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August 1, 2010
The lighting industry is abuzz with new technologies to meet energy savings
requirements. Compact fluorescent lights, CFLs, light emitting diodes, LEDs, and
organic light emitting diodes, OLEDs, are becoming familiar terms.
The CFL was expected to become the dominant provider of residential general
illumination. But the success of the CFL is also its failure. Its longer life has cut into its
own sales. These sales are misleading as they were initially heavily subsidized by
governments. The initial quality of CFLs produced were poor resulting in less than
expected net savings. The EPA warnings about how to contain a broken CFL were such
that families with small children would think twice before installing one. Recyclability of
the CFL has not really been addressed in a uniform way. Therefore, the once incredible
wind-fall market, mandated by governments, may never be realized for CFLs. In fact US
imports of CFLs rose from 144 million units in 2005 to 460 million units in 2007 (a 300%
gain) but then fell to 317 million units in 2009.
Cold cathode fluorescent lights (CCFLs) hidden behind LCD displays are being
replaced. Light emitting diodes (LEDs), once limited to red, amber, and green have
bloomed in white light. Advances are occurring almost daily in developing white LEDs
that are more naturally colored and brighter. The highest grades are called high-brights
(HB-LEDs). HB-LEDs are moving in to take the lead as back-lighting agents leading to
thinner, lighter, and brighter displays.
Organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs) are formed from organic rather than inorganic
materials and are printed rather than etched or layered on a semiconductor chip.
Printing is an economical process but requires great control. So far OLEDs are still
waiting for their big technological break-though but it’s only a matter of time.
Quickly on the heels of the diodes are other more exotic technologies including
quantum dots and semi-micro-electro-mechanical systems (micro machines!).
All of these competing technologies have advantages and disadvantages. As of now the
markets are wide open and can accommodate many participants. Because the entry
cost to some of these technologies is fairly low even small operators have chances to
make big profits. However, once a 15% reduction in energy is achieved advanced
lighting controls, smart grids etc. will offer less savings.
LED and Energy Efficient Lighting Worldwide Markets: Indoor, Outdoor, Residential,
Commercial reviews these technologies and their applications in general illumination,
illuminated signage, electronic displays and vehicular lighting applications.
The report contains comprehensive data on the U.S. and international market for
lighting elements of all types. Historic data goes back to 2005 while projections are
made though 2014. Data is presented on value and volume of shipments and estimates
made of future market size for established and developing technologies. A key chapter
discusses the many, many influences on the market and their interaction. The study
profiles major marketers and companies to watch as this shakeout continues.
Report Methodology
The information in LED and Energy Efficient Lighting Worldwide Markets is based on
data from the US and foreign trade data, industry and university publications, interviews
with industry experts, along with information from several trade associations, the US
Department of Energy, United Nations energy program information, business journals,
company literature and websites, and research services such as Simmons Market
Research Bureau.
LED and Energy Efficient Lighting Worldwide Markets presents the market data
gathered together from various government and private sources and weaves an
understanding between the numbers. Reading this report and reviewing the data
presented will give the reader a sense of perspective and insight. Perspective on how
we got here and insight on how to use the information to your best advantage is offered.
The big playing field of the lighting industry is characterized with 17 lighting industry
profiles. Over 100 figures and graphs portray data in a way that is conducive to
discerning the relationships between market facts.
