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Summary
1. Investment and consumption are the driving forces behind economic growth
in Vietnam. Reforms implemented over the past decade have brought significant
benefits in terms of Vietnam’s transition from an agrarian country into an industrial
country, and from a planned economy into a market economy. Vietnam appears to
be advancing steadily toward the middle-income stage, yet its economic outlook has
become increasingly uncertain recently, as evidenced by the fact that the Ministry
of Planning and Investment has substantially reduced its real GDP growth rate fore-
cast for 2008 from the 8.5-9.0% figure published late last year to 7.0%. Inflation is
higher, and there have been conspicuous declines in both share prices and real estate
values.
2. Factors behind the rise in inflation include the supply of vast amounts of money
into the market. In 2007, there were massive inflows of funds through remittances
from overseas Vietnamese, stock market investment, and foreign direct investment.
Fearing a loss of export competitiveness, the government tried to keep the value of
the dong low by intervening to buy dollars. This caused an excess liquidity situation.
This flood of funds poured into the stock market in the first half of 2007 and the real
estate market in the second half of the year. The result was an abnormal rise in prices
and growing financial instability.
3. The government succeeded in curbing stock market investment and real estate
investment by implementing a credit squeeze. However, there is no evidence that the
inflation is losing momentum. Open market operations and interest rate restrictions
implemented by the central bank appear to be based on an ad hoc approach, and the
resulting impotence of monetary policy is also affecting the situation.
4. One of the reasons for the lack of consistency in monetary policy is capacity
problems in the central bank. However, a closer analysis of this issue shows that
there are also structural problems in Vietnam that are both driving inflation and also
making it more difficult to bring under control. First, because the central bank is not
independent from the government, there is a tendency to shift toward a more relaxed
monetary stance. Second, expectations of declines in the value of the dong have en-
couraged a shift of household assets away from the dong and into dollars and gold,
thereby reducing the effectiveness of monetary policy. Third, state-owned enterprises
have played a leading role in investment in the stock market and real estate.
5. The consumer price index is the most important indicator for economic forecast-
ing. The key factor is whether or not the excess liquidity problem is being rectified
through increases in base rates. When analyzing the sustainability of the current ac-
count balance of payments position, we need to include the capital account surplus
and the curbing of investment through interest rate increases in our calculations. It
would therefore be premature to say the position is unsustainable at this stage. Viet-
nam’s net external asset position is positive, and it seems unlikely that Vietnam will
slide into a capital account crisis like that experienced by Thailand in 1997.
6. In view of the fact that the establishment of financial subsidiaries by major state-
owned enterprises has hindered the sound growth of financial markets, or the fact
that a decline in the share of the state-owned sector has not necessarily meant prog-
ress toward the development of a market economy, we must assume that the eco-
nomic distortions caused by the existence of state-owned enterprises has been greater
than expected, and that the effects of these distortions have been widespread. To
leverage globalization into economic development while also minimizing the risk of
this approach, Vietnam will need to redraw its reform map after assessing the merits
and demerits of its SOE reforms.
I. Mingled Optimism and Pessi- forecasting growth of 8.0% in 2008 and 8.5% in
mism 2009.
Growth is driven by investment and consump-
We will begin by analyzing the supply-side tion. Both stagnated temporarily under the im-
factors that have supported economic growth in pact of the 1997 currency crisis but have been
recent years. We will also ascertain Vietnam’s recovering since 2000 (Fig. 2). One of the driving
growth stage by comparing its growth record over forces for investment is domestic private sector
the past 10 years with those of other Asian econo- investment. The Enterprise Law, which has been
mies. Finally we will look at the role of trends in in force since 2000, has not only channeled previ-
inflation, the stock market and the real estate mar- ously dormant private funds into investment, but
ket in triggering the emergence of a more pessi- has also helped to improve the employment envi-
mistic view. ronment. The unemployment rate peaked at 7.4%
in 1999 and is now in decline.
(1) Buoyant Performance Foreign direct investment has also made a sig-
nificant contribution. Foreign direct investment in
Since 2000, Vietnam has shown the second Vietnam (approval basis) peaked out in 1996 and
highest growth rate in East Asia after China. The entered a period of stagnation. However, 2005
consensus view is that this momentum will con- brought a return to growth, and in 2007 invest-
tinue in the foreseeable future, despite the desta- ment set a new record of $17.9 billion (Fig. 3).
