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WMO Bulletin
Disaster risk reduction,
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sustainable development
165
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Geneva, Switzerland
31 August–4 September 2009
Geneva International Conference Centre
In this issue
There is little doubt now that climate economic benefits. There is an urgent response strategies to changes in
change has serious development need to focus on helping climate- climate. Thanks to WCRP efforts, it is
impacts. Factoring climate change vulnerable countries and communities now possible for climate scientists to
into the development process is deal with this issue effectively. monitor, simulate and project global
not only a fundamental necessity in climate so that climate information can
terms of guiding the international World Climate Conference-3 (WCC‑3) be used for governance in decision-
development policy framework takes place in Geneva, from 31 August making and in support of a wide range
but also an invaluable opportunity to 4 September 2009 on the theme of practical applications.
to reappraise the most pressing “Better climate information for a better
needs of a highly inequitable global future” to address these concerns. Climate science today provides
society, with greatly differing social, seasonal-to-interannual predictions
environmental and economic levels Zillman traces the histor y of on various climatic parameters.
of development. ac tivities that have resulted in Short- and medium-range climate
greater awareness, both at political predictions are essential for adapting
The international debate on climate and scientific level, about climate to climate variations and mitigating
change has focused largely on change. The article links various their impacts. The Global Framework
the c ommitment— or failure to events over the past 50 years that for Climate Services that is likely to
commit—to emissions reductions. have led to increasing cooperation emerge from WCC-3 would form
This emphasis omits the pressing among countries and international the foundation for science-based
need to focus on the costs of present institutions that, in turn, has led to climate information at different time-
and future climate variability and international arrangements such scales, thereby building the ability
its adverse impacts on vulnerable as the Intergovernmental Panel on of countries to adapt to evolving
groups and climate -sensitive Climate Change assessments and the climate phenomena more effectively.
ecosystems. Both technological United Nations Framework Convention The Framework would provide such
equity and efficiency (mitigation) on Climate Change negotiation information at different scales from
and the capacity of communities process. It looks at the way climate global to local in user-friendly format
to prepare themselves for climate science and international cooperation and fulfil the needs of decision-making
change (adaptation) are fundamental could further help address climate processes in various sectors.
to advancing international climate challenges.
change negotiations. The frequency and intensit y of
Busalacchi and Asrar point out major large-scale disasters related
It is encouraging that recent trends that the World Climate Research to climatic events such as fires, heat
in negotiations incorporate concerns Programme (WCRP) was established waves, droughts, landslides, floods
for actions in support of adaptation in 1980 by WMO and partners to and outbreaks of disease will increase.
to climate variability. Adaptation determine the predic tabilit y of Disaster prevention, preparedness,
to current climate variability would climate and to determine the effect response and recovery should become
address not only present situations of human activities on climate. an even greater priority for WMO
but also the challenges of future These fundamental objectives have Members. Rapid response capacities
climate change in terms of building laid the groundwork for society’s to climate change would need to be
capacity. Early action will bring clear present adaptation and mitigation accompanied by a strategy for disaster
Introduction well WMO and its predecessor and but on a measure of historical insight
partner organizations have worked into the issues explored, challenges
The third WMO (World Meteorological together to provide the framework for met and lessons learned in putting
Organization ) - convened World international cooperation on climate the present international institutional
Climate Conference, which will be matters since the establishment of arrangements in place. While there
held in Geneva from 31 August to the International Meteorological is not space, here, to retrace the
4 September 2009, should be viewed Organization (IMO) in 1873. The fascinating history of international
both as an end and as a beginning. As non-governmental IMO provided climate science and services in any
an end, it represents the culmination essential international coordination detail, it may be of interest, as a
of some 30 years of remarkable and standardization of climatological starting point, to identify a few of
p r o g r e s s in c li m a t e r e s e a r c h, practices for more than 70 years, the highlights of the past 50 years
monitoring, applications and impact especially, since 1929, through and especially of the 30 years since
assessment under the World Climate its Commission for Climatology, the establishment of the World
Programme, which was established which was re-established as an Climate Programme in 1979. Figure 1
in the wake of the First World Climate intergovernmental body by WMO provides a schematic, albeit greatly
Conference in 1979 and reconstituted, in 1951 and has been maintained, simplified, summary of the milestones
underpinned and refocused following albeit with a brief change of name to in the emergence of climate as an
the Second World Climate Conference enhance its focus on applications, to international scientific and political
in 1990. It also seems likely to mark the present day. Many of the National issue since the 1950s.
the beginning of a new and more Meteorological Services (NMSs) of
integrated approach to the application WMO’s now 188 Member States and
of climate science to societal needs Territories owe their origins not so
through the establishment of a much to their more publicly visible Origin of the
new global framework for climate role in daily weather forecasting as to climate issue
services which will focus powerful their national responsibility for long-
new scientific capabilities on the term observation, description and While climatology has always been
formidable social, economic and monitoring of climate. recognized as an important branch
environmental challenges of living of the s cienc e and pra c tic e of
with the large natural variability of In planning for a new global frame meteorology (Landsberg, 1945) and the
climate and mitigating and adapting work for climate service provision basic physics of greenhouse warming
to human-induced climate change. through World Climate Conference-3 has been understood for more than a
(WCC‑3), it will be critically important century (Houghton, 2009), the present
It is surprisingly little understood to focus the established and emerging global concern with climate issues
how comprehensively and how scientific capabilities for climate really dates from the convergence of
prediction on the burgeoning societal five important scientific, technological
* Chairman of the International Organizing needs of a world now concerned with and geopolitical developments of the
Committee for World Climate Conference‑3; climate issues as never before. But it 1950s:
former President of WMO (1995-2003)
and former President of the International will also be important that the new
Council of Academies of Engineering and framework be based not just on a • Post-World War II advances
Technological Sciences (2005) recognition of what is already in place in basic atmospheric science
WWW Observation
IGY
1967 GCOS
Figure 1 — The emergence of climate as an international scientific and policy issue: the five major scientific, technological and
geopolitical developments on the left converged to inspire UN General Assembly (UNGA) Resolution 1721 (XVI) which triggered the
establishment of the WMO World Weather Watch (WWW) and the WMO-ICSU Global Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP) and,
later and less directly, the convening of the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment (UNCHE). The 1974-1977 WMO
EC (Executive Committee) Panel of Experts on Climate Change, set up at the request of the sixth special session of the UNGA, triggered
the convening of the 1979 World Climate Conference (WCC-1) and the establishment of the four-component World Climate Programme
(WCP), including the WMO-ICSU World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The 1987 report of the World Commission on
Environment and Development (WCED), the 1988 Toronto Conference and the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) shaped the agenda of the 1990 Second World Climate Conference (WCC-2), which led to the establishment
of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the negotiation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The chart also depicts the proposed evolution of the service-oriented components of the WCP into a more integrated World Climate
Services System (WCSS), built on GCOS and WCRP, to produce a new Global Framework for Climate Services (see Figure 5).
that led to greatly increased • The willingness of countries, for Science (ICSU) to collaborate
understanding of the mechanisms even in the developing Cold War in developing the new scientific
of the large-scale circulation of environment, to use the institutions and technological oppor tunities
the atmosphere; of the United Nations System for monitoring, predic ting and
for cooperation in addressing eventually controlling, weather
• Initiation of a number of new important global problems; and climate and triggered the twin
geophysical obser vations birth of the WMO World Weather
( e s p e c iall y t h e M auna L o a which shaped the transition of Watch and the WMO/ICSU Global
measurements of atmospheric climatology from a descriptive to a Atmospheric Research Programme
carbon dioxide) during the 1957 physical science (Flohn, 1970) and (GARP). The World Weather Watch
International Geophysical Year; opened up the prospect of diagnostic was aimed at providing the basic
and predictive modelling of the global global infrastructure for supporting
• Recognition of the potential climate system (Bolin, 2007). operational weather forecasting
meteorological obser ving and for describing and monitoring
capabilities of Ear th-orbiting These influences were brought climate, while GARP was focused
satellites; together in a 1961 United Nations on the dual objectives of improved
General Assembly Resolution weather forecasting and a scientific
• The advent of digital computers; which called on WMO and the non- basis for climate prediction (Davies,
and governmental International Council 1990).
