RMSE

α
γ

Month Demand dt Smoothed S_t Trend St

18-Jul 686
18-Aug 789 789.0 103.0
18-Sep 881 889.8 102.3
18-Oct 976 988.9 101.4
18-Nov 982 1068.6 94.9
18-Dec 712 1073.2 67.8
19-Jan 878 1088.4 52.0
19-Feb 987 1109.7 42.8
19-Mar 1378 1197.6 56.3
19-Apr 1262 1255.6 56.8
19-May 1100 1269.9 44.1
19-Jun 745 1200.2 9.9
19-Jul 867 1141.5 -10.7
19-Aug 668 1038.3 -38.4
19-Sep 848 969.5 -47.5
19-Oct 1023 942.2 -41.5
19-Nov 980 916.5 -36.7
19-Dec 883 880.5 -36.5
20-Jan 920 859.2 -32.0
20-Feb 998 861.4 -21.7
20-Mar 1460 963.7 15.5
20-Apr 1212 1025.8 29.5
20-May 1106 1065.4 32.5
20-Jun 907 1059.7 21.1
20-Jul
20-Aug
20-Sep
20-Oct
20-Nov
20-Des

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Column
-
Column
 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Column
-
Column
Column
Column
-

-1

-1
 DES-HOLT

270.8 MAD 204.6

0.2 MSE 73313.3
0.3 MAPE 22.42%
0.3

Forecast Demand dt' Error |Error| Error^2 |% Error|

892 -11.00 11.00 121.0 1.25%

992 -16.14 16.14 260.5 1.65%
1090 -108.28 108.28 11725.3 11.03%
1164 -451.50 451.50 203853.6 63.41%
1141 -262.99 262.99 69161.5 29.95%
1140 -153.39 153.39 23529.7 15.54%
1153 225.48 225.48 50842.7 16.36%
1254 8.06 8.06 64.9 0.64%
1312 -212.37 212.37 45100.8 19.31%
1314 -568.97 568.97 323723.9 76.37%
1210 -343.11 343.11 117723.0 39.57%
1131 -462.83 462.83 214215.0 69.29%
1000 -151.84 151.84 23056.7 17.91%
922 101.06 101.06 10212.7 9.88%
901 79.32 79.32 6291.0 8.09%
880 3.16 3.16 10.0 0.36%
844 76.05 76.05 5783.9 8.27%
827 170.80 170.80 29172.5 17.11%
840 620.35 620.35 384833.6 42.49%
979 232.77 232.77 54181.2 19.21%
1055 50.74 50.74 2574.3 4.59%
1098 -190.93 190.93 36454.7 21.05%
1081
1102
1123
1144
1165
1186

0 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Column N
Column O
0 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Column N
Column O
Column P
Column Q
RSFE Cumulative Cum |Error| MAD TS UCL CL LCL

-11.00 11.00 11.00 -1.00 4 0 -4

-27.14 27.14 13.57 -2.00 4 0 -4
-135.42 135.42 45.14 -3.00 4 0 -4
-586.93 586.93 146.73 -4.00 4 0 -4
-849.91 849.91 169.98 -5.00 4 0 -4
-1003.30 1003.30 167.22 -6.00 4 0 -4
-777.82 1228.79 175.54 -4.43 4 0 -4
-769.77 1236.84 154.61 -4.98 4 0 -4
-982.14 1449.21 161.02 -6.10 4 0 -4
-1551.10 2018.18 201.82 -7.69 4 0 -4
-1894.21 2361.29 214.66 -8.82 4 0 -4
-2357.04 2824.12 235.34 -10.02 4 0 -4
-2508.89 2975.97 228.92 -10.96 4 0 -4
-2407.83 3077.02 219.79 -10.96 4 0 -4
-2328.51 3156.34 210.42 -11.07 4 0 -4
-2325.35 3159.50 197.47 -11.78 4 0 -4
-2249.30 3235.56 190.33 -11.82 4 0 -4
-2078.50 3406.36 189.24 -10.98 4 0 -4
-1458.15 4026.70 211.93 -6.88 4 0 -4
-1225.38 4259.47 212.97 -5.75 4 0 -4
-1174.64 4310.21 205.25 -5.72 4 0 -4
-1365.57 4501.14 204.60 -6.67 4 0 -4