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2010 global private

equity watch
New horizons emerge
April 2010
New horizons emerge

A year ago, there were diverging views on the future of private Leveraged loans used to nance new acquisitions bounced back in
equity (PE). Some contended the model had suffered irreparable the fourth quarter. While Thomson Reuters reports that new issues
damage, while others saw a nimble industry that would recover in the US totaled US$80 billion in 2009, nearly half of that total —
and eventually become stronger than ever. Although 2009 was a US$37 billion — was issued in the fourth quarter, up from just US$14
challenging year, with leverage in short supply, acquisitions and billion in the third quarter and US$21 billion in the fourth quarter of
divestitures down sharply, and fund-raising difcult, the industry 2008. Financing for new acquisitions should increase gradually in
showed resilience in adapting to adverse market conditions. 2010, barring major banks being hit with defaults on government
and commercial debt in Greece and, possibly, Spain.
Globally, PE rms made 1,612 acquisitions1 in 2009, a 36%
decrease from 2008.2 The average size of an acquisition in 2009 Liquidity also returned on the sell side. The recovery of worldwide
was smaller — US$100 million versus US$158 million in 2008 — as stock markets restored the initial public offering (IPO) as a viable exit
total deal value fell 56% to US$95.5 billion. While there were fewer strategy in the US and Asia. PE sponsors brought 53 new companies
buyout deals during 2009, minority investments3 as a percentage to market in 2009, raising proceeds of US$16 billion, compared with
of total acquisitions rose from 45% to 50%, even as the value of such US$11 billion in 2008. Only three of these IPOs occurred in Europe,
transactions fell from US$57.7 billion to US$21.9 billion. while 25 took place in both the Americas and in the Asia-Pacic
region. While trade sales fell sharply last year to US$65 billion from
However, annual data mask the real story of 2009. The long
US$140 billion, they have increased steadily since bottoming out in
retreat that began in the summer of 2007 ended as a comeback
the rst quarter of 2009, as bid-ask spreads between buyers and
that began in the third quarter and gained strength as larger deals
sellers narrowed.
were announced towards year-end. Globally, transactions worth
US$39 billion were announced in the fourth quarter, up from US$24 PE rms continued to focus on preserving portfolio company value
billion in the third quarter, and more than double the US$18 billion as operating excellence replaced nancial engineering. Over the
announced in the fourth quarter of 2008. last few years, larger rms have concentrated on hiring operating
partners and managers to focus on improving their portfolio
Driving this recovery is the renewed willingness of banks to
companies. They have also tapped former executives of global
underwrite debt. Bloomberg reported that global high-yield debt
Fortune 500 and other multinational companies, along with a coterie
issuance nearly tripled last year to US$210 billion, from US$74
of ex-management consultants to serve as senior advisers. These
billion in 2008. PE rms, particularly those in the United States (US),
executives, who have years of strategic and operating experience,
used their share of new issues to replace existing portfolio company
have been invaluable in helping struggling companies streamline
debt, gaining critical debt extensions in the process. The use of newly
operations, improve their working capital, ease their nancial
issued high-yield bonds to renance leveraged loans is expected to
situation and position themselves for growth.
continue through 2010 as interest rates on government bonds are
expected to remain low, causing investors to seek higher yields.

1. 956 acquisitions where the value was disclosed, and 656 where the value was not disclosed.
2. Unless otherwise noted, Dealogic is the source of all acquisition, divestiture and IPO data cited in this report.
3. Acquisitions of less than a 50% ownership stake.
Fund-raising will continue to be a challenge for the next 12 to 18 high-prole secondary sales have been completed. Firms are taking
months. With Preqin reporting that PE rms had US$500 billion advantage of improving markets to make acquisitions, enhance
in uncommitted capital waiting to be deployed at the end of 2009, portfolio company performance, and exit investments in order to
one of the biggest challenges may be nding quality targets. That return funds to limited partners in advance of 2011 fund-raising
said, rms closed US$234.9 billion worth of funds, 60% less than in rounds. All the while they keep a watchful eye on tightening debt
2008.4 As limited partners continue to demand better returns and covenants.
more transparency, competition among general partners will heat
During the rst three months of 2010, global PE rms have
up, even as investors — who sat on the sidelines last year — prepare
announced 358 transactions valued at US$27.0 billion, compared
to commit more capital, according to a recent Preqin study. Mid-sized
with 415 transactions priced at US$17.0 billion for the same period
buyout, distressed debt, secondary, and emerging market funds
in 2009. While the average deal size, where the value was disclosed,
focused on China, India and Brazil may garner increased interest.
for those three months rose to US$157 million from US$70 million
While 2010 should be a better year than 2009 on all fronts, last year, it remains far below the pre-recession high of US$706
regulatory reform is a major uncertainty that could slow the million in the second quarter of 2007. 2010 is looking to be an
industry’s recovery. The European Union’s (EU) proposed directive on intriguing year with global PE activity on the rise.
alternative investment fund managers (AIFM) will dramatically affect
both European and foreign rms operating in the EU. Increased
capital requirements in many markets could adversely affect lending, Kind regards,
as could the “Volcker Rule” in the US, which would force banks to sell
their PE operations and the income streams they provide. Evolving
tax rules in many jurisdictions could affect returns, as decit-ridden
governments seek to increase their tax revenue.
John Harley
In last year’s report, we highlighted the evolution of PE rms from Global Private Equity Leader
their early years as buyers of family businesses to today’s business Ernst & Young
entrepreneurs, renowned for transforming companies and injecting
change capital. As the industry recovers, some PE rms will continue
to diversify into other asset management functions and other
advisory roles, such as capital markets.

In early 2010, valuations are improving, IPOs are encountering


some resistance, leverage is returning in some markets, and some

4. Unless otherwise noted, Preqin is the source of all fund-raising data cited in this report.
About the data
Our report focuses on worldwide acquisition, divestiture and fund-
raising activities of PE rms. Ernst & Young relied on several data
sources in producing this report.
Acquisitions and divestitures: Dealogic is the primary information
source for data on acquisitions, divestitures and IPOs. Deal activity
for various world regions and countries is based on the location
of the target, not that of the buyer or seller. Acquisitions and
divestitures are based on announced deals. Deal value and average
deal size are based on disclosed deals — transactions where a value
was disclosed — while total transactions include all announced deals
including those where the amount paid was not reported. Unless
otherwise indicated, deal value is reported in US dollars. Acquisition
data include minority investments but exclude repurchases, venture
and portfolio company add-ons, which are technically corporate
deals and are discussed separately.

IPOs capture primary offerings only.


Dealogic categorizes regional data as follows:
• Americas includes all nations in North, Central and South
America and the Caribbean

• EMEA comprises all nations in continental Europe, including


Russia and the UK, as well as Africa and the Middle East

• Asia-Pacific includes all Asian nations as well as Australia and


New Zealand

Fund-raising trends: Data on fund-raising comes from Private


Equity Intelligence (Preqin). Except where otherwise noted, these
data reect the total capital raised by funds that were closed in a
given year, and thus include monies actually raised in prior years
in which preliminary closings were held. This report covers all
investment styles except venture funds, including:

• Buyouts • Secondary funds


• Real estate • Balanced
• Infrastructure • Others, such as late stage, mezzanine,
natural resources, special situations and
• Distressed
turnaround funds
• Fund-of-funds

• Expansion/growth equity

Internal rate of return (IRR) data: This information comes from


Preqin and the State Street Private Equity Index, a survey of more
than 1,400 leveraged buyout (LBO), venture and other global PE
funds.

Credit and lending trends: Ernst & Young relied on several sources:
Standard & Poor’s for lending (leverage) multiples; Bloomberg,
Thomson Reuters, Moody’s Investors Service and Credit Suisse for
information on the global syndicated loan markets and the US high-
yield and leveraged loan markets.
Table of contents
2009: private equity turns a corner after a tough year .........................................pg 1

Acquisitions: the smaller is beautiful trend continues ............................................. 4

Sell-side action bounces back as IPOs gain ground................................................ 11

Portfolio companies on the mend ......................................................................... 16

A strong high-yield market fuels global restructuring efforts................................. 17

Fund-raising challenges remain, despite capital surplus ........................................ 18

Emerging markets come into their own ................................................................. 22

Regulatory and tax reform: slow process, wide-ranging impact ............................. 26

2010: outlook for private equity.............................................................................. 30

About Ernst & Young’s Global Private Equity practice ............................................. 33

Key contacts........................................................................................................... 34
2009: private
equity turns a
corner after a Global M&A deal volume: 2000–2009

# of corporate deals 3,195

tough year
2,510
# of PE deals
3,056 1,612

1,723 2,536 39,254 39,023


PE bounced back in the third quarter of 1,464 2,212
1,511 33,575 34,837
2009 after a tough year that saw the value 1,735
29,518 28,750
of global PE deals fall to its lowest level 25,626
24,053
since the doldrums of 2001. According to 23,805
21,436
Dealogic, 1,612 PE deals with a disclosed
value of $95.5 billion were announced in
2009. This represents a 36% decline in
volume and a 56% decline in value from
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2008 levels, and a fraction of the highs
Source: Dealogic
reached in 2007 when there were 3,195 >
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global PE deals valued at $716 billion.  > > > >
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However, PE deal activity bottomed out in


the second quarter and began moving up Quarterly global PE deal volume: 2007–2009
in the second half of the year as the value 1000 # disclosed
of announced transactions rose in both # non-disclosed

emerging and developed world markets, 800


including Brazil, Canada, the US, Germany,
the UK, Australia, China and Japan. These 400 387 370 346
600
results are encouraging, as credit conditions, 392
295
while improving in some areas, continued 293
400 212
to be tight in others, forcing rms to inject 456 173 167 148
437 168
more of their own capital to complete deals. 431
387 366
According to Standard & Poor’s, PE’s equity 200 331 328 274
242 240 253 221
contribution to US deals rose to 46% last
year, the highest level in this decade, up 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
from 39% in 2008 and 33% in 2007. Bank 2007 2008 2009
loans as a percentage of total consideration Source: Dealogic
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fell to 33% in 2009, down from 39% in 2008  >  >

