Volume 6, Issue 7 • July/August 2010

The Summers of Our Discontent: 1994, 2006, and 2010

Rereading the polls from late summer 1994 suggests that pollsters saw a big change in the offing, but they were cautious
about the prospect of the first Republican takeover of the House in 40 years. In 2006, dissatisfaction with the Bush
administration and the war in Iraq foreshadowed substantial pick-ups by House Democrats. Below are some key indica-
tors from the summers of 1994, 2006, and today. According to Vital Statistics on Congress, there have been only four elec-
tions in the past half-century in which either party has gained more than 35 seats.
1994 – Clinton 2006 – Bush 2010 – Obama
President’s party’s loss –54 D –30 R ?
(Number of seats)

Presidential approval
July 42% 40% 46%
August 39 42 ?

Satisfaction with way things are going

July 33% 33% 21%
August – 28 ?

Congressional approval
June/July 27% 29% 20%
August – 27 ?

Generic ballot Dem./Rep. Dem./Rep. Dem./Rep.

June 51% / 42% 54% / 38% 46% / 45%
July 45% / 46% 51% / 41% 49% / 43%

Want most members

of Congress reelected Yes No Yes No Yes No
June – – 29% 57% 31% 56%
Early October 28% 56% 32 48 ? ?

Election enthusiasm by party

(Summer) 45%(R) / 30%(D)* 30%(R) / 46%(D) 56%(R) /42%(D)

Consumer confidence
July 89 85 67**
August 92 82 ?

Top issue
Summer Crime War with Iraq The economy

Top news story

Summer OJ Simpson Gas prices Oil spill
Note: *1994 enthusiasm poll from October. **July Consumer confidence rating is a preliminary rating.
Source: Seat Loss (Vital Statistics on Congress 2008), Approval (Gallup), Satisfaction (Gallup), Congressional Approval (Gallup), Generic Ballot
(Gallup), Most members reelection (PSRA/Pew), Enthusiasm (PSRA/Pew and Gallup), Consumer Confidence (University of Michigan), Top Issue
(Gallup), Top News Story (PSRA/Pew).

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 Election Watch
Congress’s approval continues to be low in all the polls. In the July NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, for example, only
22 percent approved of the job Congress was doing. Gallup noted in a recent release that Congress’s ratings this year
“rank among the lowest Gallup has measured in a midterm election year.” The Gallup analysts also wrote that in the five
midterms in which Congress’s ratings at the time of the election were below 50 percent, “there was an average net change
in seats of 29 from the president’s party to the opposition.” Some election indicators are below.
Q: Do you . . . ?
Approve Disapprove
The way Republicans in Congress are handling their job 29% 59%

The way Democrats in Congress are handling their job 31% 59%
Source: Quinnipiac University, July 2010.

Q: Regardless of how you might vote in your own congressional district, do you think . . . ?
It is more important to . . . July 2010
Have the Democrats in charge of
Congress to help support Obama’s policies 43%
Have the Republicans in charge of
Congress to act as a check on Obama’s policies 51
Note: Sample is registered voters.
Source: ABC/Washington Post, July 2010.

Q: Generally, what is more important to you this year . . . ?

June 2010 June 2006 October 1994
Having new faces in office is more important 41% 30% 31%
Having experienced people who know how
the government works 50 59 57
Source: PSRA/Pew, latest that of June 2010.

Q: If there were a place on your ballot that allowed you to vote to defeat and replace every single member of Congress,
including your own representative, would you do this or not?
June 2010
Would vote to defeat and replace every single member
of Congress including your own representative 47%
Would not 50
Note: In March, those responses were 50 and 47 percent, respectively. Sample is registered voters.
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, June 2010.

Q: Will your vote for Congress this November . . . ?

June 2010 June 2006
For Obama For Bush
Be a vote to send a signal of support 27% 21%
A signal of opposition 32 38
Not a signal either way 39 39
Note: Sample is registered voters.
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of June 2010.

