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Expect a strong vintage
1
Editor by David Wilmot, Babson Capital Europe
Emanuel Eftimiu Guest author David Wilmot of Babson Capital assesses the role of
emanuel.eftimiu@incisivemedia.com mezzanine in a post-credit crunch world.
Page 2
Contributor
Mareen Goebel
mareen.goebel @incisivemedia.com
Mezzanine in restructuring
2
Publishing director
Catherine Lewis
catherine.lewis@incisivemedia.com
by Mareen Goebel
During the market slump of the past two years, mezzanine has felt
the heat in countless restructurings.
Production
Chris Morrish Page 4
chris@cypressdesigns.co.uk
Marketing
Helen Longhurst
Roundtable
3
helen.longhurst@incisivemedia.com
with Emanuel Eftimiu
Advertising & Sponsorship In early May 2010, five leading industry professionals debated the
Stephen O’Sullivan state of the private equity market and its implications for mezzanine.
stephen.osullivan@incisivemedia.com
Steinar Liverud
Page 6
steinar.liverud@incisivemedia.com
4
retrieval system, transmitted in any form or by
any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopied, by Emanuel Eftimiu
recorded or otherwise, without written permission A collection of graphs and tables mapping trends within the
from the publishers. No statement in this journal is mezzanine market.
to be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell Page 12
securities.
INTELLIGENCE 01
The macroeconomic and financial market purpose providers alike. Well structured
Expect a strong vintage
BY DAVID WILMOT, BABSON CAPITAL EUROPE
Senior debt 15
100 Mezzanine
10
€20m Equity
80 5
60
€100m
40 €80m 5
20 10 2011 2012 2013
0 15
Excluding mezzanine Including mezzanine
EBITDA Senior Interest Mezzanine interest Capex Tax Net Cash Flow
Source: Babson Capital Europe Limited (illustrative example) Source: Babson Capital Europe Limited (illustrative example)
of deals involving mezzanine financing, unquote” brought together five industry representatives
in May 2010 to discuss the issues facing mezzanine and its future prospects.
The Panel activity dropped significantly with only 257 buyouts worth £23.4bn
completed during the year. To put this in perspective, that’s down
55% in volume terms from the 2008 figures, which were already
quite dreadful compared to the 819 deals seen in 2007. The value
contraction has been quite staggering, with 2009 overall buyout value
Graeme down 87% from the 2007 total of £187bn. In terms of mezzanine
Delaney-Smith supplied to those buyouts, around 200 buyouts involved mezzanine
Head of financing in 2007 – equivalent to a 25% share. In 2008, the number of
mezzanine mezzanine deals fell to 113, or 20% of activity, while 2009 has slumped
Alcentra to roughly 20 European buyouts involving mezzanine, which is less
than 10% of dealflow. How do these figures bode for 2010?
Jason Block David Whiteley: 2010 feels more positive for primary deals whichever
Head of investor way you look at it. We saw real signs of improvement in the primary
management market from late summer last year and this has continued into this
Intermediate year. Private equity houses seem keen to invest and have written some
big equity cheques recently with some businesses going for up to 13x
Capital Group
earnings, which wouldn’t have happened a year or so ago. The work
in progress list is longer now than it has been for 18-24 months. We
David Wilmot currently have about 20 transactions in progress, compared to say half a
Joint head of dozen last summer. Vendors are encouraged by the purchase multiples
mezzanine & being achieved and this is helping with the pipeline. Liquidity has
private equity increased as well – last summer we thought there were a dozen or so
MLAs prepared to underwrite, but now we think there are more like
Babson Capital
20-25. Similarly, the number of participant banks has increased from
Europe
around 6 to about 15 over this period. Institutional investors have
received repayments through IPOs and bond refinancings and many
Daniel Morland now have cash to put to work in primary, which was not the case last
Managing director, summer. So overall, we think the market feels much improved albeit still
European debt fragile, and in particular if the IPO pipeline and bond refinancings were
to slow, then fund liquidity could dry up quite quickly because very few
advisory group
of these investors are raising any new cash.
