CENV6088 2009-10

Draft questions for review : (solutions in blue)

Tom Cherrett, Ben Waterson
October 2009

Exam Duration : 3 hours

Answer : Any three questions, including at least one from Part A

SECTION A
QUESTION 1

a) Define transport planning and describe its purpose? (5 marks)

• Process of understanding current travel patterns and trends

• Understanding how these trends are likely to change in response to changes in land-use
and/or the implementation of transport policies and projects.
• Development of scheme to address transport need or problem
• To predict the likely consequences of alternative actions
• To facilitate the decision making process.
• To assess the costs and benefits of implementing transport schemes

b) With the help of a diagram, describe the transport and land use development cycle
(5 marks)

Land
Development

Land Transport System

Value Improvements

Accessibility

1. The development of land results in new travel demands.

2. This might mean new trips originating from the area, or new trips attracted to the area, or
both.
3. New travel demands will then require improvements to the transport system.
4. Such improvements increase the accessibility of the land, thereby making it more
valuable.
5. Improved land values influence the location decisions of individuals and firms, once again
spurring new land development and starting the cycle again.
c) The 1998 Transport White Paper promised a ‘new deal’ for transport, what were the
main criticisms of the ‘old deal’ in terms of the transport policy of the previous
Conservative Government? (8 marks)

• Transport Policy 1979 to 1997 marked by a return to private ownership of nearly all
transport services and a large amount of infrastructure.
o Continual tension between the commercial freedom which competition demands
and the degree of regulation needed to ensure public convenience and confidence
o Market disciplines and freedom of choice were not a rational way to resolve these
tensions: needed an integrated transport policy
• Privatisation and deregulation of public transport seen to have failed the passenger
because they fragmented public transport networks and ignored the public interest:
o Difficult to provide easily accessible, unbiased information about competing
services,
o Difficult to support multi-modal travel through convenient connections and
through-ticketing
• Predict and provide in transport infrastructure provision- specifically roads was
unsustainable:
o in the face of growing and overwhelming evidence on environmental impacts
o New obligations to meet targets on climate change meant a new approach was
urgently needed.
• Lack of direction and leadership:
o National transport debate called for individuals to change behaviour rather than
develop a national strategy
o 1996 Transport Green Paper – a skilful restatement of the problems
o Wait and see approach to addressing environmental targets – leaving action to
Local Authorities
o 1994 RCEP report targets dismissed

d) The findings from the 1994 SACTRA report in terms of the impacts of ‘induced
traffic’ had a major impact on transport policy. What were its main conclusions and
why were they important? (6 Marks)

• In a well-developed road network, operating at or close to capacity improvements to that

network produce only marginal benefits or might even create disbenefits.
o Benefits generated by schemes are short-lived as the time savings gained by
are lost when a new road fills up and congestion returns.
o Induced traffic could make the impact of a scheme negative,
o More typically the benefits would be smaller, but still positive.
o The environmental effects of induced traffic would be universally negative.
• Building new roads could generate additional journeys as motorists would make trips that
they would not otherwise have made.
• Overturned 30 years of thinking in which traffic generation was ignored in the economic
appraisal of road schemes because:
o it was harder to evaluate than benefits to existing traffic
o not regarded as significant for decision-making.
• Following the report, Government accepted likely significance of traffic generation should
be assessed in every scheme in national roads programme.

e) Why is co-operation within the EU on transport important and why has it

been so difficult to agree a common EU transport policy? (9 Marks)

• European single market based on free movement of people, capital, goods and
services.
Economy:
• Trade and free movement of labour
• role of transport sector in the EU - generates 10% of EU GDP and 10 million jobs
• tackling congestion/bottlenecks key to economic growth
• transport links vital to enlargement and inclusion of peripheral regions
Society:
• right to travel, study and work anywhere in the EU
• major road safety issues 40,000 deaths/year on EU roads
Environment:
• Mitigating the impacts of free movement by promoting more sustainable travel
• Recognising environmental problems cross national borders
- Founder members could not agree policy principles
o Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg pro liberal, market driven policies
o France, Germany and Italy pro state intervention and protectionism
- National governments reluctant to cede powers to the EU to:
o Negotiate on international transport agreements to EU
o Determine financial regulations in transport e.g. road user charging
- National governments reluctant to accept that EU policy targets are fully applicable
individual member states e.g. road safety

[TOTAL 33 MARKS]
QUESTION 2

a) Rod Eddington and Kate Barker raised some key concerns regarding the planning
process for major infrastructure projects in the UK. What were their concerns and
what reforms did they recommend to address them? (10 marks)