Figure 2 — The opening of the World Climate Conference in February 1979. From the left: R. Schneider, Deputy Secretary-General of
WMO; F. Mayor, Deputy Director-General of UNESCO; R.W. Phillips, Deputy Director-General of FAO; M.K. Tolba, Executive Director of
UNEP; H. Mahler, Director-General of WHO; K.K.S. Dadzie, Director-General for Development and International Economic Cooperation
of the United Nations; D.A. Davies, Secretary-General of WMO; R.M. White, Conference Chairman; Ju.A. Izrael, Acting First Vice-
President of WMO; E.K. Fedorov; Sir John Kendrew, Secretary-General of ICSU; O. Vasiliev, Deputy Director of IIASA; and H. Taba,
Director, Programme Planning and UN Affairs in the WMO Secretariat
Figure 3 — The Secretary-General of WMO, G.O.P. Obasi, addressing the opening of the Eleventh World Meteorological
ministerial sessions of the Second World Climate Conference in the Palais des Nations, Congress (May 1991) responded to
Geneva, on 6 November 1990. Behind him (left to right) are the Hon. E. Fenech-Adami, the recommendations of WCC-2 by
Prime Minister of Malta; the Rt Hon. M. Thatcher, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom; broadening and restructuring the
HM King Hussein I of Jordan; Federal Councillor A. Köller, President of the Swiss WCP, establishing a broadly based
Confederation; M. Rocard, Prime Minister of France; and the Rt Hon. B. Paeniu, Prime Coordinating Commit tee for the
Minister of Tuvalu. World Climate Programme (CCWCP),
ins ti tu tionalizing the e s s ential
underpinning role of GCOS and
negotiation of the UNFCCC and a Memorandum of Understanding foreshadowing an intergovernmental
invited the forthcoming Eleventh was in place between WMO, IOC, meeting to review the coordination
World Meteorological Congress UNEP and ICSU for the establishment arrangements and identify a resourcing
to strengthen the WCP research of GCOS. A Joint Planning Office was strategy for both WCP and GCOS.
and monitoring programmes in established at WMO Headquarters
consultation with UNESCO, UNEP, in Geneva, a Joint Scientific and The four restructured components of
FAO, I C SU an d o t h e r r e l evan t Technical Committee was appointed the WCP became:
international organizations. and, by mid-1995, a comprehensive
GCOS plan had been finalized (GCOS, • The World Climate Data
1995). and Monitoring Programme
Establishment of the Global (WCDMP):
Climate Observing System The fundamental design concept for
GCOS was that it be built as a system • The World Climate Applications
In the light of the WCC-2 Conference of climate relevant components of and Ser vices Programme
Statement and Declaration, the then the established observing systems (WCASP);
Chairman of the Joint Scientific based on the WMO Global Observing
Committee (JSC) for the WCRP moved System and Global Atmosphere • T h e Wo r l d C li m a t e I m p a c t
immediately to convene a meeting of Watch for the atmosphere and A s s e s s m e n t an d Re s p o n s e
experts to formulate a prospectus for the then emerging Global Ocean Strategies Programme (WCIRP);
the Global Climate Observing System. Observing System (GOOS) and Global and
The meeting was hosted by the UK Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS)
Meteorological Office at Winchester which were also co-sponsored by • The World Climate Research
in January 1991 (Winchester Group, several of the co-sponsors of WCC- Programme (WCRP).
1991), the concept and sponsorship 2. The basic purpose of GCOS was
arrangements were elaborated and to provide observational support for with the former Advisory Committee
agreed by the governing bodies of the all components of the WCP, the IPCC on the World Climate Applications
proposed sponsors and, by early 1992, and the UNFCCC. and Data Programmes (ACCAD )
UNEP UNFCCC
IOC
COP
GCOS
Figure 4 — Organizational structure and sponsorship arrangements for the World Climate Programme (WCP) following the Second
World Climate Conference, showing also the underpinning role of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the link to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the UN Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) of the
Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
A s par t of it s follow- up to the The convening of a third World • The March 2007 Madrid
Intergovernmental Meeting, Eleventh Climate Conference was, however, C on f e r e n c e on S e c ur e an d
World Meteorological Congress strongly opposed by some countries Sustainable Living: Social and
(1995) authorized the establishment and the Congress decided, instead, Economic Benefits of Weather,
of an Interagency Committee for simply to request the Executive Climate and Water Ser vices
the Climate Agenda (IACCA), which Council to keep the matter under (WMO, 2009(b));
ser ved as the peak coordination consideration.
mechanism for GCOS, IPCC, WCP and and the information ne eds for
other international climate-related adaptation have been comprehensively
programmes and activities through The growing emphasis identified through a series of initiatives
the remainder of the 1990s. The under the Nairobi Work Programme
development of detailed proposals
on adaptation of the UNFCCC.
for resourcing GCOS, WCP and The
Climate Agenda, was, however, Under the influence of the 2001 Third
largely lef t in abeyance, pending Assessment Report of the IPCC, the Planning for WCC-3
agreement on a new framework 2002 Johannesburg World Summit
for international coordination of on Sustainable Development and In the light of the growing
climate activities and consideration the growing realization in UNFCCC international pressure for more
of proposals for the organization of a and other circles that the global detailed and more reliable climate
third World Climate Conference. challenge of climate change would predic tion and information and
Figure 5 — The proposed new Global Framework for Climate Services consisting
of a strengthened Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and World Climate Conclusion
Research Programme (WCRP) supporting closely coupled Information and Application
components of a World Climate Services System to complement and support the climate The new global framework for climate
change assessment and policy roles of the IPCC and UNFCCC in achieving mitigation of, services proposed as the significant
and adaptation to, climate change concrete outcome from WCC-3 is well
placed to build on the remarkable
scientific progress of the past 50 years
nearly a decade af ter the need and change in both developed and and the solid institutional foundation
wa s f ir s t id e n ti f ie d w i thin the developing countries”. provided by the international climate
WMO community, Fifteenth World observation, research and assessment
Meteorological Congress (2007) mechanisms put in place by WMO
endorsed the organization of World and its partner organizations over
Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3), by The UN System the 30 years since the historic First
late October 2009, around the theme delivering as one World Climate Conference of February
“Climate prediction for decision- 1979.
making, focusing on seasonal to Following the December 2007 UNFCCC
interannual time scales, taking into adoption of the Bali Action Plan and a
account multi-decadal prediction”. series of UN General Assembly and
other resolutions, the UN Secretary- References
At the request of Congress and the General, through the UN Chief Boldirev, V., 1991: Modern data and
Executive Council, the Secretary- Executives Board and its High-Level applications: World Climate
Data Programme, World Climate
General of WMO es tablished a Committee on Programmes initiated Applications Programme. Proceed
WCC-3 International Organizing a process to ensure a coherent and ings of the Second World Climate
Committee (WIOC) of some 24 members coordinated UN System response to Conference. Cambridge University
Press, 157-161.
supported by representatives of 27 co- the challenge of climate variability
sponsoring and partner organizations. and change. In the first instance, this Bolin B., B.R. Döös, J. Jager and
The Committee met in February and involved the identification of five focus R.A. Warwick (Eds) 1986: The
September 2008 and March 2009 areas (adaptation, capacity-building, Greenhouse Effect, Climate Change
and Ecosystems. SCOPE 29.
to develop the concept and guide finance, reducing emissions from Chichester, John Wiley.
the planning, for WCC-3 with a deforestation and degradation, and
Conference vision for “an international technology transfer) and four cross Bolin, B., 1991: The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
framework for climate ser vices cutting areas of UN System action, Proceedings of the Second World
that links science-based climate one of which, to be co-convened by Climate Conference. Cambridge
predictions and information with WMO and UNESCO, was identified University Press, 19-21.
the management of climate-related as “science, assessment, monitoring
Calder, N., 1974: The Weather Machine
risks and opportunities in support a n d e a r l y w a r n i n g” ( “c l i m a t e and the Threat of Ice. London, British
of adaptation to climate variability knowledge”). Broadcasting Corporation.