DC Advisory Partners
David Wilmot: The picture is now secure from an institutional
David Whiteley standpoint. Existing CLO vehicles and other non-bank sources of
Managing director, debt provide some liquidity for deals, which would increase if there
leveraged loan was a slew of IPOs. The issue will be once you get to the end of the
investment period for existing CLOs. You can’t buy an asset that goes
syndicate
beyond the term of the CLO, so once you get into next year and
Lloyds TSB
more and more of these vehicles go beyond their investment period, it
Corporate Markets
remains to be seen where liquidity is going to come from.
Eftimiu: So how much of this liquidity is there to support deals? you sign docs but then need to wait for a couple of months before
the deal funds. A couple of non-public-to-private deals that we have
Whiteley: For an attractive mid-market deal with say around £300m underwritten recently have launched immediately on signing, with a
of senior debt, you now see strong appetite for underwriting from view to getting investors into the deal within the month. You don’t
arranging banks. Previously, deals in this range such as Survitec, BCA want to be exposed to much more market risk than that at present.
etc, were clubbed. The mid-market deals are the easiest to put together
but it’s the larger transactions, such as RBS World Pay, that require say Jason Block: We’re not chasing primary deals as leverage is still high
`1bn of senior debt, which are more challenging. You can sit down and pricing is unattractive at times. However, we still see a secondary
and prepare some liquidity analysis based on a group of MLAs at the opportunity. It’s not buying off a run but actually working with a bank
top and then some participant banks, and funds and maybe you can or sponsor in their local market with a name that they’re stuck with
raise up to `1bn from European investors for a strong multinational but want to exit. We know the sponsor and we know the structure
deal. However, a month later you may come up with a different figure is not right but the company is fundamentally sound, which gives us
if in the meantime funds have put their cash to work in the secondary the opportunity to take the piece off the bank so we can restructure
market, which can sap liquidity quite quickly. the company and support its recovery and growth plans. And we still
think there is every opportunity to do this for the foreseeable future.
Graeme Delaney-Smith: It’s that activity in the secondary market The issue of strong companies with broken balance sheets has not been
that has really changed. The statistics for primary deal activity don’t solved just because the capital markets have rallied.
really matter because of the relative pricing points for a new deal versus
secondary. Those who had liquidity last year were thinking “well here’s Eftimiu: But is the value on the secondary market still there though,
a new deal with this pricing or I can put it into something that I’ve because prices have risen so sharply.
been in for a couple of years, know the management team, have a bit
a background with and it’s trading massively below where we think Block: We bought a piece of paper a month and a half ago at 75c, first
it should be”. I think that opportunity is pretty much gone. People lien. It was a L+250bps that was done over two years ago. But at 75c
who have been active in the secondary market have probably filled for first lien with an implied leverage of 3.75x, we solved the problem
their quotas for different credit names and are now looking at what is for a bank and we solved the problem for the sponsor, because now
coming down the pipeline. If a deal got sensible leverage and pricing they can go about growing the business with a supportive lender who
it would attract a lot of liquidity. But timing plays a significant role, wants to see growth.
because liquidity is changing from week to week.
