Climate change: The scientific basis

Updated Mon. Feb. 5 2007 5:29

Scientists first started theorizing about human activity impacting climate change
in the early 1960s.

The first major international meeting on climate change took place in 1979.
Delegates issued a statement expressing concern that "continued expansion of
man's activities on earth may cause significant extended regional and even
global changes of climate."

While there was talk of a new global body to address this threat, the wheels of
international organizations turn slowly.

In 1985, another international conference found that "as a result of the increasing
greenhouse gases it is now believed that in the first half of the next century (21st
century) a rise of global mean temperature could occur which is greater than in
any man's history."

Two years later, there was agreement that a new organization was needed to
monitor this emerging threat.

What is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)?

The United Nations Environment Program and the World Meteorological Program
created the IPCC in 1988.

From the IPCC website:

"The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and
transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information
relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate
change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation."

What doesn't it do?

Again, from the website:

"The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data or
other relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and
published scientific/technical literature. Its role, organisation, participation and
general procedures are laid down in the 'Principles Governing IPCC Work'."

Who's involved?

Climate change experts from all over the world and 154 countries plus relevant
non-governmental organizations (NGOs).
Several Canadian scientists have played and continue to play leading roles
within the IPCC, including Dr. Andrew Weaver of the University of Victoria and
Dr. Gordon McBean of the University of Western Ontario.

They meet once a year and table an assessment every five or six years. The
IPCC released its first assessment in 1990. It released subsequent ones in 1995
and 2001.

What was contained in the assessment?

The first part of the fourth assessment dealt with the scientific basis for the theory
that climate change is actually occurring.

However, three other parts will be released over the course of the year. They will
include areas like the impact of climate change, how it can be mitigated and
greenhouse gas inventories. Observers are particularly looking forward to the
report on the impact of change.

What was it expected to say?

That human-influenced climate change is indeed happening, that it can't be

explained away as a natural phenomenon -- and that is destined to get much
worse in the future.

The Associated Press reported the following excerpts from earlier drafts in a Jan.
22 story:
"Observations of coherent warming in the global atmosphere, in the ocean, and
in snow and ice now provide stronger joint evidence of warming," and
"An increasing body of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on other
aspects of climate including sea ice, heat waves and other extremes, circulation,
storm tracks and precipitation."

That seems like cautious language. Is there a reason?

The IPCC is a cautious group.

"In a way, it is one of the strengths of the IPCC to be very conservative and
cautious and not overstate any climate change risk," said Stefan Rahmstorf, a
physics and oceanography professor at Potsdam University in Germany, in a
Jan. 28 AP story.

What's the main controversy right now?

Some experts have accused the IPCC of "sugarcoating" the assessment by not
taking into account the melt-off of two major ice sheets in Greenland and
Antarctica.

By doing so, the assessment is "obviously not the full story because ice sheet
decay is something we cannot model right now, but we know it's happening,"
Rahmstorf said.

Another excerpt from the Jan. 28 AP story:

"Those scientists who say sea level will rise even more are battling a consensus-
building structure that routinely issues scientifically cautious global warming
reports, scientists say. The IPCC reports have to be unanimous, approved by
154 governments -- including the United States and oil-rich countries such as
Saudi Arabia -- and already published peer-reviewed research done before mid-
2006."

What are some of the main findings?

The early assessments were correct. The report finds that the climate is
warming, and that human influences are "very likely" to have caused that.

To put the "very likely" into context, that means scientists think human influence
is more than 90 per cent likely to be causing global warming and the resultant
climate change that we are seeing.

"Extremely likely" means more than a 95 per cent chance, and "virtually certain"
is more than 99 per cent. In the 2001 report, scientists said human influence was
likely the reason, which mean more than a 66 per cent chance.

The report found that 11 of the last 12 years have been among the warmest
based on global surface temperature since 1850. The report found that
atmospheric and ocean temperatures have also increased.

Mountain glaciers and snow pack have declined in size in both hemispheres. The
permafrost zone is shrinking. Sea levels are rising. Heat waves are increasing in
intensity and frequency.

However, there were some anomalies. For example, the report found that
Antarctic sea ice has shown no statistically significant changes.

The IPCC expects warming of about 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade. If
greenhouse gas emissions were held at 2000 levels, the report predicted
temperatures would still rise 0.1 degrees per decade.

If greenhouse gas emissions continue at or above current rates, that would likely
drive changes that were greater than what was seen during the 20th century.
The probable temperature rise by the end of the 21st century will be between 1.8
and 4 degrees. The possible range is 1.1 degrees to 6.4 degrees. Sea levels will
go up by 28 to 43 centimetres.

"It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will
continue to become more frequent," the report said.

One sobering finding is that even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized,
global warming will continue because of "feedback." For example, ice sheets
reflect the sun's energy. As ice disappears, that means more of the sun's energy
is absorbed by the earth and radiated into the atmosphere. "The magnitude of
this feedback is uncertain," the report said.

On balance, the report found that past and future human-caused greenhouse gas
emissions will contribute to global warming for at least a millenium, due to the
time required for these gases to disappear from the atmosphere.

What happens now that the report has been released?

Policy-makers hopefully use the report to guide their decision-making.

The 1990 report led to the United Nations Framework on climate Change. The
1995 report was used in negotiations for the Kyoto Protocols on fighting climate
change.

This report comes out as the world's country's are trying to establish the
framework for "Kyoto II," a new treaty to replace Kyoto, which expires in 2012.

What individual countries will do in response is an open question. However,

because it's a consensus report, countries that participated -- which includes
Canada -- are essentially saying they agree with its assertion that climate change
is happening and that human activity is driving it.