Coral Reefs and Climate Change

Planning for the Future

ZSL Conservation

Value of coral reef ecosystems

Tropical coral reefs are the most diverse marine ecosystems on the planet, with
ecosystem services estimated to be worth US$172-375 per annum1. More than 100
countries have coastlines with coral reefs2. Half a billion people (8% of the world’s
population) heavily depend on reefs for food, coastal protection, building materials and
income from tourism, and 30 million are entirely dependent on reefs3.

Coral reefs in decline

In 2008 19% of coral reefs had been lost and 35% were threatened through direct
human impacts and climate change. Global climate change will threaten all coral reefs
through increased frequency of coral bleaching events, ocean acidification and
increased frequency of serious storm events4. At today’s level of 387 ppm atmospheric
CO2, most reefs worldwide are committed to irreversible decline1. At current rates of
CO2 emission we can expect to reach 450 ppm in the atmosphere by 20301. At this
concentration coral reefs will be in rapid and terminal decline across the globe from the
combined effects of mass bleaching, acidification and other environmental impacts1.

Planning for the future

To ensure the long-term viability of coral reefs it is now agreed by leading coral reef and
climate change scientists that atmospheric CO2 concentrations need to be significantly
below 350 ppm1. A major reduction of CO2 emissions combined with active removal of
atmospheric CO2 through the use of carbon sinks and geoengineering techniques is
critically needed to ensure the long term future of coral reefs.

In addition to saving coral reefs as a functional ecosystem, we also need to plan for the
anticipated consequences of further coral reef degradation. The predicted socio-
economic consequences of a large-scale coral reef collapse are not fully understood
yet, but are likely to be severe. Forecasting and planning for these socio-economic
effects is an absolute priority if we are to minimise the impacts on coastal populations of
increased levels of poverty, migration, malnutrition and insecurity. Initial forecasts for the
climate change induced loss of fisheries in the tropics indicate that catches could
decrease by up to 40% by 2100 at present rates of greenhouse gas emissions5.
Economic losses for Caribbean coral reefs in terms of fisheries, tourism and shoreline
protection were estimated at US $350-870 million per year up to 20156.

New policies need to be implemented immediately in order to firstly try to save

corals reefs as a functional ecosystem, but also start to plan for the anticipated
consequences of global coral reef degradation.
© J.E.N.©Veron
Copyright Photographer
/ Corals of the World


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 Coral Reefs and Climate Change
Key Recommendations

ZSL Conservation

Planning for climate change

impacts on coral reefs
Improve our understanding of the consequences of coral reef
degradation by providing funding for research into the likely biophysical
and socio-economic consequences of the loss of coral reefs as a
functioning ecosystem.

Develop remedial options by providing funding for research into the

© Copyright Photographer
© Nick Hill feasibility and use of techniques to a. artificially raise the pH levels of
tropical coastal waters to mitigate the effect of ocean acidification on
Saving coral reefs as a reef organisms and b. shade or otherwise cool reefs to prevent
bleaching.
functional ecosystem
long-- term mitigation by funding research into cryogenic
Support long
Reduce emissions to stabilise atmospheric CO2
preservation of coral reef species and the establishment of a global
concentrations and once stabilised, reduce atmospheric
coral repository to store reef biota until favourable conditions return.
CO2 concentrations to below 350 ppm (ideally <320 ppm)
through the use of carbon dioxide removal methods,
Plan for the socioeconomic consequences of coral reef collapse
namely:
such as:
 Enhancement of carbon sinks through
 Reduced coastal protection and increased coastal flooding;
management of land-based and aquatic
 Poverty and food security issues resulting from lost livelihoods
ecosystems;
and marine food resources;
 Direct engineered capture of atmospheric CO2
 Human population migration away from coasts, and effects on
using safe and reliable techniques;
associated environments;
 Fast-track research and development for the
 Overfishing of remaining marine resources in coastal waters;
production of reliable and cost-efficient CO2
 Effects on trade and markets – loss of small-scale fisheries;
capture techniques.
 Large-scale loss of marine biodiversity;
 Reduce or eliminate all other anthropogenic
 Any effects on associated marine ecosystems and biota –
impacts on coral reef ecosystems to maximize
estuaries, mangroves, seagrass beds, deep or pelagic waters,
reef resilience against the effects of climate
marine mammals, reptiles and seabirds.
change (CC).
© Copyright Photographer
 Protect and manage all remote and near pristine
coral reef systems to minimize non-CC impacts.

References: (1) Veron, J.E.N. et al. 2009. The coral reef crisis: the critical importance
of <350ppm C02. Mar. Poll. Bull. 58: 1428-1436 (2) Moberg, F. and Folke, C. 1999.
Ecological Economics 29: 215-233. (3) Allsopp, M. et al. 2009. State of the World’s
Oceans. Springer, Dordrecht. (4) Wilkinson, C. 2008. Status of Coral Reefs of the
World: 2008. Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network and Reef and Rainforest Research
Centre, Townsville. (5) Cheung, W.W.L. et al., 2009. Large-scale redistribution of
maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change. Global
Change Biology (6) Burke, L. and Maidens, J. 2004. Reefs at Risk in the Caribbean.
World Resources Institute, Washington D.C.

More Information
For more information on this subject please contact Dr Simon Harding
(simon.harding@ioz.sc.uk) or visit the ZSL website ( www.zsl.org/
© Heather Koldeway
conservation/climate-change ). 