GEORGE S.

DAY

Each of the articles in this special section makes a distinctive

contribution to the long-standing controversy over the mana-
gerial value of the product life cycle concept. This overview
is designed to put these articles into a broader perspective
by analyzing the major issues of identification, forecasting,
and strategy formulation encountered in any meaningful
application of the product life cycle.

THE PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE:

ANALYSIS AND APPLICATIONS
ISSUES

T HERE is tremendous ambivalence toward the

product life cycle concept within marketing. On
one hand, the concept has an enduring appeal
because of the intuitive logic of the product birth
—» growth —» maturity —* decline sequence based
on a biological analogy. As such, it has considerable
descriptive value when used as a systematic frame-
work for explaining market dynamics.
However, the simplicity of the product life cycle
concept makes it vulnerable to criticism, especially
when it is used as a predictive model for anticipating
when changes will occur and one stage will succeed
another, or as a normative model which attempts
to prescribe what alternative strategies should be
considered at each stage. Underlying these criti-
cisms are five basic issues that must be faced in
any meaningful application of the concept:
• How should the product-market be defined
for the purpose of life cycle analysis?
George S. Day is Professor of Marketing, University of
Toronto-
• What are the factors that determine the
progress of the product through the stages
of the life cycle?
• Can the present hfe cycle position of the
product be unambiguously established?
• What is the potential for forecasting the key
parameters, including the magnitude of sales,
the duration of the stages, and the shape of
the curve?
• What role should the product life cycle con-
cept play in the formulation of competitive
strategy?
Each of the articles in this special section pro-
vides useful insights into one or more of these
application issues. In addition, each article adds
support to the emerging consensus that the product
life cycle represents the outcome or summary of
numerous forces for change present in the relevant
product-market, each force acting in concert with
others to facilitate or inhibit the rate of product
sales growth or decline. This perspective on the
nature of the product life cycle will also guide the
analysis of the application issues in this overview
article.

Journal of Marketing
60 / Journal of Marketing, Fall 1981 Vol. 45 (Fall 1981), 60-67.
What Is A Product-Market for the
Purpose of Life Cycle Analysis?
A problem that confronts all strategy analysis is
the variety of levels of aggregation that characterize
hierarchical product structures, ranging from the
generic product class and industry, to the product
type or form, and down to variants and brands.
The extreme positions on the question of appropriate
level of aggregation for life cycle analysis are: look
at all levels, on the grounds that they each yield
different insights, or forget the whole concept
because generic product classes serve such enduring
needs that meaningful trends are not usually
apparent, while product forms are so volatile that
it is difficult to judge with accuracy in which stage
of the life cycle the form is or when it will proceed
to the next stage (Dhalla and Yuspeh 1976). In-
termediate positions include those who argue that
since managers cannot control product forms or
classes, the analysis must be confined to the brand
level (Enis, LaGarce, and Prell 1977).
The relevant question is which level best cap-
tures the consequences of the underlying forces
for change. However, there are many dimensions
along which a product can change. When is a change
sufficiently distinct to justify a separate hfe cycle
analysis? One useful answer is proposed by Abell
(1980), who defines a product as the apphcation
of a distinct technology to the provision of a
particular function for a specific customer group.
Only when there is a change along one or more
of these dimensions that involves a sharp departure
from the present strategies of the participating
competitors is a separate hfe cycle necessary. The
advantage of this heuristic can be seen from its
application to problem situations that in the past
have fueled enduring doubts about the life cycle:
• The timeless consumer product. Was the
chairman of Procter and Gamble justified in
saying they don't believe in the product life
cycle by citing the case of Tide synthetic
laundry detergent which was introduced in
1947 and was still growing in 1976? During
the 29-year lifetime, it had undergone 55
significant modifications in response to
changes in consumer preferences, laundry
habits, washing machines, and fabrics (Hop-
kins 1977). Clearly they have successfully
adapted this product to extended maturity
without significantly changing either func-
tion, technology, or customer.
• The multiple function material. Is there a
meaningful hfe cycle for a material such as
The Product Life Cycle: Analysis and Applications Issues / 61
nylon, which is subsequently processed
further to be suitable for different applica-
tions such as carpeting, tire cord, and ho-
siery? (Levitt 1965) The answer is certainly
no, for each application requires an entirely
different strategy. Indeed, it would be more
meaningful to construct a hfe cycle for syn-
thetic carpet fibers, for example.