Problems with the process:

• It is unpredictable
• It is complicated
• It takes too long
o Heathrow Terminal 5 has been a 22 year process
• It is unnecessarily bureaucratic
• The appeals process is too complex
• It needed to provide greater clarity and certainty without comprising fairness and
thoroughness
• It is too political - need to take the politics out of big planning decisions

Reforms:
• Start with full and wide ranging public consultation
• Put direction from Ministers at the heart of the process at the outset
o By producing clear Ministerial statements of strategic planning objectives
• Then, take Ministers out of the process, removing their quasi judicial function
• Establish a new expert Independent Planning Commission to take the final planning
decision on specific major infrastructure schemes
• The new Independent Planning Commission should do judicial decision making and ensure
compliance with EU & Environmental Laws.
• Rationalise National Planning Guidance to inform Ministerial statements of strategic
objectives
• Update planning policy guidance on economic development for the first time in 14 years
o to make sure full account is taken of the economic benefits of development
applications in decision-making

b) The 2010 Ten Year Plan highlighted that the effects of increased take-up of
the Internet and teleworking on travel behaviour and working patterns were
uncertain, but potentially profound. Describe the ways in which 'virtual
mobility' might influence travel behaviour in the future?
(6 Marks)

• Lead to a recognition that you can achieve accessibility without physical

mobility
• Teleworking and teleconferencing may reduce daily commuter and business
travel
• Teleworking and teleconferencing may increase journey lengths for work-
related travel as irregular commuting supports living further away from the
workplace.
• E-mail, video-conferencing, file transfer protocol, extranet, etc are key to the
globalisation of business which will be a stimulus to long distance
(international) business travel.
• Trip substitution - work-related travel replaced by greater leisure travel
• Trip generation - workplace/time flexibility may support other types of travel
e.g. personal business, visiting friends, shopping etc.
c) A new traffic signal control algorithm has been developed which the software
developer’s claim makes it able to better allocate green time and reduce
overall journey times during peak periods. As the traffic manager in a busy
city, you decide to test it against the existing control system for a busy town
centre and decide to undertake a ‘before-and-after’ effects test. Describe how
you would design such a test using a group of drivers as subjects. What are
some of the key issues to be wary of that might impact on the results?
[8 Marks]

• Two matched groups who are as similar as possible

• One is the experimental and one the control group
• At start of study, both groups are given base-line measures (pre-test measures
…. Drive round under the existing signal control system)
• The treatment (new algorithm) is then applied to the experimental group
• The control group is given nothing (or a placebo)
• At the end of the experiment both groups are given the same measures (post-
test measures)…perception questions, actual JT’s recorded
• The net effects of the intervention can be determined
• Note: The experimenter effect! And also variability in terms of traffic
conditions

d) Describe the ways in which pricing is currently used as a policy instrument in

the UK and how this might change in the future?
[9 marks]
• Tool to manage demand for access to infrastructure and services
• Means of revenue generation or to pay for infrastructure e.g. PFI
• Current approaches include: Congestion charging
• Road and bridge tolls
• Private parking charges
• Fuel Duty
• Vehicle taxes
• Public Transport Fares
• Future options include: National Road User Charging
• RUC replacing vehicle taxes and fuel duty
• Likely implementation issues for RUC

[TOTAL 33 MARKS]
 SECTION B

QUESTION 3.

(a) Explain when you should use Gravity Models and Growth Factors Methods and
discuss the limitations of each. [10 marks]

Growth Factor Methods should be used when....

• An existing trip matrix is available
• You are trying to update an old trip matrix to current production and attraction
levels or estimate how current distribution patterns will change in the future
Gravity Models should be used when....
• An existing trip matrix is not available....
• You are trying to estimate directly a future time or for a new zone

Limitations of Gravity Model

• Difficulty in specifying deterrence function (really want to include different
modes, etc.)
• Assumes constant relationship for all travellers
• Lack of behavioural basis
Limitations of Growth Factor Methods
• Cannot add new zones (Tij = 0 in the base matrix cannot change)
• Reliant on accuracy of base matrix
• No concept of deterrence (cannot represent changes in travel times or
accessibility)

(b) A new residential development is being planned on the edge of a large town. It is
anticipated that 200 people will live in the new development and work at one of the
four major employers within the town (see table below).