Jäger, J. and H.L. Ferguson (Eds), 1991: WMO, 1991: Eleventh World
Climate Change: Science, Impacts Meteorological Congress. Abridged
and Policy. Proceedings of the Final Report with Resolutions.
Second World Climate Conference. Geneva.
Cambridge University Press.
WMO, 1993: The Climate Agenda:
L andsberg, H., 1945: Climatology. In: Intergovernmental Meeting on the
Handbook of Meteorology. F.A. Berry, World Climate Programme. The
E. Bollay and N.R. Beers (Eds), Meeting Statement and Report.
London, McGraw Hill. Geneva, 14-16 April 1993.
In the wake of World War II, owing T h e Wo r l d C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and
to advances in our observing and Programme (WCRP) was established the United Nations programme on
understanding of the dynamics of in 1980 under the joint sponsorship assessment of atmospheric ozone
the atmospheric circulation, together of W MO and the Interna tional depletion/recovery.
with nascent digital computing and Council for Science (ICSU) and,
telecommunication technologies, since 1993, the Intergovernmental
Past achievements
the new field of numerical weather Oceanographic Commission (IOC)
prediction was ushered in. The of UNESCO. The main objectives Modern climate science began with
societal benefit of these scientific for WCRP since its inception are, the creation of physically based
d i s c ove r i e s an d te c hn o lo gi c al to determine the predictability of numerical models of atmospheric
innovations is manifest in present- climate and to determine the effect and oceanic circulations in the 1950s
day routine daily and weekly weather of human activities on climate. These and 1960s. In the 1960s and 1970s,
predictions. fundamental objectives have laid the observations from new Earth-orbiting
groundwork for present society’s satellites, ostensibly in support of
Today, as a result of advances in adaptation and mitigation response weather prediction, began providing
climate science during the past strategies to changes in climate. an unprecedented perspective of the
30 years, we are now seeing major Thanks to WCRP efforts, it is now Earth as an interconnected system
advances in our ability to predict possible for climate scientists to of atmosphere, oceans, continents
seasonal-to-interannual variability monitor, simulate and project global and life and temporal changes in this
in Earth’s climate and project climate climate so that climate information can system much longer than that of day-
change on centennial timescales for be used for governance, in decision- to-day weather phenomena.
major regions of the world. Looking making and in support of a wide range
to the future, we find ourselves of practical applications. This first global perspective of the
at the beginning of a new era of Earth’s atmospheric circulation and
predicting Earth System behaviour Over these 30 years, new disciplines climate system enabled global climate
with tremendous potential to serve of climate s cience have arisen studies and identified the important
global society’s need for climate and that transcend traditional fields of physical climate system processes.
environmental information from days atmosphere, ocean and land sciences The idea of an international research
to seasons, years to decades and and have led to routine seasonal-to- programme on climate change
longer. Coordination and collaboration interannual climate predictions and came into being at Eighth World
among the nations around the world longer-term climate projections. In Meteorological Congress in May
have been and will continue to be a parallel with such studies of natural 1979, which formally established
hallmark of such progress. fluctuations of the coupled climate WCRP, inclusive of a climate research
system, the WCRP development component (to be jointly managed by
of coupled climate models, driven WMO and ICSU), as well as activities
by changes in the radiative forcing in gathering, managing and applying
1 D i r e c t o r, E a r t h S y s t e m S c i e n c e of gr e e nhou s e - ga s e mi s s ion s , climate data and assessment of the
Interdisciplinary Center, University of
Maryland, College Park, USA
has provided the climate change potential impacts of climate change
2 Director, World Climate Research Pro- projections that have underpinned the (to be managed by the United Nations
gramme, WMO assessments of the Intergovernmental Environment Programme (UNEP)).
and upper-ocean thermal structure Oct. Jan. Apr. July Oct. Jan. Apr. July Oct. Jan. Apr.
1997 1998 1999
in the tropical Pacific Ocean were Source: ECMWF
provided in real-time by the Tropical
Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array. These Figure 1 — Demonstration of successful ENSO forecasts such as displayed here for
mooring observations have since been the 1997/1998 event have been possible through intensive research efforts in the field
sustained in the Pacific and extended of seasonal prediction. The physical basis for understanding and predicting El Niño
to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, thus temperature signals and associated changes in the global atmospheric circulation from
building a solid foundation for today’s a season to a year in advance was laid during the WCRP project on Tropical Ocean and
ocean observing system. Global Atmosphere (TOGA, 1985-1994).
Range of projections
rise, Figure 4), and CliC focuses on
identifying patterns and rates of
0 Pre-1980 ozone amounts
change in cryospheric parameters. CliC
decreasing ozone
0.6 Model
projections
the more discipline-oriented activities.
0.00
These models are the fundamental
1990 1995 2000 2005
Year tool for understanding and predicting
0.4
na tural c lima te varia tions and
providing reliable predictions of
natural and anthropogenic climate
0.2
change. Models also provide an
e s s e n t ial m e an s o f ex p l oi t in g
and synthesizing, in a synergistic
0.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 manner, all relevant atmospheric,
Year
oceanographic, cryospheric and land-
Figure 4 — The climate knowledge and understanding we gain from research has surface data collected in WCRP and
to be made available to decision-makers in an open and timely manner in order to other programmes. The Working
become beneficial to human society and the environment. For example, vulnerability Group on Numerical Experimentation
assessments of coastal settlements and low-lying areas such as Pacific Islands and (WGNE), jointly sponsored by WCRP
other island States prone to a rising sea level are based on the reconstructed and and the W MO Commis sion for
projected sea-level rise for the 21st century (m). A new WCRP activity within the Climate Atmospheric Sciences (CAS), leads
and Cryosphere (CliC) project now focuses on assessing the contribution of ice caps and the development of atmospheric
glaciers on global sea level. Image source: modified and updated by J. Church, based on models for both climate studies and
Church et al. 2001 in IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. numerical weather prediction.
Anomaly (°C)
beyond the traditional atmospheric
science disciplines. The development
of climate prediction and ultimately 0.0
environmental prediction is not
Confidence (%)
a r o te ex te n s ion of numeri c al
weather prediction. For example, Mt Pinatubo 10 50 90
−0.5
the scientific disciplines required
to suppor t weather, climate and 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
environmental prediction across
these timescales span meteorology,
atmospheric chemistry, hydrology, Figure 5 — Global average of annual-mean Earth surface temperature anomaly (1979-
o c eanography and marine and 2001) forecast by the UK Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) beginning
terrestrial ecosystems. in June 2005. The confidence interval (red shading) is diagnosed from the standard
deviation of the DePreSys ensemble mean (white curve). The blue curve is an equivalent
While atmospheric nowcasting and forecast with no initialization with observations. The black curve is the hindcasts
very short-range weather forecasting beginning from June 1985 together with observations. Source: Smith et al. (2008,
are primarily initial value problems, Science 317)
extension to short-, medium- and
extended-range weather forecasting One of WCRP’s major challenges is to of data-assimilation schemes in
begins to bring in the coupling of land- determine the limits to predictability Earth system models and the use
surface processes and the role of soil on the decadal timescale. Within the of Earth system models for shorter-
moisture feedback and other surface- concept of a unified suite of forecasts, range prediction, e.g. seasonal. For
atmosphere processes. Long-range decadal prediction bridges the gap example, seasonal predictions can
forecasting through seasonal climate between predicting seasonal-to- be used to calibrate probabilistic
forecasting involves atmosphere- interannual climate variability and climate-change projections in a
ocean coupling with the initial change and the externally forced seamless prediction system. Hence,
conditions of the memory inherent climate change projections over there is common ground over which
in the upper ocean leading to longer very long periods, i.e. a century. to base a cooperation of the two
lead-time predictive skill. The climate-change community is communities in order to develop
typically focused on the problem seamless predictions.
