Looking Back to Change Track

G R E E N India 2047

Growth with
Resource

Enhancement of

Environment and

Nature

The Energy and Resources Institute

New Delhi
© The Energy and Resources Institute, 2006

ISBN 81-7993-104-8

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any

form or by any means without prior permission of the The Energy and
Resources Institute.

Published by
T E R I Press
The Energy and Resources Institute Tel. 2468 2100, 4150 4900
Darbari Seth Block Fax 2468 2144, 2468 2145
I H C Complex, Lodhi Road India +91 • Delhi (0) 11
New Delhi – 110 003 E-mail teripress@teri.res.in
India Web www.teriin.org
 Contents

Preface ........................................................................................ v

Acknowledgements ......................................................................... vii

Project team ................................................................................. ix

1 Introduction .................................................................................... 1

2 Air ................................................................................................... 5

3 Water ............................................................................................... 41

4 Solid waste management ................................................................. 71

5 Forests ............................................................................................. 109

6 Biodiversity ...................................................................................... 127

7 Conclusions ..................................................................................... 147

 Preface

TERI launched the GREEN India 2047 project on the Earth Day, 1995. The pur-
pose of that effort was to assess what India had done to its natural resource
wealth in the first 50 years of Independence. The first phase of this project was
completed before Independence Day 1997, and a presentation made to the then
Prime Minister Shri I K Gujral and several of his cabinet colleagues. Subse-
quent phases of this work revealed that while India had progressed
economically, our record as a society in ensuring the conservation and proper
care of the environment and natural resources had been less than satisfactory.
It was also found that environmental protection is not merely a luxury or the
pursuit of a dream in the eyes of idealistic environmentalists. The principle of
protecting the environment and conserving our natural resources is an eco-
nomic imperative. Neglecting it only reduces economic welfare and even the
material progress of society as a whole. Now, almost a decade after the first ma-
jor project was completed, we have carried out a reassessment of our
performance for the 59 years that have lapsed since Independence.
The Government of India has formulated a set of targets to monitor socio-
economic and environmental performance, which uphold the spirit of the
international Millennium Development Goals but are naturally attuned to the
country’s specific socio-economic requirements. Policies such as the National
Environment Policy, 2006, and Integrated Energy Policy, 2006, have been con-
ceived to achieve these goals, reflecting the country’s commitment to the
paradigm of sustainable development. However, despite progress in this gen-
eral area, some issues still remain neglected. Piling waste dumps, deteriorating
water quality of major rivers, and loss of habitat are a few areas that warrant
immediate attention.
Looking Back to Change Track, a sequel to TERI’s GREEN India 2047
project, renews the assessment of India’s management of the country’s key
natural resources. While India’s commitment to achieving sustainable develop-
ment is clear, it needs to be ascertained whether this resolve has translated into
concrete action. Therefore, the question arises whether natural resource man-
agement and sustainable development have been accorded priority in the
recent past to ensure reversal of adverse trends? The present publication at-
tempts to answer these questions, re-articulating the message that time has
come for us to develop firm policies and involve major stakeholders to initiate a
change, before it is too late to change track.

(R K Pachauri)
Director-General, TERI, New Delhi
 Acknowledgements

This report draws on the collective effort of many people. It is the output of the
tireless hours of dedicated work put in by a core group of professionals engaged
in reviewing and analysing issues, preparing drafts, and compiling the entire
report. Their efforts, however, would have come to naught without the critical
guidance and constant encouragement by a plethora of advisors. In particular,
we thank Mr R K Batra and Dr Leena Srivastava who provided critical input
throughout the preparation of this report. This report would not have seen the
light of day without the crucial guidance of Ms Preety Bhandari and Dr R K
Pachauri.
A large number of colleagues at TERI were involved at various stages of the
project, providing vital information at each stage. We thank each one of them
and regret not being able to personally acknowledge their contributions. Vari-
ous subject-related workshops were organized from time to time. The authors
found them to be very useful while putting together their respective chapters.
The workshops also provided a common platform where innovative ideas were
conceived and debated upon. We thank all the participants as well as authors
for sharing their experiences and providing clear perspectives, which formed a
solid basis of this report.
Finally, the report was reviewed and prepared for publication by Mr Bhaskar
Hazarika after many hours of careful work and discussions with the team.
 Project team

Coordinators Divya Datt, Vikram Dayal, Vishal Narain, and Shilpa Nischal

Authors Air
T S Panwar, Sumit Sharma, and Vikram Dayal

Water
Kapil Kumar Narula, Catherine Rose James, and Vishal Narain

Solid waste management

Suneel Pandey, K V Santhosh Ragavan, and Divya Datt

Forests
Varghese Paul and Ashish Aggarwal

Biodiversity
Yogesh Gokhale and Anirban Ganguly

Conclusions
Divya Datt, Shilpa Nischal, and Preety Bhandari

Advisers R K Batra, Preety Bhandari, P P Bhojvaid, Ashok Jaitly, N B Majumdar,

R K Pachauri, and Leena Srivastava

Secretarial assistance Kiran Shivpuri

TERI Press K P Eashwar, Bhaskar Hazarika, R K Joshi, R Ajith Kumar, T Radhakrishnan,

