U.S. DOLLAR VS. INDIAN RUPEE

Resistance : 45.35/36, 45.44/45 Daily Trend : UP

Support : 45.12/14, 45.00/02 Weekly Trend : SIDE/UP
The Indian rupee fell to its lowest in more than two weeks on Tuesday as worries
about the economic impact of Japan's earthquake on growth and demand dragged
local shares, with weak Asian currencies also weighing. The Indian Rupee opened
at 45.2300/2400 per dollar, 16 paise weaker than its closing at 45.0700. The Indian
Rupee is trading at 45.2300-2600 per dollar. The risk aversion is likely to stay for a
while until the situation in Japan completely clarifies itself one way or the other. The
rupee is likely to weaken further in the short-term. 

The Local Shares shed 1.3 percent on Tuesday, with financials leading the decline,
as Asian markets tumbled on escalating crisis at quake-stricken Japan. 

TRADING STRATEGY :USD/INR Buy @ 45.2150 SL @ 45.1500, TP @ 45.3300.

EURO VS. U.S. DOLLAR

Resistance : 1.3945/50, 1.3985/90 Daily Trend : DOWN

Support : 1.3875/80, 1.3825/30 Weekly Trend : SIDE/DOWN
The euro is largely sidelined this morning as focus remains on Japan and the
aftermath of last Friday’s earthquake and tsunami. Overnight, ECB policymaker
Ewald Nowotny affirmed the central bank’s “strong vigilance” stance against
inflation despite the added economic uncertainty from Japan. Last week saw the
euro climb above $1.4000 as rising oil prices fanned inflation concerns before
resurfacing fiscal worries sent the single currency lower. The euro is recovering
after today’s Eurozone industrial output report at +0.3% in January provides further
evidence that expansion continues. Given this, the euro is likely to be supported
and set for further gains in the near term as mounting inflation may prompt the ECB
to raise interest rates. 

TRADING STRATEGY :EURUSD Sell @ 1.3925 SL 1.3940, TP 1.3885.

BRITISH POUND VS. U.S. DOLLAR

Resistance : 1.6125/30, 1.6180/85 Daily Trend : DOWN

Support : 1.6045/50, 1.6015/20 Weekly Trend : SIDE/DOWN
Sterling starts slightly weaker than last week as expectations for rate increases
waned. The BoE left rates unchanged last week, and BoE Governor Mervyn King
said that governments should tackle instabilities in the global economy – hinting
that rates will not be increasing any time soon. Futures contracts show that the
market is now expecting a quarter point increase in rates for August and December
versus July and November as previously expected, putting selling pressure on the
pound. This week’s key read will be housing prices, which are expected at 2.3%,
down from the previous month’s reading of 3.8%.

TRADING STRATEGY :GBPUSD Sell @ 1.6095 SL 1.6115, TP 1.6050.

U.S. DOLLAR VS. JAPANESE YEN

 Resistance : 81.95/82.00, 82.35/40 Daily Trend : DOWN
Support : 81.25/30, 80.85/90 Weekly Trend : SIDE/DOWN
Despite the violent swings in USDJPY over the session, the pair is essentially
trading where it closed on Friday. As Japan grapples with its recovery efforts and
an ongoing nuclear threat, the BoJ has agreed to double its asset purchase
program to ¥10 trillion and it added emergency liquidity of ¥21trillion (it added
¥15bn today and pledged to add another ¥6bn tomorrow) into money markets to
support financial institutions. The actions by the BoJ should go a long way towards
flooding the system with liquidity and shoring up confidence. 

TRADING STRATEGY :USD/JPY Sell 81.65, SL @ 81.85, TP @ 81.30.

U.S. DOLLAR VS. SWISS FRANC

Resistance : 0.9250/55, 0.9285/90 Daily Trend : DOWN

Support : 0.9175/80, 0.9125/30 Weekly Trend : SIDE/DOWN
The latest break to fresh record lows by 0.9200 is certainly concerning and
threatens our longer-term recovery outlook. Still, we do not see setbacks extending
much further and continue to favor the formation of some form of a material base
over the coming weeks for an eventual break back above parity. Look for a break
and close back above 0.9370 to confirm outlook and accelerate gains. A break and
close back below 0.9200 delays. 

TRADING STRATEGY :USD/CHF Sell 0.9235 SL @ 0.9250 TP @ 0.9185.

 
 graph gallery   

USD/INR
EUR/USD

GBP/USD
USD/JPY

USD/CHF