bilizing impact of global financial uncertainty One key factor was Vietnam’s emergence as a
triggered by the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the candidate location for distributed production op-
United States, and rising resource and grain pric- erations, especially by Japanese, South Korean
es. In its April 2008 World Economic Outlook, the and Taiwanese companies, because of rising la-
IMF predicted continuing growth at around 8% bor costs in China and a decision by the Chinese
(Fig. 1). In April 2008, the World Bank was also government to review preferential measures for
20.0 2,000 35
30
15.0 1,500 25
20
10.0 1,000 15
10
5.0 500 5
0 0 ▲5
1988 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 992000 0102 03 04 05 0607 08 (1-5) 1995 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
(Calendar years) (Calendar years)
Notes: S
upplementary or expanded investment and invest-
ment approved by regional governments or indus- Source: Compiled using data in the relevant editions of the
trial estates are not included. Statistical Yearbook of Vietnam and on the web-
Source: Compiled using data from the General Statistics site of General Statistics Office Of Vietnam (http://
Office of Vietnam www.gso.gov.vn/default_en.aspx?tabid=491)
Many observers support a scenario of high Source: Compiled using data from the Statistical Yearbook
growth in Vietnam. Goldman Sachs predicts in- of Vietnam 2008 and the website of General Sta-
tistics Office Of Vietnam
creased inputs of both capital and labor and an
improvement in productivity. It has published a
report forecasting average annual growth of 8%
between 2007 and 2020 (Qiao [2008])(7). When up with the leading ASEAN economies, such as
PricewaterhouseCoopers predicted average annual Thailand.
growth rates for 20 emerging economies between Growth has also accelerated the development of
2007 and 2050, it placed Vietnam at the top of the the financial sector. In the past 10 years Vietnam
group with a growth rate of 9.8%, on the grounds has overtaken the Philippines and caught up with
that growth will be driven by foreign direct in- Thailand in terms of its M2/GDP ratio, which is
vestment (Hawksworth and Gordon [2008]). The regarded as an indicator of financial deepening
Goldman Sachs forecast was published in April (Fig. 6). Financial deepening has been driven by
2008, and that of PricewaterhouseCoopers in an upward trend in the savings ratio. Vietnam’s
March. It is significant that both assess the Viet- gross domestic savings were equivalent to just
namese economy as being firmly based, despite 2.9% of GDP in 1990. By 2005 Vietnam had over-
the impact of global financial instability and rising taken the Philippines and Thailand with a ratio of
oil and grain prices. 30.2% (Fig. 7). Financial deepening indicates that
In retrospect, it is clear that the reforms of the financial institutions are able to create credit, and
past 10 years have yielded significant benefits. that funds have started to circulate from house-
Vietnam has been transformed from an agrar- holds to financial institutions to businesses. The
ian country into an industrial country, and from lending patterns of banks are also changing. The
a planned economy into a market economy. The fact that borrowers outside of the SOE sector are
contribution of agriculture to GDP and the state- tending to account for a growing share of loans
owned sector’s share of industrial production (Fig. 8) suggests that financial deepening and the
have both declined conspicuously over the past 10 transition to a market economy are occurring in
years (Fig. 5). The shrinking contribution from ag- unison.
riculture can be seen as evidence of development, The rise in Vietnam’s savings ratio is attribut-
and the shrinking role of the state-owned sec- able to increased confidence in the dong, Viet-
tor as evidence of the shift to a market economy. nam’s domestic currency, because of the improved
Both trends also suggest that Vietnam is catching exchange rate and price stability. Exchange rate
(%) (%)
180 80
160 70
140
60
120
100 50
80 40
60 30
40
20
20
0 10
1996 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06
0
(Calendar years)
1998 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06
Vietnam Thailand China (Calendar years)
Philippines Malaysia
Lending/GDP SOE Non-SOE
60 18,000 80
70
16,000
50 60
14,000
50
40
12,000 40
30 10,000 30
20
8,000
20 10
6,000
0
10
1996 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 4,000 ▲ 10
(Calendar years) 1989 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 992000 0102 03 04 05 06 07
(Calendar years)
Vietnam Thailand China Dong/dollar rate
Malaysia CPI rate of increase (right-hand scale)
Philippines
adjustments under the Doi Moi (reform) policy figures from 1996 to 2006. Compared with the
continued until 1992, but thereafter the dong- growth rate, Vietnam’s inflation rate remained
dollar rate remained stable, with the value of dong gradual throughout this period.
gradually drifting lower over a period of many This rise in confidence in the dong is also ap-
years (Fig. 9). Inflation followed a similar trend, parent from the deceleration of dollarization.
and the CPI rate of increase remained in single Economies in which foreign currency deposits
110 50 200
90 0 0
2002 03 04 05 06 07 08 2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
(Calendar years) (Calendar years)
Total Housing, housing materials Aggregate value (left-hand scale, trillions of dong)
Foodstuffs Transportation, telecommunications Index
These increases are pushing up the price indexes to $5,000, with prime land prices hitting $62,500
for transportation, telecommunications, housing per square meter(10). The price of housing in Ho
and construction materials. Chi Minh City rose from $1,200 per square meter
Another serious problem is the decline in stock at the start of year to $4,500(11). However, prices
and real estate prices. In May 2007 the Ho Chi peaked out early in 2008. While the prices of
Minh City stock price index (VNIndex) reached prime office space intended for foreign compa-
an all-time high of 1,081. (This and other figures nies have remained firm because of buoyant de-
cited below are monthly averages.) The average mand(12), by April land prices in Ho Chi Minh City
had doubled in two successive years, rising from had fallen by 40% and housing prices by 30%
247 in May 2005 and 539 in May 2006. There from the start of the year(13).