D e c a d a l c li m a t e p r e d i c t i o n i s of estimating anthropogenically
determined by both initial values induced climate change on centennial Over the past 20 years, the link
and boundar y-value forcing. On timescales. For this community, the bet ween WCRP obser vational
these timescales, deeper oceanic provision of accurate initial conditions and modelling ef for ts has been
information and changes to radiative is not a major concern, since the level atmospheric reanalyses that have
forcing from greenhouse gases and of predictability of the first kind is greatly improved our ability to analyse
aerosols play determinant roles. believed to be small on centur y the past climate variability. The Third
When considering interdecadal to timescales. WCRP International Conference on
centennial climate projections, not Reanalysis was held in Tokyo from
only do future concentrations of By contrast, although the numerical 28 January to 1 February 2008 to
greenhouse gases need to be taken weather prediction and seasonal showcase results of progress in
into account, but also changes in land forecas t communit y have well- reanalysis products and research
cover/dynamic vegetation and carbon developed data-assimilation schemes and to discuss future goals and
sequestration governed by both to determine initial conditions, the developments. The climate record is
marine and terrestrial ecosystems. In models do not incorporate many of made up of analyses of observations
addition, regionally specific predictive the cryospheric and biogeochemical taken for many other purposes,
information will be required across processes believed to be important such as weather forecasting in the
these timescales for environmental on timescales of centuries. A focus on atmosphere or core oceanographic
parameters such as air and water decadal prediction by the two groups research. It is now recognized that
quality. may help expedite the development global climate can be understood only
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develop improved downscaling
techniques and to provide feedback
to the global climate modelling Figure 7 — WCRP and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme have joined
community. A specific objective will expertise to advance climate model development and, hence, prediction capabilities.
be to produce improved multi-model Future climate modelling activities include a set of experiments that “compare”
RCD-based high-resolution climate existing climate models and evaluate their strengths and weaknesses and improve
information over regions worldwide climate simulations, using a defined suite of emission scenarios. By incorporating the
for input to impact/adaptation work global carbon cycle, more complex Earth system models are also being tested for their
and to the IPCC Fifth Assessment response to different forcings. Within WCRP, the Working Group on Coupled Modelling
Report (AR5). This would promote leads the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models used for climate
greater interactions between climate studies on longer timescales. Image source: Taylor et al (2008)
Introduction
The climate challenge is enormous
and requires a comprehensive and
coordinated response from the world World Climate Conference-3
community. In the tradition of the two Better climate information for
earlier World Climate Conferences,
World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-
a better future
3) is expected to create a mechanism
to provide “better climate information
for a better future”. Considerable work
has already been done in formulating
a Global Framework for Climate
Services (GFCS) to achieve exactly www.wmo.int/wcc3
this.
Geneva, Switzerland, 31 August – 4 September 2009
A global framework for climate Geneva International Conference Centre
services is proposed as the significant
concrete outcome from WCC-3. It is
well placed to build on the remarkable management— are increasingly will ensure that adaptation decisions
scientific progress of the past 50 years concerned by the growing adverse are smarter, more effective and better
and the solid institutional foundation impacts of climate risks, but are ill- targeted.
provided by the international climate equipped to make use of the available
observation, research and assessment climate information. There is an In order to address the need for
mechanisms put in place by WMO urgent need for a global framework improved climate information and an
and its partner organizations over that defines the interface between effective interface between scientists
the 3 0 year s since the his toric the providers and users of climate and decision-makers, WMO and its
First World Climate Conference of ser vices to ensure that relevant partner organizations, which are
February 1979. climate information is integrated co-sponsoring WCC-3, propose the
into policy development and development and establishment of
decision-making. a new Global Framework for Climate
Why is a Global Services whose goal is to:
Recent advances in science and
Framework for Climate technology offer the prospect of Enable climate adap t ation
Services necessary? continued improvement in climate and climate risk management
information and prediction services. through the inc orp ora tion
Decision-makers in many climate– In particular, integrating seasonal to of science -based climate
sensitive sectors—water, agriculture, decadal predictions and long-term information and prediction
fisheries, health, forestry, transport, climate projections into decision- into policy and practice at all
to ur i s m, e n e r g y, d i s a s t e r r i s k making in all socio-economic sectors levels.
20°N 20°N
Disaster risk reduction is defined in the
UN International Strategy for Disaster
Reduction (UNISDR) terminology as
“action taken to reduce the risk of
0° 0°
0 500 1 000 2 000 disasters and the adverse impacts of
Kilometres
natural hazards, through systematic
40°E 60°E 80°E 100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E efforts to analyse and manage the
Weather-related hazards causes of disasters, including through
Droughts index Tropical cyclones Floods
(frequency and intensity) (sum of winds in km/year) (average annual frequency) avoidance of hazards, reduced
Very high 100 000–426 510 >50 Lakes and oceans
social and economic vulnerability to
High 30 000–100 000 20–50 Regional extent
hazards, and improved preparedness
Moderate high 10 000–30 000 <20 Other regions
3 000–10 000
for adverse events” [5]. It is therefore
Moderate low
Kilometres
to adapt to changing environments
and risks, both at the individual and
40°E 60°E 80°E 100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E
collective levels.
Tectonic hazards
Earthquakes Landslides Tsunami height
(MMI for 10% in 50 years) (intensity and frequency) (coasts covered by the model)
>5 m
Never theless, more people than
IX + Very High Lakes and oceans
VIII High
2–5 m
Regional extent
ever before are aware of the threats
VII Medium <2 m Other regions associated with climate change and
V – VI
Not studied of the need for both mitigation (of
greenhouse-gas emissions) and
Multi-hazard map of Asia (United Nations Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk adaptation (to the inevitable changes
Reduction (2009), page 23) in the climate). Radical changes in
our socio-economic models and
will worsen with climate change. A are initiated by the United Nations behaviour are needed if we are to
record number of 13 international in response to disasters and other substantially reduce greenhouse-
humanitarian “flash appeals”, mostly sudden humanitarian crises. The gas emissions and, for this reason,
for climate-related events, were made humanitarian community has two mitigation occupies the bulk of climate
in 2007. These appeals to donors roles—firstly, to respond to crises negotiators’ attention at present.
SEEDS INDIA
basis for implementation
This priority is important for both
adap t ation and ris k reduc tion.
Suggested actions toward achieving it Indian Himalayan state of Himacha
include: encouraging a core ministry
with a broad mandate including
finance, economics or planning, to high- qualit y information about and personal actions that contribute
be responsible for mainstreaming climate hazards and their likely future to safety and resilience; publicizing
climate change adaptation policies changes; conducting assessments of community successes; training the
and activities; organizing a national vulnerability and specially vulnerable media in climate-related issues;
high-level policy dialogue to prepare a groups; preparing briefings for policy- developing education curricula on
national adaptation strategy that links makers and sector leaders; reviewing climate adaptation and risk reduction;
with disaster risk reduction strategies; the effectiveness of early warning supporting research programmes on
formalizing collaboration and the systems; implementing procedures resilience; and improving mechanisms
coordination of climate-related risk to ensure warnings reach vulnerable for knowledge transfer from science
reduction activities through a multi- groups ; and under taking public to application for risk management in
sector mechanism such as a national information programmes to help climate-sensitive sectors.
platform for disaster risk reduction; people understand the risks they face
and developing mechanisms to and how to respond to warnings.
