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VZCZCXYZ0001
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #1293/01 1771047

ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 261047Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9999

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 001293

SIPDIS

FOR A/S CARSON AND NSC GAVIN FROM THE AMBASSADOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KE
SUBJECT: THE REFORM AGENDA - KEEPING THE PRESSURE ON KIBAKI
AND ODINGA

Classified By: Ambassador Michael Ranneberger, reasons 1.4 b,d

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Summary
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¶1. (C) The reform agenda will only be implemented if

President Kibaki and PM Odinga exert strong leadership to
make this happen. We must continue to make clear to them the
importance the U.S. at the highest levels attaches to this
(which complements domestic-driven pressure for reform). I
recently met with interlocutors close to Kibaki and Odinga to
press our message. End summary.
-------------------------------
Need To Implement Reform Agenda
-------------------------------
¶2. (C) Following up on the May visit by A/S Carson and NSC
Senior Director Gavin, I recently met with presidency
Permanent Secretary Francis Muthaura and Minister of Lands
James Orengo to urge implementation of the reform agenda.
These meetings were intended to press our messages to
President Kibaki and Prime Minister, since Muthaura and
Orengo are, respectively, among their closest confidantes.
¶3. (C) My message was essentially the same with both.
Following up on your visit, I emphasized our continued and
growing concern about the need to move forward expeditiously
to implement the reform agenda. I pointed out that you would
be returning to Kenya soon, thus highlighting the priority we
attach to the reform agenda. I noted concerns in Congress,
and again emphasized that taking steps now to implement
reforms would create a more positive context for Kenya at the
AGOA forum. I underscored our view that Kibaki and Odinga
share joint responsibility to exert bold and decisive
leadership to carry out the reform agenda. I emphasized the
need for the President and Prime Minister to engage in
dialogue with the Kenyan people, directly and through their
teams, regarding the status of the reform agenda. I stressed
the need for results.

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Muthaura Admits Slow Pace, Blames Coalition
-------------------------------------------

¶4. (C) Muthaura noted that President Kibaki has recently been
more outspoken on reforms, including in his Madaraka Day
address (see septel reporting on Kibaki,s clear statement
against the culture of impunity). Although arguing that
progress is being made, he blamed lack of faster progress on
differences within the coalition that have obscured the
reform agenda. He said that Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga
are scheduled to meet on June 23 (they did meet; reported
septel) to review the state of play on reforms and to work
out next steps. I urged that the coalition management
committee be used to promote coalition coordination. The
committee was established several months ago to promote
coalition coordination, but has met only once. (We know that

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Muthaura does not want the committee to meet because he

cannot control it.)

¶5. (C) I pressed particularly on the status of the

constitutional review process, police reform, and judicial
reform. Muthaura noted that the budget just presented to
Parliament contains substantial funds for the reform process
(septel reports on the budget). Muthaura said that Kibaki
and Odinga are working towards achieving a consensus on key
elements for constitutional revision. Devolution of
authority to local levels has been agreed upon. Regarding
division of executive power, Muthaura claimed the two sides
will agree on &an improved version of what we have now.8
¶6. (C) With respect to establishment of a Special Tribunal,
Muthaura argued that moving too quickly could &even cause
civil war.8 He claimed that Kibaki and Odinga pushed hard
when the bill to establish a Special Tribunal was tabled --
and defeated -- in Parliament. (Note that Kibaki and Odinga
did meet with Parliamentarians and were, extraordinarily,
present in Parliament for the vote, but we have heard from
multiple sources that this was largely window dressing
without a strong behind the scenes push.) Muthaura claimed
that intensive consultations are underway within the
coalition to work out a way to establish a Special Tribunal.
If the Parliament cannot be persuaded to pass the
constitutional amendment bill to establish a Special
Tribunal, Muthaura said, then the Tribunal may be created
using the existing constitution and legal structure. I told
Muthaura that, a constitutional amendment is essential to
guarantee the independence of the Tribunal. It would be
virtually impossible to find a way within existing structures

to establish a Tribunal that would be credible to the Kenyan

people and to the international community.
¶7. (C) I pressed Muthaura on police and judicial reform. On
judicial reform, Muthaura said only that Minister of Justice
Mutula Kilonzo is focused on judicial sector reform.
Muthaura claimed that the Task Force on Police Reform will
yield serious recommendations which will be implemented. I
told him that implementation of police reforms will not be
credible as long as Commissioner Ali remains head of the
police, given Ali,s involvement in extrajudicial killings,
corruption, and other abuses. Police reform should not be
about individuals but rather institutions, Muthaura
responded. After I continued to press regarding Ali,
Muthaura would only say &we,ll implement the task force
recommendations, and then see about Ali.8

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Orengo Pessimistic, Blames Leadership
-------------------------------------
¶8. (C) After I reviewed the state of play along lines similar
to those I employed with Muthaura, Orengo admitted
frustration about the slow movement on the reform agenda. He
said that Prime Minister Odinga must bear substantial
responsibility for this. Orengo made clear his view that
Kibaki and his people do not favor far-reaching reforms, but
at the same time, he said, Odinga has not been forthright in
driving implementation of the reform agenda. Odinga has done
nothing to reorganize his office to make it more effective;
Odinga is a poor manager who does not follow up; and he is
primarily focused on preparing for his presidential run in
2012, Orengo said. Odinga has avoided bold moves because he
is &hostage to his difficult political constituency,8
Orengo said. In essence, Orengo concluded, Odinga wants to
maintain support from the diverse elements of his Orange
Democratic Movement coalition, and that means he has pulled
his punches on issues like the Special Tribunal.

¶9. (C) Orengo said that, given the lack of leadership by both
Kibaki and Odinga, he does not believe that the reform
process will move ahead quickly ) if at all. Orengo said
that the new draft national land policy may be discussed in
the Cabinet on June 25 but, given the sensitive issues
involved, he was not optimistic it would be implemented
quickly.

¶10. (C) Just as I urged Muthaura to brief Kibaki on our

conversation (which he agreed to do), I urged Orengo to have

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a heart-to-heart discussion with Odinga. Orengo said that he

would do this, and commented that the concerns I expressed
were valid. Odinga needs to be shaken out of his
complacency, Orengo commented. I told Orengo that it is not
too late for Odinga to embrace the reform agenda and push
hard for its implementation. We want to help him be
successful as Prime Minister, because if he fails then the
coalition will fail and the historic opportunity to bring
about fundamental reform will be lost, with an increased
likelihood for future instability.

¶11. (C) Comment: We must continue to press Kibaki and Odinga

hard to implement the reform agenda. They need to know that
we see them as having shared responsibility, thus
forestalling their attempts to play the blame game while the
reform agenda languishes. Implementation will not happen
without their decisive leadership. Both men remain very
sensitive to U.S. concerns and pressure. End Comment.
RANNEBERGER

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