Alpha(A) 0.

Period (t) Actual Demand Error Ft Error

1 42 42
2 40 42
3 43 41.2
4 40 41.92
5 41 41.152
6 39 41.0912
7 46 40.25472
8 44 42.55283
9 45 43.1317
10 38 43.87902
11 40 41.52741
12 ? 40.91645
13 ? 40.54987
14 ? 40.32992
15 ? 40.19795
? 40.11877
? 40.07126
? 40.04276
? 40.02565
? 40.01539
? 40.00924
? 40.00554
? 40.00332
? 40.00199
Level Lt
Trend Tt
Seasonal St
 Alpha(A) 0.2
Beta(B) 0.3
Ft+1=Lt+Tt

Period Demand Error Lt Tt Ft

1 405
2 410 410 5
3 420 416 5.3 415 -5
4 415 420.04 4.922 421.3 6.3
5 412 422.3696 4.14428 424.962 12.962
6 420 425.2111 3.7534472 426.5139 6.51388
7 424 427.9716 3.4555741 428.9646 4.964551
8 433 431.7418 3.5499412 431.4272 -1.572785
9 438 435.8334 3.7124384 435.2917 -2.708287
10 440 439.6366 3.7396899 439.5458 -0.454191
11 446 443.9011 3.8971097 443.3763 -2.623663
12 451 448.4385 4.0892189 447.7982 -3.201821
13 455 453.0222 4.2375531 452.5278 -2.472238
14 464 458.6078 4.6419674 457.2598 -6.740237
15 466 463.7998 4.8069807 463.2498 -2.750222
1 468.6068
2 473.4138 0.247461
3 478.2208
4 483.0277
5 487.8347
6 492.6417
7 497.4487
8 502.2557
9 507.0626
10 511.8696
463.7998
Ft+1=Lt+Tt
 Alpha 0.2
Beta 0.3
Gamma 0.4

Year Quarter Period t Dt Error Lt Tt St Ft

2005 2 1 8000 0.4102564
2005 3 2 13000 0.6666667
2005 4 3 23000 1.1794872
2006 1 4 34000 1.7435897
2006 2 5 10000 24375 4875 0.4102564
2006 3 6 18000 28800 4740 0.65 19500
2006 4 7 23000 30732 3897.6 1.0070545 39560
2007 1 8 38000 32062.5 3127.471 1.5202279 60379.8154
2007 2 9 12000 34001.98 2771.073 0.3873221 14436.9127
2007 3 10 13000 33418.44 1764.689 0.5456027 23902.484
2007 4 11 32000 34501.67 1560.252 0.9752292 35431.3319
2008 1 12 41000 34243.47 1014.715 1.3910602 54822.3418
1 13656.2731
2 19790.5908
3 36363.9689
4 53280.8414
5 39317.0413
6 80663.5121
7 124039.412
8 169444.742
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0