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and 53% in 2007, while leverage multiples —
the ratio of total debt to EBITDA — in the US
fell to 4.0, their lowest level since 2004 and Quarterly disclosed global PE activity: 2007–2009
considerably below lending multiples of 4.9 800
in 2008 and 6.2 in 2007. $706
700 #    
Given these factors, it should come as !   " '$*+<
600
no surprise that the average size of PE
deals where the value was disclosed fell in 500
2009 to $100 million from $158 million in $485

2008 and $435 million in 2007. In part, 400


this reects lower purchase prices. Firms $263 $274
300 $237
paid, on average, 7.6 times cash ow for 437
$154 $176
acquisitions made last year, down from 9.1 200 387
456
$161
366 274 253
times cash ow in 2008 and 9.6 times in 242 240
100 331 221
2007. However, deal size increased in the 431 328 $95
$64 $70 $65
fourth quarter, climbing to $176 million, on
0
average, up from $95 million in the third Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2007 2008 2009
quarter, and nearly three times the 2008
average of $64 million. Source: Dealogic
 


   
   
  
  
  
 
    

     
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1 2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge


PE deal value by world region: 2000–2009
($USb)

2009 \447 \176 \332

2008 \827 \288 \1036

Despite limited liquidity, some large


2007 \4271 \479 \2411
deals closed, with 15 PE LBOs topping
the billion-dollar mark, including TPG’s
2006 \4286 \446 \2457
acquisition of IMS Health, the purchase
of Springer Science+Business Media by
2005 \1565 \199 \1560
Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund (SWF),
GIC Special Investments, and EQT Partners,
2004 \1479 \151 \1369
CVC Capital Partners’ acquisition of
Anheuser Busch InBev’s Central European
2003 \717 \120 \930
operations, Blackstone’s purchase of Busch
Entertainment, and Silver Lake and Canada
2002 \622 \45 \713
Pension Plan Investment Board’s acquisition
of Skype Technologies.
2001 \316 \47 \523
Looking at deal value by world region, nearly
half of all PE acquisitions last year involved 2000 \621 \48 \564
targets based in the Americas, up from 38%
in 2008; acquisitions involving Asia-Pacic- 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
based targets rose from 13% to 18%; while !
  ! ?  [!
those involving European, Middle Eastern or Source: Dealogic
African (EMEA) targets comprised 35% of >
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global deal value, down from 48% in 2008.  >  >

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Transactions involving targets in the US,
Japan and China gained share, while those
PE deal volume by region: 2000–2009
involving targets located in the rest of the
world lost share. 705 278 629
2009

Most PE deal activity involves buyers


and sellers within the same region. 2008 967 518 1X025

However, 2009 witnessed an increase in


the percentage of Americas and EMEA 2007 1X289 614 1X292

transactions involving a foreign PE buyer.


2006 1X319 571 1X166
Although PE exits, like acquisitions, slowed
last year, the one bright spot was the IPO, 2005 1X094 316 1X126
which emerged as a viable exit alternative.
PE rms brought 53 new companies to 2004 1X005 251 956
market in 2009, raising proceeds of $16
billion, slightly up from 52 transactions with 2003 743 174 818
proceeds of $11 billion in 2008. Strong
fourth quarter activity on American and 2002 595 109 807
Asia-Pacic exchanges helped revive the
market. By contrast, the number of new 2001 503 119 842
issues on European and Middle Eastern
exchanges trailed by a considerable margin. 2000 703 137 883

Three IPOs broke the billion-dollar


0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
barrier last year: Myer Holdings listed
on the Australian Stock Exchange, Hyatt !
  ! ?  [!

Hotels listed on the NYSE and Talecris Source: Dealogic


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2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge 2


Many portfolio companies, particularly those
acquired at the peak of the market, struggled
in 2009. However, of the more than 61,000
companies ling for bankruptcy in US courts,
only about 100 were PE portfolio companies,
according to Buyouts and peHUB.

Global PE fund-raising trends: 2005–2009


($USm)
$2,000 $700,000
$588,451 $590,314
$600,000

$480,573
# of funds $500,000
Avg. fund size ($USm)
Fund size ($USm) $400,000
$1,000 $306,290

$234,860 $300,000

803 859 $200,000


767
640 $685 $770 $658
$598
$479 $100,000
357

0 $0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Preqin
Fund-raising data excludes venture funds.

Biotherapeutics listed on NASDAQ. As of $590.3 billion in 2008. Average fund size In terms of investment style, buyout funds
29 March 2010, there were 39 PE-backed declined less dramatically to $658 million continue to account for half of all funds
companies waiting to go public, and more from $770 million. Preqin reports that it raised. Growth capital, fund of funds and
lings are expected. Activity on European took 18 months, on average, to close a fund secondary funds gained share last year,
exchanges is expected to pick up later this in 2009, compared with 12 months in 2007. while infrastructure and distressed debt
year, but the deferral of the New Look funds accounted for a smaller share of total
Funds in the $500 million to $999 million
and Travelport IPOs, and the sale of Pets funds closed.
range appear to be attracting a greater
at Home and Ambea to PE secondaries
share of investor commitments, while larger
have dented early condence. That said,
funds — especially mega-funds over $5
the recently announced €880 million
billion — lost share last year. In response,
IPO of Providence Equity Partners’ Kabel
some large funds lowered their fees.
Deutschland, Germany’s biggest cable
According to an October survey by Preqin,
company, could signal more IPO activity.
on average, PE funds — funds with $1 billion
Fund-raising declined in 2009. Globally, PE or more — reduced their management fees
rms closed 357 funds valued at $234.9 to 1.65%.
billion, down from 767 funds totaling

3 2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge


Acquisitions:
the smaller is
beautiful trend
continues
Global PE rms announced investments purchase of Japan’s Bellsystem24; and This reects the global nature of PE, its
in 1,612 companies last year, down 36% Pacic Equity’s $709 million acquisition of ability to pursue attractive opportunities
from 2,510 in 2008. The average size of Australia-based Energy Developments Ltd. anywhere in the world, and a post-recession
transactions where a value was disclosed fell risk management mindset that considers
The dispersion of large transaction targets
more than 37% to $100 million from $158 emerging markets investments — which
around the world represents a sharp
million in 2008, which, in turn, represented a once carried a very high risk premium — as
contrast from 2007 when North American
dramatic decline from $435 million in 2007. a necessary counterbalance to those in
(primarily US) targets represented 21 of
developed markets.
The dearth of mega-deals continued with only the top 25 PE transactions worldwide.
one transaction topping the $5 billion mark:
TPG’s acquisition of US-based IMS Health, a
leading provider of data and intelligence to PE deal volume by transaction size: 2007–2009
the health care industry. Transactions valued 1 3
between $3 billion and $5 billion totaled $9.6
2009 42 93 786
billion, down from 62% in 2008 and 84% in
2007. Deals in the $1 billion to $3 billion 14 17
range are becoming more numerous, as are 7
smaller transactions under $250 million. 2008 39 61 99 165 993

To put this in perspective, just four


transactions — including three LBOs — 22 17
topped the $3 billion mark last year, while
2007 109 115 137 244 1,002
seven did so in 2008 and 39 in 2007.
The average size of the 25 largest PE
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
acquisitions was $1.6 billion in 2009, $2.2
billion in 2008 and nearly $13 billion in $5b+ $3]$49b $1]$29b $500]$999

2007. $250]$499 $100]$249 ^$100

In 2009, 13 of the 25 largest acquisitions Source: Dealogic


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involved US targets, including TPG’s
purchase of IMS Health, Blackstone’s $2.7
billion acquisition of Busch Entertainment,
Transaction by deal size: 2007–2009
Apollo’s $2.3 billion purchase of Cedar ($USb)
Fair, and Advent’s $1.8 billion investment
in Fifth Third Processing Solutions. Eight 2009 \|2 \9_ \2{` \`20 \`{` \`{2 \`_{
of the largest transactions involved EMEA
targets, including the $3.4 billion purchase
of Springer Science+Business Media by GIC
2008 \2|2 \_{| \{07 \}}9 \2|9 \2|0
Special Investments and EQT Partners; CVC
Capital Partners’ $3 billion acquisition of
Anheuser-Busch’s InBev; and Silver Lake and \}7_ \28`
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board’s 2007 \28|_ \_`{ \`72| \8`` \{9_
$2 billion purchase of Skype Technologies.
There were four large deals involving Asian
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
and Australian targets: KKR’s $1.8 billion
$5b+ $}]${9b $`]$29b $500]$999
acquisition of South Korea’s Oriental Brewery;
$250]${99 $`00]$2{9 ^$`00
GS Capital and MBK Partners’ $1.4 billion
purchase of USJ Co., a Japanese leisure Source: Dealogic
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service provider; Bain Capital’s $1.1 billion

2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge 4


PE rms made 705 acquisitions in the 
   


Americas, 629 in EMEA and 278 in Asia \} !"#'
and the Pacic. While the number and value
of acquisitions was down in all regions last 2009 \{`€ \€ \|` \€} \`|‚ \`}~

year, Asia has increased its share of PE deal


activity since 2007, while North America’s \_}
share of deal activity has decreased. \€~ \}_ \`} \} \|{ \|}{
2008
Acquisitions involving targets in ve
countries — the US, the UK, Japan, Germany \{~ \}€ \`}|
and China — have consistently accounted
2007 \}~‚€ \‚€{ \| \`€
for over 60% of global PE activity. While
acquisitions in emerging markets of
Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin     