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 The Primaries . . . Continue!
Twenty-eight states have held their primaries for the 2010 elections. Though the primary season is more than halfway
over, there are still many races worth watching. Here’s the schedule.
Looking ahead to November, Roll Call reported recently that the GOP will field candidates in 430 of 435 districts this
fall, a record for the party. Democrats, the paper reports, still hold the record for the most candidates on a general elec-
tion ballot, 434 in 1958 and 1964. This year Democrats will not field challengers against more than 20 Republicans. The
overall numbers don’t say much about the strength of each party’s bench or the quality of individual candidates.

Remaining 2010 statewide primaries

August 3: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri
August 5: Tennessee
August 10: Colorado, Connecticut
August 17: Washington, Wyoming
August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida
August 28: Louisiana
September 14: Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont,
Wisconsin
September 18: Hawaii

The Economy
Deep distress about the economy is clear in all polls today. Gallup reports more broadly that dissatisfaction with the way
things are going in the country today is the “lowest Gallup has measured in a midterm election year.” Americans aren’t
confident that the stimulus has helped. Extending unemployment benefits has majority support in most polls. People dis-
approve of the way the president is handling the economy, but they aren’t confident that Republicans would do better.
Responses to questions about whether Washington should spend more to stimulate the economy or focus on reducing
the deficit vary depending on question wording.

Scoring the Stimulus

Q: Thinking about the economic stimulus passed by Congress last year, do you think . . . ?
The stimulus has Has not
Increased the federal budget deficit 66% 23%
Led to improvements in roads, bridges
and other infrastructure in your area 43 49
Helped keep unemployment from
getting even worse 35 57
Helped state and local governments
avoid layoffs and budget cuts 29 60
Source: PSRA/Pew, July 2010. (continued on the next page)

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; John Fortier, Research Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew
Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Rugg, Editor.
Michael Barone, Resident Fellow. Interns: Lauren Hitt, Jane Makin.

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(continued from the previous page)

Q: So far, do you think . . . ?

June 2010 April 2010
The government’s stimulus package
has made the economy better 23% 32%
Worse 18 18
Had no impact so far 56 44
Note: In a mid-July Time poll, 5 percent said the stimulus program helped the economy a lot, 38 percent some, 11 percent hurt it some, and
11% hurt it a lot. Thirty-two percent said it didn’t have much impact.
Source: CBS, July 2010.

Q: So far, do you think . . . ?

The federal government’s economic
stimulus plan has created a lot of new jobs 5%
Some 29
A few 23
Hardly any at all 40
Note: Sample is registered voters.
Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, July 2010.

Q: Would you . . . ?
Favor additional spending for a second stimulus 24%
Oppose 67
Source: SRBI for Time, July 2010.

Unemployment Benefits’ Extension

Q: Because of the economic downturn, Congress has extended the period in which people can receive unemployment
benefits and is considering doing so again. Supporters say this will help those who can’t find work. Opponents say this
adds too much to the federal budget deficit. Do you think . . . ?
Congress should approve another
extension of unemployment benefits 62%
Should not 36
Source: ABC/Washington Post, July 2010.

Q: Do you think Congress should . . .?

Extend unemployment benefits for people who
are currently out of work even if it means
increasing the budget deficit 52%
Should not 39
Source: CBS, July 2010.

Q: Long-term unemployment is near a record high. The government is considering again extending unemployment ben-
efits so that people could continue to receive payments for as long as 99 weeks, instead of the normal 26 week cut-off.
That would add $34 billion to the deficit. Do you . . . ?
Favor extending unemployment benefits 47%
Oppose 49
Source: Selzer & Company/Bloomberg, July 2010.
(continued on the next page)

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Perspectives on the Deficit

Q: If you were setting priorities for the government these days, would you . . . ?
July February July June
2010 2010 2009 2009
Place a higher priority on reducing
the budget deficit 51% 47% 38% 46
Spend more to help the economy recover 40 47 53 48
Note: Not all response categories are included.
Source: PSRA/Pew, latest that of July 2010.

Q: Which comes closer to your own view? The federal government should . . .
——Responses of——
National Rep. Dem. Ind.
Spend money to create jobs, even if
it means increasing the budget deficit 46% 25% 63% 46%
Should not spend money to create jobs
and should instead focus on reducing
the budget deficit 47 72 27 46
Source: CBS, July 2010.

