Newfoundland

& Labrador
Votes 2021
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted over two days including February 20th and
21st 2021 among a sample of 1243 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in the Province of Newfoundland &
Labrador. The reported data is among the 1012 adults who indicated they had either voted, or had ordered a
ballot before the February 19th deadline. Among the sample of 1243 adults, 118 (9.5%) indicated they would not
vote or were ineligible, another 113 (9.1%) indicated they had not ordered their ballot by the deadline.

The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on
landlines and cellular phones. The sample contains 660 people who indicated they had already voted and
another 352 who confirmed they would vote and had ordered a ballot by mail. The survey is intended to
represent the eligible voting population in Newfoundland & Labrador according to Census 2016, it is weighted for
age, gender, region and vote status.

The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.08% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each
subsample.

The frame consisted of Mainstreet Research’s commercial directory which includes both current landlines and
past directories ported to cellular lines. It also includes an RDD component. The Directory components are 30%
cellular lines and 70% landlines. The RDD component was 80% cellular lines and 20% landlines.

The results are weighted for age, gender and region in the case of those who voted and those who ordered a
ballot, in addition, the combined popular vote total was weighted for reported turnout by Elections
Newfoundland (41% voted on or before Feb. 20, 59% have yet to vote) . The poll was paid for using the
Mainstreet Research public polling fund.
 Did you vote or will you be voting in the
Provincial Election?*

* 118 people told us they were either ineligible or would not vote, another 113 indicated they had
not ordered their ballot in time
 And how did you cast your ballot?*

* This question was only asked to those who indicated they had already cast a ballot
 And what best describes your status in
terms of casting your ballot?*

* This question was only asked to those who indicated they had not yet voted, but had said they would,
113 respondents told us they had not ordered their ballot in time
 Now, who did you vote for?*

* This question was asked only to those who indicated they had already voted on the day/s of the survey n=660
 And which party or candidate will you
vote for?*

* This question was asked to those who had not yet voted, but who confirmed they ordered a ballot
before the deadline of February 19th at 8pm
 And which party or candidate will you
vote for?*

* This question was asked to those who had not yet voted, but who confirmed they ordered a ballot
before the deadline of February 19th at 8pm
 Who did you vote for, or are planning to
vote for? (Combined totals)*

* This is a combination of the two samples, those who indicated they had voted, plus those who said
they had ordered a ballot and would vote
 If a brand new election started, how
would you vote or would lean towards
voting, if you could vote safely today?*

* This question was asked to all survey participants

 Questionnaire (Page 1)

Screening Question: Are you over 18 years of age and eligible to vote in the Provincial election? Yes, Screen in, No, Screen out

Q1. First off, did you vote or will you be voting?

1. Yes, I Already Voted [ route to Q2]

2. No, but I’m Certain To Vote [route to Q3]

3. No, I Won’t Vote or I’m ineligible to vote routes to: 16. CRTC_Outro

Q2. And how do you or have you cast your ballot?

1. By mail [to Q4]

2. In person during the Advance Vote [to Q4]

Q3. And what best describes your status in terms of casting your ballot?

1. I ordered my ballot by February 19th and I’ve received it [route to Q5]

2. I ordered my ballot by February 19th and I have yet to receive the package [route to Q5]
3. I did not order my ballot by February 19th – Outro and end

Q4. Now, it’s important to remember this question is “which party or candidate[emphasis on did] did you vote for” not who would
you vote for today or tomorrow. If you’ve changed your mind since, that’s ok, we will ask you about that in a minute. Now, which
party or candidate did you vote for?

1. The Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador led by Andrew Furey [routes to Q8]

2. The Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador led by Ches Crosbie [routes to Q8]

3. The New Democratic Party of Newfoundland and Labrador led by Alison Coffin [routes to Q8]

4. The Newfoundland and Labrador Alliance led by Graydon Pelley routes [routes to Q8]

5. Another Party or independent Candidate [routes to Q8]

6. I’d rather not say [route to Q7]

Q5. And which party or candidate will you vote for?

1. The Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador led by Andrew Furey [routes to Q8]

2. The Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador led by Ches Crosbie [routes to Q8]

3. The New Democratic Party of Newfoundland and Labrador led by Alison Coffin [routes to Q8]

4. The Newfoundland and Labrador Alliance led by Graydon Pelley routes [routes to Q8]

5. Another Party or independent candidate [routes to Q8]

6. Undecided [route to Q6]

 Questionnaire (Page 2)

Q6. And which party or candidate might you be leaning towards?

1. The Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador led by Andrew Furey [routes to Q8]

2. The Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador led by Ches Crosbie [routes to Q8]

3. The New Democratic Party of Newfoundland and Labrador led by Alison Coffin [routes to Q8]

4. The Newfoundland and Labrador Alliance led by Graydon Pelley [routes to Q8]

5. Another Party [routes to Q8]

6. Undecided [route to Q7]

Q7. Now the last question about the election before we ask you a bit about you. If a brand new election started,
how would you vote or would lean towards voting, if you could vote safely today?

1. The Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador led by Andrew Furey

2. The Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador led by Ches Crosbie

3. The New Democratic Party of Newfoundland and Labrador led by Alison Coffin

4. The Newfoundland and Labrador Alliance led by Graydon Pelley routes

5. Another Party or independent candidate

• Responses to all questions were randomized except for the Undecided options in Q5 and Q6
• The poll was paid for using the Mainstreet Research Public Polling Fund.

For media inquiries about this poll, please email

quito@mainstreetresearch.ca or call (416)570-3762.