Priority for action 4: Reduce
actively engage and empower women,
the underlying risk factors
communities and local governments
Priority for action 3: Use
in the assessment of vulnerability and This covers the many environmental
knowledge, innovation and
impacts and the formulation of local and societal factors that create or
education to build a culture of
adaptation activities. exacerbate the risks from natural
safety and resilience at all levels
hazards. Measures can include
T hi s p r in c ip l e ap p li e s e quall y incorporating climate risk-related
Priority for action 2: Identify,
to adaptation and disas ter risk considerations in the development
assess and monitor disaster risks
reduction. Specific steps should planning processes, macro-economic
and enhance early warning
include collating and disseminating projections and sector plans; requiring
Important steps under this priority good practices; undertaking public the use of climate risk-related
include developing and disseminating information programmes on local information in city planning, land-
Introduction changes in land use and atmospheric bridge this spatial scale gap (Giorgi et
aerosol loadings. They have also al., 2001). They have been traditionally
The need for climate change infor provided valuable information on d i v i d e d in to “d y n a mi c a l” a n d
mation at the regional-to-local scale climate change at the global to “statistical” downscaling techniques.
is one of the central issues within sub-continental scale (IPCC, 2007). Dynamical downscaling (DD) makes
the global change debate. Such Although we have seen significant use of physically based models, such
information is necessary in order to improvements in these models, as high-resolution and variable-
assess the impacts of climate change especially in the past decade, due to r e s olu tion glob al a tmo s p he r i c
on human and natural systems and better representation of atmospheric models (AGCMs and VARGCMs,
to develop suitable adaptation and and Earth surface processes and respectively) run in “time-slice” mode
mitigation strategies at the national enhanced computational capabilities, (e.g. Cubasch et al., 1995; Deque and
level. The end-user and policy-making the horizontal resolution of most Piedelievre, 1995) and limited-area
communities have long sought present-day AOGCMs is still of the “regional climate models” or RCMs
reliable regional- and local-scale order of a few hundred kilometres (Giorgi and Mearns, 1999).
projections to provide a solid basis (Meehl et al., 2007). This prevents them
for guiding response options. from capturing the effects of local In statistical downscaling ( SD ),
forcings (e.g. complex topography statistical relationships are first
To date, most regional climate- and land-surface characteristics) developed bet ween large -scale
change information has been based which modulate the climate signal predictors and regional-to-local-
on the use of Coupled Atmosphere- at fine scales. scale predic tands and are then
Ocean General Circulation models applied to the output from climate-
(AOGCMs) enabled by the World Coarse resolution also precludes model simulations ( Hewitson
Climate Research Programme global models from providing an and Crane, 1996). Although many
(WCRP) during the past 30 years accurate description of ex treme different SD models and techniques
(Busalacchi and Asrar, this issue events, which are of fundamental exist (e.g. Wilby et al., 2004; Giorgi
of WMO Bulletin ). AOGCMs have impor tance to users of climate et al., 2001; Wigley and Wilby,
proved to be the most valuable tools information with respect to the 2000; Hewitson and Crane, 1996),
in understanding the processes that regional and local impacts of climate they all share this basic conceptual
determine the response of the climate variabilit y and change. In other framework. A number of papers are
system to anthropogenic forcings, words, a fundamental spatial scale available in the literature to review
such as increases in greenhouse- gap still exists between the climate downscaling work and discuss the
ga s ( GHG ) c on c entra tions and information provided by AOGCMs relative merits and limitations of the
and the input needed for impact different techniques (Laprise et al.,
assessment work. 2008; Schmidli et al., 2007; Giorgi,
1 Abdus Salam International Centre for 2006; Wang et al., 2004; Leung et al.,
Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy In order to circumvent this problem, 2003; Mearns et al., 2003; Murphy,
2 Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological various “regionalization” or “down 1999; Giorgi and Mearns, 1999, 1991;
and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping,
Sweden
scaling” techniques have been McGregor, 1997), and the reader is
3 Director, World Climate Research Pro- developed to spatially refine the referred to these papers for such
gramme, WMO AOGCM climate information and discussions.
Model domains
and resolution CORDEX domains
The choice of common RCD domains
is a prerequisite for the development
of the model evaluation and climate
projection frameworks. The goal of
CORDEX is to provide a framework
accessible to a broad scientific
community with maximum use of
results. CORDEX domains therefore
encompass the majorit y of land
areas of the world. Figure 3 shows
a first selection of common domains
(currently still under discussion),
where these should be interpreted
as interior analysis domains, e.g.
not including the lateral relaxation
zone in RCMs. This selection is based
partly on physical considerations
(i.e. inclusion of processes important
for dif ferent regions), par tly Figure 3— Regional domains planned for the CORDEX experiments (some still under
on considerations of resources discussion); also indicated are existing projects that make use of the corresponding
needed for the simulations and domain.
experiments.
Elbe
50
It is fully appreciated that many Rhine
downscaling groups will favour Danube
40
simulating their “home” domain
first and these regional projections -10 0 10 20 30 40
Change in runoff (%)
are also welcomed in the CORDEX
20.0%
framework. The focus on Africa is 15.0% MPI
Data management
Figure 4 — Change in runoff (%, 2071-2100 minus 1961-2990, A2 scenario) calculated
A key aspec t of the CORDEX for four European drainage basins by the PRUDENCE multi-model RCM ensemble (from
programme will be the management Hagemann and Jacob, 2007)
The 10 RCMs exhibit a consistent with the Africa domain within the can in fact narrow the uncertainty
signal of reduced water availability ERA-Interim driven model evaluation e mana tin g f r om glo b al mo d e l
over the Danube, Elbe and Rhine framework. Figure 5 shows examples simulations. These examples indicate
basins, but a mixed signal over the of such experiments. More specifically, that a RCD-based framework can
Baltic Sea catchment. These results are June-July-August precipitation from indeed provide valuable climate-
attributed to the projected warming two models, RegCM3 from ICTP (Pal change information to guide future
throughout Europe and corresponding et al., 2007) and RCA from the Rossby impact, adaptation and vulnerability
decreased (increased) precipitation Centre (Jones et al., 2004), is compared assessments towards defining choices
over central-south (north) Europe. This with GPCP observations (Gruber and for coping with climate variability and
type of signal remains fairly consistent Levizzani, 2008). In addition, the top change across Africa.
when different GCMs are used to drive panels also compare simulated and
the same set of regional models. The observed (ERA-Interim) low-level
type of information in Figure 4 is an winds from RegCM3. Both models
Summary and
important input to guiding future show a generally good agreement
conclusions
management and planning of water with observations for the selected
resources at the European, national large domain. In this article, we present a new
and even regional scales. framework for regional climate
Some results based on SD studies modelling and downscaling, called
The PRUDENCE strategy can be for Africa are also available in the CORDEX, with the two-fold aim of
extended to CORDEX and the Africa literature such as Hewitson and developing a coordinated framework
focus application will provide an Crane (2006), who use SD models for evaluating and improving RCD
important initial test-bed. Some groups to downscale results from multiple techniques and producing a new
have already started experimenting AOGCMs showing how this approach generation of RCD-based fine-scale
33
sections. 35
45
20 VII
20 Key
Agriculture and food 45 VIII Figures on the map represent Generally food secure
35 Moderately food insecure
probability of: Highly food insecure
security outlooks
Extremely food insecure
A Above normal rainfall Famine
20 Near normal rainfall
IX 45
N No data
35 B Below normal rainfall
Figure 4 — Dissemination of seasonal climate outlook through local students and women’s groups
Early warning
Building a climate
information system
Government
response
Sustainable
development for agroclimatic risk
Risk transference
management in the
Politic
Sectoral planning
Andean countries
instruments
Reduction of
Land use planning socio-economic This project was launched in June
impacts
Decentralization
20 07 and is, by it s nature and
structure, one of the main exercises
Local capacities of regional scope focused on climate
strengthening
risk management. Its objective was
to help reduce the socio-economic
impact of the action of the climate on
farming activity in the countries of the
Andean region by setting up a climate
information system as a Regional
Figure 2 — Conceptual elements of early warning to risk management systems, Martínez Public Good, focusing on the needs
(2004) of farmers, suppor ting decision-
making and risk management in the
agricultural sector.
