Bahrain Opposition

Was it a Silent Majority or is it now a Loud Minority?

Introduction 1

  This short presentation does not intend to look in

depth into the political situation in Bahrain, but
rather look into answering the following:
  What kind of “democracy” is on the ground in
Bahrain?

  What is the representation of the opposition in the 3

branches of government (legislative, judiciary &
executive)?

  What powers does the Parliament possess in Bahrain?

  How much does the opposition actually represent from

the fabric of the Bahraini society? And how much is its
representation in Parliament?
Assumptions & Sources 2

  This study & numbers were based on figures extracted

from:
  www.alwasatnews.com/elections (for 2010 population &
electorate)
  www.vote.bh (for 2010 voting figures)

  Main assumptions
  The fabric of the Bahrain society is such that opposition
and pro-government populace are seen in same districts,
but remain proportionately well drawn.
  The 40 electoral district composition in Bahrain in 5
governorates strictly draws the line between opposition
and pro-government populace (except for 3 contested
districts, as will be clear hereafter)
  This conservative approach, hence results, works best for
pro-government representation understating opposition
figures, but still does not affect the main results and
conclusions.
The Bahrain Parliament 3

  The King remains the head of all branches of government

(legislative, judiciary & executive).

  The Parliament is composed of two houses:

  Upper House: Shura Counsel
  Lower House: House of Representatives

  The two houses comprise of 40 members each, with the

lower house being an elected one, and the upper house
appointed by the King.

  Draft laws leave the lower house to the upper one, and
must then be signed by the King.
In case of disagreement between the two houses, the
Parliament (both houses) holds a joint session to discuss the
draft, which in the event of agreement must still be signed
by the King.

  In all cases, the King can rule the country via Royal Decrees,
bypassing both houses of Parliament.
 Current Opposition
Representation in Parliament 4

The Legislator

Opposition representation in
Parliament

KING

Shura Counsel
Opposition representation in Lower House
(40 APPOINTED Members)
Parliament

House of Representatives
(40 ELECTED Members)
 Gerrymandering: 5
Bahrain Governorates

1. Capital
3. Muharraq

4. Northern

2. Central

Opposition Pro-government
5. Southern
* Percentages represent % out of Bahrain
population, electorate & house of
representatives in each governorate for pro-
government and opposition respectively.
Gerrymandering: 6
A more overall look
  In the two most populated
governorates - Northern & Central
-, which happen to be opposition
strongholds, the representation in
the lower house is 18% less than
what it should be compared to the
electorate.
  The Southern governorate, a pro-
government stronghold is
overrepresented by 10% in the
lower house, as is the case with
pro-government representation in
Muharraq and Capital
governorates (by 3% each).
  This misrepresentation overall in
Bahrain gives the opposition 45%
only of the lower house, when in
fact it represents at least 60% of the Opposition Pro-government
electorate.
Electoral Districts: 7
1. Muharraq
  In a mainly pro-government governorate, the number of
electorate per electoral district is mostly below the average
electorate per district in Bahrain. This also applies to the
average population per district.

  The Muharraq governorate is over-represented by only 1% in

the lower house of Parliament.
Electoral Districts: 8
2. Capital
  The Capital governorate is mainly opposition dominated, and
is the second least populated governorate in terms of
electorate, with all the districts being below the average
population and electorate figures in Bahrain.

  Therefore, the Capital governorate is over-represented by 8%

in the lower house of Parliament.
Electoral Districts: 9
3. Northern
  The Northern governorate is the opposition stronghold, and is
the most populated governorate in Bahrain. All districts are well
above the average population and electorate figures per
district in Bahrain (except for District 4, which is a pro-
government district).

  Hence, this governorate is under-represented by 11% in the

lower house of Parliament.
Electoral Districts: 10
4. Central
  The Central governorate is an evenly split governorate in
terms of populace political affiliations, and the second
most populated governorate in Bahrain.

  The opposition-dominated districts in this governorate are

the most populated, which makes the opposition in this
governorate under-represented by at least 7%.
Electoral Districts: 11
5. Southern
  The Southern governorate is a pro-government stronghold
and the least populated governorate in Bahrain, with all of its
districts well below the average population and electorate
per district figures of Bahrain.

  This makes this governorate over-represented by 10% in the

lower house of Parliament.
Conclusions 12

  From the brief analysis of both the legislative

process in Bahrain, the structure of the legislative
branch of government and the clear
gerrymandering in the drawing of electoral districts,
the following can be concluded:

1.  The democratic process in Bahrain falls short of

proper representation; with the people having a
say in only half the legislative and NO say in the
judiciary nor executive branches of government.

2.  The opposition represents at least 60% of the

population, but is represented by 45% of the
House of Representatives, and 22% of the
Parliament.

3.  The “February 14th Uprising” is a consequence of a

Previously Silent Majority speaking up for its Rights
 Thank You

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