Q: Which of the following two statements comes closer to your point of view?
The president and Congress should worry more
about boosting the economy even though
it may mean larger deficits in the future 34%
Should worry more about keeping the budget
deficit down, even though it may mean it will
take longer for the economy to recover 63
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, June 2010.

Obama, the Republicans, and the Economy

Approve Disapprove
42% CNN/ORC (July) 57%
39 Quinnipiac (July) 56
40 CBS (July) 54
44 Bloomberg (July) 52
43 ABC/Post (July) 54
43 PSRA/Pew (June) 51
46 NBC/WSJ (June) 50

Q: Do you think . . . ?
Democratic policies are more likely
to improve the economy 37%
Republican policies are 40
Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, July 2010.
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Q: Which political party do you . . . ? Q: Who do you . . . ?

Trust the Democrats to do a better job July 2010 Nov. 2009
handling the economy 42% Trust Obama to do a better job
The Republicans 34 handling the economy 41% 56%
Both/neither 20 Trust the Republicans in Congress 42 26
Source: ABC/Washington Post, July 2010. Source: Quinnipiac, latest that of July 2010.

Recommended Reading: Recession Reactions

In the June issue of Political Report, we looked at a March survey of the unemployed done by Knowledge Networks for
the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University and the State of New Jersey. The pollsters
interviewed a large sample of people who were unemployed, including a significant group that had been unemployed for
a long period of time.
We would also like to recommend a May survey by the social and demographic trends group of the Pew Research
Center. “How the Great Recession Has Changed Life in America: A Balance Sheet at 30 Months” examines the attitudes,
the economic situation, and behavioral changes made by a national sample and various subgroups. The researchers note
that 55 percent of adults in the labor force say “they have suffered a spell of unemployment, a cut in pay, a reduction in
hours or have become involuntary part-time workers.”
Perhaps surprisingly, the survey found that some of those most hard hit by the downturn are the most optimistic
about a recovery. Their statistical analysis found that “blacks, Democrats and, on most questions, younger adults are
more likely than whites, Republicans and older adults to hold positive views about the national economy and their per-
sonal finances, regardless of their income, education, gender or whether they have had difficulty paying their bills, mak-
ing mortgage or rent payments, getting or paying for medical care, or have had to cut spending during the recession.”
The authors offer this explanation for the counterintuitive political responses: “[I]n an age of highly polarized politics,
Democrats and Republicans differ not only in their values, attitudes and policy positions, but, increasingly, in their basic
perceptions of reality.”

Bush Tax 50%

Tax cuts for the wealthy should be
Cuts 40%
repealed, while others stay in place

Q: Which comes 31%

closer to your view 30% 30%
about the tax cuts 27%
passed when
20%
George W. Bush
was president? All of the tax cuts All of the tax cuts
10% should be repealed should remain in place
Source: PSRA/Pew,
latest that of July 2010.

0%

Sep-2004 Sep-2005 Sep-2006 Sep-2007 Sep-2008 Sep-2009 Jul-2010

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 Social Security at 75: Grim Tidings
On August 14, the Social Security program will be 75 years old. Sixty percent of non-retired Americans are not confident
the system will be able to pay them a benefit. Seventy-six percent of 18-34 year olds give that response.
Q: Do you think . . . ?

70% Social Security will be able to pay a benefit when you retire
60%
Will
60%
50%

40%
Will Not
30% 36%
20%

10%

0%
1989 1990 1991 1991 1992 1994 2000 2001 2004 2010
Source: Gallup, latest that of July 2010.

Obama’s Personal Qualities

In other sections of this report, we show how Americans are reacting to policies of the Obama administration. Here we
review some recent survey questions on the president’s personal attributes. He has lost ground on these, too.
Q: When it comes to the presidency of Barack Obama, do you . . . ?
June 2010 January 2009
Strongly relate to him as your president 29% 50%
Somewhat relate to him 27 26
Relate to him only a little 14 12
Do not really relate to him 30 8
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of June 2010.

Q: How would you rate Barack Obama on the following qualities . . . ?