the form of policy instruments which
Early warning system
may be implemented as a variety of T he pr oje c t had the follow ing
mechanisms of differing complexities: The set of capacities needed to components:
regional planning, decentralization, generate and disseminate timely and
risk transfer and environmental man meaningful warning information to • System for processing data and
agement, among others. National enable individuals, communities and climate information;
governments can also strengthen the organizations threatened by a hazard • Information dissemination
capacities of National Meteorological to prepare and to act appropriately system;
and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and in sufficient time to reduce the • Institutional strengthening.
and research centres, constantly possibility of harm or loss. This
improving the computing resources definition encompasses the range of
and building personnel capacities so factors necessary to achieve effective
Regional climate database
that they can at last lead their countries responses to warnings. for western South America
along a path of truly sustainable
development (Figure 2). A people-centred early warning Und er the f ir s t c omp one n t , in
system necessarily comprises four the National Meteorological and
It is not sufficient, however, to have key elements: Hydrological Ser vice of the six
a conceptual scheme and merely talk countries of western South America,
about it. CIIFEN had to validate this • Knowledge of the risks; the project undertook a complex
scheme in the field by means of a • Monitoring, analysis and process of recovery and conversion
pilot project. CIIFEN had this great forecasting of the hazards; of data from meteorological stations
opportunity when the Inter-American • Communication or dissemination for digitizing and quality-control
Development Bank approved, in the of alerts and warnings; and processing. At the same time, it
category Regional Public Goods, the • Local capabilities to respond to worked on the design of a regional
project “Climate information applied the warnings received. climate database that culminated in
to agricultural risk management in the the input of the 3 879 035 records
Andean countries”, which involved The expression “end-to-end warning of pre cipi t a tion and ma ximum
the National Meteorological and system” is also used to emphasize and minimum temperature from
Hydrological Services of Bolivia, that warning systems need to span all 169 meteorological stations in the
Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and steps from hazard detection through region. A digital interface was built
Venezuela, coordinated by CIIFEN. to community response (source: for displaying historical data (http://
Decision-support systems
One of the most important pillars
of CIIFEN initiatives is decision-
support tools. For the agricultural
Figure 3 — Regional climate database for western South America: sector in particular, we designed
http://vac.ciifen-int.org
• Regional workshop for South • Regional workshop on advanced • Sea-surface temperature images
America on managing and numerical modelling, 2008 for the eastern Pacific (weekly);
rescuing climate data, 2003 (6 countries)
(15 countries) • CIIFEN bulletin on the state of El
• Ibero-American workshop on Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO),
• Regional workshop for South seasonal forecasting, 2008 focusing on impacts in Central
America on climate applications (20 countries) and South America (monthly);
in agriculture, 2003 (16 countries)
• Regional workshop on • Seasonal forecast for western
• Regional workshop for South processing climate data, 2008 South America (monthly);
America on climate applications (6 countries)
in the health sector, 2004 • Oceanographic analysis of the
(14 countries) • Regional Climate Outlook Forums eastern Pacific (monthly)
III, IV, V, VI, VII and VIII, 2003,
• Regional workshop on regional 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008
ocean and climate modelling, (6 countries) Climate change,
2004 (8 countries). risk management
• More than 35 local workshops
• Alexander Von Humboldt conducted at community and adaptation
international conference: The El level throughout Bolivia, Chile Climate change is a regular item
Niño phenomenon and its global Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and on the CIIFEN agenda. From the
impact, 2005 (75 countries, Venezuela conceptual point of view, the agendas
350 participants). of climate change, risk management
• Regional course on statistical and environmental management
• International workshop: El Niño modelling, Maracay, Venezuela, are not necessarily parallel or inde
and its impact on the Pacific 2007 pendent. The common ground is
basin, 2005 (23 countries) where the population interacts with
• Regional course on dynamic the ecosystems and goes about its
• Ibero-American workshop modelling I, Lima, Peru, 2007 business. Climate variability is a
on climate change and risk constant factor that is being affected
management, 2006 (21 countries) • Regional course on mapping by climate change. But, in practice,
agroclimatic risk, Guayaquil, people alter the land, degrading the
• Regional workshop: ENSO and Ecuador, 2008 ecosystems and creating the risk
its social and economic impacts, of increased social, economic and
2006 (14 countries). • Regional course on dynamic environmental vulnerability.
modelling II, Guayaquil, Ecuador,
• Regional workshop on climate- 2008 C II FEN ’s wor k fo c us e s on ris k
change indices and indicators, management for the local climate as
2006 (6 countries) • Course on climate data analysis the main tool for devising strategies
and processing, Maracay, to adapt at local level because this
• Regional workshop on statistical Venezuela, 2008 is the best stage to understand and
modelling, 2007 (6 countries) tackle environmental, social and
• Training courses for experts in cultural aspects. Working at local
• Regional workshop on dynamic the region at IRI, 2007, 2008 level requires close contact with the
modelling, 2007 (6 countries) authorities and the community, and
this does not require scenarios for
• Regional workshop on 80 or 100 years. CIIFEN is promoting
agricultural climate risk mapping, the use of RClimDex (a sof tware
2008 (6 countries) package for indices calculation, see
http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/
software.shtml) to establish trends
of indicators and indices of climate
change on much shorter timescales
with a better local approximation.
Acknowledgements
Figure 8 — CIIFEN´s operational products
To A lexandra Rivadeneira, A bigail
There is also a need to understand Strengthening Alvarado and Juan José Nieto from
the relationships between climate,
capabilities CIIFEN Information Systems Unit for their
territory and humans that can partly contribution to this article.
explain future climate vulnerability. In all its projects, CIIFEN has worked
CIIFEN considers that climate risk hard to strengthen capabilities and Bibliography and references
management can be adapted in set up regional working groups. In
the present and resilience achieved recent years, as part of our projects, IADB Regional Public Goods Portal
gradually. we have devised many training http://www.iadb.org/projects/Project.
cfm?language=Spanish&PROJECT=
courses in line with a whole strategy RG-T1209
CIIFEN has taken part in two projects for strengthening capabilities for the IRI: Climate Predictability Tool
related to climate change, the first provision of climate services (see box ht tp : / / iri.columbia.edu / outreach /
software/
on the determination of indices of on previous page).
Supplement to State of the Climate
climate change indicators for the coast in 2005: K.A. Shein, Bulletin of the
of Ecuador and an initial report of As a result, more than 150 experts American Meteorological Society,
these results with possible trends in in the region have been trained, and Volume 87, Issue 6 (June 2006),
68-71.
land use in the area from previously three active networks or working Supplement to State of the Climate
determined climate-risk zones; the groups have been consolidated: in 2006: A. Arguez, Bulletin of the
work took place in close coordination American Meteorological Society,
Volume 88, Issue 6 (June 2007),
with the National Meteorological and • Regional numerical modelling 90–93.