Current Number Estimated Travel Time

Employer of Employees from New Development
University 1000 5 minutes
Hospital 1500 10 minutes
Shopping Centre 600 15 minutes
Port 800 20 minutes

Estimate the number of people in the development who will work at the Hospital. You
may assume a deterrence function of 1/(time in minutes)2 [10 marks]

Using singly (attraction constrained) gravity model

Pi = 200 people
Using number of employees for relative attractiveness

Employees Time Ajf(Tj)

2
Employer (j) (Aj) (Tj) f(Tj)=1/Tj Ajf(Tj) Total
University 1000 5 0.04 40 0.670
Hospital 1500 10 0.01 15 0.251
Shopping Centre 600 15 0.004444 2.667 0.045
Port 800 20 0.0025 2 0.034
TOTAL 59.66667

Proportion of people who will work at Hospital = 0.251,

so estimate is 200*0.251 = 50.28.
It is estimated that 50 people living in the development will work at the Hospital.

(c) A congestion charging scheme is proposed for private cars a small city. Discuss
any behavioural changes (apart from mode choice) that travellers within the town may
consider if the charge is introduced. [13 marks]

• Travellers may consider a wide range of other changes over different time periods.
• The first changes considered are likely to be changes in route or departure time
(may be able to leave later and arrive at the same time if congestion is reduced)
• Then travellers may make changes to their trip frequency (either changing the
number of existing trips or generating trips for travellers who chose not to travel
before) or choice of destination
• Longer term changes could be changing origin (e.g. moving house)
• Many of these choices are not independent, for example departure time and mode
choice.
[TOTAL 33 MARKS]
QUESTION 4.

(a) Describe the main advantages and disadvantages of Category Analysis methods
for predicting trip generation and identify when Category Analysis methods are not
suitable for use. [8 marks]

Main advantages
• Easy to develop relationships with no prior knowledge of their form
• Groupings are independent of the zoning system
• Do not have to identify individual effect of every explanatory factor
Main disadvantages
• No overall goodness-of-fit measure
• Large sample required
• Variation within socio-economic groups often ignored
• Cannot extrapolate beyond surveyed socio-economic groups
• Not suitable for use where a survey cannot be carried out (for example where
there is no local equivalent to the expected group of travellers or if the zone being
predicted is an external zone)

(b) Surveys of all people living in a residential area have been conducted to determine
levels of daily home-based shopping trip productions for people in each of six socio-
economic groups as follows, where the two numbers for each group represent [total
trips] and {number of people surveyed}

Age
Employment 0-20 21-60 61 +
Employed [42] {42} [91] {77} [3] {4}
Unemployed [25] {84} [87] {98} [18] {17}

While the total number of people living in the residential area is not expected to
change, the council is concerned that as the population gets older there may be an
increase in the total trips generated. Use Category Analysis methods to estimate the
percentage change in total trips if the number of people living in the residential area
changes to become as follows

Age
Employment 0-20 21-60 61 +
Employed 41 62 20
Unemployed 70 72 57

[9 marks]
Total number of trips recorded = 266

For the existing situation the trips per person for each socio-economic group
(trips/people) are
Age
Employment 0-20 21-60 61 +
Employed 1.000 1.182 0.750
 Unemployed 0.298 0.888 1.059

For new situation....

Total expected trips in each group (trip rate x expected people)

Age
Employment 0-20 21-60 61 +
Employed 41.0 73.3 15.0
Unemployed 20.8 63.9 60.4

Giving a total number of expected trips = 274.4

Percentage change in total trips = + 3.1%

(c) Describe the four main factors that would be included in a generalised cost
function and give an example of each for a trip by plane [8 marks]

• Time (either travelling to/from the airport, waiting or on the plane)

• Distance (either travelling to/from the airport or on the plane)
• Money (fare)
• Subjective factors (comfort, accessibility, reliability)

(d) A traveller needs to decide which mode of transport to use to travel across
London. Three possible options (taxi, bus, underground rail) are being considered.
The costs (£) and expected waiting and travel times (minutes) for each mode are given
in the table below. If the deterministic utility of a mode is given by U = 5 – 0.3 C –
0.6 W – 0.2 T, estimate the probability of the traveller choosing to travel by taxi. List
any assumptions you make. [8 marks]

Mode Cost (C) Waiting Time (W) Travel Time (T)

Taxi 8.50 3 14
Bus 2.00 8 18
Rail 3.50 5 16

• Using a logit model for the discrete choice

• Assuming that all options are independent (i.e. there is no need for a nested
model).

The deterministic utilities are Utaxi = -2.15, Ubus = -4, Urail = -2.25

Therefore eUtaxi = 0.116, eUbus = 0.018, eUrail = 0.105 and total = 0.240

Giving probability of the traveller choosing taxi of 0.116 ÷ 0.240 = 0.485

[TOTAL 33 MARKS]
QUESTION 5.

