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London, April 1‐2, 2009
Terminal Operator’s Perspective Keynote Speech: “Is the Container Industry Heading Southwards?”
Richard Mitchell, Chief Commercial Officer
APM Terminals
The Hague, Netherlands
Good morning and thank you Paul for that warm introduction earlier – it’s nice to be here in
London. John Fossey and the Containerisation International team – hats off to you for pulling this
event together. Thank you for bringing our industry together at such an important time. And ‐ thank
you everyone in the audience for joining us today. I appreciate everyone making the trip during this
period when all travel and expenses are being cut back. I was worried that if participation had
dropped off too much I might be coming all the way to London just to speak to a group of 20!
Ladies and gentlemen ‐ this morning I want to chat with you on the container terminal industry
and share some perspectives on the container terminal industry. These are tough economic times and
let’s face it we’re all in uncharted waters and the headwinds are hurricane force. So how does our
industry weather the storm and find a safe harbor?
In the next 20 minutes I’d like to discuss:
‐ The industry’s current state of affairs
- Steps the industry is taking
- Our responsibility for the future
OK – the burning question ‐ where do we stand today as an industry in this time of crisis?
No, that’s not a mistake in the projector; the fact of the matter is that our whole industry has
been turned upside down. Every day the news is full of headlines of the economic meltdown. The
world economy from which the liner shipping industry – and the container terminal industry are
dependent has slowed dramatically in volume.
Last week the World Trade Organization released their projections for 2009, predicting a 9%
drop in global exports. Developed nations will be hit hardest. The dramatic plunge in world trade in
the last two months of 2008 was reflected in Far East imports to Western Europe and the US. Global
economic growth dropped to 1.7% in 2008, down from 3.5% the year before, and has been forecast by
the World Trade Organization to fall by between 1 and 2% this year.
Things are not quite so bad among the developing economies, which can have a positive
impact on terminal operators with portfolios well represented in those areas. A look at import and
export trends over the past three years gives us an idea of where terminal operations and expansion
may still have a bright future in the short‐ to medium term.
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According to a recent report from Maritime Strategies International, the share of global
container volumes from the emerging regions of the Indian Subcontinent and Southeast Asia, Latin
America and the Middle East will rise by 8.7% this year, and by another 10.3% in 2010. This is a
positive for the terminal operating industry, as it indicates potential growth areas but does not help
our liner customers faced with major volume declines in the east‐west trades.
Drewry projects the container ship industry could lose $32 billion dollars this year. $32 billion
dollars may be a drop in the bucket – a mere month’s loss to AIG or General Motors or Mr. Bernard
Madoff’s investment portfolio. But for our industry that’s a pretty big hole, and moving fewer
containers at low rates just not makes sense and is not economically viable. Everybody involved in
global logistics, the lines, the terminals, train operators, truckers which cannot adapt will not survive
in their present forms. The challenge for all of us, however, is to not merely survive, but to emerge
stronger when the crisis has finally run its course.
A year ago at this conference, we spoke about the urgent need for more terminal capacity and
how terminal operators were facing 80% utilization levels and how new terminal infrastructure was
not keeping pace with the growth of the container trade which was doubling in volume every ten
years. My suggested topics when the invitation arrived in the third quarter of last year were to speak
on subjects such as shipping lines becoming terminal operators, the environment and terminal
capacity shortages. And while some of those topics are still on everyone’s minds is how to manage the
economic crisis. The current global economic slowdown has changed the world radically…
Port volumes down 20‐30%
11% of global container fleet laid up
Ocean freight rates at unsustainable levels
Customers, suppliers facing bankruptcy
Revenues/profits falling
Every aspect of the industry is affected…
So how bad is it? What can we do, and what are we doing about it is the key. I will share some
of our thoughts and strategies. Is there light at the end of the tunnel? What can we ‐ as an industry ‐
do to come out from this better and stronger than before?
The global recession is the worst economic downturn in at least six decades. The demand for
imported consumer and household goods has plummeted among industrialized nations. This
translates to the shipping community moving significantly fewer containers– most reports indicate an
at least 20% drop overall during this first quarter of the year. This in turn has led to decreased
container terminal activity and pressure on terminal operators to meet new demands by our
customers.
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Our backs are now against the wall. Also, the lack of credit worldwide means trade finance is
limited, and funding for any large terminal or other infrastructure investment project is scarce. New
terminal development is being delayed, postponed or cancelled outright, as are new vessel deliveries
and new build orders. Liner services carrying global trade are being dropped and according to AXS‐
Alphaliner almost 500 vessels are laid up. Ships that are still running also find their charter fees
fractions where they were a year ago is another indication of the problem.
For terminal operators, we’re seeing challenges we haven’t had before. In Shanghai, which is
the world’s second‐busiest container port, you can find nearly 200,000 empty containers waiting for a
better day. When you do the math around the world – there’s a lot of empties sitting idle on
container terminals taking up space.
