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Nearly one in five people living in the Middle East the average years of education increases and marriage
and North Africa (MENA) region is between the is delayed, the transition to adulthood extends over a
ages of 15 and 24—the age group defined as longer period of time, making adolescence an
“youth.”1 The current number of youth in the increasingly important stage for policy attention.
region is unprecedented: nearly 95 million in 2005. Despite a wealth of oil resources and major
The extent to which this large group of young peo- improvements in health and education over the past
ple will become healthy and productive members of few decades, this region’s political, social, and eco-
their societies depends on how well governments nomic systems have not evolved in a way that effec-
and civil societies invest in social, economic, and tively meets the changing needs of its rapidly
political institutions that meet the current needs of growing young population. This policy brief gives
young people. an overview of demographic trends among youth
Ages 15 to 24 represent a period in life when and the implications of these trends for human and
one makes the transition from the dependence of economic development in the MENA region.
childhood to the independence of adulthood—a
period filled with enthusiasm, dreams, and ambi- The Youth Bulge
tions. It is also a period during which a number of Although mortality in the MENA region began to
social, economic, biological, and demographic events decline in the late 19th and early 20th centuries,
occur that set the stage for adult life, such as educa- the decline in fertility (births per woman) did not
tion, marriage, and entrance into the job market. As occur until the mid-1960s and early to mid-
1970s. As a result, the second half of the 20th cen-
Figure 1 tury witnessed explosive population growth
Population Growth in MENA by Age Group, 1950-2050 throughout the region as births far outnumbered
deaths (see Figure 1). The region’s growth rate
reached a peak of 3 percent a year around 1980.
Currently, the population of MENA is growing at
about 2 percent a year, still higher than the world
average. The world as a whole reached its peak of
population growth of 2 percent a year in the mid-
1960s and is currently growing at 1.2 percent a
year.2
The combination of a significant decline in
child mortality and the relatively slow onset of fer-
tility decline led first to an increase in the propor-
tion of children under 15, and then to an increase
in the proportion of young people ages 15 to 24, as
the proportion of children fell after fertility began
to decline (see Figure 2, page 2). The increase in
the proportion of 15-to-24-year-olds in the total
population, referred to as the “youth bulge,” com-
bined with the rapid growth in the overall popula-
tion, has resulted in the most rapid growth in the
number of young people in the region’s history.
S O U R C E : United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (New York:
MENA countries, however, differ in the pace
UN, 2005).
of their fertility declines, and where they are now
in the transition from high to low fertility. The
Figure 2
youth bulge is more pronounced in countries
Population Distribution in MENA by Age Group, 1950-2050 where the onset of fertility decline occurred later
and the decline was sharper (see table). It is most
noticeable in Iran, where fertility declined sharply
during the 1990s. As a result, 25 percent of Iran’s
population was between the ages of 15 and 24 in
2005. In 2005, the share of the youth population
in MENA countries ranged from 25 percent in
Iran to around 15 percent in Bahrain, Kuwait, and
Qatar. Fertility is generally the main factor deter-
mining the age composition of MENA’s popula-
tions and their population growth. But in the
labor-receiving Gulf states, such as Bahrain,
Kuwait, and Qatar, international migration also
plays an important role, as large numbers of people
migrate to these states for work.
Over the next two decades, the youth popula-
tions in Iraq, Yemen, and the Palestinian
Territories—where current levels of fertility are the
highest in the region—will experience the fastest
S O U R C E : United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (New York: growth. In these countries, well over 40 percent of
UN, 2005). their populations are currently under 15 years of
age. On average, an Iraqi woman gives birth to 4.8
children in her lifetime, while Palestinian and
Yemeni women give birth to more than five chil-
dren. As a result, 15-to-24-year-olds will still consti-
Figure 3 tute around 20 percent of the population in these
Percent Change in Size of Youth Population in Selected countries in 2025. The number of youth in Iraq is
Countries in MENA, 2005-2025 projected to increase by nearly 3 million—from 5.8
million in 2005 to 8.6 million in 2025. And the
number of Palestinian youth will increase from 0.7
million to 1.3 million—more than an 80 percent
increase. The number of youth in Yemen will also
increase by more than 3 million during this same
period, a 69 percent increase (see Figure 3).