Wilmot: And this is very different to a trading desk getting a call that
Daniel Morland: And that makes larger underwriting positions quite something is available at 90 – do you want to buy it, fill or kill? This is
difficult to take on because you don’t have that much visibility of what a bespoke solution for a bank that is long in a position and a sponsor
is going to clear where and when. who can’t do anything more with the financing of that credit. And this
is at the front of a big change to the market. We’ve all heard about the
Whiteley: Public-to-private transactions are more difficult because maturity wall in a few years time, which is going to keep everybody in
two years. How do you see institutional appetite for mezzanine in the returns and the reality then is they don’t need mezzanine. But if they
current market? look at their portfolios and realise that some of them picked some
second quartile every now and then – and someone must have picked
Wilmot: We’re in the relatively early stages of marketing a fund for the bottom half – they will realise that mezzanine has helped them
mezzanine- and sponsor-backed credits in Western Europe and thus far through cycles. And no, in the best vintages we’re not going to ever
it’s been very encouraging. There aren’t many new private equity funds deliver anybody a 3x fund – if we do that we’ve done the wrong thing
around at present so investors are by default looking at mezzanine. and took the wrong risk. But in the worst funds we’re not only going
And if you are a habitual private equity investor and are looking for to return the money, we’re going to meet the hurdles and we’re going
cash, then mezzanine can offer that as it distributes on a quarterly basis to deliver a return that outperforms everybody.
instead of the back-ended cashflow you get from a private equity fund.
Of course, the proof in the pudding will be whether the encouraging Delaney-Smith: I would say that the universe of mezzanine investors
conversations will lead to LPs actually coming to the table to invest. has probably grown because of what has been going on in Europe.
The use of mezzanine in Europe, the size of the deals that were
Delaney-Smith: Getting cashflow from their investments will be taking place, has been far greater than it has ever been in the US. The
important to LPs as there is uncertainty surrounding the private equity European market has really exploded, for good and for bad, but at
world in terms of the existing portfolios and how they are going to be least it has opened investors’ eyes to the product.
exited. A lot of LPs had issues to sort out last year and with the private
equity return of capital drying up completely, they are looking for Eftimiu: What are your views on restructurings that happened last year,
instruments that yield cash. Now, on an unlevered basis, mezzanine is a where in many cases mezzanine was left out of the structure?
cash-paying asset. When it’s a levered fund and you’ve got a collapse in
Euribor it uses up a lot of cashflow, so going forward I think LPs will Delaney-Smith: A lot of restructurings last year were knee-jerk
look more closely at the returns of levered vs. unlevered funds. And if reactions to what went on. You had the banking market in a bit of
they look at the mark-downs that happened across their private equity disarray with a lot of fear about liquidity and a lot of restructurings
books and compare that to the returns generated through mezzanine were done in double quick time because people thought there were a
funds, then they have to ask themselves what is actually a better lot of opportunities. I think last year proved that in a crisis there often
diversified strategy? Maybe a more diversified portfolio where you get is not a lot of sense spoken. How can you restructure a business when
some of the money back pretty quickly might help them to revalue you’re in a trough and you’re not sure about trading visibility and
their positions. things of that nature? And if you look at some of the businesses that
were restructured last year they’ve outperformed their business plans
Block: LPs are certainly thinking more about risk-adjusted returns. In massively. So it seems to me there was a massive rush to write off debt
the past their benchmarking revolved around absolute returns. There last year that probably caused issues for people that didn’t need to
was a study about LPs investing in managers and apparently 68% of happen. I think this year you can have more sensible conversations as
all LPs had invested in top quartile buyout managers. If they did that one has a better idea what the actual sustainable level of EBITDA in a
and got it absolutely right all the time they would beat mezzanine business will be.
Morland: Absolutely right. If the lending group is in a situation Delaney-Smith: Yes, and I also think some of the sponsors have
where no one had the faintest idea what’s going to happen next week, woken up to that fact as they have lost some businesses they never
never mind next quarter on the trading front, surely the most sensible imagined they could lose. All of a sudden either the existing lenders
thing to do last year would have been to put in place an 18 months were able put cash in, because of the government safety net, or they
standstill and suspend all covenants till we see what’s going on. But sold out to other types of funds who were happy to own a business at
the reality is that never happens from the senior lenders as nobody 4x because they think it’s going to be worth 7x or 8x.
wants to find themselves in a worse position in a year’s time through
lack of activity. And panic itself inevitably drives the processes and in a Eftimiu: How do you see the competition for mezzanine from the
few cases shareholders used the opportunity to pursue quite successful reopened high yield market?
disruptive strategies within debt syndicates.