• Technological substitution processes. Until
the mid-sixties, beverage cans were almost
exclusively three-piece steel/tin combina-
tions, until two-piece aluminum cans began
to replace them. Then in the mid-seventies
two-piece steel cans were developed to re-
capture the position of steel (Machnic 1980).
But during this period, neither the functions
nor the customers of metal cans were
changed. Thus a new product hfe cycle was
not necessary.
• Sequentially unfolding segments. Some life
cycles are a composite of the sequential
introduction and development of a basic
function/ technology within a series of related
customer segments. Cardozo(1979) describes
how a specialized communications system
was first accepted for process control ap-
plications and then extended to security ap-
plications within the same adopting firms.
After two years a new segment for combined
security and process applications was identi-
fied.
As each of these examples demonstrates, prod-
uct life cycles summarize the effects of many
concurrent changes. While these influences must
be understood, they may not dictate an entirely
new product life cycle.
What Are The Underlying Factors
That Determine The Parameters of the
Life Cycle?
Numerous forces have been hypothesized to in-
fluence the sequence and duration of the stages,
the shape of the curve, and the magnitude of sales
at each transition to a new stage. Past attempts
to validate the existence of the hfe cycle have
uncovered many shapes, durations, and sequences
(Buzzell 1966, Cox 1967, PolU and Cook 1969, Rink
and Swan 1979). These efforts have not been
matched by systematic research into the reasons
for the difference between shapes. Yet, this knowl-
edge is critical to informed forecasting and strategy
development. The hmited evidence, however, sug-
 gests that while most of the underlying forces are
operating during several stages, their relative
importance changes during the transition from one
stage to another.
Initial Trajectory Stage
Some new products, such as industrial robots,
diffuse very slowly into their potential market, while
other products virtually bypass this stage. The
determinants of the rate of diffusion (Zaltman and
Stiff 1973) include:
• The perceived comparative advantage of the
new product relative to the best available
alternative.
• The perceived risk, or the subjective estimate
by a prospective buyer of the probability of
a negative outcome (Webster 1969). This risk
is a joint function of the financial exposure
in the event of failure coupled with uncer-
tainty as to the outcome. This uncertainty
has many origins, including an unpredictable
rate of technical obsolescence, the uneven
quality of early production runs, or a lack
of product standardization. Thus, potential
videodisc buyers may wait to see whether
grooved or grooveless capacitance systems
will dominate solid-state laser systems, since
the discs are incompatible.
• Barriers to adoption (such as commitment
to existing facilities or incompatibility with
existing values) will slow acceptance even
when other factors are supportive.
• Information and availability. Not only must
the product be readily available (for purchase
and servicing), but the buyer must be aware
of the product and informed of the benefits.
Jnßuencing the rate of diffusion. Much of the
research on diffusion of innovations has dealt with
information variables and the capacity of formal
and informal sources to reduce perceived risk. The
value of this work for the purposes of Ufe cycle
analysis is compromised by taking the comparative
advantages of the product as fixed. In reality these
are conditional variables that can be influenced by
the strategic decisions of both the pioneer firm and
the followers. Thus, manufacturers can invest in
promotion and distribution coverage to increase
awareness, expand sales activity to induce trial,
reduce risk by providing technical service, warran-
ties and after-sales service support, and enhance
the relative advantage by reducing the delivered
price or adding new features.
Experience effects. The only systematic consid-
62 / Journal of Marketing, Fall 1981
eration of the relationship of strategic decisions and
life cycle consequences has come from analyses
of the effect of cumulative industry experience on
average industry costs. This experience effect is
reliably present in high technology industries, where
real cost declines of 15-30% with each doubling
of industry output are consistently encountered
(Abell and Hammond 1979, Boston Consulting
Group 1972, Yelle 1979). Reduced costs should
eventually lead to lowered prices, which in turn
will improve the comparative advantage of the new
product. It is a highly interactive effect, for an
increased comparative advantage should accelerate
the rate of acceptance and hence the rate of accu-
mulation of experience. Whether this acceleration
of demand will materiahze depends on the initial
pricing strategies and the persistence of the remain-
ing barriers to diffusion.
