 percent decline in
tiveness of privatising companies that operate employment, from 92,000 to 18,682 workers.4
in competitive industries. Second, Birdsall and Operating subsidies declined almost to zero,
Nellis (2003) assess the distributional impact and consumers benefited from expanded and
of privatisation in developing countries. As better quality service and lower costs. Rama-
do several other commentators, Birdsall and murti concludes that these performance
Nellis try to understand why the public per- improvements could not have been achieved
ception of privatisation has become so bad in without privatisation.
developing countries, when the actual em- One of the very best empirical privatisation
pirical evidence is on balance so favourable, studies examining a developing country, by
especially regarding improved access to vital La Porta and López-de-Silanes (1999), per-
utility services in the vast majority of coun- forms an in-depth analysis of Mexico’s
tries. Unfortunately, neither Birdsall and privatisation programme. Specifically, they
Nellis nor the other commentators can provide test whether the performance of 218 state
a fully satisfactory explanation for privatisa- enterprises privatised through June 1992
tion’s growing unpopularity. The third and improves after divestment. Using detailed,
fourth survey articles summarise the empirical firm-level data, they compare the perfor-
evidence on privatisation’s impact in two key mance of the divested companies with indus-
regions, Latin America and Africa, and this is try-matched firms, and find that the former
why we discuss these surveys in the next two Mexican SOEs rapidly close a large perfor-
sections. McKenzie and Mookherjee’s (2003) mance gap with industry-matched private
survey of the distributive impact of privatisa- firms that had existed prior to divestment.
tion in Latin America provides an excellent These firms go from being highly unprofitable
summary of the literature dealing with the before privatisation to being very profitable
massive privatisation programmes executed thereafter. Output increases by 54.3 percent, in
by this region’s governments since 1989, while spite of a reduced level of investment spend-
Nellis (2005) performs a similar survey of ing, and sales per employee roughly doubles.
African privatisation studies. The privatised firms reduce (blue and white-
collar) employment by half, but those work-
ers who remain are paid significantly more.
Studies of privatisation in Latin America The authors attribute most of the performance
We begin our discussion of individual privati- improvement to productivity gains resulting
sation studies with those examining Latin from better incentives, with at most one-third
American countries and companies, and then of the improvement being attributable to
survey African and South Asian studies. A lower employment costs.

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248 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

Table 3: Summary of country- and industry-specific empirical studies of privatisation in Latin America

Study Sample description, study Summary of empirical findings


period and methodology and conclusions

Ramamurti (1996) Surveys studies of four telecom, two airline Concludes privatisation very positive for
and one toll-road privatisation telecoms, partly due to scope for
programmes in Latin America during technology, capital investment and
period 1987–1991. Also discusses political attractiveness of offer terms. Much
economic issues and methods used to less scope for productivity improvements
overcome bureaucratic and ideological for airlines and roads, and little
opposition to divestiture. improvement observed.
Ramamurti (1997) Examines restructuring and privatisation Documents a 370% improvement in labor
of Ferrocarilla Argentinos, the national productivity and a 78.7% decline in
railroad, in 1990. Tests whether employment (from 92,000 to 19,682).
productivity, employment and need for Services were expanded and improved,
operating subsidies (equal to 1% of GDP and delivered at lower cost to consumers.
in 1990) change significantly after Need for operating subsidies largely
divestiture. eliminated.
La Porta and López-de- Tests whether performance of 218 SOEs Output of privatised firms increased 54.3%,
Silanes (1999) privatised through June 1992 improves while employment declined by half
after divestment. Compares performance (though wages for remaining workers
with industry-matched firms, and splits increased). Firms achieved a 24 percentage
improvements documented between point increase in operating profitability,
industry- and firm-specific influences. eliminating need for subsidies equal to
12.7% of GDP. Higher product prices
explain 5% of improvement; transfers
from laid-off workers, 31%, and incentive-
related productivity gains account for
remaining 64%.
Pombo and Ramirez Performs ex post measuring and Panel data analysis finds very positive
(2003) econometric analysis of 30 large results for privatised manufacturing
Colombian manufacturing firms and 33 firms. Total factor productivity indices
power generation plants privatised increase from 0.27 to 0.50 points, while
during 1993–1998 period. Employ both profit rates increase by 1.2 percentage
panel data regression analysis and MNR points. Productive efficiency in power
matched pre- vs post-privatisation tests. production not systematically related to
ownership changes, once other factors
accounted for.
Estache (2003) Asks whether Argentina’s 1990s utilities He finds that privatisation, per se, was quite
privatisation programme was a cure or a successful: it raised significant revenues
disease. Certainly, the privatisations of for the state and the new private operators
Argentina’s electricity, gas, water and increased efficiency and service levels
sanitation and telecommunications significantly – without significantly
utilities are today the object of intense raising the rates they charged. The rates
anger within the country, but Estache charged consumers, however, increased
attempts to determine whether this anger significantly, since the government
is appropriate. He first notes that exploited the new ownership structure to
privatisation occurred just before the impose indirect taxes that it could not
country was gripped by a massive impose through direct levies. Once the
political and economic collapse and he economic crisis began, government
tries to separate the impact of actions discriminated against the
privatisation from the overwhelming privatised companies and foreign
impact of the collapse. operators were vilified as exploiters when
they tried to raise fees in line with inflation
and devaluation.

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PRIVATISATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 249

Table 3: Continued

Study Sample description, study Summary of empirical findings


period and methodology and conclusions

McKenzie and Present an overview of the results of a Find strong evidence that privatisation leads
Mookherjee (2003) project evaluating the distributive impact to significant increases in access to water,
of privatisation in Argentina, Bolivia, telephone and electricity services in all
Mexico and Nicaragua. This project uses four countries. Find gains in access are
existing survey data to try to estimate the concentrated among lower income
effects of privatisation on customers. groups. Also find the quality of services
increases in every case but one. Find
prices increased in half of the cases but
decreased in the other half.
Galiani et al. (2005) Examines the impact of privatising water All three measures show that child mortality
services on the mortality of young fell 5–8% in areas that privatised their
children in Argentina. Between 1991 and water services. Increase in access to and
2000, 30% of Argentina’s public water quality of water caused the reduction in
companies covering 60% of the population mortality. Investment increased, service
were privatised. Estimate impact of provision became more efficient and
privatisation on child mortality using quality improved. The number of people
three different measures. connected to the network increased
dramatically, but prices did not.