Morland: It all comes back to size and if we stick to the theme of mid-
Delaney-Smith: It’s the lenders at that stage that really hold the market, high yield is not applicable to the mid-market at the moment.
power though and if there’s no categorical cash need in the business it
surely makes more sense, if everybody is willing, to sit back and wait. Whiteley: And sponsors are looking at mezzanine even on some larger
deals, like RBS World Pay, Siemans Audiology etc.
Morland: And in smaller deals people can do that but in bigger
transactions when CLOs are involved, with their own leveraged Block: High yield goes through cycles but generally it comes in at the
structure and covenants, it’s impossible to do that. larger end of the market so has an impact on the fringe of dealflow.
The real impact is on pricing though, because whether high yield is an
Block: It all comes back to what you consider is mezzanine. If you’re option or not, the sponsor refers to the high yield pricing.
doing deals where you and your friends are controlling the tranche
of debt, you know the five senior lenders, you know the sponsor well Delaney-Smith: Back in the late 90s there was this belief that
and it’s a local business and it’s not widely syndicated, you are aware mezzanine was dead because high yield bonds were coming into the
of any issues well in advance. So you act early and start having the market. It’s 2010 and only now are we thinking that the high yield
conversation with the sponsor that he’s going to break covenants in market is coming to actually take us out of deals that we’ve been in for
a year’s time. By the time you reach the point of something going far too long.
wrong you have all the right people at the table thinking about it and
trying to create a solution for a business. And the value may break in Block: Given the wall of refinancings coming up in the next few
the mezzanine and it may break in the senior, but there is something years, there’s going to be a need for a lot of capital to come into
to talk about and be done, and you can avoid going through a process the market and I see high yield as more of a help than competition
like IMO Car Wash. for mezzanine.
Delaney-Smith: I agree, our better restructurings are the ones with Eftimiu: So looking ahead, how do you see the mezzanine market
the least number of parties involved and where the paper is not trading developing in the next 6-12 months?
Delaney-Smith: We have confidence in the resilience of the mezz Block: The question will be whether private equity funds will be
market for sponsored and sponsorless transactions. Corporate able to negotiate extensions on the investment periods of their
mezzanine across Europe is probably more exciting than in the UK. funds. If they have more time then they may be more disciplined
Some people are becoming alive to the fact that equity isn’t coming with their investments and there will be more opportunity for us. If
without a cost and maybe some of the equity providers are realising they can’t get more time they either invest it or lose it. I don’t think
that their cost of capital may be 2% against our 15% but actually, as an they are going to make rushed investments but they are likely to buy
equity holder your dilution is far greater. We’ve been through a few companies and probably over-equitise them. Regardless, the deal
cycles since the mid-90s and I think mezzanine has always come out at environment is likely to be a very different one going forward, where
the other end as an instrument that has longevity for finding a flexible deals are far less vanilla or straightforward. Relationships will matter
solution to the funding needs – be it a sponsor deal, a restructuring or again and creativity has become important again.
a refinancing opportunity. And that’s where we would like to focus.
Morland: I expect the buyout market to improve although not at
Block: There are plenty of opportunities for us out there. Many a huge pace, and this outlook could change in the highly unlikely
companies have capital structures that don’t work because of the way event that global banking regulators agree on some fundamental
they were originally financed. Many of them are still inside corporates reform. Looking a bit further out, there is talk about the huge
and families and whether it’s a primary buyout or a refinancing, there opportunity the wall of refinancing is going to bring from next
are enough deals to do that will generate 1.5x-2x money multiples year onward, but I think it’s way too early to call how that is going
for the right risk for our LPs. And I think sponsors’ attitude towards to play out. If you take one small example in YELL; at the end of
mezzanine has changed – yes there will always be a discussion about the day a large number of investors were more comfortable with
price – but ultimately they and the senior lenders have learned their kicking the ball down the field than facing some hard choices today
lessons, some of them the hard way, about who their partners are and and I can’t see any fundamental reason why they won’t make a
who they want in the deals. similar decision in due course again. There will be other technical
reasons that argue against this, such as fund maturities etc, and in a
Wilmot: It’s a different environment, but a better one. I’m very number of situations businesses’ capital structures will be properly
comfortable with a smaller market with fewer players and the current reorganised, but there will be a large number of situations where
availability of quality transactions and good terms. This is a franchise this won’t happen.