America dipped last year, the long-term US UK China ƒ


  Japan

trend is up. … 
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Half of last year’s deal volume was in four Source: Dealogic


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industries: computers and electronics,  >  >

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professional services, health care and
nancial services, while industries with the
largest transactions included computers
2009 PE acquisitions by industry ranked by volume
and electronics, nancial services, leisure (% of volume/deal volume)
and recreation, food and beverages, and
professional services. Financial services,
professional services, health care and
electronics were leading targets for PE Computers and electronics

investments in 2008 as well. 21.0% (342) Professional services


26.6% (434)
Health care
Minority investments in portfolio companies
Financial services*
accounted for 50% of global PE purchases
Retail
in 2009, up from 45% in 2008 and 33%
12.7% (208) Construction and building
in 2007. They are most common in Asia, 3.1%
(51) Telecommunications
where it is more difcult for foreigners 3.2%
(52) Food and beverage
to purchase controlling stakes in local 3.4% Consumer products
companies. Minority investments are less (55)
11.2% (182)
3.6% Transportation
common in Europe, where they account (58)
4.7% Other**
for 39% of acquisitions, and rose sharply in (77) 4.9% 5.7%
(80) (93)
the Americas last year to constitute 55% of
all acquisitions, up from 24% in 2007. The
Source: Dealogic
average size of a minority investment was *Financial Services includes Insurance.
$35 million last year, down from $70 million **Other include utilities and energy, automotive, machinery, publishing, oil and gas,
leisure, real estate, metals and mining, agribusiness, aerospace, chemicals and others.
in 2008 and $90 million in 2007. The last
time it was this low was during the downturn
in 2002, when the average deal size of
minority investments was $28 million.
while dropping signicantly in Asia and the
In 2009, club deals accounted for 10% of US. These deals allow rms to complete
global deal value, or $9.5 billion, and 5% larger transactions; as such, they are more
of deal volume. Club deals’ contribution common in booming M&A markets.
to total deal value rose sharply in Europe,

5 2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge


2009 top 25 announced global PE acquisitions
Target PE buyer Deal value ($USm) Target location Target industry
IMS Health Inc. TPG Capital LP (Texas Pacic) 5,203 United States Computers and electronics
Springer Science+Business Media GIC Special Investments Pte, 3,387 Germany Publishing
EQT Partners AB
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (Central European CVC Capital Partners Ltd. 3,031 Bosnia and Food and beverages
operations – Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Herzegovina
Croatia, Czech Republic, Serbia and Montenegro)
Busch Entertainment Corp. Blackstone Group LP 2,700 United States Leisure and recreation
Cedar Fair LP Apollo Advisors LP 2,314 United States Leisure and recreation
Skype Technologies SA (70%) Silver Lake Partners LP, Canada 2,025 Luxembourg Computers and electronics
Pension Plan Investment Board
Fifth Third Processing Solutions (51%) Advent International Corp. 1,811 United States Financial services
Oriental Brewery Co. Ltd. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. - KKR 1,810 South Korea Food and beverages
Enel Rete Gas SpA (80%) AXA Private Equity 1,715 Italy Utilities and energy
TASC Inc. KKR, General Atlantic LLC 1,650 United States Computers and electronics
Marken Ltd. Apax Partners LP 1,602 United Kingdom Transportation
IndyMac Bank FSB JC Flowers & Co. LLC, 1,550 United States Financial services
Stone Point Capital LLC
USJ Co. Ltd. Goldman Sachs Capital Partners, 1,376 Japan Leisure and recreation
MBK Partners LLC
Constantia Packaging AG (65.8%) One Equity Partners LLC 1,206 Austria Forestry and paper
Bellsystem24 Inc. Bain Capital Partners LLC 1,116 Japan Professional services
BankUnited FSB (Majority) Carlyle Group Inc, Blackstone 900 United States Financial services
Group LP, WL Ross & Co. LLC,
Centerbridge Partners LP
Wood Mackenzie & Co. Ltd. Charterhouse Development Capital 899 United Kingdom Professional services
Ltd.
Energy Developments Ltd. (79.6%) Pacic Equity Partners Pty Ltd. 709 Australia Utilities and energy
GenTek Inc. American Securities Capital 673 United States Telecommunications
Partners LLC
Psagot Ofek Investment House Ltd. (76%) Apax Partners LP 626 Israel Financial services
Bankrate Inc. Apax Partners LP 612 United States Professional services
ATI Enterprises Inc. BC Partners Ltd 581 United States Professional services
Corus Bankshares Inc (Real estate assets ) TPG Capital 554 United States Financial services
Airvana Inc. Blackstone Group LP, SAC Private 536 United States Computers and electronics
Capital Group LLC
Valerus Compression Services TPG Capital LP 500 United States Machinery
Total: top 25 39,087
Total private equity 95,520
% top 25 41%

Source: Dealogic

2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge 6


Portfolio company bolt-ons
Globally, PE portfolio companies made 517 Gamble’s prescription drug business by
bolt-on or add-on acquisitions in 2009, Warner Chilcott, a company jointly owned
with a disclosed value of $25.5 billion. by Thomas H. Lee, DLJ Merchant Banking,
This represents a moderate decline in Bain Capital and CCMP Capital; the $1.3
value, but a sharp decline in number from billion purchase of Birds Eye Foods by
2008 when there were 994 bolt-ons with a Blackstone portfolio company Pinnacle
disclosed value of $28.9 billion. Foods; and the acquisition of Barnes & Noble
College Bookstores by Barnes & Noble, a
Some well-known names were among
minority investment of Ron Burkle’s Yucaipa
the largest bolt-ons of 2009, including
Companies.
the $3.1 billion acquisition of Procter &

7 2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge


2009 top 15 announced global portfolio company bolt-on acquisitions
Target Acquiror Deal value ($USm) Target industry Acquiror's industry Financial sponsor
Kyivstar GSM ZAT Vimpel-Communications 5,417 Telecommunications Telecommunications Alfa Capital Partners
OAO - VimpelCom
Procter & Gamble Co. Warner Chilcott plc 3,100 Health care Health care Thomas H Lee Partners, DLJ
(Prescription-drug Merchant Banking Partners, Bain
business) Capital Partners LLC, CCMP
Capital LLC
IPC Holdings Ltd. Validus Holdings Ltd. 1,888 Insurance Insurance New Mountain Capital LLC, Goldman
(Bid No. 1) Sachs Capital Partners, Vestar Capital
Partners Inc.
Magellan Midstream Magellan Midstream 1,490 Oil and gas Oil and gas Madison Dearborn Partners LLC
Holdings LP Partners LP
Birds Eye Foods Inc. Pinnacle Foods Group 1,300 Food and beverage Food and beverage Blackstone Group LP, Vestar Capital
LLC Partners Inc.
Wireless TT Infoservices Quippo Telecom 1,296 Construction and Construction and GIC Special Investments Pte Ltd., IDFC
Ltd. (49%) Infrastructure Ltd. building products building products Private Equity Co. Ltd.
Invitel Holdings A/S Mid Europa Partners LLP 745 Telecommunications Financial services Blackstone Group LP,
(64.6%) Providence Equity Partners Inc.,
Permira Ltd., Kohlberg Kravis Roberts
& Co. - KKR, Apax Partners LP, Mid
Europa Partners LLP
China Online Housing E-House (China) Holdings 714 Computers and Professional services China Renaissance Capital
Technology Corp. (66%) Ltd. electronics Investment Inc.
Aplus Co. Ltd. (Class H Shinsei Bank Ltd. 651 Financial services Financial services JC Flowers & Co. LLC
Preferred Shares)
Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB 579 Health care Health care HBM BioVentures AG, Investor Growth
International AB Capital AB, Priveq Investment
Barnes & Noble College Barnes & Noble Inc. 514 Retail Retail Yucaipa Companies LLC
Bookstores Inc.
BPP Holdings plc Apollo Group Inc. 483 Publishing Professional services Carlyle Group Inc., Apollo Advisors LP
i2 Technologies Inc. JDA Software Group Inc. 446 Computers and Computers and Thoma Cressey Bravo
electronics electronics
North Baja Pipeline LLC TC PipeLines LP 395 Oil and gas Utility and energy Kayne Anderson Capital Advisors
Zict Inc. (48.3%) Atom Corp, Colowide 346 Dining and lodging Dining and lodging Olympus Capital Holdings Asia
Co. Ltd.

Source: Dealogic

2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge 8


Sovereign wealth funds
According to a recent Preqin study, SWFs had $3.5 trillion in assets Singapore and China were the most active. Among the largest
at the start of 2010, up from $3.2 trillion in 2009 and $2 trillion investments were a 4.3% stake in Citicorp by the Kuwait Investment
in 2007. SWFs, government-owned investment authorities, are Authority valued at $3 billion; Qatar Investment Authority’s purchase
primarily passive investors in public equity. However, 55% direct of 12.6% in Volkswagen for $7.1 billion and 5% of Porsche for $2.9
some of their investments to PE, with 12% making direct investments billion; and the UAE’s International Petroleum Investment Co.’s
in portfolio companies and 43% investing in PE funds, in most 37.5% stake in CEPSA, a Spanish energy company, for $4.4 billion,
cases as limited partners (LPs) and in some instances as direct and 10.4% stake in Barclays for $3.3 billion, while its Advanced
investors in the sponsor rm. SWFs with more than $10 billion under Technology Investment Co. acquired Singapore’s Chartered
management are more likely to invest in PE than smaller funds. Semiconductor for $3.3 billion. Rounding out the top 10 was the
$5.6 billion acquisition of Eircom, an Australian telecommunications
Investments in PE constituted 12% of total SWF transactions last
holding company, by STT, a subsidiary of Singapore’s Temasek.
year, compared with nearly 20% in 2008. However, the China
Investment Corporation (CIC) invested $500 million in Blackstone’s Although signs are positive, it is too soon to speculate on how SWFs
hedge fund unit and €685 million in Apax Europe VII. This year, CIC will invest in 2010. While total investments may be down, investment
announced a $956 million direct investment in Apax and a decision styles among SWFs are likely to diverge. Those suffering major
to invest $1.5 billion in the secondary market. In 2008, CIC joined losses late last year, including investors in Dubai World, will invest
forces with US PE rm JC Flowers to launch a $4 billion PE fund to less and stay closer to home. However, others may increase their
purchase US nancial assets, with CIC investing $3.2 billion. allocations, or make their rst investments. The Korean Investment
Corp. announced that it will double its exposure to PE, focusing
SWFs announced 85 transactions in 2009, about the same number
on distressed and secondary funds, while the Emirates Investment
as in 2008. However, the value of those deals increased 45% to
Authority plans to make its rst PE investment later this year.
$63.4 billion. As in prior years, funds based in the Middle East,

Global SWF investments: 2007–2009


(#) ($USm)
100 $80,000

$62,672
80
$60,000
67

60 $44,058

75 $40,000
52
40 $35,840

$20,000
20
$9,210
$7,930

14 10
16
$728
0 $0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

# investing with PE # SWF direct investing $ investing with PE $ SWF direct investing

Source: Dealogic
This chart captures transactions where the buyer is a SWF acquiring global targets.