Other exogenous factors. The early history of
many new products is shaped by factors beyond
the immediate industry and the potential substitutes.
Included in this category are changes in the position
of complementary products and changes in govern-
ment regulations and pohcies. For example, the
demand for electronic home entertainment products
such as television and videodiscs was or is depen-
dent on the growth of broadcast capabihties and
programming. Similarly, the growth of new compu-
ter-based office services is contingent on the avai-
lability of software. The impact of government
policies can be especially dramatic, for they fre-
quently are abrupt events. Consider the impact on
demand for automatic teller machines of a ruling
that these machines are not considered branches
in states where branch banking is not permitted.
The Transition to Rapid Growth
A number of factors, which were latent during the
period when the initial uncertainties were being
resolved, assume importance as growth accelerates.
Changes in the relationships with substitute
products. These changes reflect improvements in
the price-performance ratio as experience accumu-
lates, designs are improved, new features are added,
and the real price declines. This will determine how
quickly the new product will replace the substitute,
and how much of the volume will be replaced.
Substitution will also be triggered by large jumps
in the price of the substitute, as happened in
1974-1975 when powdered soft drink mixes grew
rapidly at the expense of canned fruit juices, which
had to absorb large sugar price increases.
Competitive entry strategies. In many product-
markets the strategic window seems to open at
roughly the same time for most potential entrants.
First, the initial acceptance of the product helps
reduce the uncertainties that clouded the early
prospects. This uncertainty may have also en-
couraged experimentation with alternative process
technologies, designs, and marketing strategies. The
results of these experiments and ongoing marketing
research reduce the uncertainty to a level that is
tolerable for larger firms with lower risk profiles—
witness recreational vehicles, video games, and
solar heating (Porter 1980). A second incentive is
the widespread belief that it is "easier" to gain
share in high growth markets. The combined impact
of many competitors, each investment spending to
gain a sustainable market position, may create
significant acceleration in the rate of growth.
The influence of repeat buying. Sooner or later
a significant proportion of sales in a product cate-
gory will be repeat or replacement purchases. As
Midgeley (1981) shows, the shape of the life cycle
curve can be explained by the ratio of mean adoption
time (which depends on the duration of the diffusion
process) to mean interpurchase time. This analysis
helps explain why the life cycles for many of the
durable products descnbed by Harrell and Taylor
(1981) in this issue exhibit a primary sales cycle
followed by one or more recycles at a lower level
of sales. In markets with shorter repurchase inter-
vals, the repeat buying combines with initial pur-
chases as a further source of growth.
Does growth induce growth? As the market
expands, there are new opportunities for segmenta-
tion, and the adaptation of the product or service
to better fit the needs of customer groups whose
requirements were previously too modest to be
served with a tailored offering. These niches, of
course, make the rapidly growing market even more
attractive to prospective entrants.
Evolution to Maturity
As the cumulative sales penetration approaches the
ultimate market capacity and the growth rate slows,
the dominating factor becomes the replacement rate.
However, this is not a period of stability, for the
ultimate potential is frequently an elusive target
and new forces come into play.
Expanding market potential. While the market
capacity for use or consumption may be stable on
a per capita basis, there still could be expansion
from demographic changes that cause the target
market to expand or shrink. At the same time,
changes in social or economic trends infiuencing
underlying needs—such as protection against prop-
erty theft, or energy conservation—will affect con-
sumers' demands for end products such as security
devices and energy saving products, which filters
The Product LÜ^Í Cycle: Analysis and Applications Issues / 63
back to component suppliers.
Buyer learning. This becomes an increasingly
significant factor with repeat buying and the accu-
mulation of usage experience. The most general
consequences are systematic shifts in the elasticities
or response coefficients. Over the long run, as
products approach a famihar commodity status,
buyers become more price sensitive and less re-
sponsive to advertising and promotion efforts either
by the industry or by individual competitors. While
these hypotheses have almost become conventional
wisdom, there is growing evidence of their validity
(Erickson and Montgomery 1980).