———————————Very good rating———————————
June 2010 January 2009
Being easy going and likeable 64% 77%
Being compassionate enough to
understand average people 51 70
Being honest and straightforward 46 63
Being firm and decisive in decision making 44 63
Note: Respondents ranked each quality of a 5-point scale. Responses of 4 or 5 are considered here as a very good rating.
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, latest that of June 2010.
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Q: As I read some pairs of opposite phrases, please tell me which one best reflects your impression of Barack Obama.
June 2010 February 2009
Trustworthy 58% 76%
Not trustworthy 37 15

Warm and friendly 68% 87%

Cold and aloof 26 8
Note: Not all categories shown.
Source: PSRA/Pew, latest that of June 2010.

Q: Are you proud or ashamed to have ______ as President?

Proud or ashamed to have as President

90%
82%
80%
70%
Bush:Proud Obama:Proud
60%
Clinton:Ashamed 53% 50%
50% 45%
44%
40% 38% 39%
42%
30%
Proud Ashamed Ashamed
20%
10%
8%
0%
Jul-98 Jul-99 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Apr-10

Source: Zogby, latest that of April 2010.

Here Come the Republicans

Q: Next, we’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the new. As I read each name, please say if you have a
favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people–or have never heard of them. How about . . . ?
Among self-identified
Nationally Republicans
Favorable image
Sarah Palin 44% 76%
Mike Huckabee 40 65
Newt Gingrich 36 64
Mitt Romney 36 54
Bobby Jindal 34 45
Source: Gallup, July 2010.

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 Tea Party Trends
In most polls, views of the Tea Party have held steady in recent months. Those aware of the movement describe it as con-
servative. In Gallup’s analysis, 29 percent nationally are conservative Republicans. Sixty-two percent of Tea Party sup-
porters are. In Quinnipiac’s new poll, 12 percent describe themselves as supporters of the movement. In a separate
question, 33 percent have a favorable opinion of it.
Q: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not? (CBS)
Q: From what you know, do you strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the Tea Party movement,
or don’t you have an opinion either way? (PSRA/Pew)
Q: Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, an opponent of the Tea Party movement,
or neither? (Gallup)
Q: Now I’m going to read you the names of several public figures and groups, and I’d like you to rate your feelings
toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very negative. (NBC/WSJ)
Q: Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party movement or not? (Quinnipiac)
Q: Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable, or haven’t you heard enough about it? (Quinnipiac)
CBS PSRA/Pew* Gallup NBC/WSJ
Supporter/Not Agree/Disagree Supporter/Opponent Positive/Negative
27% 56% (July) 24% 18% (June) 31% 30% (June) 34% 31% (June)
20 59 (May) 25 18 (May) 29 28 (May) 31 30 (Late May)
24 14 (March) 28 26 (March) 29 28 (March)

Quinnipiac Quinnipiac
Part of it/Not Favorable/Unfavorable
12% 81% (July) 33% 31% (July)
15 79 (April) 32 31 (April)
13 80 (March) 28 23 (March)
Note: *The PSRA/Pew responses shown here are based on responses to two questions. The first asked people how much they had heard
about the Tea Party movement, and then those who had heard a lot or a little were asked whether they agreed with it or had no opinion
either way.

———Ideological makeup of Tea Party supporters and all Americans——

Lib. Mod. Cons. Pure Mod/Lib Con.
Dem. Dem. Dem. Ind. Rep. Rep.
Tea Party supporters 3% 7% 5% 6% 17% 62%

All Americans 18 19 9 8 15 29
Note: Ideological breakdown based on the three Gallup surveys conducted March, May, and June 2010.
Source: Gallup, latest that of June 2010.

Q: Would you say the Tea Party movement is . . . ?

Very conservative 17%
Conservative 18
Moderate 7
Liberal 3
Very liberal 1
No opinion either way 30
Note: Question asked of those who had heard a lot or a little about the Tea Party movement = 76 percent of the sample.
Source: PSRA/Pew, June 2010.
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(continued from the previous page)
Q: Please tell me which of the following statements . . . ?
Comes closest to your view of the Tea Party movement
It is a genuine political movement that has new ideas
and programs that would improve the way
government works 36%
It is a fringe protest movement and lacks new ideas
that would improve the way government works 30
No opinion 27
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, June 2010.

