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Monthly Update
February 4, 2011
Index Performance as on 31 January 2011
Return (%) Pharma Pill
1Months 3Months 6Months 1Year
Nifty -10.3 -10.0 1.2 12.4 Summary
Sensex -10.6 -9.9 1.2 12.1
BSE Healthcare -7.4 -4.9 10.9 27.6 January saw majority of pharma companies declaring Q3FY11 results.
While most companies registered sound sales growth YoY, EBITDA
Stocks Performance margins for most of them remained under pressure. This was mainly on
Return (%) Mcap account of adverse currency fluctuation as well as a rise in staff and R&D
Company 1month 3month 6month 1year 31-Jan costs. Cost pressure was somewhat severe for smaller players like
Sun Pharma -9 5 24 50 45629 Unichem, Ipca and Torrent. In terms of sales, while companies like Sun
Dr Reddy's Labs -4 -2 20 45 27489 and Opto saw robust growth on account of inorganic growth, majority of
Cipla -10 -6 2 5 26676 big players like Glenmark, Lupin, Cadila, Sun and smaller players like
Ranbaxy Labs -7 -6 22 21 22976 Torrent and surprisingly Alembic registered good growth in domestic
Glaxosmit Pharma -2 2 13 50 19304 formulations, which normally are subdued in Q3. On the US generic
Lupin -11 -3 13 49 18852 front, Lupin and Glenmark were negative surprises but these players
Cadila Health. 7 18 30 73 16862 registered robust growth in the ex-US markets. Thus, they made good
Piramal Health -6 -8 -9 20 9189 the US slowdown. However, companies having a German presence like
Divi's Lab. -2 -8 -15 6 8433 Dr Reddy’s and Biocon continued to bleed in that market on account of
Glenmark Pharma. -13 -10 14 27 8288 the 16% rebate proposed by the government for three years.
Biocon -16 -15 13 30 6998
Aurobindo Pharma -9 1 22 48 6910 On the regulatory front, there were eight final approvals and four
Torrent Pharma. 1 5 3 31 4913 tentative approvals from the USFDA. Aurobindo and Dr Reddy’s
Opto Circuits -5 -13 -9 17 4574 Laboratories have received tentative approvals for two drugs each. Other
Ipca Labs. -10 -7 8 35 3789 companies like Alembic, Glenmark Pharma, Lupin, Natco, Torrent and Dr
Jubilant Life -19 -28 -37 -25 3580 Reddy’s received final approval for one drug each while Cadila
Strides Arcolab -7 -1 30 110 2393 Healthcare got the nod for two drugs. In a first of its kind of compulsory
Orchid Chemicals 1 3 58 85 2071
licensing challenge, Natco Pharma has sought licensing from Pfizer and
FDC -9 -3 17 41 1882
Bayer to launch their patented products for HIV and cancer, respectively,
under the cover of compulsory licensing. On the R&D front, we saw
Unichem Labs. -17 -12 in-nmimsmum
15 46 1796
ISIEmergingMarketsPDF from Biocon reportingondiscouraging
122.170.126.130 results for
2011-02-17 04:09:50 EST.itsDownloadPDF.
diabetic drug in phase III
Dishman Pharma. -13 -27 -39 -39 1077
trials. During the month, Cadila formed a new JV with Bayer Healthcare
J B Chem & Pharm -17 -3 20 94 993
to market its products from niche categories. Glenmark received an
Alembic 2 -8 19 52 914
unfavourable verdict from a US jury regarding anti-hypertensive drug
Natco Pharma -10 4 43 149 789
Tarka, which asked the company to stop sales of Tarka and also slapped
Elder Pharma 1 -6 15 25 767
a | 70-crore penalty to be payable to Abbott. During the month, the
Indoco Remedies -10 -12 8 36 543
Indian patent office denied patent protection to Abbott’s HIV drug Kaletra
Mcap in | crore
and allowed the generic sale of this product by Cipla and Matrix.
Price movement
Regulatory approvals
8000 25000
7000
20000 Aurobindo gets USFDA nod for two drugs
6000
5000 15000
4000 Aurobindo Pharma has received tentative approval from the USFDA to
3000 10000 manufacture and market Levofloxacin tablets of 250 mg, 500 mg, 750
2000 mg. Levofloxacin tablets are indicated for the treatment of adults with
5000
1000 mild, moderate and severe infections caused by susceptible strains of
0 0
the designated micro organisms such as pneumonia, bacterial sinusitis,
Aug-10
Oct-10
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Dec-10
etc. The product has a market size of nearly US$1.45 billion for the 12
months ending September 2010 according to IMS.