9 2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge


Asset allocation practices differ from
country to country, with larger funds such
as those of Singapore, Kuwait, Norway
and China employing more sophisticated
asset allocation models, and often hiring
outside advisors to review them. However,
information on actual allocations is limited.

Despite their vast resources, some SWFs are


developing and ne-tuning their investment
strategies, developing their people and
attracting talent. In addition, SWFs are
adopting more rigorous risk management
practices to improve their overall
governance.

2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge 10


Sell-side action
bounces back
as IPOs gain
ground
In 2009, global PE rms exited 461 Global PE exits: 2000–2009
investments valued at $80.9 billion. This ($USm)

reects a signicant decline in activity from 2009 $51,634 $13,058 $16,239


2008, when rms exited 668 entities valued
2008 $108,574 $31,323 $10,758
at $150.7 billion. Sales to corporations
(strategic sales) or other PE rms 2007 $127,325 $174,636 $51,077
(secondary sales) remain the preferred exit
2006 $75,320 $104,960 $49,969
routes, because they enable rms to quickly
return cash to investors. 2005 $130,224 $84,069 $38,647

However, IPOs gained momentum last year, 2004 $69,590 $65,897 $32,675
as a recovering stock market once again
made them viable exit alternatives. In terms 2003 $27,717 $34,055 $10,276

of proceeds, PE rms raised 64% from sales 2002 $17,116 $16,790 $11,237
to strategic buyers, 16% from sales to PE,
and 20% from IPOs. While PE rms took 2001 $39,548 $4,989 $8,305
roughly the same number of companies
2000 $57,544 $11,857 $13,695
public in 2009 as in 2008, proceeds from
those transactions rose sharply from $10.8 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
billion to $16.2 billion. By contrast, both Source: Dealogic Strategic sales Secondary sales IPOs
strategic sales and secondary sales fell to
$51.6 billion and $13.1 billion, respectively,
less than half their 2008 levels.
Global PE exits: 2000–2009
The value of PE exits usually outstrips that (deal volume)
of acquisitions, which is not surprising, given 2009 332 76 53
the industry’s model of buying undervalued
entities, turning them around and selling 2008 400 216 52

them at an attractive prot. In 2009, the 554 447 218


2007
average exit totaled $321 million, while the
average acquisition was only $100 million. 2006 484 388 197

The last time a gap that large existed was


2005 522 367 179
in the doldrums of 2001, when the average
acquisition was $98 million and the average 2004 297 261 150
divestiture $303 million. By contrast, as
2003 235 154 48
the market peaked in 2006, the average
acquisition was slightly larger than the 2002 168 85 61
average divestiture ($424 million versus
2001 196 45 43
$396 million), as high leverage multiples
and “covenant lite” loans made it easy for PE 2000 163 58 73
rms to raise their bids.
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
While most exits involved portfolio Source: Dealogic Strategic sales Secondary sales IPOs
companies in America and Europe, PE rms
have also sold or taken public an increasing
number of Asian investments in recent
years. Asian exits rose to $16.7 billion in
2009 from $12.9 billion in 2008, while
exits of portfolio companies in the US and

11 2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge


2009 top 25 largest announced global PE divestitures, excluding IPOs
Target PE seller Deal value ($USm) Target location Target industry
Metavante Technologies Inc.* Warburg Pincus LLC 5,484 United States Computers and
electronics
Orangina Schweppes Blackstone Group LP, Lion Capital LLP 3,815 France Food and beverage
Stiefel Laboratories Inc. Blackstone Group LP 3,600 United States Health care
Springer Science+Business Media Candover Investments plc, Cinven Ltd. 3,387 Germany Publishing
Starent Networks Corp. Matrix Partners 2,900 United States Computers and
electronics
Shenzhen Development Bank Ltd. (16.8%) TPG Capital LP (Texas Pacic) 2,282 China Financial services
Paris Re Holdings Ltd. AAC Capital Partners, Hellman & Friedman LLC, 1,957 Switzerland Insurance
Vestar Capital Partners Inc., Crestview Partners
LLC, Stone Point Capital LLC
Venture Production plc (71%) ArcLight Capital Partners LLC 1,871 United Kingdom Oil and gas
BEZEQ Israel Telecommunications Corp. Saban Capital Group Inc., Apax Partners LP 1,766 Israel Telecommunications
Ltd. (30.7%)
KBRO Co. Ltd. (77%) Carlyle Group Inc. 1,743 Taiwan Telecommunications
MONIER Group GmbH (Majority)** PAI Partners 1,398 Germany Construction and building
products
Pearl Group Ltd.** TDR Capital LLP 1,322 United Kingdom Insurance
Nikko Asset Management Co. Ltd. GIC Special Investments Pte Ltd., Warburg 1,187 Japan Financial services
(98.6%) Pincus LLC, Nikko Private Equity
Bellsystem24 Inc. Nikko Private Equity 1,116 Japan Professional Services
Crest Nicholson plc (90%)** West Coast Capital Ltd., Bank of Scotland 931 United Kingdom Real estate
Private Equity
Ovation Pharmaceuticals Inc. GTCR Golder Rauner LLC 900 United States Health care
Wood Mackenzie & Co. Ltd. Candover Investments plc 899 United Kingdom Professional services
Meihua Biotechnology Group Co. Ltd.*** CDH China Holdings Management Co. Ltd. 848 China Chemicals
Ferretti SpA (53%)** Candover Investments plc, Permira Ltd. 822 Italy Transportation
CoreValve Inc. HealthCap, Apax Partners LP 775 United States Health care
Simmons Co.** Thomas H Lee Partners 758 United States Consumer products
Russian Alcohol Group ZAO (37.8%) Lion Capital LLP, UFG Private Equity 666 Russian Federation Food and beverage
Sturm Foods Inc. HM Capital Partners LLC 660 United States Food and beverage
United Malt Holdings Castle Harlan Inc. 655 United States Food and beverage
British Car Auctions Ltd. Montagu Private Equity Ltd. 638 United Kingdom Retail
Total: top 25 42,378
Total divestitures (excluding IPOs) 64,137
% top 25 66%

Source: Dealogic. Divestitures as captured and categorized by Dealogic.


* Involved the disposal of shares Warburg Pincus acquired for $4 billion in a 2007 PIPE transaction when Marshall & Isley spun off the business. Warburg's 25% stake was converted
to an 11% stake in the new company.
** Exit through restructuring.
*** Equity rolled over to a new company.

2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge 12


Global PE exit trends by quarter: 2007–2009
($USb)

PE rms went on an 140


Strategic sales

unprecedented shopping 120 $23.0 Secondary sales


IPOs
spree between 2005 100

and 2007, making 80


$8.2
$76.8 $10.3 $9.7

8,787 acquisitions with 60


$40.0 $29.7
$28.2
$6.4
$9.3
$2.1

a disclosed value of 40 $12.3


$1.4 $4.2
$0.6
$1.8
$1.8 trillion. Although 20 $28.6 $27.4
$35.1 $36.2
$30.4
$50.2
$8.2 $0.9
$1.5
$0.0
$1.9
$11.5

$9.0
$19.2 $0.4 $17.6 $17.9

investments made at the 0


$8.9 $4.6
$11.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
height of the market 2007 2008 2009
Source: Dealogic
are unlikely to yield as
much as those made
in weak markets, PE Average PE deal size: acquisitions vs. divestitures: 2000–2009
rms are eager to Based on disclosed deals
($USm)

exit some of these 600


Acquisitions $535

investments and 500


$442
Divestitures $481
$435
return capital 400 $367
$405 $396

$424
to LPs. $303
$321

300
$235
$209
200 $227
$244 $158

$170 $100
$146
100
$108 $98

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Dealogic
This chart excludes IPOs.

Average PE deal size: strategic sales, secondary sales and IPOs: 2000–2009
($USm)
1000
Strategic sales
Secondary sales $801
800 IPOs

$567
600 $530
$496
$422
$388
$395 $368 $364 $384
400 $344 $350
$318 $308 $306
$289 $280 $279
$254 $234
$214 $218 $216 $207
$188 $193 $184
200 $156 $168
$178

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Dealogic

13 2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge


Americas PE exit trends: 2000–2009
($USb)

2009 $19.8 $4.2 $8.5

2008 $58.2 $5.5 $3.5

Europe fell to $32.6 billion and $31.1 billion,


2007 $52.8 $77.8 $18.0 respectively, less than half their 2008 levels.