How Angry?
The first question in the Roper Center’s archive of polls that uses the words “anger” or “angry” appeared in 1944. People
who had heard or read about a disagreement between Congress and the president over taxes needed to fund the war were
told that “the words used by the president in vetoing the tax bill made many congressmen angry.” In response, 49 percent
said that the president should always try to be friendly when addressing Congress, while 44 percent said he should scold
Congress if he wanted to. Only one question about anger appeared during the Eisenhower years. In 1980, the Roper
Organization started asking a question in which they asked people to react to policies using adjectives such as “angry” or
“boiling mad.” In 1992, ABC News and the Washington Post started asking the question we show here about the federal
government. Dissatisfaction dominates in the ABC/Post trend; in the Pew and Newsweek surveys (also shown here), frus-
tration does. Around a quarter in both surveys describe themselves as angry.
Q: I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which best describes how you feel about the way the federal gov-
ernment works. Do you feel . . . ?

70%

60% Dissatisfied Satisfied

50%

40% 43%

32%
30%
25%
20%
Angry

10%
Enthusiastic 3%
0%
Mar-1992 Mar-1995 Mar-1998 Mar-2001 Mar-2004 Mar-2007 Mar-2010

Note: November 2–4, 2002; October 27, 2002; September 28, 1998; and October 4, 1992 polls were asked of likely voters. November 6,
1994 and October 4, 1994 polls were asked of registered voters.
Source: ABC/Washington Post, latest that of July 2010. (continued on the next page)

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Q: On another subject . . . some people say they are basi- Q: Are you . . . ?
cally content with the federal government, others say The amount of federal
they are frustrated, and others say they are angry. Which income taxes you and
best describes how you feel? your family paid last year
Basically Angry Satisfied
content Frustrated Angry January 1985* 27% 47%
Sept.–Oct. 1997 29% 56% 12% February 1986* 34 43
February 2000 33 54 10 April 2010 40 36
June 2000 28 53 13
Note: *Polls taken by the Los Angeles Times. The April 2010 ques-
November 2001 53 34 8 tion was asked between April 9 and 11.
March 2004 32 52 13 Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, April 2010.
Sept.–Oct. 2006 21 54 20
Dec. 06–Jan. 07 21 58 16 Q: Overall, which comes closest to your . . . ?
March 2010 19 56 21
April 2010 23 52 21 Feelings about the
June 2010 21 52 24 ———Obama administration———

Source: Sept–Oct 1997 through March 2010, PSRA/Pew. June 2010, ——Responses of——
PSRA/Newsweek. National Dem. Rep. Ind.
Extremely happy 9% 17% 1% 6%
Q: Which of the following statements comes closest to Satisfied 37 65 12 33
your view of the way the Democratic Party and Republi- Disappointed 32 15 44 40
can Party have been dealing with the country’s problems? Angry 21 2 43 21
—Way parties are Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, June 2010.
dealing with the
country’s problems— Q: How would you describe your feelings toward Presi-
June January dent Obama . . . ?
2010 2010 ——Responses of——
You are angry at both parties 53% 48% National Dem. Rep. Ind.
You are only angry at Admire 17% 33% 3% 14%
the Republicans 9 9 Satisfied 33 54 13 31
You are only angry at Dissatisfied 33 10 54 35
the Democrats 7 11 Angry 15 2 28 18
You are not angry at either party 31 32
Source: Quinnipiac, July 2010.
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation.
Q: In general, does the . . . ?
Q: Please tell me if each of following . . . ?
Number of illegal aliens in
Describes your feeling of this country makes you feel
the health care reform law Angry 23%
Angry Dissatisfied 51
Sept. 2009 31% Satisfied 20
October 2009 40 Pleased 6
December 2009 35 Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, July 2010.
April 2010 30
May 2010 30
June 2010 31
Source: Kaiser, latest that of June 2010.

