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Notice that we have used no algebra for arriving at this result.1 The
important thing to remember about this very simple result is that the
point of valuation is one period before the point in time when the
first cash flow occurs. The economic intuition is obvious: our
deposit has to have been in the bank for one period before any
interest on it can be accrued and paid.
1
The result does have both an origin and a foundation in algebra:
C C C
PV ( $C every period in perpetuity )= + + +... ∞
(1 + r ) (1 + r ) 2 (1 + r ) 3
is an infinite geometric progression that converges for r > 0 . The formula for
sum of an infinite geometric progression is Σka*fk = a/(1 – f) where a is the first
term of the series, f (<1) is the factor by which terms in the series increase, and
k is an index that runs from 0 to ∞. In our case, the first term is a = C/(1+r), and
the factor by which the terms increase is f = 1/(1+r). Substituting these in the
formula, we get the same result.
In order to work out the present value of an annuity that goes on for
n periods, we shall represent it as difference between two
perpetuities: one starting at t=1 and the other at t=n+1. Because
both streams are perpetuities, each has a value of C/r. Now, it is a
cardinal principle of financial economics that two cash flows
cannot be compared with, equated to, added to, or subtracted
from, one another unless they are evaluated at the same point in
time. Therefore, in order to work out the present value of an
annuity, we shall have to make sure that the two perpetuities that it
represents the difference between, are evaluated at the same point in
time. Since the first perpetuity starts at t=1, its value at t=0 is C/r.
the second perpetuity has a value of C/r one period before its first
cash flow, or t=n. Its value at t=0 is C/r multiplied by the n-period
1
discount factor, DF n ≡ . Taking the difference between the
(1 + r ) n
two, we get that the present value of an annuity is:2
PV ( $C every period for n periods ) = C 1 − 1
r (1 + r ) n
2
Again, here we motivated this formula entirely on the basis of financial
economics. Just as the perpetuity formula is a sum of an infinite geometric
progression, the annuity formula is a sum of a finite geometric progression.
The formula for sum of a finite geometric progression is Σka*fk = a (1– fn+1) /(1 –
f) where a is the first term of the series, f (≠1) is the factor by which terms in the
series increase, and k is an index that runs from 0 to n. In our case, the first term
is a = C/(1+r), and the factor by which the terms increase is f = 1/(1+r).
Substituting these in the formula, we get the same result.
S k = S k −1 (1 + g ) for k = 2, 3, .... n.
We are given the task of computing the present value, that is value
on December 31, 2010, of your future savings. One way in which it
is possible to evaluate the stream of your savings is to use our
fundamental valuation equation, which calls for evaluating the
present value of each of the 30 items in the stream, and then adding
them up. Thus, denoting the present value of the savings as V, we
get:
S 0 (1 + g ) S 0 (1 + g ) 2 S 0 (1 + g ) n
V = + +.......+ .
(1 + r ) (1 + r ) 2 (1 + r ) n
(r − g )
q≡
(1 + g )
We can now represent the present value, V, in terms of S 0 and q
as:
S 0 (1 + g ) S 0 (1 + g ) 2 S 0 (1 + g ) n
V = + +.......+
(1 + r ) (1 + r ) 2 (1 + r ) n
S0 S0 S0
= + +.......+ .
(1 + q ) (1 + q ) 2
(1 + q ) n
S0 1
V = 1 − .
q (1 + q ) n
S1 1 + g n
V = 1 −
r − g 1 + r
S1 1 + g n
V = 1 −
r − g 1 + r
10600 1.06 30
= 1 −
0.12 − 0.06 112.
= $142 ,798 .65
This amount represents the present value of your savings, that is the
value of your savings at t=0, which we defined to be December 31,
2007. If you want to find out how much you will have in your bank
when you retire on December 31, 2037, you need to multiply this by
1.1230 to get $4,278,236.13.
(b): start earning only upon graduation, with your post-MBA job
starting on September 1, 2013.
For computational simplicity, assume that you are paid your annual
salary in a lump sum at the end of each working year. You plan to
retire on August 31, 2043 whether or not you go for an MBA in
2011. For the purposes of this problem you find it reasonable to
assume that the term structure is flat at 5%.
(i): Assuming that your income remains constant over time with
or without an MBA, that your starting salary after MBA is
$144,000, and that you save a constant 15% of your
income over your working life, work out the amount you
would have saved on retirement (a) if you go for an MBA,
and (b) if you do not go for an MBA.
(ii): Answer (i) above assuming that your income grows at the
rate of 4.5% per year without an MBA, and 6.75% a year
with an MBA.