Competitive turbulence. One version of the
product Ufe cycle incorporates a distinct competitive
turbulence stage (Wasson 1978), preceding the ma-
turity stage. According to this analysis, the slow-
down in the growth rate that signals impending
maturity reveals excess capacity and triggers a
competitive battle for market share. This pattern
has been partially corroborated by Boston Consult-
ing Group (Conley 1970) analyses of rapid declines
in real prices, triggered by an unexpected economic
slowdown, the desire of the pioneer to minimize
further share erosion, or a major thrust by a new
entrant. Despite the importance of these hypothe-
sized relationships of changes in price, competitive
structure, and Ufe cycle stage, there is virtually
no direct empirical evidence. Some indirect support
comes from the analyses of the PIMS data base
reportedbyThorelli and Burnett (1981) in this issue.
There is, however, no support for a further
hypothesis that market shares will stabilize after
the period of competitive stability. Indeed, Buzzell
(1981) has found that mature markets tend to become
less concentrated as the larger firms lose share
because they cannot maintain their initial cost ad-
vantage.
The Onset of Decline
One recent analysis of declining industries (Harrigan
1980) observed that there had been virtually no
attempt to sort out the factors that influence the
strategic choices managers face during a decline.
This study found that some declining environments
were much more favorable than others in terms
of long run sales, profitability, and price stability.
Generally, the least favorable environments were
the result of fashion or demographic changes be-
cause they were much less predictable than declines
created by technological change. An important
conclusion was that some declining markets were
more favorable than others if there were pockets
of enduring demand, which could be protected from
incursions by displaced competitors. It may also
prove useful to distinguish a stage of pétrification
following decline if sales stabiUze at some lower
level (Michael 1971).
Can The Present Life Cycle Position
Be Unambiguously Identified?
The notion of distinct stages, which reflect different
opportunities and threats with respect to marketing
strategy and profit potential (Kotier 1980), is an
integral part of the product life cycle concept. The
usefulness of such analyses is frequently compro-
mised by the elusive nature of the boundaries
between the stages.
Some of the boundary identification problems
stem from the sensitivity of life cycle analyses to
the choice of measures (Wind 1981). Should one
use unit volume, current or constant dollar total
revenue, or per capita consumption to measure
sales? What adjustments should be made to elimi-
nate the effects of economic conditions? Consumer
durables and industrial materials are especially sus-
ceptible to changes in economic activity that can
cloud the interpretation of the prospects for the
product.
Further complicating the identification of boun-
daries is the variety of possible life cycle patterns.
This makes it unlikely that a product's position in
its life cycle can be estabhshed simply by observing
changes in the past sales pattern. The imphcations
of the difference between a temporary or even an
extended pause in sales growth versus a true topping
out of growth are profound. Thus, one cannot avoid
forecasting the future sales path of the product if
sensible judgments about the present life cycle
position are to be made.
What Is The Potential For Forecasting
The Key Parameters of the Life Cycle?
The ability of a forecasting model to account for
the driving forces during the various stages of the
life cycle generally determines the accuracy of the
predictions. As support for this assertion we can
contrast the promising track record of diffusion
models that are suited to the rapid growth stage
with the relative absence of successful forecasting
models for the maturity and decline stages.
First Purchase Diffusion Models
The most popular models such as the Bass (1969)
model, share four distinguishing features (Wind
1981):
64 / Journal of Marketing, Fall 1981
• a constraint on long run growth within a level
of saturation
• an S-shaped diffusion curve
• an assumption about the homogeneity of
consumers
• no explicit consideration of marketing deci-
sion variables
When these assumptions are not unduly limiting,
and there is sufficient prior sales data to obtain
stable parameter estimates (Heeler and Hustad
1980), then reasonable forecasts can be achieved.
However, the experience of Tigert and Farivar
(1981) with optical scanning equipment for super-
markets, reported in this issue, suggests this fre-
quently is not the case.
Improvements to the forecasting accuracy of
these models have been sought mainly through the
addition of decision variables (Bass 1980, Dolan
and Jeuland 1981, Lillien 1980, Robinson and Lak-
hani 1975). However, as Mahajan and MuUer (1979)
point out in their review of these efforts, progress
has been piecemeal as the extensions have usually
incorporated only one decision variable at a time.
This is partly a consequence of attempts to make
the model as generally applicable as possible. Judg-
ing by the success of the proprietary model devel-
oped for analyzing the housewares market, de-
scribed by Harrell and Taylor (1981) in this issue,
there may be a greater payoff from the development
of models that incorporate a rich array of marketing
variables but are only applicable to a narrow set
of products.
