202476: Menon on end game in Sri Lanka

202476, 4/15/2009 15:49,09NEWDELHI743, Embassy New Delhi, CONFIDENTIAL,

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SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2019 TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PHUM, PTER, CE, IN
SUBJECT: FOREIGN SECRETARY MENON ON END GAME IN SRI LANKA

REF: A. NEW DELHI 327 B. COLOMBO

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Peter Burleigh. Reasons: 1.4 (B and D )

1. (C) In an April 15 meeting, Indian Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon

reviewed with Ambassador Burleigh the current state of Indo-Sri Lankan
discussions as the conflict in northern Sri Lanka reaches a conclusion. Sri Lankan
Foreign Minister Bogollagama was in New Delhi April 15 for meetings with Foreign
Ministry officials and had made clear the Sri Lankan government did not want a
UN Envoy involved in resolving the conflict with the LTTE, nor was the GSL
interested now in direct negotiations with the LTTE or in a cease-fire.

2. (C) Menon said the GOI had advised Sri Lanka against rejecting all such
proposals out of hand and had offered a suggestion that the GSL consider offering
an amnesty to all but the hard core of the LTTE. He judged that the GSL may be
""coming around"" to this idea, but said there were clearly questions about what
constituted the core of the organization and what modalities would be used to make
such an offer. Menon said that UNSYG's Chief of Staff Vijay Nambiar planned a
low key visit to Sri Lanka that was primarily focused on the UN humanitarian
operations. Nambiar, who will arrive on April 15, planned to meet with the Sri
Lanka government, Ambassador Blake, the Indian High Commissioner and the
Chinese, according to Menon.

3. (C) Turning to the question of how the GSL could accomodate some form of talks
with the LTTE (likely through an intermediary), Menon acknowledged that the
space for such discussions was small and flagged President Rajapaksa's electoral
considerations as militating against anything that could be viewed as a concession
to the LTTE. ""Quiet diplomacy"" outside of Sri Lanka faced serious challenges and
the Sri Lankan government would have to ""be dragged, kicking and screaming"" to
talks.

4. (C) As for the LTTE, Menon said India's view was that the group was sending
conflicting signals and there was a real question as to who spoke for Prabhakaran.
The GOI judged that some members of the Tamil Diaspora were in touch with those
around Prabhakaran, including his son Charles Anthony, but it was an open
question whether such Diaspora figures could speak authoritatively for him. Menon
also questioned whether Prabhakaran understood the situation he faced. He said
that Prabhakaran alone lacked the ability to prevent Tamil refugees from fleeing the
safe zone, so that indicated to the GOI that there were still those in the LTTE who
shared Prabhakaran's willingness to risk their lives and those of many others in a
final showdown.

5. (C) Menon dismissed the possibility of direct Indian involvement in negotiations

between the LTTE and the Sri Lankan government, conceding that India's own
ongoing elections made such efforts impossible. For now, India's role would be
limited to providing relief supplies through the UN World Food Program. He asked
whether the U.S. was interested in such talks and said India would think about
participation, perhaps with other states under UN auspices, in an effort to obtain a
peaceful conclusion to the conflict.

BURLEIGH "

Keywords: cable202476, The India cables, WikiLeaks, Eelam War IV, LTTE, ethnic
conflict, Tamil civilians, Peter Burleigh, Shivshankar Menon

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