Fourteen PE divestitures, excluding IPOs,


2006 $34.2 $33.7 $23.5
exceeded the $1 billion mark, including
Blackstone and Lion Capital’s sale of
2005 $69.6 $37.0 $21.4
Orangina Schweppes for $3.8 billion and
Blackstone’s sale of Stiefel Laboratories for
2004 $31.4 $32.9 $16.4
$3.6 billion. Notable sales to PE secondaries
included Candover and Cinven’s sale of
2003 $18.5 $16.3 $7.0
Springer Science+Business Media to GIC
Special Investments.
2002 $9.8 $5.0 $6.7
Exit methods vary considerably by world
2001 $31.8 $2.4 $6.2 region. Strategic sales are more common
in America and Europe, secondary sales in
2000 $43.4 $2.9 $10.2 Europe, and IPOs in Asia and the US.

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% The top exchanges for IPOs last year were
the NYSE, the NASDAQ, Hong Kong and
Strategic sales Secondary sales IPOs
Australia (mainly due to of Myers Holdings’
Source: Dealogic
Strategic and secondary deal values refer to deals where the value is known. $1.9 billion IPO), which, as a group,
accounted for 79% of proceeds. In terms of
IPO volume, the NYSE and the NASDAQ and
+
;<
 <=>   Hong Kong exchanges drew more than half
($USm)
of the activity.
 $8,203 $1,535 $6,947
Health care, retail, professional services
? $6,546 $2,735 $3,654 and computers and electronics companies
headed the list of nancial sponsor-backed
 $13,019 $6,646 $14,105 IPOs, accounting for more than 50% of
IPO volume and proceeds. The ve largest
@ $5,195 $1,056 $6,530 IPOs of 2009 were Myers Holdings ($1.9
$660 billion), Hyatt Hotels ($1.1 billion), Telecris
 $15,111 $2,787 Biotherapeutics ($1.1 billion), Cobalt
$408 International Energy ($958 million) and
D $7,685 $8,074 Dollar General ($824 million).

H $840 $325 $802


$17
 $278 $687
$0
 $175 $903

 $109 $872 $275

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Strategic sales Secondary sales IPOs

Source: Dealogic
Strategic and secondary deal values refer to deals where the value is known.

2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge 14


EMEA PE exit trends: 2000–2009
($USm)

2009 $23,040 $7,292 $779

2008 $43,875 $23,129 $3,458

2007 $61,503 $90,154 $18,932

2006 $35,920 $70,253 $19,962

2005 $45,465 $46,434 $14,485

2004 $30,506 $32,628 $8,239

2003 $8,398 $17,382 $2,462

2002 $7,065 $11,763 $3,892

2001 $7,607 $2,596 $1,208

2000 $13,997 $8,047 $3,192

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Strategic sales Secondary sales IPOs

Source: Dealogic
Strategic and secondary deal values refer to deals where the value is known.

2009 PE sponsored IPOs ranked by volume

Health care
22.6%
(12 deals/$2.4b) Computer and electronics

37.7% Retail
(20 deals/$6.9b)
Professional services

Other

17.0%
(9 deals/$1.9b)

9.4% 13.2%
(5 deals/$1.0b) (7 deals/$4.1b)

Source: Dealogic

15 2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge


Portfolio
companies on
the mend
PE business models and strategies were to reduce costs. Firms achieving superior B. Hawkes, the former CEO of Eaton Vance,
tested and adapted in 2009 amid increasing results were more likely to follow a “100 and Paul Pressler, a veteran retail, leisure
scrutiny and regulation. PE rms realize that day” post-acquisition plan, change CEOs as and consumer products executive, to guide
four factors, historically, drive returns: multiple needed during any restructuring process, portfolio companies and investments in
expansion arbitrage, leverage, improved core link performance measures and incentives to these sectors. Expect to see more of this as
operational efciencies and revenue growth. the overall strategy, and derive savings from PE funds become more sector-focused.
The rst two factors are beyond the control of working capital improvements.
The revival of the high-yield bond market
individual rms, while the last two characterize
Growing revenue will become increasingly beginning in the second quarter of 2009
the industry’s most successful rms.
important as 2010 progresses. Many enabled some companies, such as Clear
At the top of the last M&A cycle when the companies acquired at top-of-the-market Channel’s outdoor unit, to use the proceeds
urge to merge was at its peak, many rms prices were nanced with large amounts from bond sales to renance debt, thereby
could begin exiting within 24 months, after of leveraged loans on the assumption avoiding a year-end covenant violation.
completing a few structural repairs. Those that continued economic growth would
Other companies purchased at the height
days are over. In an environment of reduced allow the companies to “grow into” their
of the buyout boom defaulted last year.
leverage, improving performance at portfolio balance sheets. Some portfolio companies
According to research by Buyouts and
companies of existing and future funds is will likely face restructuring if revenue
peHUB, there were 74 LBO defaults in the
critical to delivering superior returns. After increases slowly in a sluggish economy and
US in 2009, 40 of which were companies
spending much of the last year negotiating cost containment and other operational
purchased between 2005 and 2007.
with lenders to amend covenants and extend efciencies fail to generate sufcient cash to
The purchase price of defaulted portfolio
maturities, or — in the worst cases — allow these companies to de-lever.
companies totaled $48.2 billion.
arranging out-of-court restructurings or
Delivering consistently superior results also
prepackaged bankruptcies, sponsors have Companies that could not renance — many
requires having the right PE team working
realized that there are no quick ways to x of which were small to mid-sized portfolio
with portfolio company management.
companies bought at the top of the market companies — sought creative restructuring
Some funds deploy “operating partners”
and struggling under a pile of debt. solutions, including discounted debt
or an entire team that works with portfolio
buybacks and pre-packaged bankruptcies.
The 2008 Ernst & Young study on creating company management to execute strategic
With over $1.5 trillion5 of leveraged loans
value at portfolio companies showed that cost initiatives, increase revenue, and implement
set to mature globally between 2010 and
reductions, growth initiatives, and working cost, supply chain, procurement and working
2014, including nearly $800 billion in the
capital improvements characterized the capital improvements.
US,6 restructuring and renancing will
most successful European PE exits between
Other funds have recruited former be signicant for some time. Companies
2005 and 2008. Top-performing companies
executives and management consultants as that can renance at the favorable rates
averaged a CAGR of 29%, with nearly half of
senior advisers. With their wealth of industry currently available should do so, as
that attributable to cost reduction programs,
and operating knowledge, these advisers Moody’s Investors Service expects yields
30% to organic growth initiatives, 17%
have helped their rms (particularly their on speculative bonds in the US to begin
to acquisitions and divestitures, and the
deal teams) evaluate potential investments increasing in 2011, raising the cost of
remainder to other actions.
and guide portfolio companies. Warburg debt capital.
Improvements in operating efciency Pincus hired Fred Hassan, the former CEO
had by far the greatest impact on of Schering-Plough Corp., as a senior
growth. Simplifying the operating model health care adviser. Harry Sachinis, the
through initiatives such as product-based former president of McGraw-Hill’s business
specialization at production facilities, information group, is plying his media know-
product and channel rationalization and how as an Advent International operating
outsourcing were the most effective ways partner. Clayton Dubilier & Rice hired James

5. Credit Suisse
6. Moody’s Investors Service

2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge 16


A strong high-
yield market
fuels global US leveraged loan issuance: 2006–2009
($USb)
800

restructuring 700
New issues
Total issues

efforts 600

500
While nancing for new acquisitions was
400
difcult to obtain during the rst three $689
quarters of 2009, it picked up in the last 300
$612

quarter. In the US, new leveraged loan issues $472


$412
totaled $80 billion in 2009, with nearly half 200
$294
of that total — or $37 billion — issued in the $239
100 $194
fourth quarter, representing a 76% rise from $80
the fourth quarter of 2008’s $21 billion. 0
2006 2007 2008 2009
Although US leveraged loans were down
Source: Thomson Reuters
from $194 billion in 2008 to $80 billion
in 2009, the positive fourth quarter has
renewed optimism for deal nancing. During
this quarter, new issues included General Global high-yield debt issuance: 2006–2009
($USb)
Atlantic Partners’ purchase of TASC, Inc.,
250
TPG’s majority stake in Valerus Compression
US
and Carlyle’s acquisition of OpenLink
Global
Financial Inc., to name a few. Financing for 200
new acquisitions should continue to increase
gradually in 2010.
150
It became easier to renance ailing portfolio
companies in 2009 as investor appetite $210
100 $200 $196
for better returns than could be garnered
from government issues created a high- $137 $136
$147

yield bond market three times the size of 50


$74
what existed a year earlier. According to
$40
Bloomberg, new high-yield issues worldwide,
including corporation and PE portfolios, 0
2006 2007 2008 2009
totaled $210 billion, the highest levels in a
Source: Bloomberg
decade, enabling portfolio companies in all
parts of the world to replace leveraged loans
with new bonds, in many cases extending
the maturity in the process. PE portfolios European defaults at 10.2%. The global and gaming/leisure sectors were the next, with
that renanced their debt included HCA, US rates exceeded cyclical highs reached 19 defaults in each. Across regions, 205 (or
Clearwire Communications, Clear Channel in 1991 and 2002. Global defaults began 77%) of the 2009 defaulters were based in
and Expro Finance Luxembourg. Investor declining in the fourth quarter and are North America, while only 30 (11%) were
appetite for high-yield debt should continue expected to drop sharply in 2010, ending from Europe, and 31 (12%) in Asia and
through 2010, so long as interest rates on the year at 3.3% under Moody’s most Latin America.
government bonds remain low. optimistic scenario and at 7.1% under its
That said, PE rms’ ability to bring in
most pessimistic one. Europe’s default rate is
Nonetheless, portfolio companies were operating and industry experts and inject
expected to fall to 2.7% by year-end, while the
among the 266 speculative-grade issuers additional capital works to enhance the
US rate is projected to end the year at 3.6%.
Moody’s identied as having defaulted in sustainability and growth of their portfolio
2009. The global default rate closed the The media industry was the worst- companies.
year at 12.5%, with US defaults at 13.2% and performing sector in 2009, with 45 issuers
defaulting. The automotive and hotel/