Forecasting Repeat and Replacement Sales
The relationship of the initial purchase rate with
the timing of repurchases dictates both the duration
of the rapid growth stage and the eventual shape
of the life cycle curve. Yet, other than work on
consumer nondurables (Ehrenberg 1972), httle is
known of the factors that influence the timing of
repeat or replacement sales. Even this work is of
limited value for it only applies within estabhshed
markets where there is no sales trend. However,
work by Midgeley (1981) and Harrell and Taylor
(1981) provides a promising basis for further
progress in this area.
Forecasting the Maturity and Decline Stages
A recent review of the state of strategic planning
concluded that "probably the area in which strategic
planning has performed the poorest is with the well
estabhshed product line that has only average
growth . . . what has created disaster for the
 planners is the difficulty in accurately determining
the maturity of a product, particularly when outside
forces can change that designation almost over-
night" (Business Week 1978, p. 68). No single reason
for the poor forecasting performance has been
osilated, other than the general inability of sales
forecasting models to incorporate forecasts of
important underlying forces that determine whether
a product will stagnate, decline, or revive. While
many of these factors are undoubtedly industry-
specific, there are numerous variables that have
been hypothesized to behave as leading indicators
of the top-out point when product sales growth slows
to the GNP rate (Patel and Younger 1978, Porter
1980, Wilson 1969). Unfortunately there has been
no systematic study of the predictive validity of
these variables.
The essence of forecasting during the decline
stage is the recognition that while products provide
specific functions, the customers seek the benefits
delivered by the product. Thus, the rate of decline
will depend on changes in the demand for the
benefits, or the ability of emerging substitute prod-
ucts to do a superior job of delivering the benefits.
Where the latter threat is dominant the issue is
the rate of penetration by the new product, and
the forecasting problem has come full circle.
The Role of the Product Life Cycle in
the Formulation of Strategy
The derivation of generalized strategic prescriptions
for each stage of the life cycle has been widely
criticized—and for good reason. Such prescriptions
are bound to be misleading for they assume a single
role for the hfe cycle as a determinant of strategy,
structure, and performance. Unfortunately this role
is implicitly endorsed by a majority of marketing
textbooks through an emphasis on strategic guide-
lines appropriate to the various stages. A more
realistic view is that life cycle analysis serves several
different roles in the formulation of strategy, such
as an enabling condition, a moderating variable,
or a consequence of strategic decisions.
The life cycle serves as an enabling condition
in the sense that the underlying forces that inhibit
or facilitate growth create opportunities and threats
having strategic implications. Market growth—or
the expectation of growth—enables competitors to
enter the market and creates opportunities for
offerings directed to segments previously uneco-
nomic to serve.
The stage of the life cycle also acts as a moderat-
ing variable through its influence on the value of
market share position and the profitability conse-
The Product Life Cycle: Analysis and Applications Issues / 65
quences of strategic decisions. This role is recog-
nized through the inclusion of product growth rates
or life cycle stages as a major dimension in virtually
all portfolio classification models. Finally, a product
life cycle forecast is not a fait accompli, which
can only be reacted to, but instead is only one
of several scenarios that are conditional on
competitive actions.
A Summary Perspective on Strategic Relevance
The product life cycle is a versatile framework for
organizing contingent hypotheses about appropriate
strategy alternatives {Hofer 1975) and directing
management attention toward anticipation of the
consequences of the underlying dynamics of the
served market. To enhance both the descriptive
and explanatory value of the concept, much more
attention needs to be directed toward understanding
recurring patterns of successful strategies organized
according to the stages of the life cycle models
that are adapted to differences in the important
underlying forces.
Overview of Papers in the Special
Section
This special section was motivated by the continuing
controversy over whether or how marketing deci-
sion makers actually adapt the product life cycle
concept to their needs. Consequently, the emphasis
is on empirical papers that address the realities of
identifying, forecasting, and applying the concept
in a wide variety of contexts.