(a) Describe how preferred arrival times can be used to determine departure time
choices for travellers. [8 marks]

Preferred Arrival Times can be used to represent the reduced attractiveness of arriving
early or late at the destination. In its simplest form it can be represented as a linear
reduction in attractiveness for arriving early and a linear reduction following a step
change for arriving late (see diagram for a meeting at 10am)
Attractiveness

7 8 9 10 11 12
Arrival Time

This attractiveness can then be combined with estimated travel times to produce a
single ‘utility’ or perceived cost for each departure time which the traveller would
then choose between. The issue that the departure time choices made would influence
the travel times incurred must be dealt with through an iterative procedure, replicating
the effect often known as peak spreading.

(b) Due to high levels of congestion in a town centre, the local highway authority is
considering building a small bypass. The existing town centre route is 2.5 km long
and the proposed route for the bypass is 3.5 km long. The total current demand is 800
vehicles and the estimated speed flow curves for the two routes are given on the graph
below. It can be assumed that the perceived cost of a route is equal to its travel time
(in hours).
90
80
70 Proposed
Bypass
60
Speed (kmph)

50
40
30 Town Centre
20 Route

10
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200
Flow (vehicles)
(i) Calculate the travel time for vehicles on the town centre route before the bypass is
built. [2 marks]

Let Qc represent the flow on the Town Centre route

From the graph the speed on Town Centre route is

50 kmph if Qc < 100
(55-0.05Qc) kmph if 100 ≤ Qc ≤ 800
10 kmph if Qc > 900

So the average speed for 800 vehicles = 55-(0.05x800) = 15 kmph

The Town Centre route is 2.5km so has a travel time of 2.5/15 = 10 minutes

(ii) Assuming that the total demand does not change when the bypass is built,
calculate directly the equilibrium flows and therefore calculate the new travel time for
vehicles on the town centre route. [10 marks]

Let Qc, Vc, Tc represent the flow, speed and travel time (perceived cost) of the Town
Centre route
Let Qb, Vb, Tb represent the flow, speed and travel time (perceived cost) of the
Bypass route

From the graph the speed on Bypass route is

80 kmph if Qb < 400
(120-0.1Qb) kmph if 400 ≤ Qb ≤ 1100
10 kmph if Qb > 1100

First step, check if all use one route

• Qc=800 gives Vc=15 and Tc=2.5/15=0.167
• Qb=0 gives Vb=80 and Tb=3.5/80=0.04
Not all use town centre, bypass considered better
• Qc=0 gives Vc=50 and Tc=2.5/50=0.05
• Qb=800 gives Vb=40 and Tb=3.5/40=0.088
Not all use bypass, town centre considered better

At equilibrium Tc = Tb
Time=Distance/Speed
2.5/Vc = 3.5/Vb
7Vb = 5Vc

Assuming that equilibrium flows fall on the sloping part of the speed flow curves

For town centre Vc = 55-0.05Qc

For bypass Vb = 120-0.1Qb

Therefore require 840-0.7Qb = 275-0.25Qc

Total Flow 800 = Qb + Qc

Giving Equilibrium Solution of Qb = 582.4 (round to 582)
Qc = 217.6 (round to 218)
Checks
• Both are on sloping part of curve
• Tc = Tb = 0.057

So the average speed for 218 Town Centre vehicles = 55-(0.05*218) = 44.1 kmph
The Town Centre route is 2.5km so has a travel time of 2.5/44.1 = 3.4 minutes

(iii) If the total demand increases to 1000 vehicles when the bypass is built, show that
the method of successive averages requires more than four iterations to calculate the
equilibrium flows. [13 marks]

Let Fc, Qc, Vc, Tc represent the desired and actual flows, speed and travel time
(perceived cost) of the Town Centre route
Let Fb, Qb, Vb, Tb represent the desired and actual flows, speed and travel time
(perceived cost) of the Bypass route

Therefore the Method of Successive Averages gives

Iteration Lambda Fc Fb Qc Qb Tc Tb
0 --- --- --- 0 0 0.05 0.04375
1 1 0 1000 0 1000 0.05 0.175
2 0.5 1000 0 500 500 0.083333 0.05
3 0.333333 0 1000 333.3333 666.6667 0.065217 0.065625
4 0.25 1000 0 500 500 0.083333 0.05

The perceived costs of the two routes are not equal after three iterations. More
iterations are required to find the equilibrium.

(Note : Shaded boxes are where not on sloping part of curve)

[TOTAL 33 MARKS]