Pombo and Ramirez (2003) study Colom- private operators increased efficiency and ser-
bia’s privatisation programme, which was vice levels significantly, without significantly
fairly modest by Latin American standards. raising the rates they charged. The rates con-
They perform an ex post measurement and sumers paid, however, increased significantly,
econometric analysis of 30 large Colombian since the government exploited the new own-
manufacturing firms and 33 power generation ership structure to impose indirect taxes that
plants that were privatised during the 1993– it could not impose through direct levies. Once
1998 period. They employ both panel data the economic crisis began, government actions
regression analysis and MNR matched pre- discriminated against the privatised compa-
versus post-privatisation tests. The panel data nies and foreign operators were vilified as
analysis finds very positive results for priva- exploiters when they tried to raise fees in line
tised manufacturing firms, in that total factor with inflation and devaluation. All in all,
productivity indices increase from 0.27 to 0.50 Estache concludes that privatisation in Argen-
points, while profit rates increase by 1.2 per- tina was more cure than disease, but the overall
centage points. On the other hand, they find experience was a painful one for all involved.
that productive efficiency in power produc- In what is likely to prove an extremely influ-
tion is not systematically related to ownership ential paper, Galiani, Gertler and Schargrod-
changes, once other factors are accounted for. sky (GGS) (2005) examine the impact of
Estache (2003) asks whether Argentina’s privatising water services on the mortality of
1990s utilities privatisation programme was a young children in Argentina. Between 1991
cure or a disease. Certainly, the privatisations and 2000, 30 percent of Argentina’s public
of Argentina’s electricity, gas, water and water companies covering 60 percent of the
sanitation and telecommunications utilities are population were privatised. GGS estimate
today the object of intense anger within the the impact of privatisation on child mortality
country, but Estache attempts to determine using three different measures, and all three
whether this anger is appropriate. He first measures show that child mortality fell 5–8
notes that privatisation occurred just before the percent in areas that privatised their water ser-
country was gripped by a massive political and vices. The number of people connected to the
economic collapse and he tries to separate the network increased dramatically, but prices did
impact of privatisation from the overwhelming not, and increased post-privatisation access to
impact of the collapse. He finds that privatisa- (and quality of) water caused this reduction in
tion, per se, was quite successful: it raised sig- mortality. GGS estimate that approximately
nificant revenues for the state and the new 14,300 infants and 55,000 children aged 1–4

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250 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

years obtained access to water as a result of more, though the available evidence suggests
privatisation, which caused a reduction of 414 that the majority of displaced workers are re-
infant deaths and 110 fewer deaths of young employed within a year, often in the same
children during the year 2000. The number of industry. Additionally, the aggregate impact of
employees declined by roughly one-half, but these job cuts is in all cases quite small, since
productivity “went through the roof”, almost SOEs tend to be among the most capital-
tripling in seven years. Additionally, invest- intensive firms in most economies. MM find
ment increased, service provision became that privatisation-related job cuts represent
more efficient and quality improved. less than 2 percent of the overall work force in
McKenzie and Mookherjee (MM) (2003) all four countries (much less than this in
present an overview of the results of a project Bolivia and Colombia), and that the overall
evaluating the distributive impact of privati- employment impact is even more muted once
sation in the four Latin American countries of rehiring is accounted for. These authors also
Argentina, Bolivia, Mexico and Nicaragua. feel the more basic question is whether priva-
The studies they summarise use existing tisation promotes job growth in the overall
survey data and try to estimate the effects of economy, and they find some evidence that
privatisation on customers, since the lower this occurs. They also clearly show that priva-
half of the income distribution is not likely to tisation leads to higher social spending and
become shareholders in the privatisation sales. lower expenditure on debt service payments
The most significant component of the project by the central government, due to the positive
focuses on privatised utilities and estimates (and large) fiscal impact of privatisation rev-
the effect of changes in prices and access on enues. All in all, MM conclude that privatisa-
the welfare of families in different expenditure tion must be judged an economic success in
categories. A second component documents Latin America, and it is therefore all the more
the effects on workers, especially the employ- puzzling why it is popularly perceived as
ment changes and possible impact on wage having been a failure.
levels and earnings inequality.
MM find strong evidence that privatisation
leads to significant increases in access to water,
telephone and electricity services in all four Studies of privatisation in Africa
countries. Their results on access changes As described in Nellis (2005), the typical way
show that in general the gains in access are that “privatisation” unfolds in Africa is that
concentrated among lower income groups, poor service provision by loss-making SOEs
since the higher income households typically leads first to reforms short of private sector
had access prior to divestiture. They also involvement. These reforms produce no,
examine changes in the price of basic services. modest or unsustainable improvements, and
Here the interpretation becomes murkier; often lead to a greater financing role for state-
prices increase in half of the cases examined, owned banks, with all the attendant problems
but they decrease in the other half. The one relating to soft budget constraints. As financial
clear outlier is the water privatisation in losses mount, service quality deteriorates fur-
Cochabamba, Bolivia, which is generally ther and fiscal pressures on the government
acknowledged to be a failure – though MM mount to the point that the IMF must be called
show that even here the actual results are not in. The IMF duly identifies the problem, and
as disastrous as widely reported. As with the insists on reforms that ultimately lead to very
access results, the quality of service increases, grudging privatisation. In other words, there
often dramatically, in every case but one have thus far been very few true believers in
(where quality remains unchanged). Clearly, Africa. In most cases, the divesting govern-
access to and quality of utility services ments have insisted on retaining a large stake
increase in these four countries after privatisa- (typically one-third of the shares) in the firms
tion, and in the half of cases where prices divested, and have frequently shown hostility
increase the actual burden, these increases towards the multinational companies that are
place on customers is quite small. These the natural buyers of divested assets. For all
results leave MM in a quandary regarding one these reasons, sales have generally yielded
of the other tasks they set for themselves – disappointing amounts of revenue to govern-
explaining why privatisation has become so ments, and the results of the studies Nellis
unpopular in Latin America. surveys are among the least favourable overall
MM document one potential reason why towards privatisation of any region. A sum-
privatisation has acquired a bad name: it mary of African empirical studies are in
unequivocally leads to job losses among SOE Table 4.
employees. In many cases, employment in Nellis (2005) presents a survey of studies
privatised companies declines by one-half or examining privatisation in Africa. He notes

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PRIVATISATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 251

Table 4: Summary of country- and industry-specific empirical studies of privatisation in Africa