Table of Contents
Data
Methodology
Terminology
The Market
Figure 1-3: Indoor, Outdoor, Residential, Commercial World Market Segments Actual 2005- 2009(e)
World Manufacturers
Illuminated Signage
Figure 1-7: World Market for Illuminated Signs, Actual 2005-2009, Projected 2010-2014
Figure 1-8: U.S. Market for Illuminated Signs, Actual 2005-2009, Projected 2010-2014
Vehicular Lighting
Figure 1-10: U.S. Vehicular Lighting Systems Actual 2005-2009, Projected 2010-2014
Electronic Displays
Figure 1-15: Actual and Projected Markets for HB-LEDs through 2014 ($ billions)
Market Trends
Figure 1-17: U.S. Sources of Energy Used for Generation of Electricity, 2009
Trends in Signage
Corporate maneuverings
Emerging Technologies
Chapter 2: Overview
Incandescent
Fluorescent
Electronic Circuitry
p-n Junctions
Organic LEDs
Interferometer Modulation
LED Backlighting
LED
Figure 3-2: World Lighting Market, General Illumination and Other, 2005-2009(e) ($ billions)
Figure 3-3: Indoor, Outdoor, Residential, Commercial World Market Segments Actual 2005- 2009(e)
Luminaires
Figure 3-5: World Indoor Lighting Market Exports by Light Component, 2005-2009(e)
Figure 3-7: World Exports of Commercial and Industrial Lighting by Component, 2005-2009(e)
Figure 3-8: Worldwide Exports of Other Incandescent, Non-Halogen Lighting, 2005-2009(e) ($ millions)
Figure 3-10: China Top World Exporter of General Illumination Goods, 2008 ($ billions)
Figure 3-14: U.S. Numbers of General Illumination Light Sockets, 2009 (billion units)
Figure 3-15: U.S. Production and Import of Light Bulbs, Incandescent and Fluorescent, 2005-2009
Figure 3-17: U.S. Imports of Indoor Lighting Bulbs, 2005—2009 (units in millions)
Figure 3-19: Actual, 2005-2009, and Projected, 2010-2014, U.S. Import of General Use Incandescent Light
Bulbs ($ millions)
Halogen Lamps
Figure 3-21: U.S. imports of Indoor Halogen Lamps, Actual 2005-2009, Projected 2010—2014
Figure 3-22: U.S. Imports of Fluorescent Tube Lamps (FTLs), Actual 2005-2009, Projected 2010-2014
Ballasts
Figure 3-23: Comparison of Source of Imports of Ballast for Fluorescent Lighting, 2005 to 2009
HID Lighting
Figure 3-25: Market Share of Top Five Discharge Lighting Exporters, 2005-2009(e)
Roadway Lighting
Figure 3-28: World Market for Illuminated Signs, Large Displays, 2005-2009 ($ billions)
Figure 3-31: Shifts in Market Share by the Top Five Exporters of Illuminated Signage, 2005-2009
Digital Billboards
Figure 3-34: World Market for Illuminated Signs, Actual 2005-2009, Projected 2010-2014
Figure 3-35: U.S. Market for Illuminated Signs, Actual 2005-2009, Projected 2010-2014
Vehicle Lighting
Figure 3-41: U.S. Exports of Sealed Beam Headlights for Vehicle, 2005-2009 (in millions of units and Average
Selling price)
Figure 3-42: U.S. Vehicular Lighting Systems Actual 2005-2009, Projected 2010-2014
Figure 3-47: Price Differential between CCFL and LED Backlighting for LCD TV, 1st Quarter, 2010
3D TV
LED Drivers
LED Fabs
Figure 3-52: U.S. Imports of LEDs in and Average Selling Price in Cents per Unit, 2005-2009 ($ millions)
Figure 3-53: U.S. Imports of LEDs by top three Countries of Origin, 2005-2009 ($ millions)
Figure 3-55: U.S. Exports of LEDs in units and Average Selling Price, 2005-2009(e) ($)
LED Pricing
Figure 3-58: Actual and Projected Markets for LEDs through 2014 ($ billions)
Market Findings
Primary Findings
Secondary Findings
Figure 4-1: Correlations between Longevity and Consumption of Electricity, 1975 and 2005
Conference in Kyoto
Figure 4-2: U.S. Sources of Energy Used for Generation of Electricity, 2009
Table 4-1: DOE Requirements per EISA for General Service Incandescent Lamps, 2007
Table 4-2: Steps Taken by Signers of the Kyoto Protocol (Annex I countries)
World Economy
U.S. Stimulus
Figure 4-5: Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) over 10 Years of Single 100-W Light Bulb Compared to an
equivalent 11-W LED Lamp, Lit 8 hrs/day
Figure 4-6: Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) over 10 Years of Single 40-W Light Bulb Compared to an
equivalent three 1-W LED Lamp, Lit 2 hrs/day
Roadway Lighting
Trends in Large Scale Outdoor Displays
Digital Billboards
Trends in Signage
Street Furniture
Trends in Electronics
Smaller is Better
Manufacturing Capacity
Vehicular Lighting
Figure 4-8: Comparison of U.S. Expenditures on Entertainment Electronics and Purchase of a New Car ($)
Figure 5-1: Big Three Lighting Companies Participation in Semiconductors, Annual Sales ($ millions)
OLEDs
Design of Luminaires
Nanotechnology
Lighting Controls
EnOcean
Figure 5-2: EnOcean Diagram
Smart Grid
Research Groups
Vehicle Research
Thousands of Companies
Company Profiles
Performance
Performance
Table 6-11: Cooper Industries plc Excess Fair Value of Reporting Units ($ millions)
Performance
Performance
Performance
Performance
Performance
Performance
Performance
LED Roadway Lighting Ltd. - Startup company making LED street lamps
Performance
Performance
Performance
Performance
Performance
Figure 6-16: Optoelectronics Business Unit, Net Income and Sales, Calendar Year, 20005-2009
Technology Licensing
UniversalPHOLED™ Materials
Technology Transfer
Performance
Appendix
Table A-1: Selected terms
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