BSE Healthcare Sensex
It received tentative approval from the USFDA to manufacture and
Analyst’s name market Famciclovir tablets of 125 mg, 250 mg and 500 mg. Famciclovir
Siddhant Khandekar Tablets 125 mg, 250 mg and 500 mg are the generic versions of Novartis
siddhant.khandekar@icicisecurities.com Pharmaceuticals Corp’s Famvir Tablets of 125 mg, 250 mg and 500 mg. It
Krishna Kiran Konduri is indicated for the treatment of recurrent mucocutaneous herpes
krishna.konduri@icicisecurities.com simplex infections in HIV-infected patients and suppression of recurrent
genital herpes in immuno-competent patients. The product has a market
Cadila Healthcare's US arm has got tentative approval from the USFDA
for hypertension drug Irbesartan tablets. The company has got approvals
for tablets of 75 mg, 150 mg and 300 mg strengths. The patent for the
drug will expire in March 2012. Currently, the drug is marketed by Bristol-
Myers Squibb and Sanofi-Aventis under different brand names with
annual sales of $1.3 billion and $2.1 billion, respectively.
Financial Performance
Ipca's Q3FY11 sales increased 18% YoY to | 466.4 crore backed by 33%
rise in the export formulation business and almost 17% growth in
domestic branded formulations. EBITDA margins declined ~330 bps YoY
Increase in employees cost and cost related to new
as sales & marketing expenses and expenses related to newly joined
employee’s dragged overall margins
employees went up. Net profit increased 10% to | 63.9 crore. The export
formulations segment is likely to continue its growth momentum, going
forward. Incremental sales from newly added medical representatives
will also support growth in sales from H2FY12E onwards. However,
EBITDA margins will continue to be under pressure for at least two or
three quarters.
Lupin’s net sales grew 16.9% YoY to | 1467.2 crore for Q3FY11 backed
by formulations sales growth in the US, Europe and Japan. EBITDA
margins declined 90 bps to 19.7%. This was on the back of an increase in
Forex loss and higher R&D cost dragged margins R&D cost, forex loss of | 17 crore and rise in employee expenses due to
new recruitment at the Indore SEZ and also due to addition of ~160
medical representatives. However, net profit was up 39.5% to | 224.1
crore on the back of lower tax provision.
Opto Circuits has posted a net profit after minority interest of | 95.67
crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2010 as compared to | 65.68
crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2009, a rise of 45.67%. Total
income has increased 70.59% to | 428.12 crore. The numbers are not
comparable as the company acquired majority stake in US based Cardiac
Science in December. On a like-to-like basis sales grew ~37% YoY.
Sun Pharma reported ~57% growth in net sales to | 1603 crore driven
by consolidation of Israel-based Taro Pharma’s accounts. Taro clocked
~| 459 crore sales during the quarter. Without Taro, on a like to like
basis the sales growth was just ~11%. This was mainly on account of
higher base of Q3FY10 on account of sales from anti-ulcerant Protonix,
which it stopped in the current fiscal due to litigation issues. Due to this
Excluding sales from Taro, the base business was up just consolidation, EBIDTA margins declined by ~660 bps and PAT also grew
~ 11% by just ~3% YoY to | 350 crore. Another US subsidiary Caraco reported
~20% de-growth in sales to | 180 crore on account of continuance of
production stoppage due to USFDA related issues. The company does
not expect the restart of production in Q4FY11. Sales from Indian
branded formulations grew 20% to | 640 crore driven by nine product
launches and further consolidation in at least six therapeutic categories
where Sun is the market leader.
IP Issues
blockbuster drug that clocked revenues worth $3.4 billion only in the US
market for the year ending December 31, 2009, according to data of
market research firm IMS. The product is among the largest selling
diabetic drugs globally and the eighth largest selling prescription drug in
any therapeutic segment in the US market. Takeda has already resolved
patent litigation with eleven generic companies chasing the diabetes
drug opportunity in the US market early this year.
Dr Reddy’s Laboratories
ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-nmimsmum from 122.170.126.130 has announced
on 2011-02-17 thatDownloadPDF.