Study Sample description, study Summary of empirical findings


period and methodology and conclusions

Jones et al. (1998) Analyse 81 privatisations in Côte d’Ivoire, Find that (1) firms perform better after
covering the electricity sector in privatisation; (2) the firms perform better
infrastructure and other firms operating than they would have under continued
in competitive or potentially competitive state ownership; and (3) privatisation
markets in agriculture, agro-industries contributes positively to economic
and services. [Described in Nellis (2005)] welfare, with annual net welfare benefits
equal to about 25% of pre-divestiture
sales.
Andreasson (1998) Assesses privatisation’s impact in Find that three-quarters of dormant firms
Mozambique and Tanzania. In both return to production after privatisation.
countries many SOEs had ceased Substantial productivity gains also found,
operations before divestiture. [Described due partly to workforce reductions, but
in Nellis (2005)] also due to improved capacity utilisation.
In most cases, investments, production,
sales and value-added increase sharply
post-sale.
Temu and Due Review Tanzania’s privatisation experience Conclude that, in spite of long and tortuous
(1998, 2000) and examine the post-sale performance of negotiations required to actually effect
158 SOEs divested through 1999. Begin by sale (termed “privatisation by
documenting the extremely poor physical exhaustion”), privatisation increased
and financial condition of Tanzanian government revenues, reduced subsidies
manufacturing firms before privatisation. to SOEs, and forced firms to operate more
[Described in Nellis (2005)]. efficiently. Second study (2000) found that
employment in 16 privatised firms
declined by 48%.
Appiah-Kubi (2001) Examine 212 privatisations in Ghana. Report positive results in terms of easing
[Reported in Nellis (2005)] pressure on balance of payments,
increases in both allocative and X-
efficiency, stimulation of local capital
markets, enhancing the inflow of FDI,
widespread quality gains for consumers,
and increased employment and
remuneration.
Chirwa (2004) Studies impact of privatisation on technical Find that privatisation increases technical
efficiency using data from six privatised efficiency of all firms (industry effects)
Malawian enterprises, three SOEs and six and of privatised firms (firm effects). Find
private companies competing in three that other factors (capital intensity, multi-
oligopolistic industries. Privatisation nationality and structural adjustment
occurred 1984–1991 and panel regression programmes) also promote efficiency
uses data from 1970 to 1997. improvement. Suggests competitive
environments may be needed to optimise
efficiency gains from privatisation.

that in many (probably most) African coun- mented are concentrated in a handful of
tries, the political elites have been opposed countries, with South Africa alone account-
to privatisation, and have only implemented ing for one-third of the continent’s US$9
ownership changes in response to pressure billion in total proceeds since 1990. Nellis
from international financial institutions, par- concludes that less than 40 percent of
ticularly the IMF. Additionally, the bulk of Africa’s SOEs have been even partially priva-
the privatisations that have been imple- tised, and very few of the large, economically

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252 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

significant enterprises have been divested at and structural adjustment programmes also
all. promote improved efficiency. These findings
Jones et al. (1998) analyse 81 privatisations suggest that competitive environments may
in Côte d’Ivoire, covering the electricity sector be needed to optimise the efficiency gains
in infrastructure and other firms operating in from privatisation.
competitive or potentially competitive mar-
kets in agriculture, agro-industries and ser-
Studies of privatisation in South Asia
vices. They find that (1) firms perform better
after privatisation; (2) the firms perform better and other developing countries
than they would have under continued state The final region of the developing world we
ownership; and (3) privatisation contributes examine is South Asia. A summary of these
positively to economic welfare, with annual studies are in Table 5. In one of the earliest
net welfare benefits equal to about 25 percent published empirical studies on privatisation,
of pre-divestiture sales. Andreasson (1998) Bhaskar and Khan (1995) examine the impact
assesses privatisation’s impact in Mozam- of government divestiture on employment in
bique and Tanzania. In both countries many the Bangladeshi jute industry. They exploit a
SOEs had ceased operations before divesti- natural experiment involving the privatisation
ture, but Andreasson finds that three-quarters of 31 of 62 jute mills after Bangladesh won its
of the dormant firms returned to production independence in 1971. The sale selection pro-
after privatisation. He documents substantial cess was based solely on ethnicity of owner-
productivity gains after privatisation, due ship at the time the mills were nationalised,
partly to workforce reductions, but also due to not on current financial performance. They
improved capacity utilisation. In most cases, find that privatisation during the years 1983–
investments, production, sales and value- 1986 has an insignificant effect on output and
added increased sharply post-sale. profitability. Divestment significantly reduces
Temu and Due (1998) review Tanzania’s white-collar employment, but has no impact
privatisation experience and examine the on actual production workers, which suggests
post-sale performance of 158 SOEs divested that excess employment in public sector is
through 1999. They begin by documenting the more substantial at the white-collar level than
extremely poor physical and financial condi- among manual production workers.
tion of Tanzanian manufacturing firms before Akram (2000) develops a simple model of
privatisation. Temu and Due conclude that, dysfunctional privatisation driven by easy
in spite of long and tortuous negotiations access to state-provided credit and un-
required to actually effect most sales (termed enforced repayment requirements. He tests
“privatisation by exhaustion”), privatisation this model by examining the debt-default
increases government revenues, reduces sub- status of 128 Bangladeshi firms privatised
sidies to SOEs and forces firms to operate through December 1997. He documents that
more efficiently. In a second study by Temu the inability (or unwillingness) of all types of
and Due (2000), they find that employment Bangladeshi firms to repay loans is a serious
declines by 48 percent in 16 privatised com- and enduring problem that is not improved by
panies. Appiah-Kubi (2001) examines 212 privatisation. Of 128 privatised firms, 77 have
privatisations in Guinea, and reports positive overdue and outstanding loans to state banks;
results in terms of reduced pressure on 33 have outstanding loans that are not yet
Guinea’s balance of payments, increases in overdue. Only 18 have neither outstanding
both allocative and x-efficiency, stimulation of nor overdue loans. In a related paper, Akram
local capital markets, enhanced inflow of for- (1999) describes the practical problems that
eign direct investment, widespread quality have bedevilled Bangladesh’s privatisation
gains for consumers, and increased employ- programme from its earliest days.
ment and remuneration. Finally, Gupta (2005) examines whether par-
Finally, Chirwa (2004) studies the impact of tial privatisations impact the observed perfor-
privatisation on technical efficiency using data mance of 38 Indian SOEs partially divested
from six privatised Malawian enterprises, between 1990 and 1998. In this excellent study,
three SOEs and six private companies com- she employs a panel dataset of 2470 firm-years
peting in three oligopolistic industries. Priva- of data for all 341 state-owned Indian enter-
tisation occurs between 1984 and 1991 and prises (249 owned by national government,
Chirwa’s panel regression analyses examine others by states) and the 38 partially privatised
data from 1970 to 1997. He finds that privati- firms. She finds that partial privatisation has a
sation increases the technical efficiency of all positive and highly significant impact on firm
firms (industry effects) and of privatised firms sales, profits and labour productivity. Firm
(firm effects), though he finds that other fac- effects regressions show that a 10 percentage-
tors such as capital intensity, multi-nationality point decrease in government ownership

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PRIVATISATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 253

Table 5: Summary of country- and industry-specific empirical studies of privatisation in Asia and other developing countries

