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IN DE P E ND E NT T EC H NO L O G Y R E S E AR C H
Sector Update
GP BULLHOUND TECHNOLOGY PREDICTIONS 2011
January 2011
2011 PREDICTIONS:
Investors Ready to Open Pockets to Innovative
GOOGLE’S ANDROID Technologies In 2011
DISTANCING APPLE’S IOS
MOBILE PAYMENTS SET TO For the fourth year running, GP Bullhound is publishing its Technology
SURGE IN 2011 – GET READY Predictions for the upcoming year.
FOR THE RACE
AUGMENTED REALITY(1) Accordingly, many of our predictions seek to streamline the way we approach
APPLICATIONS TAKE-OFF,
DRIVEN BY A LOCATION BASED
everyday tasks. In 2011, we anticipate consumers will take another step
SERVICES FOOTPRINT towards wireless by adopting shopping, dating, gambling, payments and even
household management on mobile. The rise in augmented reality adoption will
MOBILE AND SMART GRID complement this, as we continue to merge the information on the web with our
APPLICATIONS OPEN THE
DIGITAL HOME
mobile lifestyles. Moreover, as mobile applications continue to proliferate we
expect developer-friendly open platform benefits will extend Google’s Android
Christian Lagerling
christian.lagerling@gpbullhound.com --------------------------------------------------
San Francisco: +1 415 986 0196
Per Roman *Note that GP Bullhound acts or has acted as an advisor to some of the companies mentioned in this
per.roman@gpbullhound.com
report. Please refer to disclaimer at the back for full disclosure
London: +44 (0) 207 101 7568
Julien Oussadon
Justine Chan
Florent Roulet
2010 Predictions: Looking back at our “GP Bullhound Technology Predictions 2010” we are
pleased to note that several of our projections gained strong momentum
during the year, while a few showed early signs but still with some ways to
“The year of Behavioral
re-targeting”
go.
Our first prediction that behavioural re-targeting will increasingly be
“Augmented reality is adopted by online retailers was confirmed with the market, reaching critical
becoming a reality...”
– mass in 2010 especially in the US. Several leading innovators received
more venture funding during the year (e.g. Criteo, MyThings, Cognitive
“Cloud computing drives Match) while others were acquired by established Internet giants (e.g.
green IT initiatives”
Dapper / Yahoo! or FetchBack / GSI Commerce).
Perhaps most obvious, the number of mobile applications exploded
“Mobile applications
become a mainstay” during the year with Android gaining a significant market share and Apple’s
“The return of the tablet
particular opportunity for augmented reality in gaming applications due to
the high user interaction.
The tablet market did stage a comeback with the success of Apple’s iPad
PC”
– leading the way. However, we will wait to see in 2011 if Apple and its
“ebook applications will numerous followers using Google’s Android platform are able to capitalise
explode across a on this successful early adoption to reach the broader market. Ebook
multitude of devices and
applications will rely on tablets to explode in 2011. Even if several
channels”
– channels and devices have adopted ebooks, tablets could prove to offer the
“Affordable electric and best user experience and provide significant opportunities for an upcoming
hybrid vehicles reach the mass adoption of ebook applications.
broad demographics”
“Consolidation within the
In the online music, the battle has begun between the different business
models (download / streaming, advertising / subscription / purchase, etc.),
solar photovoltaics with Apple, Google/YouTube, Spotify, Deezer and Rdio as the main
supply chain”
combatants. However, winners are not quite defined yet.
Micro-transactions and virtual currencies moved in 2010 beyond the
“Industry shakeout in
online music distribution original gaming sphere with customers increasingly conceiving to buy
as the winners are
defined”
– certain goods online rather than at their local stores. As micro-payments
exploded, we anticipate the same to happen on mobile in 2011.
Several players in the electric and hybrid vehicles space have
demonstrated that innovation and quality could be combined to produce
affordable and reliable cars. Tesla Motors in the US (listed since June
2010), Micro-Vett and Ashwoods Automotive in Europe are expected to
continue expanding their production in 2011. Mass adoption is still to come
however.