On the other hand, women in Lebanon, Iran,
Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey, and the United Arab
Emirates give birth to no more than 2.5 children on
average today. By 2025, the share of youth in Iran,
Lebanon, and Tunisia is expected to drop to 15 per-
cent or less. The rate of growth in the youth popu-
lation in the region as a whole will slow in the next
two decades as these and other countries experience
fertility decline. The overall share of youth in
MENA’s population is expected to decline to 17
*Palestine includes the Arab population of the West Bank and Gaza. percent by 2025—although the number of 15-to-
S O U R C E : United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (New York:
UN, 2005).
24-year-olds is still expected to increase by more
than 7 million for the region as a whole.
Selected Demographic and Socioeconomic Indicators for Youth Ages 15-24 in MENA
Youth as % of
Working Age Unemployment
Youth Population (1000s) Youth as % of Total Population Population Rate Among Youth (%)
*Palestine includes the Arab population of the West Bank and Gaza.
— Data not available.
N O T E : Years for data on youth unemployment: Algeria (2004), Bahrain (2001), Egypt (2002), Iran (2005), Jordan (2005), Kuwait (1995), Lebanon (1997),
Morocco (2003), Palestine (2004), Qatar (2004), Saudi Arabia (2002), Syria (2003), Tunisia (2005), Turkey (2005), United Arab Emirates (1995), Yemen
(2003).
S O U R C E S : United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision; ESCWA, Survey of Economic and Social Developments in the ESCWA Region 2003-
2004; International Labour Organization (ILO), Global Employment Trends 2004; ILO, LABORSTA (2006); ILO, Key Indicators of the Labor Market 2006;
Jordan DOS website (2006); Republic of Yemen, Statistical Year Book 2003 (June 2004); and CAPMAS, Annual Bulletin of Labour Force Sample Survey in
A.R.E 2004 (August 2005).
Education
Over the last few decades, school enrollments have
risen markedly throughout the region. Primary edu-
cation is nearly universal in most countries and the
gap between boys and girls’ enrollments in second-
ary school has disappeared in many countries.
Higher education has grown as well. Overall, the
educational attainments in MENA today resemble
those of East Asia in the early 1980s, with a broad
base of primary and secondary graduates. MENA
countries can successfully follow East Asia’s progress
in education by investing now in secondary educa-
tion, reducing dropout rates, and investing appro-
priately in higher education.
S O U R C E : United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (New York:
Due to continued fertility decline and the slow-
UN, 2005).
er rate of growth of the school-age population, gov-
ernments face less pressure to increase the number
young people as they move into adulthood. of seats in primary schools, and, with some time
Educational systems need to accommodate the rap- lag, secondary schools, and therefore have an oppor-
idly growing student population; labor markets tunity to focus on improving the quality of school-
need to expand to provide additional jobs; housing ing and expanding higher education. Such a
markets must meet the growing housing demand of strategy is more feasible in countries where primary
couples attempting to marry; and health systems school enrollment is already universal, such as in
must adapt to the needs of young people—a con- Algeria, Syria, and Tunisia.
stituency they have served relatively little. (Another Unfortunately, illiteracy and school dropout
policy brief in this series addresses young people’s rates remain unacceptably high in pockets of popu-
sexual and reproductive health. See page 8.) lations in some countries in the region. The largest
numbers of illiterate young people are found in
The Changing Needs of Youth Egypt, Iraq, and Yemen, who together constitute
The changing needs of youth in MENA are about three-quarters of the nearly 10 million illiter-
affected by what happens inside and outside the ate youth in the region—with girls representing
region. The global economy—with its power to over two-thirds of that group. Girls who are illiter-
reach across national boundaries and into the ate or have little schooling generally come from
smallest communities—has brought a new poor communities and tend to marry and begin
dimension that profoundly affects the life of childbearing at a young age. Early marriage cuts
young people in the region. Today, satellite dishes short girls’ formal education and often traps them
on rooftops bringing worldwide broadcasts into in a vicious cycle of low education, high fertility,
people’s homes are a common feature of MENA’s and poverty.
urban landscapes and are rapidly expanding to Programs that keep disadvantaged girls in
rural areas. Internet use is also growing fast and school, or promote their return to school, and teach
quickly changing the lives of youth—further them literacy and life skills are important for reduc-
widening the generation gap between young peo- ing girls’ social isolation and promoting broader