Study Sample description, study Summary of empirical findings


period and methodology and conclusions

Bhaskar and Khan (1995) Examines the impact of privatisation on Find that privatisation during 1983–1986
employment in Bangladeshi jute industry has insignificant effect on output and
by exploiting natural experiment – profitability. Significantly reduced
privatisation of 31 of 62 jute mills, based white-collar employment, but has no
solely on ethnicity of ownership at the impact on actual production workers.
time mills were nationalised, not on Conclude that excess employment in
current financial performance. public sector more substantial at
white-collar level than among manual
production workers.
Akram (2000) Develops a simple model of dysfunctional Documents that inability (or
privatisation driven by easy access to unwillingness) of all types of
state-provided credit and un-enforced Bangladeshi firms to repay loans is a
repayment requirements. Tests model by serious and enduring problem that is
examining debt-default status of 128 not improved by privatisation. Of 128
Bangladeshi firms privatised through privatised firms, 77 have overdue and
December 1997. outstanding loans to state banks; 33
have outstanding loans that are not
yet overdue. Only 18 have neither
outstanding nor overdue loans.
Gupta (2005) Examines whether partial privatisations Find partial privatisation has positive
impact performance for 38 Indian SOEs and highly significant impact on firm
partially divested between 1990 and 1998. sales, profits and labour productivity.
Employ panel dataset of 2470 firm years Fixed effects regressions show that a
of data for all 341 state-owned Indian 10 percentage point decrease in
enterprises (249 owned by national government ownership increases
government, others by states) and the 38 annual (log) sales and profits by 20%
partially privatised firms. and 13%, respectively. Privatisation
and competition are not substitutes
in their impact on firm performance.

increases annual (log) sales and profits by 20 reasons, infrastructure privatisations have
percent and 13 percent, respectively. been widely studied, and we discuss those
studies in the following three sections. We
begin by examining studies of telecommu-
Infrastructure privatisation studies nications privatisations, and then evaluate in
turn tests of electric utility and water and
No privatisations are as controversial or sewerage company privatisations. A summa-
important as those involving basic utility ry of these infrastructure privatisation studies
service providers. Telecommunications com- is presented in Table 6.
panies, electric generation and distribution
companies, oil and gas distribution compa- Telecommunications company
nies, and water and sewerage utilities have
traditionally been state-owned monopolies
privatisations
almost everywhere in the world except the National telecommunications companies, or
United States. These companies provide basic “telecoms”, have been in state hands since the
services that every citizen uses and feels dawn of the electronics era in most rich coun-
strongly about. Furthermore, these companies tries, with the important exception of the
tend to be very large and industrially impor- United States, as well as in virtually all the
tant, and most would have significant market developing nations. Therefore, as discussed in
power to set prices in the absence of state Wallsten (2001) and Noll (2000), telecom
ownership or effective regulation. For all these privatisation represents a truly epochal shift in

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254 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

Table 6: Summary of empirical studies of infrastructure privatisations

Study Sample description, study Summary of empirical findings


period and methodology and conclusions

Ros (1999) Uses ITU data and panel data regression Finds that countries with at least 50% private
methodology to examine the effects of ownership of main telecom firm have
privatisation and competition on significantly higher teledensity levels
network expansion and efficiency in and growth rates. Both privatisation and
110 countries over the period 1986–1995. competition increase efficiency, but only
privatisation is positively associated with
network expansion.
Wallsten (2001) Performs an econometric analysis of the Competition is significantly associated with
effects of telecommunications reforms in increases in per capita access and decreases
developing countries. Using a panel in cost. Privatisation alone is not helpful,
dataset of 30 African and Latin American unless coupled with effective, independent
countries from 1984 to 1997, explores the regulation. Increasing competition the
effects of privatisation, competition and single best reform, competition with
regulation on telecommunications privatisation is best combination of policies,
performance. but privatising a monopoly without
regulatory reforms should be avoided.
Boylaud and Nicoletti Use factor analysis and a database on Prospective and actual competition both bring
(2000) market structure and regulation to about productivity and quality
investigate the effects of liberalisation improvements – and lower prices – in
and privatisation on productivity, prices telecom services, but no clear effect found
and quality of long-distance and cellular for privatisation.
telephony services in 23 OECD countries
over the period 1991–1997.
Gutierrez and Berg Examine determinants of the number of Find that the regulatory framework (the
(2000) lines per capita in 19 Latin American presence and effectiveness of regulation)
countries over the period 1985–1995 and freedom variables have a significant
using economic, institutional and positive impact on the penetration rate. The
regulatory variables – including number of cellular phones per capita also
measures of democracy, economic significantly positively related to fixed line
freedom and openness to trade. During penetration, though not certain whether
this period, eight sample countries this means cellular and fixed lines are
established regulatory commissions, and complements or that a competition effect
14 out of 24 Latin and Caribbean explains the inter-relationship.
countries privatised their telecoms
between 1984 and 1997 (before Brazil in
1998), raising an estimated US$27 billion.
Bortolotti, et al. (2002) Examine the financial and operating Find that profitability, output, operating
performance of 31 national efficiency and capital investment spending
telecommunications companies fully increase significantly after privatisation,
or partially divested via public share while employment and leverage decline
offering over the period November significantly. Panel data shows that
1981 to November 1998. Also perform competition significantly reduces
univariate comparisons of the pre- profitability, employment and, surprisingly,
versus post-privatisation performance efficiency after privatisation, while creation
levels of these firms using the MNR of an independent regulatory agency
univariate testing procedure. They then significantly increases output. Mandating
run panel data estimations to explain third party access to an incumbent’s
performance over time in terms of network is associated with a significant
ownership changes and structural decrease in the incumbent’s investment and
changes due to regulatory reforms an increase in employment. Retained
occurring during the study period. government ownership is associated with a

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PRIVATISATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 255