Hydrological Institute of Ecuador. group; RClimdex
• Regional seasonal forecasting http: //cccma.seos.uvic.ca / ETCCDMI /
software.shtml
A second experience for CIIFEN was group;
State of the Climate in 2007: D.H. Levinson
its participation in the analysis of • Regional climate-change and J. H. Lawrimore, Bulletin of the
the vulnerability to climate change indicators group. American Meteorological Society,
of the biodiversity and population of Volume 89, Issue 7 (July 2008),
124–129
the Galapagos Islands. This project Worthy of a special mention is the UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk
was suppor ted by Conser vation recent Ibero-American workshop on Reduction (2009)
International and the World Wildlife seasonal forecasting attended by 52 http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/
UNISDR-terminology-2009-eng.pdf
Fund and allowed the conceptual participants from 19 countries and,
framework described above to be which is to be held again in the second
applied to a specific case. half of 2009, in Guayaquil, Ecuador.
Introduction
The interplay between hydrological
and climatological information and
analyses offers a maturing capability
to assess expected terrestrial water
regimes. This article is concerned
with hydrological aspects of this
water-climate linkage. It considers the
major areas of information exchange
bet ween the t wo domains that
enhance the capabilities of both. It then
discusses capabilities of hydrological
analyses in assessing impacts of
climate conditions, describing some
specific examples in flood and water
resource contexts to illustrate both
potentials and difficulties associated possible climate-induced changes In this article, the time base in the
with such analyses. The final section of in water regimes and availability. consideration of climate (as opposed
the article deals with future challenges The considerations addressed in the to meteorology) is taken to be greater
to be met in this area of prediction article are important not only in the than seasonal, with the emphasis on
in the terrestrial phase of the water light of any man-induced changes periods of years and decades: it is of
cycle. to the climate system but to the course the case that linkages between
management of terrestrial water the atmospheric and terrestrial water
The use of hydrological analyses under the ubiquitous conditions domains also enhance shorter-term
and modelling to explore climate of natural variability of the climate predictions, albeit used in a somewhat
impacts is by no means a new field of system. different manner. The term hydrology
investigation, nor is the need for data is used in the sense of covering the
exchange between atmospheric and The question of climatic impact on land phase of the water cycle (natural
Earth sciences a new requirement. the hydrological domain is an area and managed): the interaction of the
It is, however, the case that there of widespread concern, investigation marine environment with the climate
is currently a compelling impetus and publication, both of global scale system is beyond the scope of this
in t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s b e c au s e o f and overview information and of many article, as are issues of water quality,
perceived improvement in technical academic articles addressing specific as opposed to water quantity. The
developments in predictive tools points of research. Useful examples aim of the article is to discuss the
and, in many regions of the world, of wide scale work, but by no means nature and direction of some technical
increased awareness and concern of the only sources, include Bates et al. developments, together with their
(2008); Dialogue on Water and Climate potential and drawbacks, and to look at
* C entre for Ecology and Hydrology, (2003); European Commission (2005); some example applications addressing
Wallingford, Oxon, United Kingdom and WMO (2009). major strands, accompanying this with
Ea c h of the s e s o c io - e c onomi c
scenarios was linked with a likely
climate scenario (Hulme et al., 2002)
in terms of global greenhouse-gas
World market 2080s Global sustainability 2080s
emission scenarios considered (850 ppm) (550 ppm)
-0.90 to -0.75
but, in many regions of the world,
-0.75 to -0.5 the current climate poses significant
-0.5 to -0.2 water-management problems in
-0.2 to 0.2
terms of deficit and/or excess water,
0.2 to 0.5
Introduction mutually supportive in the agriculture fish and humans. When human health
sector. is compromised, particularly that
Human beings have learned to live of women who prepare foods for
with climate variability on various household members, the capacity to
timescales, from daily to decadal. Food security and utilize food effectively is dramatically
However, the climate variability we climate change lowered. Food safety may also be
are accustomed to is changing quickly, compromised with degraded hygiene
accompanied by a rise in global Climate change affects livelihoods in preparing food under limited fresh
mean temperature due to increasing of poor and rich alike by impacting water availability or food-storage
greenhouse - gas concentrations basic human needs, including food, ability due to warmer climate. Mal
in the atmosphere. The poor in clothing and shelter requirements. nutrition may also increase, due
developing countries who already T h e f our c o mp o n e n t s o f f o o d to shrinking food biodiversity and
have difficulties in coping with current security—food availability, food excessive dependence on a few staple
climate variability will be even more access, food utilization and food foods.
vulnerable. They are the ones who production system stability—are
contribute the least to emissions of the hear t of the mandate of the The changes in climate variability
greenhouse gases, yet need to learn to Food and Agriculture Organization have a direct implication on food -
cope with changing climate with few of the United Nations (FAO). All four production system stability. Increased
financial or technical resources. components are affected by climate frequency and intensity of extreme
(FAO, 2008(a)) but food availability events such as drought and flood
This article first discusses the multiple is most intimately associated with would be a great threat to stability,
aspects of food security in the light of climate and its changes, from crops whether the impact is domestic or
climate change. The next part looks to animal products, marine and through the global food market. The
at impacts on crop production at aquaculture products and wood and frequency and magnitude of food
different spatial scales. Adaptation non-wood products from forests. emergencies might increase, resulting
to climate variability is most urgent for Even when production is sufficient, if from complex interrelations between
food security of smallholders, while a system of food allocation, whether it political conflicts and migration in a
climate prediction and longer-term is through market or not, is negatively context of increased competition for
climate-change-impact assessments affected, food access is impaired limited resources.
constitute the basis for adaptation and food security is compromised.
measures. This is discussed with an Urbanization is rapidly taking place in
example of a study in Morocco and many countries of the world, creating Global impacts on
a focus on use of climate prediction a category of urban poor who do potential agricultural
and information. The article concludes not themselves farm and are very
with a discussion on adaptation and vulnerable to climate change. production
mitigation measures that are often Food availability and agricultural
Projections of increased pests and production under climate change are
* E
nvironment, Climate Change and diseases due to climate change have discussed in Chapter 5 “Food, fibre
Bioenergy Division, Food and Agriculture an important implication for nutrition. and forest products” of the second
Organization of the United Nations
New risks will affect crops, livestock, volume of the Fourth Assessment
Figure 1 — Net primary production of biomass per capita percent change (from 1961–1990 mean to 2030): data compiled and adjusted
by FAO Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division, based on “World maps of climatological net primary production of
biomass (NPP)” (2006) available at http://www.fao.org/NR/climpag/globgrids/NPP_en.asp
Margaret Bushby In this way, first as a scientist in the support of projects, her understated
(née Atkins) Forecasting Research Branch and sense of humour, how they appreciated
then, by the early 1980s, in the group her knowledge and agreeable help,
adapting the operational model of how her interventions were always
Margaret Bushby (née Atkins) died the atmosphere to the needs of the received with a deal of affectionate
on 27 December 2008. She married Central Forecast Office at Bracknell, amusement, how she was a great
late in life and was well-known in she helped the forecasters there personality; she was remembered for
international meteorological circles meet not only national needs but also all sorts of reasons. In my later years
under both surnames. their obligations as a WMO Regional in the Office, I enjoyed her company,
Meteorological Centre and as one of both in Bracknell, at ECMWF and in
Norfolk-born, she graduated with the two World Area Forecast Centres Geneva: I found that, once she chose
a BSc Hons in Mathematics from for aviation. She was an essential to work on a problem, her ability
Nottingham University in 1966 and part of the team which continually to analyse it and her proposals on
joined the United Kingdom Met improved the accuracy of NWP how to implement the results of her
Office. She found her niche in its team products from 1967 to the present thinking were superb.