Subrata Kumar Sahu, Richa Sharma, and Archana Singh
 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Introduction

I
n 1997, TERI undertook a major study called the GREEN India 2047
(GREEN—Growth with Resource Enhancement of Environment and
Nature). The objective of this exercise was to determine and quantify the
extent of damage to India’s natural resource base that accompanied economic
growth during the 1947–97 period (Box 1). The results of this study were docu-
mented in a publication titled Looking Back to Think Ahead. This ‘looking back’
provided the foundation for the ‘think ahead’ component of the study DISHA
for sustainable development (DISHA—Directions, Innovations, and Strategies
for Harnessing Action). This study envisaged alternative development options
for adopting strategies that would lead to a more sustainable future. The study
presented ‘base’ and ‘alternative’ scenarios for the period 1997–2047 and pro-
jected quantitatively the status of our natural resources and the environment
(Box 2).

Box 1 GREEN India 2047: looking back at 50 years of damage and

neglect

P The environmental costs in India exceed 10% of the gross domestic product as
a result of loss in agricultural productivity, loss in timber value due to degrada-
tion of forests, depletion of water resources, and health costs due to polluted
water and air.
P Soil degradation resulted in an annual loss of 11%–26% of the agricultural
output.
P The total growing stock of forests is only 63% of their potential growing stock on
the existing area.
P Air pollution has significant impacts on the health of people, especially those
residing in urban slums.
P Growing population, poverty, and inadequate access to clean fuels in rural
areas have popularized the use of biomass fuels, thereby exposing more than
90% of the rural households and more than 35% of the urban households to
high levels of indoor air pollution.
 2 • Looking Back to Change Track

Box 2 DISHA for sustainable development

The GREEN India 2047 study revealed the progressive degradation of natural
resources and sounded a warning that unless an alternative developmental path
is charted, the country would be beset with the crises emanating from depletion
of natural resources, social discontent, and eventual economic breakdown. The
‘alternative’ scenario, more widespread than the ‘base’ scenario, envisaged in
DISHA for sustainable development (DISHA—Directions, Innovations, and
Strategies for Harnessing Actions), was built on a reform agenda, policies of
which are implemented at a considerably faster pace. The alternative case
identifies a number of stakeholders to implement the proposed policies—
ministries of the central and state governments, central and state government
entities (for example, railways, municipalities, irrigation, and forestry depart-
ments), the corporate sector, industry associations, financial institutions,
research and non-governmental organizations, the farming community, and the
public. However, the greatest responsibility lies with the central and state
governments. The success of DISHA will depend on the following.
P Designing and implementing consistent policies
P Shunning populism
P Introducing market-based reforms
P Giving operational and financial freedom to government entities
P Empowering people
P Ensuring complete literacy to a generation
P Displaying and maintaining necessary political will to make all the above
happen
The likely benefits in terms of the use and abuse of natural resources envisaged
in the alternative case vis-à-vis the base case in 2047 are listed below.
P Reduction in the use of coal by over 50%; the reduction being entirely in
imports.
P Lowering of oil demand by over 35% compared to the base case, driven mainly
by a 60% decline in the transport sector’s demand for oil.
P Doubling of power generation on account of the use of renewable energy
technologies (This would imply a saving of 72 MT [million tonnes] of domestic
coal and preventing 1 MT of SPM [suspended particulate matter] emissions,
22 MT of fly ash, and 122 MT of carbon dioxide.)
P A steep decline in air pollution (SPM) by a sharp 81%.
P Reduction in water demand by 25%.
P Increase in forest land to 92 million hectares (30% of the total area in the
country), an 18% improvement over the base case, with a substantial increase
in dense forests and reduction in open forests and areas under scrub.

The results of the first component of the GREEN India 2047 study, covering the
Review renewed first 50 years since our Independence, were presented in 1997. Since then, the
Ninth Five-year Plan and a large part of the Tenth Five-year Plan periods have
gone by, with the underlying goal being growth with social justice and equity.
The Tenth Plan, also committed to achieving targets that can both be quantified
and monitored, laid emphasis on incorporating ecological issues into the devel-
opment strategy and stressed on the need to have a robust governance to
achieve the same. This has been reiterated in the Approach Paper to the Elev-
enth Five-year Plan, which has underscored the importance of the development
strategy to be sensitive to the environmental concerns and emphasized that
these be carefully evaluated for long-term sustainability.
 3 • Introduction

Since 1997, world over, a better understanding of the interdependent eco-

nomic, social, and environmental facets of sustainability has emerged. The
period witnessed the Rio Summit, in which countries reiterated their resolve to
maintain sustainable development and agreed to adopt the MDGs (Millennium
Development Goals) in 2000. While India, in principle, agrees to the adoption
of MDGs, it follows some indigenously set targets to monitor socio-economic
and environmental performance; this agrees with the spirit of the MDGs but are
more attuned to the country’s specific socio-economic requirements (Table 1).