Table 6: Continued

Study Sample description, study Summary of empirical findings


period and methodology and conclusions

significant increase in leverage and a


significant decrease in employment, while
price regulation significantly increases
profitability.
Kubota (2000) Uses the Stanford University/World Bank Finds that privatisation tends to improve the
database to examine the impact of performance of the incumbent operator, but
market conditions and policies on that an independent regulator and the
telecom sector performance for 135 degree of market competition have mixed
countries in 1998 (cross-sectional or weak effects.
analysis).
Wallsten (2000) Uses the Stanford University/World Bank Other things equal, finds that granting an EP
database to examine the effect of more than doubles the price a buyer will
including exclusivity periods (EPs) in 32 pay for a telco, and that extending the EP
telecom privatisation sales executed by for additional years also significantly raises
28 developing countries between 1987 the sale price. The offsetting effect is that
and 1998. Looks first at the impact of EPs are significantly negatively correlated
EPs on the sale price received by the with telecom investment after the sale. EPs
government and then on the post- also reduce the number of cellular phone
privatisation investment levels of the subscribers, dampen the growth in the
telecom companies. number of payphones provided, and are
negatively correlated with international
phone traffic after the sale.
McNary (2001) Uses the Stanford University/World Bank Finds that local fixed line and cellular phone
database to compare the relative success competition have significantly positive
of privatisation and competition in effects on performance, but that
improving the telecom penetration rates privatisation has a significant negative
in over 200 countries between 1987 and relationship with penetration rates.
1998. Uses pooled time series regression Concludes the reason for this negative effect
methods, and controls for both sector is that governments are using privatisation
characteristics and macroeconomic primarily as a means to raise revenue rather
influences. Also adjusts for endogeneity than to promote economic efficiency.
between historic firm performance and
the decision to reform.
Li and Xu (2002) Examine the political economy of Find that countries with stronger pro-reform
privatisation and liberalisation in the interest groups – especially urban
telecoms sector using data for 45 consumers and the financial services sector
countries from 1990 to 1998. Specifically – are more likely to reform in more
evaluate whether the degree of democratic countries. Less democratic
democracy and the political power of countries are more likely to maintain
different interest groups influences the the public sector monopoly when the
timing, scale and method of liberalisation government benefits from ownership, as
chosen. when the fiscal deficit is high. Democracy
affects the pace of reform by magnifying the
voices of interest groups in open societies
and by moderating politicians’ discretion in
less democratic countries.

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256 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

Table 6: Continued

Study Sample description, study Summary of empirical findings


period and methodology and conclusions

Wallsten (2002) Using a panel dataset with 2533 Finds that, as separate reforms, privatisation
observations from 197 countries over and establishing an independent regulator
the period 1985–1999, examines whether both have ambiguous effects on telecom
the sequencing of regulation and performance, but that combining
privatisation impacts the effectiveness of privatisation and regulation yields robust,
reforms and/or the price that investors significantly positive results. Establishing
are willing to pay for the company. an independent regulator before
privatisation is best policy combination,
since this enhances most measures of sector
performance and post-sale investment
levels. Having a guaranteed monopoly is
valuable to investors, and increases the
price they will pay, but so does having a
regulator in place prior to sale. Investors
appear willing to pay a higher price for a
firm privatised into an environment with
less institutional uncertainty.
Fink et al. (2002) Assess the effectiveness of telecom reforms Find that both privatisation and competition
in developing countries using data for significantly improve sector performance,
86 such countries over the 1985–1999 but that a comprehensive reform
period. Ask three specific questions: (1) programme involving both of these policies
What impact does specific policy changes and an independent regulator produces the
have on sectoral performance? (2) How largest gains – an 8% higher level of
is the effectiveness of one policy change mainline penetration and a 21% higher level
impacted by the implementation of the of productivity compared to years of partial
others? (3) Does the sequencing of or no reform. The sequencing of reforms
reforms affect performance? also matters, with the best performance
resulting if competition is introduced before
or simultaneously with privatisation, rather
than after. Also find that autonomous
factors, especially the evolution of
technology, strongly and positively impact
performance.
Li and Xu (2004) Examine the impact of privatisation and Finds that privatisation significantly
competition on telecom sector positively impacts output growth, network
performance using a panel dataset of expansion, TFP and labour productivity
privatisations from 166 countries and is associated with higher labour
between 1981 and 1998 and information shedding. Privatising via a SIP promotes the
on competition from 43 countries development of the mobile phone market.
between 1990 and 1998. Evaluates the Competition leads to higher employment,
impact of these reforms on output higher output, faster network expansion
growth, propensity to shed labour, and higher productivity. Granting EPs
network expansion, TFP and reduces, but does not negate, gains from
improvements in labour productivity. other reforms. Also find that competition
Also examine impact of the method of and privatisation are complements, in that
privatisation (SIP versus asset sale) competition increases the gains from
and of granting exclusivity periods. privatisation, and vice versa. Estimate that
half of the output growth between 1990 and
1998 is attributable to these two reforms,
after controlling for input growth.

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PRIVATISATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 257

Table 6: Continued

Study Sample description, study Summary of empirical findings


period and methodology and conclusions

Viani (2004) Examines 23 telecoms in developing Finds that private telecoms are more efficient,
countries from 1986 to 2001. Data come but not more profitable, than comparable
from financial reports. Uses panel data SOEs.
and fixed effects, controlling for
competition from landlines and wireless
companies.
Pombo and Ramirez Performs ex post measuring and Panel data analysis finds very positive results
(2003) econometric analysis of 30 large for privatised manufacturing firms. Total
Colombian manufacturing firms and factor productivity indices increase from
33 power generation plants privatised 0.27 to 0.50 points, while profit rates
during 1993–1998 period. Employ both increase by 1.2 percentage points.
panel data regression analysis and MNR Productive efficiency in power production
matched pre- vs post-privatisation tests. not systematically related to ownership
changes, once other factors accounted for.
Zhang et al. (2002) Examine effects of privatisation, Find that competition has the strongest effect
competition and regulation on the in promoting performance improvement.
performance of the electricity industry By itself, competition promotes service
using a panel dataset for 51 developing penetration, capacity expansion, greater
countries. Econometric technique labour efficiency and lower prices for
designed to disentangle separate effects industrial users. Separate effects of
of competition, regulatory change and privatisation and having an independent
ownership change. regulator are insignificant, except that
privatisation seems to promote higher
capacity utilisation. Coexistence of these
two reforms is correlated with greater
electricity availability, more generation
capacity and higher labour productivity.
Basic conclusion: privatisation and
regulation, on their own, do not lead to
obvious gains in economic performance,
while promoting competition does
stimulate performance improvements,
irrespective of changes in ownership or
regulation.
Zhang et al. (2005) Examine the electric utility industry in 25 Find that regulating and introducing
developing countries from 1985 to 2001. competition before actually privatising
Use a fixed effects panel model to leads to greater generation, increased
examine whether the sequencing of capacity and improved capital efficiency.
electricity reforms matters.
McKenzie and Present an overview of the results of a Find strong evidence that privatisation leads
Mookherjee (2003) project evaluating the distributive impact to significant increases in access to water,
of privatisation in Argentina, Bolivia, telephone and electricity services in all four
Mexico and Nicaragua. This project uses countries. Find that gains in access are
existing survey data to try to estimate the concentrated among lower income groups.
effects of privatisation on customers. Also find that the quality of services
increases in every case but one. Find that
prices increased in half of the cases but
decreased in the other half.