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 Health Care
The Health Care Bill
Q: As of right now, do you generally favor or generally oppose the health care proposals being discussed in Congress?
(PSRA/Pew)
Q: From what you’ve heard or read, do you mostly approve or mostly disapprove of the proposed changes to the health
care system under consideration in Congress? (CBS/NYT)
Q: In general, do you support, oppose or neither support nor oppose the health care reform plans being discussed in
Congress? (AP/Gfk Roper)
Q: As you may know, a new health care bill was signed into law earlier this year. Given what you know about the new
health reform law, do you have a generally favorable, or generally unfavorable opinion of it? (Kaiser)
Q: From what you have heard about Barack Obama’s health care plan, do you think his plan is a good idea or a bad
idea? If you do not have an opinion either way, please just say so. (NBC/WSJ)

—PSRA/Pew— —CBS/NYT— —AP/Gfk— —Kaiser— —NBC/WSJ—

Fav Opp Fav Opp Sup Opp Fav Unfav Good Bad
Jul. 2009 38% 44% - - - - - - 36% 42%
Aug. 2009 39 46 - - - - - - 36 42
Sept. 2009 42 44 - - 34% 49% - - 39 41
Oct. 2009 34 47 - - 40 40 - - 38 42
Nov. 2009 42 39 40% 45% 39 45 - - - -
Dec. 2009 35 48 - - 36 44 - - 32 47
Jan.2010 39 48 - - 42 42 - - 31 46
Feb. 2010 38 50 - - - - - - - -
Mar. 2010 40 47 37 48* 41 43 - - 36 48
Apr. 2010 40 44 ^ 32 53* 39 50^^ 46% 40% - -
May 2010 - - 43 47* 39 46^^ 41 44 38 44**
Jun. 2010 35 47 ^ - - 45 42^^ 48 41 40 44**
Jul. 2010 - - 36 49* - -
Note: ^Pew question wording read “Do you approve or disapprove of the health care legislation passed by Barack Obama and Congress in
March 2010?” ^^Question wording read “In general, do you support, oppose,or neither support nor oppose the health care reforms that
were passed by Congress in March?” *CBS/NYT question wording read “From what you’ve heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of
the new health care reform bill?” **NBC/WSJ question wording read “From what you have heard about Barack Obama’s health care plan
that was recently passed by Congress and signed into law by the President, do you think his plan is a good idea or a bad idea?

Q: And, would you be more likely to vote for . . . ?

Would vote for
A Democratic candidate for Congress who
says we should give the health care law
a chance to work and then make
changes to it as needed 51%
A Republican candidate for Congress who
says we should repeal the new health care law
entirely and then start over 44
Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal, June 2010.

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How Obama Is Handling Health Care

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling health care? (ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times)
Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling health care policy? (PSRA/Pew)
Q: If you had to choose, do you lean more toward approving or disapproving of the way Barack Obama is handling
health care? (AP/Gfk-Roper)
—ABC/Post— —PSRA/Pew— —CBS/NYT— —AP/Gfk—
App Dis App Dis App Dis App Dis
Jun. 2009 - - - - 44% 34% - -
Jul. 2009 49% 44% 42% 43% 46 48 50% 43%
Aug. 2009 46 50 - - 40 47 - -
Sept. 2009 48 48 - - 47 45 42 52
Oct. 2009 48 48 - - 47 45 48 47
Nov. 2009 47 49 43 47 44 48 49 46
Dec. 2009 44 53 - - 42 50 49 46
Jan. 2010 44 52 38 52 40 54 48 48
Feb. 2010 43 53 - - 35 55 - -
Mar. 2010 48 49 39 52 41 51 49 46
Apr. 2010 49 49 40 51 41 51 44 52
May 2010 - - - - 42 52 45 51
Jun. 2010 - - 42 50 - - 49 46
Jul. 2010 45 50 - - - - - -
Note: In August, 43 percent told PSRA/Pew pollsters that they had “not too much” or “no confidence at all” in Barack Obama to do the right
thing on dealing with health care reform; in December, 51 percent had not too much or no confidence in him. The survey dates for the Pew
poll labeled “October” were September 30–October 4. The survey dates for the Pew poll labeled “November” were October 28–November 8.