Consolidation within the solar PV value chain has been one of the key
Cleantech themes of the year. Strategic and Asian players are driving this
consolidation (e.g. LDK / Solar Power). Large PV manufacturers are also
acquiring successful developers and their pipelines (e.g. First Solar /
NextLight and Edison Mission, Sharp / Recurrent Energy).
10.8% 9.0%
Mountain View, US 25.0%
80% 33.0%
3-month average -
33.5%
37.6%
60% 30.0%
27.0%
Mountain View, US 40% 25.0%
24.2%
20% 45.0%
33.0%
26.0%
19.6%
0%
London, UK August 10 November 10 End of 2011 End of 2014
Google / Android Apple RIM / Blackberry Microsoft Palm
vs.
Source: Google, Samsung, Motorola, Apple
San Francisco, US
Bling Nation which have recently entered the market, to more established
players such as Allopass.
Exhibit 3 – Mobile Finance Taxonomy
Rome, Italy
Munich, Germany
Mobile
Finance
Palo Alto, US
Providers
Handset Contact
Mobile Banking Mobile
Payments
/ Zetawire
Source: GP Bullhound
There are a number of technology trends which have surfaced and resulted
in a more favorable environment for the development of mobile payments
services. Firstly, the rise of smartphones has resulted in users having
access to Internet on the go and through high quality usable interfaces thus
reducing friction in the buying process. As a result, iPhones and other
smartphones have enabled mass consumption of diverse mobile content
and services, such as music, games, banking and shopping.
The mobile payments landscape is currently taking shape, resulting in a
fragmented position today where there around 5-10 key players. M&A
naturally follows, with recent market rumors that Google and Apple have
been bidding at five times revenue for US mobile payments specialist Boku.
We expect consolidation to accelerate and come from various angles
including handset manufacturers, social networks, Internet players,
payment processors, banks and telco carriers.
4
Richmond, UK
+ +
Source: GP Bullhound
London, UK
As social shopping will continue to grow on the Internet in 2011, the
move to mobile will be based on the same success factors: bringing
together shopping communities and sharing recommendations.
Stockholm, Sweden
Following the explosion of social networks usage on smartphones in 2010,
retailers can initially only integrate popular sites to their platforms to make
sure shopping recommendations can easily be shares among friends’
Petah Tikva, Israel networks via feeds page. In a more advanced move to mobile, several
mobile apps are based on in-store barcode scanning.
Group shopping will also find its mobile equivalent. Groupon acquired
New York, US mobile development firm Mob.ly in May 2010 and has since successfully
developed applications for iPhone and Android. We can easily imagine
group shopping websites suggesting local deals thanks to location-based
Melbourne, Australia features in smartphones.
Online gambling is expected to experience significant geographic
expansion as it potentially becomes legal in several key US states in 2011
London, UK
(e.g. New Jersey and California) while several additional European markets
will be deregulated (following France and Italy). The move to mobile will
London, UK allow punters to place bets or play ‘in casinos’ anytime and anywhere, thus
significantly increasing user options. As an example, UK bookmakers, after
having successfully transitioned to online gambling, have recently launched
mobile applications to allow real-time betting via smartphones.
After several years of uncertain results, mobile dating will finally become a
reality. Location-based mobile data applications are flourishing at a fast
pace, indicating in real-time who is single around you (e.g. in an airport or
even simply in the street). Thanks to 24/7 access and 3G-enabled video
chat, mobile smartphones will offer a very strong medium for dating
communities.
5
Gartner Research expects that over one-third of the mobile workforce will
use AR applications by 2014, as today’s consumers exhibit increasing
London, UK
reliance on mobile access to information for everyday life.
Exhibit 6 – Yell Employs AR Application for Listings
Source: Yell.com
Source: Intel
Source: GE
Ottawa, Canada
Source: Forrester
100
80 94
US$ per kg
60 70 70
59 60
40
20
0
2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010E
Source: GP Bullhound
With more than 150 individual thin film companies in thin film, we predict
massive consolidation driven by the entry of industrial players with their
capital and manufacturing might.