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258 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

Table 6: Continued

Study Sample description, study Summary of empirical findings


period and methodology and conclusions

Galiani et al. (2005) Examine the impact of privatising water All three measures show that child mortality
services on the mortality of young falls 5–8% in areas that privatise their water
children in Argentina. Between 1991 and services. Increase in access to and quality of
2000, 30% of Argentina’s public water water causes the reduction in mortality.
companies covering 60% of the Investment increases, service provision
population were privatised. Estimate becomes more efficient and quality
impact of privatisation on child mortality improves. The number of people connected
using three different measures. to the network increases dramatically, but
prices do not.

the balance of state power within every eco- the Stanford University/World Bank Telecom-
nomy where it is attempted. Additionally, cit- munications Database that couples telecom-
izens have a direct economic stake in the cost munications data provided by the ITU with
and quality of telecom services being pro- economic, regulatory and institutional data
vided, so their privatisation is always contro- collected by Stanford and the Bank.5
versial. The financial impact of telecom sales Perhaps surprisingly, the early empirical
is also immense, since telecom share issue studies tell somewhat conflicting stories,
privatisations (SIPs) are almost always the probably due in part to differences in the
largest share offerings in a nation’s history. nations covered and methodology employed.
Furthermore, telecoms usually become the Although Ros (1999), Wallsten (2001) and
“bellweather” stocks on national exchanges, Boylaud and Nicoletti (2000) all use some vari-
often accounting for 30 percent or more of total ant of panel data methodology, they arrive at
capitalisation and an even greater share of slightly different conclusions regarding the
total trading volume (Boutchkova and relative importance of deregulation/liberal-
Megginson, 2000). Additionally, telecom SIPs isation and privatisation in promoting ex-
often involve sizeable fractions of the pop- panded teledensity (number of main lines per
ulation becoming shareholders for the first 100 population) and operating efficiency of
time. Finally, it has become painfully obvious national telecom companies, and the quality
to policy-makers that an efficient commu- and pricing of telecom services. On balance,
nications sector is vital to a well-functioning these studies generally indicate that deregula-
modern economy, and that constructing such tion and liberalisation of telecom services are
a system requires capital investment spend- associated with significant growth in teleden-
ing on a scale that few governments can sity and operating efficiency, and significant
either achieve or effectively manage (Röller improvements in the quality and price of tele-
and Waverman, 2001). For all these reasons, com services. The impact of privatisation, per
telecom privatisations are always perceived as se, is somewhat less clear-cut, but most studies
high-stakes gambles, and selling governments agree that the combination of privatisation
typically approach divestment with great and deregulation/liberalisation is associated
anxiety. with significant telecommunications improve-
Many empirical studies examine the tele- ments. This is certainly the result predicted by
communications industry, which has been Noll (2000) in his analysis of the political
transformed by the twin forces of techno- economy of telecom reform in developing
logical change and deregulation (including countries.6
privatisation) since 1984. This was the year Gutierrez and Berg (2000) examine the
that the AT&T monopoly was broken-up in the determinants of the number of lines per capita
United States and the Thatcher government in 19 Latin American countries over the 1985–
began privatising British Telecom. Some of 1995 period using economic, institutional and
these studies employ samples created by the regulatory variables – including measures of
individual researchers, usually based on data democracy, economic freedom and openness
provided by the International Telecommunica- to trade. In order to characterise regulatory
tions Union (ITU), and most of these studies developments, the authors construct a dicho-
were begun before 2000. Other studies employ tomous index describing both the enforcement

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PRIVATISATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 259

powers of the new regulatory body and its higher profitability, output and efficiency, but
neutrality and independence from political significantly negatively related to leverage.
control. They document that eight sample However, they also find numerous separable
countries established regulatory commissions effects for regulatory, competition, retained
between 1985 and 1995. Additionally, 14 of the government and foreign listing variables.
24 Latin American and Caribbean countries Competition significantly reduces profita-
privatised their telecoms between 1984 and bility, employment and, surprisingly, eff-
1997 (before Brazil’s divestment of Telebras in iciency after privatisation, while creation of
1998), raising an estimated US$27 billion. an independent regulatory agency signifi-
Gutierrez and Berg find that the regulatory cantly increases output. Mandating third-
framework, measured by the presence and party access to an incumbent’s network is as-
effectiveness of regulation, and freedom vari- sociated with a significant decrease in the
ables have a significant positive impact on incumbent’s investment and an increase in
the penetration rate. The number of cellular employment. Retained government owner-
phones per capita is also significantly posi- ship is associated with a significant increase in
tively related to fixed line penetration, though leverage and a significant decrease in employ-
the authors cannot determine whether this ment, while price regulation significantly in-
means cellular and fixed lines are comple- creases profitability. Major efficiency gains
ments or that a competition effect explains the result from better incentives and productivity,
inter-relationship. rather than from wholesale firing of em-
Bortolotti, D’Souza, Fantini and Megginson ployees, and profitability increases are caused
(BDFM) (2002) examine the financial and oper- by significant reductions in costs, rather than
ating performance of 31 national telecommu- price increases. On balance, BDFM conclude
nications companies in 25 countries (14 that the financial and operating performance
industrialised and 11 developing) fully or par- of telecommunications companies improves
tially divested via public share offering over significantly after privatisation, but that a sig-
the period November 1981 to November 1998. nificant fraction of the observed improvement
They first build a dataset using balance sheet results from regulatory changes – alone or in
data for a seven-year period around the priva- combination with ownership changes – rather
tisation dates including various measures for than from privatisation alone.
profitability, output, efficiency, employment, Recently, several studies have employed
capital expenditure and leverage. This dataset the new Stanford University/World Bank
also incorporates national measures of telecom Telecommunications Database that couples
service levels, such as number of lines in ser- telecommunications data provided by the ITU
vice. BDFM perform univariate comparisons with economic, regulatory and institutional
of the pre- versus post-privatisation perfor- data collected by Stanford and the Bank. The
mance levels of these firms using the MNR studies that follow employ the Stanford/
univariate testing procedure. They then run World Bank database and use advanced
panel data estimations to explain performance econometric estimation techniques, and thus
over time in terms of ownership changes should be considered the state of the art in
and structural changes due to regulatory research into telecom privatisation and
reforms occurring during the study period. regulation.
The authors employ controls such as GDP per The first such study, by Kubota (2000),
capita in their regression estimations to make examines the impact of market conditions and
cross-country comparisons possible. policies on telecom sector performance for 135
Using conventional pre- versus post- countries during the single year 1998. It is thus
privatisation comparisons, BDFM find that unusual in being a cross-sectional rather than
profitability, output, operating efficiency and time-series analysis. Kubota shows that priva-
capital investment spending increase signifi- tisation tends to improve the performance of
cantly after privatisation, while employment the incumbent operator, but that an indepen-
and leverage decline significantly. These com- dent regulator and the degree of market com-
parisons, however, do not account for separate petition have mixed or weak effects.
regulatory and ownership effects, and almost Wallsten (2000) examines the effect of
all telecoms are subjected to material new including exclusivity periods (EPs) in 32 tele-
regulatory regimes around the time they are com privatisation sales executed by 28 devel-
privatised. BDFM examine these separate oping countries between 1987 and 1998. He
regulatory and ownership effects using both examines the impact of EPs first on the sale
random- and fixed-effect panel data estima- price received by the government and then on
tion techniques for a seven-year period the post-privatisation investment levels of the
around privatisation. They verify that priva- telecom companies. Other things equal, he
tisation is significantly positively related to finds that granting an EP more than doubles