Arizona’s Immigration Law

Q: Based on what you’ve heard or read, do you approve of disapprove of Arizona’s new immigration law? (Quinnipiac)
Q: As you may know, the State of Arizona recently passed a law that requires police the power to verify the legal status
of someone they have already stopped or arrest if they suspect that the person is in the country illegally. Do you
approve or disapprove of Arizona’s new immigration law? (PSRA/Pew)
Q: As you may know, the state of Arizona recently passed a law that gives the police the power to question someone
they have already stopped, detained, or arrested about their legal status in the country. The law requires people to pro-
duce documents verifying their status if asked. Do you think this law goes too far in dealing with the issue of illegal
immigration, doesn’t go far enough, or is about right? (CBS)
Q: Based on what you know, do you favor or oppose Arizona’s new immigration law? (Fox/OD)

——Quinnipiac—— ———PSRA/Pew——— ——————CBS——————— ———Fox/OD———

Approve/Disapprove Approve/Disapprove Too far/About right/Not far enough Approve/Disapprove
55% 30% (July) 64% 32% (June) 23% 57% 17% (July) 52% 27% (July)
51 31 (June) 28 52 17 (May) 50 32 (June)

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Q: Would you . . . ? Q: The Obama administration has filed a lawsuit to

Favor your state passing an strike down Arizona’s immigration law. Do you
immigration law like Arizona’s 55% think . . . ?
Oppose 34 Adinistration’s lawsuit is a good idea 28%
Note: Question not asked in Arizona. Responses in May were A bad idea 60
52 percent favor, 31 percent oppose. Responses to a similar Note: Eleven percent of Republicans, 25 percent of indepen-
July Quinnipiac question were nearly identical, with 51 percent dents, and 48 percent of Democrats thought it was a good idea.
in favor of their State passing a similar immigration law and A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll from mid-July told people
35 opposed. “The federal government is suing the state of Arizona because it
Source: Fox/Opinion Dynamics, July 2010. says its new immigration law is unconstitutional.” Twenty-nine
percent favored the lawsuit, while 59 percent opposed it.
Source: Quinnipiac, July 2010.

Vice Presidential Vectors

Vice Presidents Biden, Cheney, and Gore have been in the news lately. Here’s a snapshot of how Americans
see them.
Q: Next, we’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the new. As I read each name, please say if
you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people–or have never heard of them. How about . . . ?

70% Opinion of Joe Biden

Favorable
60%
50% 43%
41%
40%
30% Unfavorable

20%
Never heard of
10% 7%

0%
Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10

Source: Gallup, latest that of July 2010.

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July 2010
Dick Cheney Al Gore

No No
opinion opinion

12% 8%
Favorable
Favorable
36%
44%

Unfavorable Unfavorable

52% 49%

Dick Cheney Al Gore

Fav Unfav Fav Unfav
Mar 2009 30% 63% (lowest rating) Jul 2010 44% 49% (lowest rating)
Jan 2002 67 20 (highest) Aug 2000 64 30 (highest)
Source: Gallup, latest that of July 2010.

The Pill and the Public

In 1936, 63 percent of those surveyed by Elmo Roper for Fortune said they believed in the “teaching and practice of birth
control,” while 23 percent were opposed. Fortune noted that 43 percent of Catholics were in favor and 45 percent
opposed. In 1943, when Fortune returned to the subject, 85 percent of women said knowledge about birth control should
be made available to all married women, while 10 percent said it should not. Women who said it should be available were
then asked if it should be kept from unmarried women, and 70 percent said it should not be.
The birth control pill was introduced 50 years ago in 1960. By 1970, 44 percent of women surveyed by Lou Harris said
they had used the pill, including 60 percent of those under age 30. In questions from 1965 and 1970, large majorities
were opposed to making the pill available to young people.
Many of the small number of questions from the 1960s and 1970s about the pill are about effectiveness and safety. Few
addressed concerns about what the pill might do to sexual mores. Today, 64 percent say the pill is safe and a large majority of
men and women say the pill has been a change for the better for the lives of American women. Around 10 percent said it has
made them worse. Looking forward, far more men than women say that men would use birth control pills if they were available.