17 2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge


Fund-raising
challenges
remain, despite Capital rasied by PE funds with a global investment focus: 2003–2009
($USb)

capital surplus 150


# Funds
Amount raised
$141
$133

$110

Fund-raising slowed in 2009 as the full 94


100
impact of the worldwide nancial collapse 86

took its toll. Global PE rms closed 357 67


funds last year, down from 767 in 2008 and $51
48 48
the smallest number of funds closed in ve 50 42 $44

years. Funds took 18 months, on average, $31

to close, well above the 2007 average of 12 12


months, and some large funds failed to meet $4
0
their targets. While the average value of 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2009 vintage funds was a respectable $658 Source: Preqin
million, the total value of 2009 vintage
funds was $234.9 billion, less than half the
$590.3 billion in 2008 funds. That said, Funds closed by size: 2005–2009 ($USm)
Preqin reported that 1,589 funds were on $3,835
the road as of February 2010 seeking to 2009 $61,478 $86,077 $42,472 $40,998
raise $668 billion in total. $7,587

PE funds with a global investment focus 2008 $181,664 $229,834 $85,833 $85,396

grew from $4 billion in 2003 to $141 billion $7,682


in 2007, dipped slightly in 2008, before 2007 $158,347 $221,363 $95,989 $105,070
plunging to $44 billion in 2009. Despite $7,663
this decline, it shows the increasingly global 2006 $118,854 $170,303 $81,847 $101,906
nature of PE rms and their dexterity to
$8,149
chase global opportunities.
2005 $55,277 $103,507 $62,081 $77,276
Overlooked in the fund-raising discussion
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
is the fact that PE rms closed 2009 with
$500 billion in “dry powder,” according $5b+ $1b – $4.9b $500m – $999m

to Preqin, with funds closing in 2007 and $100m – $499m Under $100m
2008 accounting for three-fths of that Source: Preqin
amount. Deploying these funds will be a Fund-raising excludes venture funds.

challenge in 2010, as excess capital chases


fewer deals. General partners (GPs) may
nd themselves negotiating with LPs to
meeting their targets, it is encouraging that that 45% of potential buyers are in North
extend the life of funds, or exploring other
50 funds closed north of $1 billion in 2009’s America, 39% in Europe, and 45% in Asia
solutions to address uncalled capital. In
challenging environment. and emerging markets.
this environment, raising the next fund will
remain a challenge. In terms of investment style, only one While vintage 2009 funds in all other
category registered both absolute and categories raised less money than their
Fewer mega-funds closed last year. CVC
relative growth in the number of funds 2008 counterparts, growth capital and fund-
European Equity Partners V, a multi-industry
closed last year. Secondary funds dedicated of-funds gained share.
buyout fund focused on Western Europe,
to buying positions in existing funds raised
was the only 2009 fund to raise more The preponderance of funds closing in
$18.5 billion through 15 funds, up sharply
than $10 billion, while 10 funds over $10 2009 focused on the US and Europe. This is
from $8.7 billion raised through 21 funds in
billion closed in 2008. Funds in the $1 somewhat ironic, given that returns on Asia-
2008. A recent analysis by Cogent Partners
billion to $10 billion-dollar range suffered Pacic funds declined by less than those
shows that pricing levels rose dramatically
as well, with 49 funds raising $1 billion with a US or European focus. However, LPs
in the second half of 2009, reaching 72%
to $10 billion, down from 135 and 136, based in Asia were the least satised with
of net asset value (NAV), up from 40% in
respectively, in each of the prior two years. the performance of their funds, according
the rst half of the year. Preqin estimates
Although a handful of funds closed without

2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge 18


to a study by Coller Capital. Only 24% of Funds closed by investment style: 2005–2009
($USb)
Asia-Pacic investors were satised with $6.5 $2.6 $11.3 $0.4

the recent performance of their funds, while 2009 $102.6 $42.8 $23.5 $18.5 $26.7
only 42% of those in Europe and 60% of
those in North America were satised. Given $34.6 $17.0 $8.7 $20.9

these conicting signals, some funds that 2008 $233.5 $135.0 $42.1 $45.0 $53.6

closed this year may move away from their


$13.5 $14.4 $6.6
original regional or industry focus to take
advantage of opportunities in other areas. 2007 $250.2 $123.1 $41.1 $39.0 $61.4 $39.2

That said, the second-largest fund to close in $11.2 $7.4 $15.1 $3.3
2009, the $8.8 billion First Reserve Fund XII, 2006 $221.1 $99.2 $24.8 $42.5 $56.1
is focused on energy and natural resources
in Brazil, China and India, while the 18th- $8.3 $7.7 $8.8 $7.9 $11.2
ranked Mount Kellett Fund I is focused on 2005 $138.9 $72.0 $29.9 $21.6
Asia. Both Blackstone and Carlyle opened
renminbi-denominated funds this year, the 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
former in a partnership with the Shanghai
Buyouts Real estate Infrastructure Distressed
Pudong New Area, and the latter through a
Fund-of-funds Growth equity Secondaries Balanced
partnership with Fosun International, China’s
largest non-state-owned conglomerate. Other

These funds will allow their sponsors to tap Source: Preqin


Fund-raising excludes venture funds.
the resources of inuential local investors
whose investments are otherwise limited
by currency control rules and who can
Funds closed by geographical area of focus: 2005–2009
potentially expedite the transaction
($USm)
approval process because they are subject
to fewer requirements, thereby reducing 2009 $135,485 $73,891 $25,484

completion risk.
2008 $341,678 $145,479 $103,157
In the wake of the market’s 2008 collapse,
there was much talk about investors
reducing their allocations to PE, ironically 2007 $349,316 $151,901 $87,234

because these investments generally held


up better than other parts of institutional 2006 $280,689 $129,804 $70,080
portfolios and thus exceeded their
allocation levels. A recent Preqin survey of 2005 $161,372 $103,761 $41,157
106 large institutional investors suggests
that both investments and allocations to PE 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

should increase. US Europe ROW

Perhaps because 40% of those interviewed Source: Preqin


Fund-raising excludes venture funds.
sat on the sidelines in 2009, two-thirds
expect to make commitments in 2010, and
51% expect to do so during the rst half of
the year. Both the size of commitments and
investor allocations to PE could increase
next year. 51% of survey respondents expect
to commit more capital to PE, while only 8%
expect to commit less. Similarly, 22% plan to

19 2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge


increase their PE allocations in 2010, while
13% plan to reduce them.
GPs may nd themselves negotiating
This optimism may reect positive PE
performance during the second half of with LPs to extend the life of funds,
2009. The State Street Private Equity Index or exploring other solutions to
shows that global PE funds had IRRs of
5.5% and 5.8% during the second and address uncalled capital.
third quarters of 2009, following ve
negative quarters.

Although LPs are willing to invest again,


they also seem more than willing to move
money around. More than half of those
Global PE internal rate of return: quarter-over-quarter
interviewed said they would consider
investing in funds managed by rms they 15%
10.89%
have no prior relationship with. Two-thirds
8.55%
were open to emerging market funds, with 10%
5.48% 5.83%
China, India, Brazil and other Asian markets 3.18%
5% 5.76% 2.26%
garnering the greatest interest. Mid-sized 4.17%
Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09
buyout funds, distressed debt funds and 0%
-0.87%
secondary funds were also seen as offering -1.51%

-5%
attractive returns, while some expressed -6.46%
-8.35%
reservations about committing more money -10%
Quarterly IRRs

to mega-funds, in part due to lower returns


in recent years, and in part because many -15%
-16.32%
institutional investors had large unfunded -20%
commitments to these funds. A ight to Source: State Street Private Equity Index
quality can be expected, as investors seek to
limit “surprises” and make choices
based on performance and the quality
of a rm’s nancial information and risk
management practices.
Given these developments, some large
In the US, the fund-raising process itself came institutional investors could take matters into
under re in 2009 following an investigation their own hands. Direct investing, currently
by New York State Attorney General a small percentage of total institutional
Andrew Cuomo of pay-to-play scandals, investing, could gain popularity as large
which involved rms hiring third-party deals are completed, such as last year’s $6.3
placement agents to steer public pension billion acquisition of Transurban Group, an
fund investments their way. So far, Cuomo Australian logistics provider, by the Canada
has collected $120 million in settlements, Pension Plan Investment Board and Ontario
with several prominent rms adopting the Teachers’ Pension Plan. Should the Canadian
Attorney General’s code of conduct which model, with a 20-year cycle and virtually no
bans the use of placement agents or other capital outows, deliver attractive returns, it
third parties to solicit business from pension could lead other large institutional investors
funds and prohibits rms from making to form their own funds.
campaign contributions to government
ofcials who can inuence investment
decisions of public pension funds.