© 2006 The Authors Volume 14 Number 4 July 2006


Journal compilation © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2006
260 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

the price a buyer will pay for a telecom, and ing an independent regulator before privatisa-
that extending the EP for additional years also tion is the best policy combination, since this
significantly raises the sale price. The offset- enhances most measures of sector perfor-
ting effect is that EPs are significantly nega- mance and post-sale investment levels. Hav-
tively correlated with telecom investment ing a guaranteed monopoly is valuable to
after the sale. EPs also reduce the number of investors, and increases the price they will
cellular phone subscribers, dampen the pay, but so does having a regulator in place
growth in the number of payphones provided prior to sale. Wallsten concludes that investors
and are negatively correlated with inter- appear willing to pay a higher price for a firm
national phone traffic after the sale. privatised into an environment with less insti-
McNary (2001) compares the relative suc- tutional uncertainty.
cess of privatisation and competition in im- Fink et al. (2002) assess the effectiveness of
proving the telecom penetration rates in over telecom reforms in developing countries using
200 countries between 1987 and 1998. He uses data for 86 such countries over the period
pooled time-series regression methods, and 1985–1999. They ask three specific questions:
controls for both sector characteristics and (1) What impact do specific policy changes
macroeconomic influences. He also adjusts have on sectoral performance? (2) How is the
for endogeneity between historic firm perfor- effectiveness of one policy change impacted
mance and the decision to reform. McNary’s by implementation of the others? (3) Does the
results are unique among this group of studies sequencing of reforms affect performance?
in that he finds that local fixed line and cellular The authors find that both privatisation and
phone competition have significantly positive competition significantly improve sector per-
effects on performance, but that privatisation formance, but that a comprehensive reform
has a significant negative relationship with programme involving both of these policies
penetration rates. He concludes that the and an independent regulator produces the
reason for this negative effect is that govern- largest gains – an 8 percent higher level of
ments are using privatisation primarily as a mainline penetration and a 21 percent higher
means to raise revenue rather than to promote level of productivity compared to years of par-
economic efficiency. tial or no reform. The sequencing of reforms
Li and Xu (2002) examine the political eco- also matters, with the best performance result-
nomy of privatisation and liberalisation in the ing if competition is introduced before or
telecoms sector using data for 45 countries simultaneously with privatisation, rather than
from 1990 to 1998. They specifically evaluate after. Fink et al. also find that autonomous fac-
whether the degree of democracy and the tors, especially the evolution of technology,
political power of different interest groups strongly and positively impact performance.
influences the timing, scale and method of Li and Xu (2004) examine the impact of
liberalisation chosen. They find that countries privatisation and competition on telecom
with stronger pro-reform interest groups – sector performance using a panel dataset of
especially urban consumers and the financial privatisations from 166 countries between
services sector – are more likely to reform in 1981 and 1998 and information on competition
more democratic countries. Less democratic from 43 countries between 1990 and 1998.
countries are more likely to maintain the They evaluate the impact of these reforms on
public sector monopoly when the government output growth, propensity to shed labour,
benefits from ownership, such as when the network expansion, total factor productivity
fiscal deficit is high. Li and Xu conclude that (TFP) and improvements in labour productiv-
democracy affects the pace of reform by mag- ity. They also examine the impact of the
nifying the voices of interest groups in open method of privatisation (SIP versus asset sale)
societies and by moderating politicians’ dis- and of granting exclusivity periods. Li and
cretion in less democratic countries. Xu find that privatisation has a significantly
Wallsten (2002) uses a panel dataset with positive impact on output growth, network
2533 observations from 197 countries over expansion, TFP and labour productivity and is
the period 1985–1999 to examine whether the also associated with more labour shedding.
sequencing of regulation and privatisation Privatising via a SIP promotes the develop-
impacts the effectiveness of reforms and/or ment of the mobile phone market. Competi-
the price that investors are willing to pay for tion leads to higher employment, higher
the company. He finds that, as separate output, faster network expansion and higher
reforms, privatisation and establishing an productivity. Granting EPs reduces, but does
independent regulator both have ambiguous not negate, the gains from other reforms. The
effects on telecom performance, but that authors also find that competition and priva-
combining privatisation and regulation yields tisation are complements, in that competition
robust, significantly positive results. Establish- increases the gains from privatisation, and

Volume 14 Number 4 July 2006 © 2006 The Authors


Journal compilation © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2006
PRIVATISATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 261

vice versa. They estimate that half of the seems to promote higher capacity utilisation.
output growth between 1990 and 1998 is The coexistence of these two reforms (privati-
attributable to these two reforms, after control- sation and an independent regulator) is corre-
ling for input growth. lated with greater electricity availability, more
Viani (2004) examines 23 telecom firms in generation capacity and higher labour produc-
developing countries from 1986 to 2001. His tivity. Their basic conclusion is that privatisa-
data come from the financial reports of each tion and regulation, on their own, do not lead
firm. He uses panel data and fixed effects and to obvious gains in economic performance,
finds that private telecoms are more efficient, while promoting competition does stimulate
but not more profitable, than comparable performance improvements, irrespective of
SOEs. His regressions control for competition, changes in ownership or regulation. Two years
from both landlines and wireless firms, and later, the authors did a follow-up study. Zhang
the size of each firm’s network. et al. (2005) examine the electric utility indus-
Taken as a whole, the results of these studies try in 25 developing countries from 1985 to
offer clear lessons for academics and policy- 2001. Their fixed effects panel model finds that
makers alike. Privatisation, competition and the sequencing of electricity reforms (privati-
establishing an independent regulator all seem sation, regulation and competition) matters.
to improve telecom performance if adopted in Regulating and introducing competition be-
isolation, though there are often painful trade- fore actually privatising leads to higher gener-
offs from single reforms (i.e. privatisation may ation, increased capacity and improved capital
promote efficiency, but reduce employment). efficiency.
On the other hand, all of these studies clearly
show that adopting a package of reforms –
including competition, independent regula- Water and sewerage privatisations
tion and privatisation – yields economically
All of the studies of water and sewerage
and statistically significant improvements
privatisations have been discussed earlier in
in telecom performance. Furthermore, those
this survey, so we provide only a brief re-cap
studies that examine the influence of de-
here. Nellis (2005) cites studies of African
mocracy and transparency on the political
water privatisations that were generally per-
economy of telecom privatisation find that
ceived as unsuccessful. On the other hand,
openness improves the process of privatisation
the evidence on water privatisations in Latin
and increases the amount of improvement
America has been much more positive. With
achieved by the reform programme.
the exception of a failed water privatisation
in Cochabamba, Bolivia, all of the other na-
Electric utility privatisations tional experiences described in McKenzie and
Mookherjee (2002) showed striking increases
We have already examined several of the elec-
in access to water services (usually achieved
tricity privatisation studies in earlier sections.
without large price increases) and Galiani et al.
In this section, we will focus on the important
(2005) show that Argentina’s water privatisa-
studies we have not yet discussed.
tions not only increased efficiency and output,
Pombo and Ramirez (2003) study 33 Colom-
but also significantly reduced child mortality
bian power generation plants privatised
by increasing access to clean water.
during the period 1993–1998. They find that
Perhaps the best conclusion that can be
productive efficiency in power production
drawn from all the studies examining the
is not systematically related to ownership
privatisation of infrastructure companies is
changes, once other factors are accounted for.
that ownership change tends to promote
Zhang et al. (2002) examine the effects of
performance improvements, but that other
privatisation, competition and regulation on
reforms – especially promoting competition
the performance of the electricity service in-
where possible and adopting an effective reg-
dustry using a panel dataset for 51 developing
ulatory regime – are necessary to ensure that
countries. Their econometric techniques are
efficiency gains are achieved and that these
designed to disentangle the separate effects of
gains are shared with consumers.
competition, regulatory change and owner-
ship change. They find that competition has
the strongest effect in promoting performance
improvement. By itself, competition pro- Conclusion
motes service penetration, capacity expansion,
greater labour efficiency and lower prices for The studies from developing economies dis-
industrial users. The separate effects of priva- cussed in this paper offer support for the
tisation and having an independent regulator proposition that privatisation is associated
are insignificant, except that privatisation with improvements in the operating and

