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3Q10
ECONOMY BEAT ON THE STREET
“In the coming months, companies
Singapore’s recession is long over - the Singapore economy grew 18.8% 18 in 2Q 2010,
resulting in official estimates for the growth in 2010 to be raised for the third time by should remain keen in securing space
the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). As of August, the MTI expected Singapore’s while rents are still attractive. Companies
economy to grow by 13% to 15% for the whole of 2010. However, it is unlikely that whose leases are expiring should also be
economic forecast will be further raised. While overall economic sentiments remain keen to secure newer and larger space to
positive, it is increasingly cautious in light of wider risks from the European sovereign
debt crisis and a possible double dip in the U.S. economy. Advanced estimates by cater for expansion. ” – Adrian Toh,
MTI also showed the economy grew 10.3% in 3Q10, a healthy but slowed economic Associate Director of Commercial
growth. The Consensus Economics predicted that the Singapore economy will grow Transactions Services, Singapore.
by 14% in 2010 and 5% in 2011.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2009 2010F 2011F
OVERVIEW
GDP Growth -1.3% 14% 5.0%
The Singapore office market gathered the best momentum in 3Q10 10, since the last CPI Growth 0.6% 2.5% 2.0%
economic recession from 2H 2008. The rental recovery, led by prime office space, has
developed from encouraging signs of turnaround in 2Q10 to a certainty in 3Q 10. Unemployment 2.3% 2.2% -
Meanwhile, this recovery in 3Q 10 is incremental, judging from a moderate overall qoq SIBOR 0.69% 0.50% -
increase of 6.4% for prime offices. Compared to 1H 07 where prime office rents
escalated by at least 15% per quarter, this recovery seems encouraging and
sustainable. Source: Ministry of Trade & Industry, Monetary
Authority of Singapore, IMA Asia
The rental recovery was driven by rapid corporate expansions, particularly MARKET FORECAST
international firms which are either swelling with new business units or setting up
regional headquarters in Singapore. For example, Julius Baer, the Swiss private bank, ABSORPTON: Estimated positive
is setting up a dual head office in Singapore as part of a drive to make Asia its second
home and has pre-committed space at Asia Square Tower 1. Given rents are way net absorption averaging about
attractive compared to the peak in 2007, this encouraged several financial institutions 500,000 sq ft per quarter in 4Q10 to
to pre-commit in prime office projects which are undergoing construction.
construction For 1Q11 as companies actively pre-
example, DBS has announced plans to spend $1.5 billion, 80% of which will be on commit for expansions.
office rental, for the next 10 years, while Maybank opened an Islamic banking hub in
Singapore. With the race for prime office space, prime office vacancy fell by 1.1 CONSTRUCTION: Limited office
percentage points in 3Q 10 so that occupancies rose from 95.7% in 2Q10 2 to 96.8% in constructions as hardly any new office
3Q10. For the first 3 quarters of 2010, occupancy of prime office space grew by 4.2%, development plans were made in
underpinned by a significant rise in demand, amid substantial new supply.
supply 2008 and 2009.
The recovery in the office property market went beyond an increased occupier RENTAL RATES: Rents expected
demand. The quarter saw major office en bloc deals – DBS Towers 1&2 1 sold for about to increase by about 5% per quarter in
$980 psf and Chevron House, sold for about $2,083 psf, reflecting investor interest for
4Q10 and 1H11.
prime office buildings while prices are still attractive. Nevertheless, the building was
purchased for $2,780 psf of NLA by Goldman Sachs in 2007.
GRADE A OVERALL RENTAL VS.
VACANCY RATES
OUTLOOK
S$/sq ft/mth
18 9%
From 4Q10 to 1H11, office rents are expected to continue to rise by about 5% per 16 8%
recovery and overall business costs are attractive. On one hand, demand for prime 10 5%
office space will be strong but new potential supply remains limited as the lacklustre 8 4%
years in 2008 and 2009 saw limited office development plans kicked off.
off 6 3%
4 2%
international companies and smaller firms are expanding. This will provide support for 0 0%
rents of suburban office space to grow by at least 3% qoq in 4Q 10 to 1H 11. 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10
Rent Vacancy
MARKET/ SUBMARKET INVENTORY RATE CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS ABSORPTION Local Currency Euro US $
Raffles Place (Grade A) 10,045,378 2.3% 704,712 630,765 428,000 8.50 4.72 5.48
City Hall/Marina Centre (Grade A) 5,907,355 2.1% 0 0 28,000 7.55 4.19 4.87
Orchard Road (Grade A) 2,560,673 2.8% 49,191 0 14,000 7.22 4.29 4.65
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
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*Market terms & definitions based on BOMA and NAIOP standards.
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