of workers on mathematical models day; the team which Sir John Mason
for numerical weather prediction and Colin Flood wrote “helped bring A highlight of her international
(NWP), headed by F.H. Bushby, and about a total transformation in the life was a visit to the National
with J.S. Sawyer. She described the way weather forecasting is carried Meteorological Service of Ghana,
United Kingdom’s first operational out”. where she represented the Met
model (used in the Central Forecast Office as a fellow Commonwealth
Office from 2 November 1965) in an In the mid-1980s Margaret joined Meteorological Service. The ladies
article in Meteorological Magazine t h e M e t O f f i c e ’s in te r na t io nal there made a delightful fuss of her
in 1970. af fairs branch and quickly made that she never forgot.
her distinctive mark. When she
By then, the Met Office was working became its Director in 1990, she In 1990 she became the first woman
towards its nex t supercomputer also became the first woman to to be elec ted a member of the
and a more detailed NWP model. reach that level in the Met Office. Meteorological Club, a subset of some
In Februar y 1971, for example, Sometimes supporting the Director- of the more distinguished Fellows of
Bushby, Mavis Hinds and Margaret General, Sir John Houghton, and the Royal Meteorological Society.
carried punched Hollerith cards on often alone, she contributed to many
the weekly Royal Air Force flight international meetings, including Her de facto memorials are on the
to Washington en route to the IBM World Meteorological Congress, World-Wide Web: a random sample
facilit y in Poughkeepsie, NY, to WMO constituent bodies and the of the activities she was involved
develop the model on their newest Council and Finance Committee of the in during her later years includes
supercomputer. Later that year, the European Centre for Medium Range reports on the Automated Shipboard
IBM 360 /195 was installed in the Weather Forecasts (EMCWF). Aerological Programme Panel and
newly built Richardson Wing at the tenth session of the Coordinating
Bracknell, to be opened by Prime Colleagues from across the world Group for the Composite Observing
Minister Edward Heath. have written, testifying to her strong System for the North Atlantic.
Turkey Chile
Istanbul, Turkey, March 2009 —
The World Water Council’s 5th World Mr Jarraud with Mr Veysel Ero lu, Minister T he S e c r e t ar y - G e n e r al v i s i te d
Water Forum was held in Istanbul of Environment and Forestry of Turkey Santiago de Chile on 26 and 27 March
from 16 to 22 March 2009, under the 2009, when national ceremonies took
theme “Bridging divides for water”. place to mark the 125th anniversary
The Secretary-General delivered of the historic legal act of 26 March
WMO’s statement and met with water resources management systems 1884 which established coordinated
Turkey’s Minister of Environment and informed the participants on the meteorological observations in Chile
and Forestr y, Mr Veysel Ero lu. importance of the forthcoming World and their telegraphic concentration at
Moreover, Mr Jarraud met with His Climate Conference-3. the Central Meteorological Office.
Serene Highness Albert II, Prince of
Monaco, for private discussions on
climate change and development
issues, including preparations for
World Climate Conference-3.
Bahamas
On 24 April 2009 the Secretar y-
General visited Nassau to participate
in the closure of the 31st session of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, April 2009 — (from left to right) Goroza Guehi, Permanent
the RA IV Hurricane Committee and Representative (PR) with WMO of Côte d’Ivoire; Arthur Gar-Glahn, PR of Liberia; Anthony
the opening of the 15th session of Anuforom, PR of Nigeria; M. Jarraud; Mactar Ndiaye, PR of Senegal; Ali Jacques Garane,
Regional Association IV (24 April- PR of Burkina Faso; and Awadi Abi Egbare, PR of Togo
1 May 2009). During his visit, he met
with the Rt Hon. Hubert A. Ingraham,
Prime Minister of the Bahamas, and
HE the Hon. Earl D. Deveaux, Minister of the International Workshop on Noël Ouedraogo, and had discussions
of the Environment. Adaptation to Climate Change in with Mr Moumouni Dieguimde,
West African Agriculture, which was Director General of Civil Aviation
Mr Jarraud had extensive discussions organized by WMO, FAO, the State a n d Mr A . J. G ar a n e, D ir e c to r,
with the newly-elected president Agency for Meteorology of Spain, National Meteorological Service and
of RA IV, Mr Arthur W. Rolle, the the African Development Bank , Permanent Representative of Burkina
vice-president, Ms Luz Graciela de the Economic Community of West Faso with WMO. Furthermore, the
Calzadilla, and with all permanent African States, the International Secretar y-General met with the
representatives present in Nassau Crops Research Institute for the permanent representatives who
on the occasion. Semi-Arid Tropics, the International participated in the workshop.
Livestock Research Institute and the
General Directorate of Civil Aviation
Burkina Faso Senegal
and Meteorology of Burkina Faso.
T h e S e c r e t ar y - G e n e r al v i s i t e d In order to fur ther develop the
Ouagadougou from 27 to 30 April Mr Jarraud met with Burkina Faso’s existing close cooperation between
2009 to address the opening session Minister of Transport, HE Gilbert G. the two organizations, the Secretary-
General of WMO visited Dakar on
28 and 29 April 2009 and met with
Mr Youssouf Mahamat, Director-
General of the Agency for Air Safety
in Africa and Madagascar.
France
I n P a r i s , o n 14 M a y 2 0 0 9, t h e
Secretar y-General addressed on
behalf of WMO a special session
a t Franc e’s Sena te, a t the k ind
invi t a tion of Sena tor Chris tian
Gaudin, Vice -President of the
Parliamentar y Evaluation Of fice
for Scientific and Technological
Options. The session was dedicated
Nassau, Bahamas — (from left to right) Rob Masters, Director, WMO Development and to the official closure in France of
Regional Activities Department; Arthur Rolle, president of RA IV; Hubert Ingraham, Prime the International Polar Year 2007-
Minister of the Bahamas; and the Secretary-General of WMO. 2008 campaign.
By John Houghton
By R.R. Kelkar By Jerry M. Straka
Cambridge University Press (2009)
BS Publications (2009) Cambridge University Press (2009)
ISBN 978-0-521-70916-3
ISBN 978-81-7800-185-2 ISBN 978-0-521-88338-2
xviii + 438 pp.
xviii + 234 pp. xiv + 392 pp.
Price: £ 24.99/US$ 59
Price: Rs 995 Price: £ 70/US$ 130
Life in India revolves around the This book focuses primarily on bin Global Warming is a topic that
Indian southwest monsoon which and bulk parameterizations for the increasingly occupies the attention
is the most intense among all global prediction of cloud and precipitation of the world. Is it really happening?
monsoons. It is India’s prime source a t va r i o u s s c a l e s . I t p r ov i d e s If so, how much of it is due to human
of water, and Indian agriculture, food a background to the fundamental activities? How far will it be possible
grain production and the GDP growth principles of parameterization physics, to adapt to changes of climate? What
rate are linked to the behaviour of the including processes involved in the action to combat it can or should we
monsoon rains. This book deals with production of clouds, ice particles, take? How much will it cost? Or is it
the particular challenge posed by the rain, snow crystals, snow aggregates, already too late for useful action? This
need for monsoon prediction, users’ frozen drops, graupels and hail. book sets out to provide answers to
expectations, the current state-of-the- It presents complete derivations all these questions.
art in monsoon modelling, present of the various processes, allowing
scientific limitations and future readers to build parameterization
prospects. It discusses the projections packages, with varying levels of
of monsoon behaviour in the 21st complexity based on information in
century, and the likely impact of global this book. Architectures for a range
warming on the monsoon. of dynamical models are also given,
in which parameterizations form a
significant tool for investigating large
Idojaras— non-linear numerical systems. Model
Quarterly Journal codes are available online at www.
of the Hungarian cambridge.org/straka.
Meteorological
Service
S p e c ia l i s s u e : Sy mp o s ium o n
Climate Change and Variability—
Agrometeorological Monitoring and
Coping Strategies for Agriculture
WMO Bulletin
Disaster risk reduction,
climate risk management and
sustainable development
165