2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge 20


25 largest funds closed in 2009
Target Style Size ($USm) Industry Focus Regional Focus Mgr. Country
CVC European Equity Partners V Buyout 14,203 Multi-industry West Europe UK
First Reserve Fund XII Natural resources 8,821 Natural resources/energy Brazil, China, India, US US
Hellman & Friedman VII Buyout 8,800 Media/technology/nancial North America, Europe, Asia US
KKR European Fund III Buyout 7,984 Multi-Industry Europe US
Riverstone/Carlyle Global Energy Natural resources 6,000 Natural resources/energy Global US
and Power Fund IV
GS Vintage Fund V Secondaries 5,500 Multi-industry North America US
Charterhouse Capital Partners IX Buyout 5,170 Consumer and manufacturing West Europe UK
Clayton Dubilier & Rice VIII Buyout 5,000 Business services/other North America, Europe US
Lindsay Goldberg - Fund III Buyout 4,700 Multi-industry Germany, North America, US
West Europe, Scandinavia
Blackstone Real Estate Real estate 4,366 Real estate UK, Europe US
Partners Europe III
Onex Partners III Buyout 4,300 Multi-industry North America Canada
TA XI Buyout 4,000 Any US US
Oak Hill Capital Partners III Buyout 3,800 Multi-industry US, Global US
Partners Group Secondary 2008 Secondaries 3,746 Any Global Switzerland
Welsh Carson Anderson & Buyout 3,700 Health care, information US, North America US
Stowe XI services, business services
Dover Street VII Secondaries 2,900 Any North America, Global US
Goldman Sachs Real Estate Real estate 2,630 Real estate US US
Mezzanine Partners
Quantum Energy Partners V Buyout 2,500 Energy Canada, US US
Mount Kellett Fund I Buyout 2,500 Any China, Asia US
Finvest Private Equity Fund Buyout 2,500 Any North America, Europe Switzerland
Fondi Italiani Per Le Infrastrutture Infrastructure 2,443 Infrastructure Italy Italy
Siguler Guff Distressed Fund-of-funds 2,400 Any North America US
Opportunities Fund III
JC Flowers III Buyout 2,320 Financial services North America, West Europe, US
Global
Clessidra Capital Partners II Buyout 2,040 Industrial, utilities Italy Italy
Adams Street 2009 Global Fund-of-funds 1,950 Any North America, Europe, US
Opportunities Portfolio Global
Total top 25 114,273
Total 2009 234,860
% top 25 49%

Source: Preqin

21 2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge


Emerging
markets come PE acquisitions by target country: 2000–2009
($USm)

into their own


9,000 $8,296

8,000
$6,739
7,000 $6,256
Less affected by the global nancial crisis $5,691
6,000
and rebounding faster than the developed
$5,525
world, emerging markets are viewed by 5,000
$4,811 $3,780
many as increasingly attractive investment 4,000 $1,651 $3,961
$1,404 $1,689
targets. We’ve proled three of the largest, 3,000
$1,133 $427
$1,223
$1,007
$541 $889 $3,242
$578 $363
fastest-growing markets — China, Brazil and $183
$404
$135 $230
$828 $952
$1,572
$1,778
2,000 $193
India — ranked the rst, second and third $80
$165 $78
$1,766 $1,028
$123 $10
1,000 $864
most attractive emerging markets among PE $12
$669
$722

investors in a recent survey by Coller Capital. 0


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

With M&A activity in these markets up Œ ‹ Š


" + !

dramatically in the last decade, PE is Source: Dealogic


 


   
   
  
  

   Š
", ‹ , Œ 
+ ! 
increasing its investments. Initially, the bulk
of the activity involved overseas PE rms
making minority investments in local targets
with the goal of injecting growth capital Foreign direct investment in Brazil fell companies that will benet from the World
and increasing their equity stakes down the more than 40% last year, to $26 billion, Cup and Olympics. Axxon Group of Rio de
road. While minority investments continue while the estimated value of announced PE Janiero is considering oil services, health
to be the norm, domestic acquisitions in all transactions declined more precipitously, care and media investments, while the
three nations took off in 2006. Although from $1.8 billion in 2008 to $722 million Carlyle Group has announced plans to invest
PE investments appeared to be down in last year. However, Brazil’s government $1.2 billion in Brazil over the next ve years.
2009, published deal statistics do not reect expects 2010 inows to equal the 2008
add-on investments, investments by venture With so much capital expected to pour in,
record of $45 billion, and PE investments
rms and unannounced acquisitions. the biggest challenge Brazil faces is ination
are expected to mirror this trend.
risk. While the government claimed scal
The top three PE investments in 2009 were and monetary stimuli introduced in the
Brazil Carlyle’s $250 million acquisition of CVC wake of the nancial crisis were temporary,
Brasil Operadora e Agencia de Viagens, it has not yet indicated when it will begin
Brazilians have long said that their country a leading travel agency, and Advent tightening scal policy. This may be
is on the verge of greatness. That day may International’s purchase of CETIP, Latin politically driven, as Brazil will elect a new
nally be here. Brazil posted the strongest America’s largest asset clearing house, and president in October, and President Lula
recovery in Latin America, with a growing Pitagoras, a professional services rm, for may not be willing to put the brakes on the
middle class, brisk manufacturing, the $171 million and $142 million, respectively. economy until after his successor is elected.
biggest oil discovery in the Americas in 30 There were three notable exits last year: Nevertheless, delaying a much-needed
years, and an infrastructure boom expected Great Hill Partners’ sale of online publisher scal adjustment until the fourth quarter
in advance of the World Cup in 2014 and the BuscaPe.com for $342 million, Linzor may make higher interest and ination rates
Olympics in 2016. Brazil’s economy could Capital Partners’ sale of Cinemark Brasil more likely, especially if foreign investment
expand by 5% to 7% in 2010, with household for an undisclosed amount and the IPO of continues to pour in, despite efforts to slow
spending expected to rise to nearly 4% nancial services rm CETIP, which raised it with a tax on portfolio investments.
and industrial output to 8%, while ination $450 million just ve months after Advent
should remain below 5%. PE rms looking to invest in Brazil need
International purchased a 30% stake for
to carefully screen targets and devote
Brazil’s highly regulated banking industry, $171 million.
sufcient time to due diligence, which
with its relatively low leverage, was largely Transactions should increase this year, as tends to take longer than in more mature
shielded from the nancial meltdown. Public several large rms have announced their economies. In screening targets, would-be
debt is expected to fall from 44% of gross intent to make more investments in Brazil. buyers should start by asking themselves
domestic product (GDP) in 2009 to 43% Grupo Santander Brazil and San Francisco- where their expertise would ll an unmet
in 2010 and 41% in 2011. Currently all based Paul Capital Partners have announced need, and then partner with local rms
three US rating agencies granted Brazil an they are looking to make investments in
investment grade rating on its debt.

2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge 22


to acquire and value target companies. PE exits by type: 2007–2009
($USm)
As they invest in Brazilian companies, like
12000
many in emerging markets, buyers must
Trade sales
recognize they may be exposed to tax, IPOs
grey market sales, governance and other
9000
issues which need to be carefully addressed.
Many companies are family-owned, with $9,749
inadequate or non-existent nancial 6000 $2,933
information and accounting structure. This
makes valuing assets particularly difcult, as $228
comparables are hard to nd. Adding to the 3000 $1,075 $1,576 $4,046
$748
difculty is Brazil’s history of large currency $2,437 $450 $709
$0
uctuations. Last year, the value of the real $797 $621 $1,639 $403 $342 $25
$160
rose 35% against the US dollar. 0
Brazil China India Brazil China India Brazil China India
2007 2008 2009
Integration planning also presents Source: Dealogic
Ts ar a res rasa s ere e seller s a P r ad e  er s a r ra e r a er P r
challenges. Brazil’s high-cost social benets ‹  r a   s ased  are s la 
and unwieldy tax and labor laws can create
“surprises” for unprepared investors. For
example, the distinction between full-time
and contract workers is opaque, which could Most experts are projecting double-digit Nevertheless, there are three factors that
add a signicant post-acquisition expense if growth for China in 2010. Some even could limit China’s performance this year:
employment taxes must be paid or lay-offs contend it might be the nation’s best year in
are necessary. In spite of these investment • The expected exit from more relaxed
a decade, with China displacing Japan as the
challenges, prepared buyers can nd vast monetary policies could happen too
world’s second largest economy. However,
opportunities as the market evolves quickly. While most experts expect this
this time, internal demand will play a bigger
and grows. to be done in stages, there is a small risk
role in China’s growth than exports. While
that policy-makers — perceiving that they
Nomura Securities expects exports to grow
have delayed tightening for too long — will
by up to 11% in 2010 as global inventories
China are rebuilt, it predicts that internal demand
overreact.

Asia’s response to the 2008 nancial crisis could grow by as much as 20%. • Although it is not likely to do so until the
was very different from its response to global recovery is in full swing, China
Private consumption remains low relative to
the Asian nancial crisis a decade earlier. is expected to eventually decouple the
China’s GDP (37% in 2008) but is growing
Instead of tightening monetary and scal yuan from the US dollar to gain more
more than 7% a year, the fastest rate in
policy, which forced companies to rely on control over its monetary policy. Allowing
the world. Despite this increase, ination
exports for growth, Asia undertook the the yuan to trade within a 0.5% band of
is expected to remain at a low 2.5%,7
largest collective easing of economic policies the 6.83 yuan-to-dollar peg set in 2008
due largely to abundant manufacturing
in history. China led the way with a RMB4 may have shielded Chinese exports from
capacity which fuels price competition.
trillion stimulus program ($586 billion) sharper declines such as those occurring
China’s focus on using stimulus money for
announced in late 2008, dedicated primarily in developed countries like Japan. But it
infrastructure projects — particularly in
to multi-year infrastructure projects. That could also have deleterious effects should
underserved regions of the country — was
program created demand that lifted other growth rates and monetary policy in the
also responsible for limiting inationary
Asia-Pacic markets, boosting Australia’s US and China diverge.
pressures and ensuring real growth. China’s
commodity exports and Japan’s sales of emphasis on infrastructure also gives it a • As China recovers faster than the rest
luxury goods. major competitive advantage over India as a of the world and moves to become a
target for new investment. consumer-driven economy, inflation is

7. 2010 Global Economic Outlook, Nomura Global Economics.

23 2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge


PE minority investments as a percentage of country total deal value: 2000–2009 The IPO total does not include China Pacic
100.0%
100.0% 100.0%
Insurance’s $3.1 billion secondary offering
100% 100.0% 93.2%

86.9% 87.6% on the Hong Kong stock exchange.