04:09:50 EST. a US District Court of New
Jersey has filed a stipulation and order lifting an earlier motion for
preliminary injunction and clearing the sale of Dr Reddy’s generic
product version of Allegra D24 (fexofenadine
hydrochloride/pseudoephedrine hydrochloride 180 mg/240 mg extended
release tablet), which was approved by the FDA on March 16, 2010. In
addition, plaintiffs’ Sanofi Aventis and Albany Molecular Research have
been required to post a security with the court, an amount of US$40
million towards the possibility that the injunction had been wrongfully
granted. Having been excluded from launching the generic product since
the June 2010 hearing, Dr Reddy’s intends to pursue an award of this
security.
Lupin and its subsidiary Lupin Pharmaceuticals Inc have settled all
litigation with Dainippon Sumitobo Pharma Co arm Sunovion
Pharmaceuticals Inc over Lunesta Eszopiclone tablets. Lupin said the
Plans to launch Lunesta in November 2013
settlement entitled the company to sell its generic version of Lunesta
under a license from November 30, 2013. Sales of Lunesta, which is used
to treat insomnia (Sleeping disorder), in US in the 12 months ended
September 2010, were at $787 million.
Natco Pharma seeks voluntary licenses for Pfizer’s HIV drug and
Bayer’s Cancer drug
Natco Pharma has sought a voluntary licence from Pfizer to make and
sell copies of its HIV medicine in India, a first step to a provision that
permits firms to legally make patented drugs of other companies. Natco
sent a notice to Pfizer in November saying Pfizer's drug was too
expensive for HIV patients in India, and that Natco can sell its own
product at about one-fifth the price. This is the first step in what is known
in pharma industry as compulsory licensing (CL), a provision that allows
generic drug makers to make and sell low-cost version of a patented
drug under certain conditions. Pfizer has time till May to reply. Pfizer's
HIV drug maraviroc sold under the brand Celsentri, costs about | 65,000
for a month dosage, said Natco in its notice to the world's largest
drugmaker. The Indian company has said it can make a copy that will
cost | 15,000 a month to HIV patients.
Bayer sues Sun Pharma for generic oral contraceptive YAZ drug
Product Launches
Natco’s US-based arm K&C Pharmacy has exited from a local drugs retail
chain, Nick's Drugs based in New Jersey. Natco Pharma holds 75% stake
in K&C Pharmacy. The company does not see any significant effect on
the revenues and profitability. Nick's Drugs revenues were predominantly
guided by Medicaid reimbursements from the State of New Jersey,
Natco is currently left with only one pharma store
however of-late there have been significant reductions in the
reimbursements because of budgetary restrictions. After the sale, Natco
now owns and operates only one pharma store 'SaveMart Pharmacy',
through its wholly owned subsidiary Natco Pharma Inc in Lancaster.
R & D Developments
Biocon has said that initial data from late-stage clinical trials on its
experimental oral insulin drug for diabetes did not meet the desired
results but said it was committed to the global development of the drug.
In the final-stage trials being conducted in India, IN-105 did not meet its
primary target of lowering HbA1c levels, or a haemoglobin count, in
patients with type 2 diabetes. The firm was further assessing the data
from the trial, Biocon said, adding that the drug had met secondary
targets on efficacy and safety. The company plans to start looking for a
global pharmaceutical partner to continue the development of the drug.
ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-nmimsmum from 122.170.126.130 on 2011-02-17 04:09:50 EST. DownloadPDF.
Dr Reddy’s enters into research collaboration with UK based Argenta
Tie Ups
Strides Arcolab has struck a deal with Pfizer to sell 16 of its approved
abbreviated new drug approval (ANDAs) and six filed ANDAs. These 22
filings were under an equal joint venture between Strides and US-based
Nasdaq listed pharmaceutical company Akorn, which was formed in
2005. Strides will be entitled to $28.2 million in cash as its share of the
consideration in addition to entering into supply agreement with Pfizer
for manufacture and supply of these products. With this new pact Strides
now has 66 various drugs, which will be marketed by Pfizer across the
globe. Strides, early this year, had struck a deal with Pfizer for 44
injectables, mostly in cancer care.
Other developments
Ranbaxy President and CFO Omesh Sethi has resigned on January 25.
The company did not give a reason for the departure. The financial
chief’s resignation is the second exit by a senior Ranbaxy executive in
five months, after former Chief Executive Officer Atul Sobti quit in
August. Sethi, who joined the company in 1989, has made a “significant
ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-nmimsmum from 122.170.126.130 on 2011-02-17 04:09:50 EST. DownloadPDF.
contribution” to improve its financial performance and also was involved
in mergers and acquisitions.