Slide caption: Balanced geographical presence makes you less vulnerable
Terminal operators clearly face difficult times ahead. Reduced revenue and reduced profits
are no surprise in a market projected to shrink for the first time since containerization began four
decades ago. The reductions are not uniform, however, as consumption in developed nations wanes
while emerging markets are still growing as trade and the containerization of previously break‐bulk
cargoes continues. Geographically balanced portfolios will be able to weather this storm better; those
concentrated in specific regions or ports may find otherwise. Clearly this crisis has a large impact on
the key players in the industry and can significantly affect future results and rankings if not adequately
addressed.
Every port operator has taken measures – allow me to say a few words on what APM Terminals
is doing. First, we were fortunate to have redesigned our organization before the crisis hit. Here’s
what we did: Back in the summer of 2008, we went from 7 global regions down to 4 regions. And, we
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simplified our global structure along two sectors: New Terminals and Existing Terminals; this created
the necessary focus within our organization.
Once we saw the speed and possible long duration of the crisis – we – like many port operators
scaled back capital investments. We have seen many announcements in the press also announcing
investment freezes. We still have 26 port projects in motion but the financial criteria for approval are
much more demanding these days.
But most importantly – and most recently – we prioritized the measures determined as critical
components of necessary structural change under the theme; “Best out of the Crisis”. Our thought
was this – instead of just trying to survive this crisis – we should use it as an opportunity to create a
better, more sustainable business model. Sustainable in terms of profitability, social aspects like
health and safety, citizenship and environmental awareness.
This is not rocket science or a silver bullet but a basic approach and I am sure all of you are taking
measures around the same three priorities we chose.
Earn the Customer
Eliminate Costs
Ensure Performance.
The one closest to my heart is “Earn the Customer” – this is about taking a making the
customer central to everything we do. Creating a customer mindset throughout the organization, from
yard personnel to senior executives – everybody geared to serve customer needs. In the past, much of
the port operators’ focus was simply on operations and building infrastructure. Today’s marketplace is
about fighting for volumes and keeping our customers satisfied. There is heightened customer activity
and competition ‐ as terminals and shipping lines ‐ urgently look for opportunities to optimize
networks and cut costs. We’re working closely together to design solutions that address liner operator
needs for improved string efficiencies, lower costs and better access to markets.
“Eliminate Costs” is a standard these days for any business Reduced or delayed investment is a
major component of this strategy, and one which has been adopted by all major terminal operators.
Cash is King once again, and plans for quick returns on investments have replaced long‐term
development as priorities‐ at least until this crisis is over. Other steps include the tough renegotiation
of all supplier contracts (equipment manufacturers, IT providers, consultants) revisiting concession
agreements, and taking a fresh look at labor costs. Everything is on the table. While investment is
ongoing and to substantial levels, the nature, terms and timing are now more realistic.
“Ensure Performance” sounds like a phrase more associated with a sports car than with an
RTG, but what we mean is that performance at every level must be measured and benchmarked ‐
from the terminal worker to the executive offices. With our people we agree on targets, we monitor
and measure progress, we benchmark and we reward performance. We also deal decisively with non‐
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performance. In the end it is your people – your team ‐ who ensure performance. For that game you
need the best people in the places where they contribute the most. People who play to win instead of
playing to play.
So what is the light at the end of the tunnel? Are there any silver linings in these storm clouds?
Business is cyclical, and difficult as these times may be, the economic rebound will occur. We’re
already seeing economic stimulus packages by many governments – which are designed to help the
global economy rebound and some of this funding will find its way into port infrastructure – in places
where it is needed. But let’s leave that for those other 20 people down the road who are probably
discussing this right now. Building ports take time – here in Europe it can take ten years. This
economic slow period provides an opportunity to plan for the future.
Globalization will remain a dominant force in the 21st century. In many ways this is a good
thing, as global economic development helps to raise the living standards of millions who might have
otherwise never had such opportunities for improved educations, health and lifestyles. In other ways
this linkage brings about new threats as well. We have seen some irresponsible economic behavior
snowball through global markets which has affected all of us in this room, and particularly here in the
City.
Let me finish by saying the container industry will have to play its part in the global economy’s
recovery. We need to use this opportunity to adjust our business models to emerge “Best out of the
Crisis”. We must also be better prepared for the challenges of the future. The priorities I have outlined
today are a good start. Let’s get back to the basics of our business and common sense. It is our
responsibility to create a sustainable model which emphasizes people along with development
projects. It means safety in the work place and health priorities for personnel both within and outside
of the organization. It is a responsibility to instill and pursue an environmental awareness that will be
our legacy to the future of the industry.
What is the future of our industry? That’s what we will be deciding in the months ahead by
the actions we take now. With level heads, prudent financial planning, inspired customer service and a
return to realistic expectations we can all turn out of this crisis for the better, and some of us will turn
out best.
Thank you for your time and attention today – I look forward to seeing you throughout the
conference.