© 2006 The Authors Volume 14 Number 4 July 2006


Journal compilation © Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2006
262 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

financial performance of divested firms. Most the SOE is sold to many investors through the
of these studies offer strong support for this public capital market. In this manner, it appears
proposition, and only a handful document that governments in developing countries use
outright performance declines after privatisa- these SIPs as a means to develop their stock
exchanges.
tion. Almost all studies that examine post-
2. Many of the difficulties are similar to those dis-
privatisation changes in output, efficiency, cussed in Temple (1999), who surveys cross-
profitability, capital investment spending and country research in the determinants of growth.
leverage document significant increases in the Temple discusses the substantial problems that
first four measures and significant declines in arise in estimating and interpreting cross-
leverage. country regressions. Tybout (2000) also discusses
The studies examined here are far less the difficulties with data in attempting to assess
unanimous regarding the impact of privatisa- the performance of manufacturing firms in
tion on employment levels in privatised firms. developing countries.
All governments fear that privatisation will 3. Megginson et al. (2004) find that governments
selling SOEs tend to sell the more profitable
cause former SOEs to shed workers, and the
SOEs in the public capital markets and the less
key question in virtually every case is whether profitable ones in the more opaque private mar-
the divested firm’s sales will increase enough kets. Those sold in the public capital markets are
after privatisation to offset the dramatically the firms that appear in studies of performance.
higher levels of per-worker productivity. Two Dewenter and Malatesta (2001) also show per-
studies document significant increases in formance improvements before privatisation in
employment (Megginson et al., 1994; Boubakri firms that are being privatised.
and Cosset, 1998), but most of the remain- 4. Ramamurti (1997) details the intense political
ing studies document significant – sometimes manoeuvring that accompanied the attempt to
massive – employment declines. These con- restructure and slim down FA. The generous
severance payments awarded to displaced
flicting results could be due to differences in
workers were instrumental in winning union
methodology, sample size and make-up, or acquiescence in the restructuring plan, while the
omitted factors. However, it is more likely that presence of effective road transport competition
the studies reflect real differences in post- for rail traffic reduced the threat of a potentially
privatisation employment changes between crippling strike weapon.
countries and between industries. In other 5. This database is described at length in McNary
words, there is no “standard” outcome regard- (2001) and Fink et al. (2002).
ing employment changes. Perhaps the safest 6. Though they do not quite fit into our empirical
conclusion we can assert is that privatisation classification scheme, three related studies
does not automatically mean employment deserve mention here. Smith and Wellenius
(1999) and Wellenius (2000) present normative
reductions in divested firms, though this will
analyses of telecom regulation in developing
likely occur unless sales can increase fast countries. Wallsten (2001) shows that exclusivity
enough after divestiture to offset very large periods, which are usually granted to telecom
productivity gains. monopolies as they are being privatised, are
Since the empirical studies discussed in economically harmful to consumers and do not
this paper generally document performance achieve the efficiency objectives assigned to
improvements after privatisation, a natural them at the time of divestment. Exclusivity
follow-on question is to ask why performance periods do, however, raise the price that inves-
improves. For utilities, the need to introduce tors are willing to pay for privatised telecoms,
competition and an effective regulatory which largely explains why they are employed.
regime emerges as key, but there is no “silver
bullet” answer for what makes privatisation
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Volume 14 Number 4 July 2006 © 2006 The Authors


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PRIVATISATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 265

Yarrow, G. (1999) A Theory of Privatization, or Why eter. Professor Megginson’s research interest
Bureaucrats are Still in Business, World Develop- has focused in recent years on the privatisa-
ment, 27, 157–168. tion of state-owned enterprises, especially
Zhang, Y.-F., Parker, D. and Kirkpatrick, C. (2002) those privatisations executed through public
Electricity Sector Reform in Developing Coun-
share offerings. He has published refereed
tries: An Econometric Assessment of the Effects
of Privatisation, Competition and Regulation. articles in several top academic journals,
Working paper, University of Manchester, including the Journal of Economic Literature, the
Manchester. Journal of Finance, the Journal of Financial Eco-
Zhang, Y., Parker, D. and Kirkpatrick, C. (2005) nomics, the Journal of Financial and Quantitative
Competition, Regulation and Privatisation of Analysis and Foreign Policy. His co-authored
Electricity Generation in Developing Countries: study documenting significant performance
Does the Sequencing of the Reforms Matter?, The improvements in recently privatised compa-
Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 25, 358– nies received one of two Smith Breeden Dis-
379. tinguished Paper Awards for outstanding
research published in the Journal of Finance
William L. Megginson is Professor and Rain- during 1994. He is author or co-author of
bolt Chair in Finance at the University of seven textbooks.
Oklahoma’s Michael F. Price College of Busi-
ness. He is also a voting member of the Italian Natalie L. Sutter is a doctoral candidate in the
Ministry of Economics and Finance’s Global Finance Division, Michael Price College of
Advisory Committee on Privatization and Business, University of Oklahoma, Norman,
Scientific Advisor for the Privatization Barom- OK, USA 73019.

© 2006 The Authors Volume 14 Number 4 July 2006


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