was also a dramatic rise in the aggregate value of
stocks listed on the market, which reached 311
trillion dong in November 2007 (Fig. 12). This is II. The Merits and Demerits of
equivalent to 27.2% of GDP in that year. Howev- Globalization
er, the stock market showed increasing signs that
a correction was imminent in 2007, and prices Of all the many problems affecting Vietnam,
plummeted early in 2008. By the start of June the the government is most concerned about inflation.
index was below 400 and had fallen to less than Inflation accelerated in 2007, and the trend shows
one-half of its peak level. The aggregate value was no signs of abating in 2008. International prices
below 200 trillion dong, indicating a loss of value for resources, including crude oil and grain, are
equivalent to one-tenth of GDP. clearly rising. However, this alone does not ex-
There has also been a conspicuous decline in plain why Vietnam’s CPI rate of increase is higher
real estate prices. The prices of urban land and than that of any other East Asian economy, includ-
housing climbed sharply in 2007, when the stock ing China.
market was entering a correction phase. Land In simple terms, the reason for the high infla-
prices in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City rose from tion rate is the fact that the price control policies
$3,120-3,750 per square meter at the start of 2007 of the government and central bank are not work-
Fig. 13 M
2 Rate of Increase (Compared Fig. 14 Foreign Investors in the Stock
with Previous Year or Same Market
Month in Previous Year)
(Trillions of dong) (%)
(%)
6 90
50 80
5
45 70
4
60
40
3 50
35 40
2
30 30
1
20
25 0
10
20 ▲1 0
March June 2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (Calendar years)
the importance of financial services is likely to in- Source: Compiled using CEIC data
Fig. 22 S
ector Breakdown of Industrial Fig. 23 Numbers of Joint-Stock
Production Companies and their Sales
Source: Data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam Source: Data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam
22. Another local report puts the figure at 37.8%. Dow 31. State Bank Official Letter No 3764/NHNN-CSTT24,
Jones Factiva, “Vietnam: Central bank urged to adopt April 2008.
flexible money policies,” January 10, 2008.
32. Vietnam Investment Review, “Bank deposits take big hit
23. Vietnam Economic Times, “Hidden difficulties,” Issue in the south,” No.862/April 21-27, 2008.
169, March 2008.
33. Vietnam Investment Review, “Credit growth rising de-
24. In February 2008, the central bank eased its invest- spite stop gaps,” No.862/May 5-11, 2008.
ment policy by raising the ceiling for loans secured by
securities from 3% of the outstanding loans to 20%. In 34. Dow Jones Factiva, “Vietnam: Depositors flock to en-
March, the State Securities Commission reduced the joy higher interest rates,” May 21, 2008.
maximum daily fluctuation in the prices of stocks listed
on the stock market to one-fifth (from 5% to 1% in 35. Vietnam Investment Review, “State Bank holds its
Ho Chi Minh, and from 10% to 2% in Hanoi). Despite ground against banks,” No.862/April 21-27, 2008.
these measures, stock prices have continued to fall. In
May 2008, the State Securities Commission reacted to 36. Vietnam Investment Review, “Greenbacks get the love,”
the slump in market transactions resulting from falling No.863/April 28-May 4, 2008.
stock prices by announcing that approval would not be
given for the establishment of new funds or securities 37. State Bank of Vietnam, No.1255/NHNN-TD, dated
companies in the foreseeable future. Vietnam Invest- May 13, 2008.
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nies,” No.864/May 5-11, 2008, and other sources. 38. Vietnam Investment Review, “Banks get ultimatum,”
No.867/May 26 June 1, 2008.
25. Vietnam Investment Review, “Credit growth rising de-
spite stop gaps,” No.862/May 5-11, 2008. 39. Dow Jones Factiva, “Vietnam: Central bank urged to
adopt flexible monetary policies,” January 10, 2008.
26. Vietnam Investment Review, “Bank split on rate cap,”
No.863/April 28-March 4, 2008.
41. The dong’s slide is also attributable to external fac- 54. Dow Jones Factiva, “Hurting Vietnam banks woo de-
tors, including profit-taking sales by foreign investors positors’ goodies,”March 13, 2008.
after the stock market entered a correction phase, and
increased demand for the dollar because of the rapid 55. Vietnam Investment Review, “SOEs fix bayonets to stab
expansion of the trade deficit. Dow Jones Factiva, “State at inflation,” No.860/April 7-13, 2008.
Bank plays with a straight bat,” April 28, 2008.
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