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For 4QFY2010, Ashok Leyland (ALL) reported 317.6% yoy growth in Net Profit Investment Period -
to Rs222.7cr (Rs53.3cr), which was higher than our expectation of Rs179cr.
ALL witnessed a substantial 345bp yoy increase in EBITDA Margins mainly on Stock Info
the back of the increased pricing actions taken by the company, normalisation Sector Automobile
of raw material prices and cost reduction measures. Thus, better Operating
performance combined with better financial leverage and change in Market Cap (Rs cr) 7,975
Depreciation supported higher growth in Net Profit. Owing to the recent run Beta 1.0
up in the stock price, we remain Neutral on the stock.
52 WK High / Low 60 / 20
In-line Top-line, Bottom-line above expectations For 4QFY2010, ALL reported
Avg. Daily Volume 1018393
141.3% yoy growth in Net Sales to Rs2,939cr (Rs1,218cr), which was broadly
in line with our expectation. This was aided by the 138.9% yoy increase in Face Value (Rs) 1
Volumes and marginal hike in Realisation. ALL reported a 229.5% yoy growth
BSE Sensex 17,559
in Operating Profit to Rs378.4cr (Rs114.8cr) for 4QFY2010. The company’s
Bottom-line, which posted 317.6% yoy growth to Rs222.7cr (Rs53.3cr) also Nifty 5,278
came in better than our expectation of Rs179cr for the quarter, primarily due
to better EBITDA Margin expansion and change in Depreciation policy. Reuters Code ASOK.BO
1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
Ashok Leyland I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Healthy 141.3% growth on Top-line front in line with expectation: For 4QFY2010,
Ashok Leyland (ALL) reported a 141.3% yoy growth in Net Sales to Rs2,939cr
(Rs1,218cr), which was in line with our expectation. The jump in Sales came on the
back of a 138.9% yoy growth in Volumes and marginal increase in net realisation.
The company’s Bottom-line, which posted a 317.6% yoy growth to Rs222.7cr
(Rs169.7cr) also came in higher than our expectation of Rs179cr for the quarter.
Net Profit spikes 317.6%: Net Profit grew by a substantial 317.6% yoy to Rs222.7cr
(Rs53.3cr) on a low base, better Operating performance and better financial
leverage. Interest cost declined substantially by 49.8% yoy on account of a fall in
working capital requirements. This contributed to the Bottom-line growth in
4QFY2010 to a certain extent. However, going forward, the company’s ongoing
Capex plans and addition of capital to the extent of Rs2,000cr over the next couple
of years could restrict a substantial expansion in NPM.
Quarterly Volumes
8,000 100
6,000 70
40
4,000
10
2,000
(20)
0 (50)
1QFY07
2QFY07
3QFY07
4QFY07
1QFY08
2QFY08
3QFY08
4QFY08
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
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4QFY10
Market Share (RHS) Buses-Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS)
2QFY07
3QFY07
4QFY07
1QFY08
2QFY08
3QFY08
4QFY08
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
• Freight rates are showing improvement in the southern and western regions,
and expected to show an uptrend in the eastern and northern regions going
forward. The southern market where the company has a strong hold (around
50% market share in the south, which accounts for 30% of total industry) picked
up strongly in 4QFY2010. The JNNURM programme for urban fleet
modernisation calls for mobilisation of 14,000 vehicles. Out of this, ALL has
bagged orders for around 5,100 buses, of which majority was supplied in
FY2010. Management expects overall recovery in the M&HCV Segment to spell
growth for the company as well, and management is sanguine of 18-15% yoy
growth in overall volumes in FY2011E.
• Going ahead, with the increasing trend in Steel and Rubber prices, the company
expects pressure on its Margins. Management has guided for a sustainable
OPM of 10%, primarily from commensurate Top-line growth combined with
effective inventory management (Just-In-Time process at the Uttaranchal plant)
and better operating leverage to net off any increase in raw material costs in the
coming quarters. During FY2010, due to overall spurt in Raw Material prices,
the company hiked prices to the extent of Rs50,000 per vehicle.
