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Dec’10 ‐ A perfect end to a good year for KSE Date: 3rd January, 2010
KSE 100 index continued to spiral its way up during Dec’10, gaining 9% MoM, to
mark a perfect end to a good year for Pakistan equities, where the 100 index
gained 28% during CY10, despite a lull at the bourse for the first three quarters of Fortune Securities Ltd.
the year. Average volumes during Dec’10 remained healthy, at 98mn shares (KSE
100 volumes), up 1% MoM, while foreign investor interest jumped by a whopping
87% MoM to USD 73mn during the month. The market also breached the Market
12,000pts barrier towards the end of the month, for the first time since 3rd July’08,
as the index now stands at a 30 month high.
Investor sentiment displayed immense resilience to a 50bps discount rate hike at
the end of Nov’10, which was by and large, priced in. With expectations of the
SBP’s belt tightening stance to be nearing its climax, the market rather reacted
positively post the discount rate hike as witnessed in an enormous 227% pick up in Ahsan Zia
volumes post the DR hike.
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Email: ahsan.zia@fortunesecurities.com
Key sectors' performance during Dec'10
Financial Services
Tobacco
Gas Water & Multiutilities
Life Insurance
Constr. & Materials
Automobile and Parts
Electricity
Personal Goods
Oil & Gas
General Industrials
Food Producers
Banks
Chemicals
Industrial metals & Mining
Electronic & Electrical Equipment
Sector specific developments remained central to performance
Fertilizer sector remained under investor radar, with publication of Oct’10 offtake
numbers creating interest, specifically in FFBL. Meanwhile, a urea price hike of PKR
190/bag also drove a rally in fertilizer stocks, specifically FFC (biggest beneficiary
from the price raise) and Engro (expected to undertake CoD in mid Jan’11).
Banking sector also witnessed healthy activity with bonus and dividend payout
expectations ahead of the annual financial closing. Particularly, UBL gained from
news of ADG’s consideration of divesting its strategic stake of 30% in the stock.
With Bestway Holding, announcing a purchase of a further 20% stake in UBL, taking
its total stake to 51%, it was later clarified that a tender offer would not have to be
made from Bestway, as it was merely a change of shareholding within the group.
valuations at a premium to prevailing market multiples, invited investor interest. 12,000
Although OGRA’s decision of not passing on an the impact of an upsurge in
international oil prices and instead, channeling the international oil price hike 11,000
towards reducing PDL and dealer margins, affected OMC’s and refineries
10,000
negatively. However, MoF’s assurance of a PKR 35bn payment to PSO to ease its
1‐Nov‐10
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27‐Dec‐10
financial burden from the circular debt issue, ignited interest in the scrip.
Despite rejection of EU’s call at the WTO summit for duty free concessions for
specific export products from Pakistan, being a dampener for textile majors, rising
cotton prices in the international and local prices, sparked a buying spree in the (mn shares) KSE 100 volumes
190
sector. Meanwhile, auto sector remained a laggard as GoP extended the age limit
for used car imports to 5 years, affecting local auto makers negatively. 130
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6‐Dec‐10
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20‐Dec‐10
27‐Dec‐10
ruling party, PPP and key ally, MQM could be heard throughout the month.
On the other hand, Chinese PM’s visit to the country remained key to exciting
investor sentiment as a total of 17 agreements were signed between the strategic
partners, including a joint venture worth USD 15bn and four MoUs. Adding to (USD mn) FII
20
positive news flow was IMF’s consent to a 9 month extension in its SBA program,
which provided a much needed breather to the government amidst rising political 15
noise from coalition partners as well as the opposition over key reforms needed
10
under the IMF’s SBA program. Meanwhile, the release of the much awaited USD
633mn under the Coalition Support Fund, triggered many sighs of relief. 5
Economic scenario depicted a mixed bag of positives and negatives ‐
1‐Nov‐
Nov‐10
1‐Dec‐
Dec‐10
Dec‐10
10
16‐
10
16‐
31‐
Surfacing of weak macroeconomic data had its fair share during the month, as (5)
Nov’10 CPI inflation clocked in at 15.48%, an 18 month high, driven largely by food
and energy inflation. Although core inflation, sticking within single digits (9.5%), Source: NCCPL, KSE
provided comfort, trade deficit for Nov’10 widened to USD 1.6bn, while foreign
investment inched down 7% YoY to USD 143mn.
A few positives also lightened the ambience and raised hopes of better days to
come with the New Year ahead. Remittance data for Nov’10 helped lift the mood,
as the same rose by 8% MoM to USD 927mn, while spurring the 5MFY11 figure by
16% YoY to USD 4.4bn, hence lending stability to the country’s forex reserves, amid
ballooning oil import costs and a widening trade deficit.
Outlook
With Dec’10 market performance setting a perfect momentum ahead of the New
Year, resolution of the current political standstill will remain key, as the ruling
coalition has lost its major support with key ally, MQM having switched to the
opposition benches. Meanwhile, with a new SECP chairman in office,
developments on the leverage product front could provide the much needed
liquidity to local participants, who have been net sellers throughout the year.
Other Org's
Individuals
Mt. Funds
NBFC
FII
Co's
Banks/DFI
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