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o market penetration and sales FC_PHEV10_Car 4,858 3,402 1,938 2,186 1,026 382
model availability o Value of refueling and recharging convenience
FC_PHEV20_Car 8,897 6,389 3,648 3,997 1,911 733 use parameters that are calibrated based on consensus estimates from
o vehicle stock FC_PHEV40_Car 15,981 11,981 6,970 7,158 3,402 1,380 previous studies, theory, and assumptions technology risk o V2G
EV_Car 48,950 31,548 20,771 22,400 10,060 4,410 Market segment data
o use of gasoline, diesel, hydrogen and electricity battery replacement cost Vehicle Sales and Fuel Use, Base Case
SI_PHEV10_Trk 6,256 4,359 2,530 2,950 1,429 534 include a considerably wide but expandable range of vehicle and Model Calibration
o tailpipe CO2 emission SI_PHEV20_Trk 11,385 7,989 4,625 5,230 2,529 1,004
consumer attributes acceleration o Early adopters
EIA/AEO 2008 Ref Updated MA3T Projection
o fuel and recharge availability SI_PHEV40_Trk 20,200 15,014 8,877 9,387 4,575 1,884 25 10 Home or work recharging
FC_PHEV10_Trk 6,665 4,551 2,712 3,016 1,454 558 14 cargo space SI P10 Others o
o experience-determined vehicle price
consider daily VMT distribution and driver variation 14
SI HEV Car SI P10
FC_PHEV20_Trk 12,278 8,608 5,168 5,577 2,701 1,067 12 towing 9 o Driver and driving distributions
FC_PHEV40_Trk 22,293 16,223 9,925 10,041 4,833 1,976
12
LTK LTK
SI_HEV
50 engine vehicles
SI_PHEV40
0 0 0
(MPGGE)
Electricity Consumption
CI_Conv_Car 24,637 24,408 25,450 25,055 25,118 25,420 CI_Conv_Car 37.0 38.4 45.0 42.6 46.1 53.5 $15 i 6 Other Other 120 electricity
technology type is a function of a price Car &
(billion kWh/year)
h consumption is
SI s
p
sensitivity parameter βjkl and
1
CI_HEV_Car 31,045 29,203 28,632 28,826 26,714 25,742 CI_HEV_Car 54.9 56.6 67.7 66.4 75.8 93.9 $10 EV LTK kWh, according
80 to DOE/EIA EV LTK
SI_PHEV10_Car 31,416 28,351 26,951 27,421 24,856 23,912 SI_PHEV10_Car 53.3 56.0 63.8 63.1 72.0 88.4 generalized cost cijkl. i| jkl 3 20 CI EV Car Base Total 8 Mareket Performance by Adopter
SI_PHEV20_Car 36,814 32,396 29,248 29,917 26,070 24,389 SI_PHEV20_Car 53.1 55.4 63.7 62.8 71.9 88.6 $5 i 60 EV Car
Market Penetration
SI_Conv_Trk 24,364 24,338 26,282 24,305 24,792 25,559 SI_Conv_Trk 24.1 26.1 30.2 31.5 32.4 37.5 9 LTK Where the Market Goes
probability density
0.018 0.025 100% Availability 10 PHEVSuccess PHEVSuccess
SI_PHEV10_Trk SI_PHEV10_Trk
6 01_NENG
37,837 33,394 30,787 31,698 27,923 26,112 37.2 39.5 43.7 43.6 49.2 57.8 0.016 40 mile CD range w/ ARRA w/o ARRA
1 0%
Average Driver X = Γ(1.90, 23.20) 80% 8 1 LM likelihood
probability density
0.020 5
SI_PHEV20_Trk 45,649 38,939 34,032 35,204 29,616 26,842 SI_PHEV20_Trk 36.9 39.2 43.3 43.3 49.0 57.6 0.014
PHEVSuccess SI Conv 02_MATL
LM Sales
0.012 0.015 4
SI_PHEV40_Trk 59,100 49,711 40,539 41,665 32,781 28,196 SI_PHEV40_Trk 36.3 38.3 42.5 42.4 48.2 57.2 60% Stock 6 Car 03_ENCL
H2_Conv_Trk H2_Conv_Trk
0.01 0.010 Frequent Driver X = Γ(1.80, 43.05) Base w/ 0 0
33,024 32,010 32,104 33,024 32,010 32,104 20.9 24.4 27.8 20.9 24.4 27.8 mostly electricity, 40%
3 04_WNCL
0.5 -5%
0.008 Base Stock 4 ARRA 2005 2020 2035 2050 2005 2020 2035 2050
FC_HEV_Trk 47,656 40,225 36,057 46,655 38,859 34,505 FC_HEV_Trk 47.2 54.7 58.1 47.2 54.7 58.1 little gasoline 0.005 2 05_SATL
0.006 Base w/o EM Sales
FC_PHEV10_Trk FC_PHEV10_Trk 20% 2
50,350 41,736 36,438 44,877 37,091 33,207 47.9 55.1 57.6 47.9 55.1 57.6 0.004 gasoline and 0.000 1 ARRA 06_ESCL
FC_PHEV20_Trk FC_PHEV20_Trk electricity, Base Availability EA Sales
59,082 48,120 40,335 49,031 39,259 34,183 47.3 54.4 56.9 47.3 54.4 56.9 0.002 0 50 100 150 200 250 0% 0 07_WSCL 0 -10%
battery fully 0
FC_PHEV40_Trk 74,907 60,010 47,846 56,528 42,924 35,921 FC_PHEV40_Trk 45.9 53.0 55.5 45.9 53.0 55.5 0 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 08_MNTN
EV_Trk 127,311 86,852 67,202 70,829 43,305 31,080 EV_Trk 391.7 364.1 345.6 340.2 295.5 255.4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
X = Daily Vehicle Usage (mile) 2005 2020 2035 2050 2010 2015 2020
09_PCFC
Daily Vehcle-miles-traveled