defining period for private equity sponsors as they need to show that
they can buy and sell well. There wasn’t great dealflow last year but Whiteley: We see more and more deals in the pipeline and so
there has to be this year, because private equity players won’t have hopefully we will see more deals completing. Liquidity seems to be
their money sitting in their funds forever. This is a positive driver for coming back quite strongly and we will continue to pitch all-senior
continued supply of opportunities for mezzanine, because you can’t and senior and mezz structures because as we said, 60-65% equity
build a business as a private equity sponsor on 60% equity contribution cheques can’t last forever. Dealflow has improved over the last couple
to deals. We’re an investor in several private equity funds in Europe and of quarters and we are a lot more optimistic then we have been in a
we won’t be buying their funds if they’re producing 17-18% returns. long time. N
Volume
150
of all buyouts recorded were financed with 6
BY EMANUEL
High liquidity in the debt markets had led to Development of EBITDA Multiples since 2006
rising entry multiples being paid by private
Equity/EBITDA JD/EBITDA SD/EBITDA
equity firms throughout the middle of the
10x
decade. While overall average valuation
multiples hovered around the 8x EBITDA level
8x
before dropping more significantly in 2009, it is
the share of total debt supplied to transactions
6x
Volume
As easy as
1,2,3
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unquote
Returns for sponsorless mezzanine investments have clearly European sponsored vs sponsorless transactions
outperformed sponsored transactions, with the former achieving
an IRR for realised transactions of 22.4%. At the same time the Equity / EBITDA IRR realized transactions
loss rate of investments in sponsorless transactions is also higher, JD / EBITDA SD / EBITDA Loss Rate realized transactions
8 25
with mezzanine failing to recover its capital on 14.8% of cases. This
7
is mainly due to the different characteristics of these investments.
6 20
Percent (%)
risk as the deal is undertaken with a buyout investor, therefore adding 5
Source: Cepres
The bubble caused by the abundant availability of leverage during European buyouts 2003- 2009
the 2005 to 2007 period, becomes evident when the value of %2bn Total Value
European buyouts, excluding `2bn+ transactions, is plotted
%2bn %2bn
against overall buyout value. In 2006 and 2007, 3% and 2% of 1000 200
total recorded transactions, respectively, accounted for a staggering
46% and 31% of total deal value. The market exuberance reversed 800
150
through 2008 with total volume dropping by 28% and value by
Value (%bn)
600
Volume
0 0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: unquote”/Private Equity Insight
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Value (`m)
Value (`m)
than half in 2008 to just over `180m, while average tranche sizes 40
250
dropped to around `27m. Although the small sample size in 2009 200 30
makes it difficult to draw any sound statistical conclusions, the few
150
transactions structured with mezzanine were significantly smaller 20
than averages in previous years, while the average tranche size
100
10
dropped to around `10m. 50
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
Over the sample period, capital raised by mezzanine managers for Capital raised by Mezzanine Funds 2004-2009
European investments has been patchy. Following the `2.9bn capital
raised in 2004, the fundraising environment for the product cooled 2004 Closed (%m)
considerably in 2005. Since then though, mezzanine fundraising went
2005
from strength to strength, with substantial vehicles closed along the
way. That said, although 2008 was statistically another record year for 2006
mezzanine fundraising, more than three quarters of the `7.8bn raised
was due to the $20bn Goldman Sachs Mezzanine Partners V fund, 2007
*Please note that 2009 figures are based on a limited amount of observations for that year.
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