Dishman Sales (| Cr) EPS (|) PE(x) EV/E (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code DISHPHA CMP 176 FY09 1062.4 18.2 9.7 8.0 20.9 13.6
Target 168 FY10 915.4 14.6 12.1 10.5 15.0 9.1
MCap 1420.3 Upside (%) -5 FY11E 911.0 15.1 11.6 10.7 13.8 7.4
FY12E 1044.0 16.8 10.5 8.4 13.8 9.6
IPCA Labs Sales (| Cr) EPS (|) PE(x) EV/E (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code IPCLAB CMP 310 FY10 1559.6 16.4 18.9 13.4 23.7 20.5
Target 325 FY11E 1832.7 19.9 15.6 11.6 23.2 20.3
MCap 3896.0 Upside (%) 5 FY12E 2171.8 21.4 14.5 9.6 20.6 22.1
FY13E 2595.8 29.5 10.5 7.2 22.6 24.8
Piramal Health Sales (| Cr) EPS (|) PE(x) EV/E (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code NICPIR CMP 472
Target NA FY09 3281.1 15.1 31.2 19.4 24.0 17.7
MCap 10032.0 Upside (%) NA FY10 3671.1 23.1 20.5 15.2 28.3 18.8
Sun Pharma Sales (| Cr) EPS (|) PE(x) EV/E (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code SUNPHA CMP 436 FY09 4271.4 17.6 24.8 23.2 25.7 28.3
Target 416 FY10 4019.8 13.0 33.4 31.0 17.7 19.5
MCap 44758.6 Upside (%) -5 FY11E 5808.6 16.7 26.1 22.2 19.0 20.3
FY12E 6844.1 17.7 24.7 20.3 17.3 18.1
Glenmark Sales (| Cr) EPS (|) PE(x) EV/E (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-nmimsmum from 122.170.126.130 on 2011-02-17 04:09:50 EST. DownloadPDF.
Idirect Code GLEPHA CMP 290 FY10 2093.0 7.7 42.4 24.4 19.4 16.4
Target 396 FY11E 2484.9 12.2 26.7 17.4 13.9 14.6
MCap 7836.0 Upside (%) 37 FY12E 2986.7 18.2 17.8 12.9 20.7 18.8
FY13E 3454.4 21.7 14.9 10.9 20.6 20.1
Lupin Sales (| Cr) EPS (|) PE(x) EV/E (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code LUPIN CMP 420 FY10 2500.7 12.2 23.7 15.5 14.1 14.8
Target 530 FY11E 2986.0 18.2 15.9 12.0 17.7 16.5
MCap 18472.0 Upside (%) 26 FY12E 3485.7 19.9 14.6 10.4 16.8 17.1
FY13E 4118.4 23.3 12.4 9.1 17.0 18.3
Unichem Labs Sales (| Cr) EPS (|) PE(x) EV/E (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code UNILAB CMP 196 FY10 765.5 14.7 13.3 9.5 23.3 25.7
Target 227 FY11E 843.4 12.7 15.4 9.0 16.9 20.4
MCap 1768 Upside (%) 16 FY12E 993.3 18.3 10.7 6.5 20.6 24.7
FY13E 1149.1 20.6 9.5 6.0 19.5 24.7
Indoco Remedies Sales (| Cr) EPS (|) PE(x) EV/E (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code INDREM CMP 460 FY10 398.3 34.4 13.4 11.2 13.6 11.5
Target 511 FY11E 486.9 42.0 11.0 8.4 14.6 12.9
MCap 565.0 Upside (%) 11 FY12E 581.1 48.7 9.4 6.4 14.9 15.6
FY13E 712.6 63.9 7.2 5.3 16.7 17.9
Opto Circuits Sales (| cr) EPS (|) PE(x) EV/E (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
Idirect Code OPTCIR CMP 260 FY09 818.5 22.2 11.7 20.1 26.1 19.8
Target 329 FY10 1077.6 14.2 18.3 13.3 26.0 20.4
Mcap (| cr) 4765.0 % Upside 27% FY11E 1558.6 18.3 14.2 12.3 20.1 17.0
FY12E 2267.7 21.9 11.9 9.9 21.3 18.0
RATING RATIONALE
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as Strong Buy, Buy, Add, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the
notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
research@icicidirect.com
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research report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to
the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc.
Disclosures:
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