Q: Do you . . . ? Q: Do you believe that knowledge about birth control . . .

1936 1943
Believe in the teaching and Women’s response
practice of birth control 63% Should be made available to
Do not 23 married women 85%
Source: Elmo Roper for Fortune, 1936. Should not 10
Source: Elmo Roper for Fortune, 1943.

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Q: Have you used the birth control pill? Q: Do you . . . ?

1970
1970
Women over age 16 Favor making birth control pills
available to teenage girls 15%
Have used it 44%
Oppose 73
By age:
Women under age 30 60% Note: Twenty-four percent of men and 12 percent of women
favored making them available to teenage girls.
30–49 52
Source: The Gallup Organization, February 1970.
50 and older 26
Note: In the 2010 CBS poll, 75 percent of women said they had Q: Do you think . . . ?
used birth control pills.
Source: The Harris Survey, 1970. 1966 2010
Birth control pills can be
Q: The health officer of a university recently gave prescrip- used safely 43% 64%
tions for birth control pills to two unmarried students. Cannot be 26 25
How do you feel . . . ? Note: The 1966 Gallup question also asked whether the pill should
1965 be “made available free to all women of child-bearing age on
—Responses of— relief,” and 62 percent said yes. Sixty-one percent in this survey said
the pill was effective. Fifty-four percent said they would recommend
Men Women
these pills to a woman who did not want more children.
Approve of giving birth Source: The Gallup Organization, 1966; CBS, May 2010.
control pills to women
in college 18% 14%
Disapprove 70 77
Source: The Gallup Organization, October 1965.

Q: Has the development of the birth control pill . . . ?

2010
——Responses of——
National Men Women
Been a change for the better for
the lives of American women 56% 59% 54%
Worse 9 9 8
No difference 28 25 31
Source: CBS, May 2010.

Q: Do you think . . . ?
2010
——Responses of——
National Men Women
Most men would be willing to use
birth control pills if they were
available to men 49% 66% 35%
Would not 40 24 54
Source: CBS, May 2010.

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 Poll Potpourri

Banning the Burqa iPie

Q: Some countries are considering a ban on Muslim Q: If we wanted to update the expression “as American
women wearing full veils that cover all of the face as . . . ,” which of the following would be the best
except the eyes in public places including schools, hos- replacement for “apple pie”?
pitals, and government offices. Would you . . . ? Apple iPod 23%
Approve of banning full veils that NASCAR 23
cover all of the face except the eyes Triple bacon cheeseburgers 21
SUV 10
Responses in
Going to rehab 8
France 82%
Germany 71 Source: CBS/Vanity Fair, June 2010.
Britain 62
Spain 59
United States 28
Note: In France, the question began, “The government is
considering . . .”
Invincible?
Source: Pew Global Attitudes, spring 2010.
Q: If you could do any of the following things without
worrying about its effect on your health, which would
you choose?
Eating whatever you want 43%
Never exercising 17
Negotiating with the Taliban Getting a good tan 10
Having sex without precautions 10
In a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, 51 percent of
Smoking 8
Americans opposed a negotiated settlement between the
Drinking as much alcohol as you want 5
Afghan government and the Taliban that would allow
Source: CBS/Vanity Fair, June 2010.
Taliban members to hold government offices. Thirty-
seven percent in the poll favored a negotiated settlement.
In an ABC News/BBC/ARD poll in Afghanistan in Decem-
ber 2009, 65 percent favored a negotiated settlement.
Q: Do you think the Afghan government should nego-
The More Things Change . . .
tiate a settlement with the Taliban in which they are Q: As I read a list of some news stories covered by
allowed to hold political offices if they agree to stop news organizations this past month, tell me if you hap-
fighting, or do you think the Afghan government pened to follow each news story . . . .
should continue to fight the Taliban and not enter into
these negotiations? June 2006
Favor a negotiated settlement 37% Following actor Mel Gibson’s
Oppose 51 outburst during a drunk driving
arrest very closely 14%
Source: ABC/Washington Post, July 2010.
Source: PSRA/Pew, June 2006.

See you in September!

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