Table 1 Comparing India’s indigenously set targets vis-à-vis the Millennium Development Goals

Target set for the Tenth Five-year Plan

Issue (2002–07) and beyond Corresponding Millennium Development Goal/target

Poverty Reduction in poverty ratio by 5% by 2007 and MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
15% by 2012 Target: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people
whose income is less than 1 dollar a day

Education All children to complete five years of MDG 2: Achieve universal primary education
schooling by 2007 and literacy rate to be Target: Ensure that by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike,
increased to 75% by 2007 will be able to complete a full course of primary education

Gender equality Reduction in gender gaps in literacy and wage MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women
rates by at least 50% by 2007 Target: Eliminate gender disparities in primary and secondary
education preferably by 2005, and to all levels of education by 2015

Health Reduction in infant mortality rate to 45 per
1000 live births by 2007 and to 28 by 2012
Reduction in maternal mortality rate to 2
per 1000 live births by 2007 and 33% by 2012
MDG 4: Reduce child mortality
Target: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under five
mortality rate
MDG 5: Improve maternal health
Target: Reduce by three-fourth, between 1990 and 2015, the
maternal mortality ratio

Water All villages to have sustained access to potable
drinking water by 2007
Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007
and other notified stretches by 2012
MDG 6: Ensure environmental sustainability
Target: Halve by 2015 the proportion of people without sustainable
access to safe drinking water and sanitation
Indicators
P Proportion of population with sustainable access to an improved
water source, urban and rural
P Proportion of population with sustainable access to an improved
sanitation, urban and rural

Forests Increase in forest and tree cover to 25% by MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability
2007 and 33% by 2012 Target: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into
country’s policies and programmes, and reverse the loss of
environmental resources
Indicator: Proportion of land area covered by forests

Employment Gainfully employing the labour force that will MDG 8: Build up a global partnership for development
be added during the Tenth Plan period Target: In cooperation with the developing countries, develop and
implement strategies for decent and productive work for youth

Source Planning Commission (2002); < http://unstats.un.org/unsd/mi/mi_goals.asp>, last accessed on 26 October 2006

While the plan documents have echoed India’s commitment to achieving sus-
tainable development goals, the question that needs to be considered is
whether this understanding and resolve have translated into concrete action?
Have natural resource management and sustainable development been
accorded priority in the recent past to ensure reversal of adverse trends?
The National Environmental Policy (MoEF 2006) recognizes that ‘environmen-
tal degradation is a major causal factor in enhancing and perpetuating poverty,
 4 • Looking Back to Change Track

particularly among rural poor, as such degradation impacts soil fertility, and
quantity and quality of water, air, forests, wildlife, and fisheries’.
Air and water pollution are estimated to account for 20% of the disease bur-
den in India. In some areas of North-west and South India, industries are faced
with relocation or closure due to water scarcity. In agriculture, the injudicious
use of soil and water and the loss of their productive capacities are going
against the vision of the Green Revolution. There are signs of declining growth
in agricultural productivity—the annual growth rate fell from 2.9% in the 1980s
to 1.2% in the 1990s, and has been about 1.5% since 1996/97. The government
has called for a second Green Revolution to enhance the growth in this sector to
about 4%, which may need a resuscitation of the resource base that this sector
is so critically dependent on, technological interventions notwithstanding. Our
natural resources are getting depleted at a rate faster than the world average. It
is estimated that one-third of the goods and services utilized by the poor come
directly from the natural resources. The poor are, therefore, directly affected by
natural resource degradation. World Bank estimates that the cost of environ-
mental damage is about 10 billion dollars per year.
India is undergoing rapid economic growth and urbanization because of
which enormous pressure is being placed on its environmental resources. Addi-
tionally, several new and complex issues that require significant policy
guidance as well as scientific analysis are emerging at the regional and global
levels. It is, thus, important that we establish a clear understanding of the roles
and responsibilities of various institutions and stakeholders.
Given the dynamic changes that the country and the world is going through,
TERI felt that it was necessary to carry out a detailed analysis of the develop-
ments and their impacts during the past five years. Almost a decade after 1997,
are we on the path of recovery? Have natural resources and the environment
actually been given priority in the recent years? The present study, GREEN
India 2047 renewed: looking back to change track, renews the review of the
status of the environment and natural resources to assess the gains and losses
since 1997. The study assesses the developments made in managing the natural
resources (air, water, forests, and biodiversity) and tackling the problem of
waste management in the country. Through the present study, TERI examines
the trends of developments to understand if we indeed have changed track to a
more sustainable path when compared with the first 50 years of development
since 1947. It also aims at identifying areas for further concrete action and
suggests ways on how to gather and sustain a critical momentum for a positive
change.
It is our endeavour to integrate these five-yearly reviews of mainstream
sustainability issues into our planning process and build a vigilant, environ-
mentally conscious, and resource-conserving society.

MoEF (Ministry of Environment and Forests). 2006

References National Environment Policy 2006
New Delhi: MoEF, Government of India. 52 pp.

Planning Commission. 2002

Tenth Five Year Plan 2002–2007, Vol. I: Dimensions and strategies
New Delhi: Planning Commission, Government of India