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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 001801
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR H - PLEASE PASS CODEL MARSHALL
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2019
TAGS: PTER MOPS PINR OREP KE SO AF IZ
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - CODEL MARSHALL SCENESETTER: HOW
IRAQ/AFGHANISTAN RELATE TO SOMALIA
Classified By: Ambassador Michael E. Ranneberger for reasons 1.4(b) and
(d).
¶1. (S//NF) Summary: U.S. Embassy Nairobi warmly welcomes
CODEL Marshall and looks forward to your September 1-3 visit.
We note your questions regarding media reports that pressure
in Iraq/Afghanistan has prompted al-Qa,ida to shift some of
its operations/efforts to Somalia (ref A). To address this
question, we have reviewed a body of available information
from press, embassy, and other reporting. The rise of
al-Shabaab and the increase in foreign fighters operating in
Somalia warrants significant concern; several al-Qa,ida
operatives, most notably Saleh Nabhan, have a history of
involvement in East Africa and are currently cooperating with
al-Shabaab leaders and involved in training foreign fighters
in Somalia. We speculate that, due to pressure especially in
Afghanistan, al-Qa,ida could consider Somalia a safer
training ground for foreign fighters, some of whom may intend
subsequently to travel to Afghanistan or Iraq. However,
based on a review of foreign fighter trends and
al-Qa,ida/al-Shabaab operations, we are unable to establish
a strong correlation between recent military pressure on
al-Qa,ida in Iraq and Afghanistan and increased al-Qa,ida
influence/efforts in Somalia. Nonetheless, there is a clear
threat from al-Qaida linked extremists and growing numbers of
foreign fighters in Somalia over the past several years,
which are directly challenging the efforts of the
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to establish itself.
End Summary.
Foreign Fighters: Origins and Motivations
-----------------------------------------
¶2. (S//NF) Many of the foreign fighters currently operating
in Somalia, particularly those who entered to fight the
Ethiopians from 2006-2008, are ethnic Somalis, recruited from
either neighboring countries or diasporas overseas and
motivated in the past by a sense of Somali nationalism,
jihadist propaganda, and the presence of foreign troops in
the country. As widely covered in the press, this includes
North Americans, including at least 20 young men who were
recruited from Minneapolis alone, and recruits from European
countries with large Somali diasporas. Fighters have also
come from within East Africa, most notably Kenya and Sudan.
In addition, press reports and our conversations with Somali
government officials note the presence of an unknown number
of non-Somali fighters from South Asia and the Middle East,
including Pakistanis, Yemenis, and other unidentified
&Arabs8. We speculate some of these fighters may have
chosen, or been directed to, Somalia for training and to gain
jihadist experiences because Somalia currently affords
comparatively greater safety for camps and other sites than