• The company expects that there exists a possibility of further rise in product
prices, due to higher input costs and emission norm changes from October
2010. It may have to raise the price per vehicle by almost Rs40,000 to absorb
the cost fully.
• ALL plans to more than double its capacity of 100,000 vehicles per annum over
the next three years, and has earmarked capex of Rs2,000cr for FY2010-11E
including Rs800cr investments in the various joint ventures. ALL plans to invest
Rs1,200cr towards capacity addition at its Uttranchal plant, product
development of the Neptune engines and developments pertaining to the Euro
III norms for vehicles.
• ALL along with group companies will also invest about Rs100cr in its financial
arm, and has already received approval from RBI in March 2010 for the same.
This would further help the customers to provide fiscal support.
• ALL has entered into an initial agreement to form a joint venture (JV) with Nissan
Motor Company for the development, manufacture and distribution of light
commercial vehicle (LCV) products. As ALL has a negligible presence in the LCV
space, this partnership would be positive for it in the long run. The two
companies may also share each others dealer networks in India and overseas,
as an extension of this partnership. ALL expects vehicle roll outs to start from the
JV from 2011. Its JV with John Deere is expected to start production from
October 2010.
We have revised upwards our EPS estimates for ALL to Rs3.8 (Rs3.5) for FY2011E
and Rs4.5 (Rs4.2) in FY2012E. At the CMP of Rs60, the stock is trading at 15.8x
FY2011E and 13.4x FY2012E EPS. We recommend a Neutral on the stock owing to
the recent run up in the stock price. Our Fair Value for the stock works out to Rs62
(Rs59), at which level the stock would trade at 14x FY2012E Earnings.
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Ratios
Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 18.6 17.7 44.6 18.7 15.8 13.4
P/CEPS 13.4 12.3 21.6 12.7 10.2 8.8
P/BV 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.2 2.9
Dividend yield (%) 2.5 2.5 1.7 2.5 2.7 3.3
EV/Sales 1.0 0.9 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9
EV/EBITDA 12.2 10.4 21.6 12.9 10.3 9.0
EV / Total Assets 3.0 2.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5
Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Basic) 3.2 3.4 1.3 3.2 3.8 4.5
EPS (fully diluted) 3.2 3.4 1.3 3.2 3.8 4.5
Cash EPS 4.5 4.9 2.8 4.7 5.9 6.8
DPS 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.0
Book Value 14.1 16.0 15.9 16.7 18.5 20.4
Dupont Analysis
EBIT margin 7.1 7.9 4.5 11.5 7.8 7.7
Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8
Asset turnover (x) 3.7 3.1 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1
ROIC (Post-tax) 19.2 18.0 7.1 17.3 12.0 12.9
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 3.1 7.3 10.2 3.6 5.1 4.7
Leverage (x) - - 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4
Operating ROE 19.2 18.0 6.3 23.5 15.1 16.5
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax) 20.8 20.9 6.2 15.1 11.7 12.5
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 22.9 22.4 6.5 12.8 14.5 16.0
ROE 26.7 23.2 6.8 20.8 13.6 15.1
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 3.1 2.9 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.4
Inventory / Sales (days) 49.2 52.8 76.1 63.8 52.2 52.8
Receivables (days) 23.6 20.7 39.7 30.4 26.1 24.3
Payables (days) 69.8 82.3 113.2 94.5 81.8 83.5
Working capital cycle (ex-
18.1 15.2 32.4 28.8 11.8 10.8
cash) (days)
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity (0.0) (0.1) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4
Net debt to EBITDA (0.0) (0.2) 3.5 1.5 1.9 1.5
Interest Coverage (EBIT /
18.1 8.3 1.7 10.7 5.2 6.4
Interest)
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