The first set of four papers is devoted to specific
applications. Harrell and Taylor discuss the validity
and strategic value of a model used for assessing
new houseware products. This model supports deci-
sion makers effectively because it is built on an
intimate understanding of recurring patterns in the
housewares market. The second paper by Quails,
Olshavsky, and Michaels complements this by
documenting the rate at which life cycles have been
shortening in the overall appliance industry. Tigert
and Farivar next show that life cycle models can
be effectively adapted to high technology industrial
markets. Their evaluation of the ability of a modified
Bass model to forecast initial installations of super-
market optical scanning equipment clearly shows
that these models can play a significant supportive
rote so long as the limitations are recognized. The
final paper in the first section by Ayal examines
the ability of a well-known extension of the life
cycle to explain international trade patterns and
finds that astute strategies by exporters can often
defeat the predictions.
 The second set of papers deals with the
soundness of the theoretical framework for product
Ufe cycle analysis. Thorelli and Burnett set the scene
by analyzing characteristic patterns of strategy,
structure, and performance over time, using the
PÏMS data base for industrial products. Their results
cast into doubt any interpretation of the product
life cycle as a fundamental dependent variable
guiding strategic decisions. Midgley then addresses
a major gap in life cycle theory by examining the
underlying processes that influence the shape of
the hfe cycle. The ratio of mean interpurchase time
to mean adoption time is found to be a very useful
forecasting variable.
An important theme linking all the papers in
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(June). 1113-22.
Sproles. George B. (1981), "Analyzing Fashion Life Cycles:
Principles and Perspectives," Journal of Marketing, 45
(FaU).
TeUis, Gerard J. and C. Merle Crawford (1981), "An
Evolutionary Approach to Product Growth Theory,"
r Keep Current
with these books
Macromarketing: A Canadian Perspective
Donald N. Thompson, Patricia Simmie, Louise
Heslop, and Stanley J. Shapiro, eds.
318 pages $8/Members $12/Nonmemhers
This book is the proceedings of the Third Tri-
ennial Canadian Marketing workshop held at
York University, Toronto, in June 1979, where
the meetings focussed on macromarketing in a
Canadian context and included the areas of
consumerism, consumer protection, legislation
and public policy and its impact, social indica-
tors, social issues and the non-legislative regu-
latory process. Revised from the oral presenta-
tions given, these papers reflect the discussions
held at the conference and cover a broad range
of topics. There is a short introduction to each
paper in both English and French.
The Product Life Cycle: Analysis and Applications Issues / 67
Journal of Marketing, 45 (Fall).
Thorelli, Hans B. and Stephen C. Burnett (1981), "The
Nature of Product Life Cycles for Industrial Goods
Businesses," Journal of Marketing, 45 (Fall).
Tigert. Douglas and Behrooz Farivar (1981), "The Bass
New Product Growth Model: A Sensitivity Analysis for
a High Technology Product," Journal of Marketing. 45
(Fall).
Wasson, Chester R. (1978), Dynamic Competitive Strategy
and Product Life Cycles, St. Charles, IL: Challenge
Books.
Webster, Frederick E., Jr. (1969), "New Product Adoption
in Industrial Markets: A Framework for Analysis,"
Journal of Marketing, 33 (July), 35-39.
Wilson, Aubrey (1969), "Industrial Marketing Research in
Britain." Journal of Marketing Research. 6 (February),
15-28.
Wind, Yoram (1981). Product Policy: Concepts, Methods,
and Strategy, Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Yelle, Louis E. (1979), "The Learning Curve: Historical
Review and Comprehensive Survey," Decision Sciences,
10, 302-328.
Zaltman, Gerald and Ronald Stiff (1972), "Theories of
Diffusion," in Consumer Behavior: Theoretical Sources.
Scott Ward and Thomas S. Robertson, eds. Englewood
Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Marketing Education: Current Status And A
View For The 198O's
Patrick E. Murphy and Eugene R. Laczniak
Monograph Series No. 11. 106 pages
$5/Members $7/Nonmembers
A baseline study of current practices in mar-
keting education, this new monograph will be
of great interest to all concerned with existing
and future trends in marketing education. Pre-
senting the results of a survey of 225 marketing
department chairs, this book provides data on
undergraduate, graduate and doctoral pro-
grams and includes selected abstracts from past
Educators' Proceedings and some journal articles.
To order these two books contact: Order De-
partment, American Marketing Association,
250 S. Wacker Drive, Chicago, IL 60606,
(312)648-0536.