We believe VCs will need to realign their expectations as returns are likely
to disappoint. Unlike the chip sector which provided VC style returns
supported by Moore’s Law, the solar sector has natural efficiency ceilings
and cost floors and as such improvements are in steps rather than bounds.
Hence, risk capital is more suited from strategic players that can take a
longer view on returns. VCs will use renewed momentum to get out of these
investments as they will not be able to continue to support the capital
intensive nature of this industry.
Bellevue, US
porting costs), platform vendors like Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony face
unprecedent challenges and will likely have to reinvent their business
models.
Exhibit 11 – Cloud Gaming vs. Traditional Gaming Ecosystem
Aliso Viejo, US
Console Gaming Environment Cloud Gaming Environment
etc. Per-game
Xbox 360
download
PS3 / PSP 3rd Party Publishers Digital Distribution
Time-based
Independent
iPhone / iPad
self-published
Los Angeles, US developers All Digital
etc.
Source: GP Bullhound
10
London, UK This trend will have a negative impact on the number of blogs and personal
websites as well as on the press and public relations sectors. To share
personal opinion or important news to a large audience, Twitter and
San Francisco, US equivalent platforms such as Yammer or Tumblr will increasingly be a
viable alternative (e.g. details of Prince William’s wedding have been made
public on Twitter instead of a traditional press release via traditional media).
New York, US Blog articles, longer to write, will predominantly be expert views based on a
detailed analysis. For less formal and straight-to-the-point ideas, shorter
messages will be preferred.
Exhibit 13 – Twitter can also easily be integrated within Blogs via Widgets
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Berlin, Germany Crowdcast is a social business intelligence vendor that provides an on-
demand / SaaS platform which enables decision-makers to forecast
industry trends, sales and regulatory factors. The company has announced
partnerships with SAP BOBJ, Brightidea and Peer Insight.
ListenLogic is a social market research and analytics company that
leverages online consumers’ opinion to help businesses identify new
opportunities, better understand consumer behaviours, develop marketing
strategies, provide crisis managament support, etc.
Data Layer
Profile / Identity Social Network Location-Based Behaviour
Information Information Information Information
Analytics Layer
Data Processing
Real-Time Monitoring Predictive Analysis Capabilities SaaS
(Speed & Volume)
Benefits
Discover and Map New
Increase Reach Lower Acquisition Costs
Market Segments
Increase Conversion Increase Loyalty /
Quantify Results
Rates Repeatability
Source: GP Bullhound
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Disclaimer: Information contained in the document does not constitute an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any
securities. This document is made available for general information purposes only and is intended for professional investors who have a high
degree of financial sophistication and knowledge. This document and any of the products and information contained herein are not intended
for the use of retail investors in the UK or any other territory. Although all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information
contained in this document is accurate and current, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by GP Bullhound LLP as to its
accuracy, completeness and currency. This report contains forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results
may differ significantly from the results described in the forward-looking statements. In particular, but without limiting the preceding
sentences, you should be aware that statements of fact or opinion made, may not be up-to-date or may not represent the current opinion
(whether public or confidential) of GP Bullhound LLP. In addition, opinions and estimates are subject to change without notice. This report
does not constitute a specific investment recommendation or advice upon which you should rely based upon, or irrespective of, your
personal circumstances. Use of this document is not a substitute for obtaining proper investment advice from an authorized investment
professional. Potential retail investors are urged to consult their own authorized investment professional before entering into any investment
agreement. Past performance of securities is not necessarily a guide to future performance and the value of securities may fall as well as
rise. In particular, investments in the technology sector can involve a high degree of risk and investors may not get back the full amount
invested.
GP Bullhound LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the United Kingdom and is registered in England No.
OC352636
GP Bullhound LLP is or has been engaged as an advisor in the past twelve months to the following companies mentioned in this report:
Calyxo, Mobcast and Neomobile.
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