92.8% 82.8% 84.9%
84.6%
80%
76.8%
72.9%
83.8% The value of China-focused funds that closed
80.2%
63.7%
76.3%
65.4%
in 2009 fell precipitously to $541 million
64.4% from $12.4 billion in 2008. We believe this
60%
54.6%
54.8% 47.6% 56.5% represents a breather, as investors make
45.4% good on unfunded commitments, and GPs
40%
28.5%
based outside China line up to introduce
local currency funds.
26.2%
20% 22.4%
17.7% The Chinese tax system continued to evolve
3.7%
0.5% in 2009, with taxes becoming a greater area
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 of focus for PE rms investing in China.
Œ ‹ Š
"

Source: Dealogic
>
>
>
 >  >>>
>>
 > >>Œ X>‹ >

">>> India
a risk. Consumer prices rose 1.5% in Longyuan Power valued at $730 million, After a year that witnessed both the global
January and are expected to accelerate Morgan Stanley Private Equity’s purchase of nancial crisis and an internal food crisis
further as the year progresses. The Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group for brought on by weak monsoons, India’s
central bank has already raised reserve $319 million, and the acquisition of a 20% economy is recovering and is expected
requirements twice in 2010 to curtail a stake in Chery Automobile by CDH China to grow by 8% in 2010, buoyed by lower
credit and housing price boom. Should Holdings and Bohai Industrial Investment interest rates, rising consumer demand and
China grow at a double-digit rate and Fund for $293 million. a strengthening jobs market.
impose stricter monetary policy while Last year, India undertook stimulus
Going forward, infrastructure opportunities
the US keeps interest rates near zero in programs worth 3.5% of GDP. But with GDP
abound. With 13 million cars sold in China
response to a tepid recovery, China could growing for the rst time since 2007, and
last year, and just 30,000 kilometers of toll
experience huge capital inflows, inflation with ination reaching a 13-month high of
roads, China will need 85,000 kilometers of
and possibly an asset bubble. 8.6% in January, the government is under
new highways by 2020, according to Andrew
What might this mean for PE rms? Last Yee, global head of infrastructure nance at pressure to begin winding down economic
year, PE investments in China fell, but by less Standard Chartered Bank. Similarly, China stimuli. India’s recently released 2010
than in other emerging markets. In 2009, treats just 50% of its wastewater, in contrast budget is designed to do this in a calibrated
there were 73 PE acquisitions in China with Europe’s 90% and Singapore’s 99%. way, reducing the decit from 6.9% to
valued at $3.8 billion, compared with 120 5.5% of GDP, and restoring duties on crude
China’s exit market recovered last year, oil, gasoline and other rened petroleum
transactions worth $6.3 billion in 2008.
with $4 billion in divestitures and $9.7 products. While some worry that these
In a major shift, Chinese PE rms made
billion in IPOs, well above 2008’s $160 taxes will be inationary in the short term,
more than half of last year’s acquisitions,
million and $1.6 billion. Large divestitures others believe they are necessary to wean
accounting for $3.2 billion of the total.
included TPG Capital’s sale of its 17% stake consumers off unsustainable government
However, acquisitions were decidedly in Shenzhen Development Bank for $2.3 subsidies. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI)
smaller than in prior years, with the largest billion, CDH China Holding’s sale of Meihua recent decision to increase the cash reserve
one being Hopu Investment Management’s Biotechnology Group for $848 million and from 3% to 3.75% will reduce liquidity in the
$790 million purchase of a 20% stake in the $285 million sale of a majority position banking system as well as increase the cost
China Mengniu Dairy — markedly smaller in Hejian Technology by NIF SMBC Ventures. of borrowing from banks. Should this not
than 2008’s largest transaction: Arcapita China’s largest IPOs of 2009 were Yingde be sufcient, the RBI may consider further
Bank’s $2 billion acquisition of Honiton Gases Group, Kaisa Group Holdings and measures, including hikes in benchmark
Energy Holdings. Other large transactions PCD Stores, with proceeds of $470 million, interest rates, which would increase the cost
included WL Ross & Co.’s stake in China $445 million and $434 million, respectively.

2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge 24


Foreign private equity acquisitions as a percentage of country deal value total Co., UTI Venture and Citigroup Private
100% Equity’s $100 million investment in Ind-
100% 100% 98%
Barath Power Ifra and Blackstone’s $64
90% 92%
79% million investment in Gateway Rail Freight.
80% 82%

70%
67% 69% PE interest in infrastructure sectors should
56%
59% continue, while strong growth should
60%
56% 48% 50% spark interest in consumer products and
50% 45% 45%
48% services, nance, health care, education
40% 31%
and green technologies, the last driven by
35% 32%
28%
30% the government’s focus on cutting carbon
20% 20%
25%
17% emissions.
16%
10% 6%
0% 0%
0%
3% 0% PE rms exited relatively few Indian
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 companies last year, with just four trade
Œnia China Brazil sales and two IPOs. Adani Power raised
Source: Dealogic
$626 billion in its initial offering, and DB
>
>
>
  >
> > 
>> >
>>
>  
>
 > >>Œ X> Corp. — a professional services rm — raised
China or Brazil.
$82 million. Only one trade sale, the
disposition of an 8% stake in Shriram City
of credit and thus curtail the increase in Unlike China and Brazil, which have Union Finance by an investor group led by
demand and ination. witnessed an increase in acquisitions by local ChrysCapital of Mauritius, disclosed the
PE rms, India attracts a greater proportion value, $25 million.
Moody’s believes the new budget bodes well
of foreign PE rms. 3i, Baring Private Equity,
for India’s sovereign rating. When combined Looking ahead, India should continue to be
HSBC Private Equity, Standard Chartered
with a rebounding economy, a stronger a growth market, with minority investments
Private Equity and Citigroup Private
rupee and a well-timed exit from scal the norm. However, buyouts, currently
Equity were active last year. Its legal and
stimuli, the proposed measures could reduce approximately 5% of all transactions
governance systems have long attracted PE
India’s debt to 70% of GDP in the next two to involving Indian targets, may gain
investors from around the world.
three years, down from the current 78%. acceptance longer term. Exits should pick up
According to Dealogic, last year, PE rms over the next few years, as rms look to take
Unlike China, which faces structural change
invested $1 billion in India, a decline from prots on investments made between 2004
as it shifts from an export-driven to a
2008 levels when PE rms spent $5.5 and 2006. Regulation is likely to increase to
consumer-driven economy, India’s growth
billion. While the technology and business meet global investor demand for increased
has long been dependent on domestic
process outsourcing sectors have historically transparency, better risk management and
demand, even as exports have risen.
been PE’s main investment targets, only more sophisticated internal controls.
However, its major weakness has been
one of the 10 largest acquisitions last
infrastructure, with basic transportation, Since India’s banks largely avoided the credit
year — Future Capital Holdings’ $46 million
power grid and irrigation systems lagging freeze that plagued developed countries,
acquisition of Tikona Digital Networks —
behind those of China. In a welcome access to capital has not been a signicant
was in information technology, while six
move, the government plans to increase issue. In turning to PE, Indian companies are
of the top 10 involved infrastructure-
infrastructure spending by INR1.74 trillion seeking partners who can bring them sector
related industries like transportation and
($38 billion) this year. knowledge, operating expertise and access
construction. These include the following
minority investments: 3i Group’s $161 to new markets and technologies.
million investment in Krishnapatnam Port

25 2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge


Regulatory and
tax reform: slow
process, wide-
ranging impact
Regulatory reform initiatives, aimed at estimates the directive could
reducing systemic risk in the global nancial cost PE and hedge funds
system, have major implications for PE rms up to €22 billion in initial The directive could limit choice
operating in all of the world’s key regions. charges and €4 billion in
Pressures to bolster banks’ capital reserves, annual compliance costs.
for EU investors, by denying
increase transparency, and develop tax
Since the draft directive
managers based outside the EU a
structures that are tighter, substantive
and sustainable are being felt in all major
was issued in April 2009, common fund-raising “passport” for
both the former Swedish
markets.
and the current Spanish
marketing their funds in the EU.
Global regulatory developments. Perhaps Presidents of the
the most controversial and far-ranging European Council have submitted hundreds
increasing capital requirements for
regulatory proposal is the EU’s proposed of amendments. The directive must thus
banks, and placing limits on some of
AIFM directive, which would increase be viewed as a work in progress, and it is
their riskier activities. In July 2009, the
nancial reporting and compliance costs not known which of the more contentious
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
for all rms operating in the EU, and could provisions will be in the nal text when it is
approved new trading book capital rules as
drastically change how PE rms operate issued later this year.
part of its program to strengthen the Basel
there. Among other things, the directive
Financial industry reform bills before the US II regulatory capital framework. Among
would require foreign-based rms to use
Congress also include new regulations on PE other things, the new rules introduce
an independent, Europe-based rm to
rms. The US House and Senate bills would higher risk weights for collateralized loan
value their European funds, and to keep
eliminate the “private advisor” exemption and debt obligations (CLOs and CDOs) to
all European PE assets in an independent,
and require most rms to register with the better reect their inherent risk, and raises
Europe-based depository. It would also
Securities Exchange and Commission (SEC). standards for capturing the risks inherent in
increase disclosure requirements for
SEC registration and reporting requirements securitization activities. Additional standards
portfolio companies, impose stiffer capital
are not expected to have much of an that enhance capital buffers, strengthen
requirements on EU-based rms, and cap
impact on large funds — some of which have the quality of bank capital and introduce
the amount of leverage.
voluntarily registered with the SEC — but new leverage ratios are expected. The new
The directive could limit choice for EU could be onerous and costly for newer, trading book rules, which take effect at the
investors, by denying managers based smaller funds. end of 2010, could make it more difcult to
outside the EU a common fund-raising sell collateralized loan obligations and thus
On the accounting front, Financial
“passport” for marketing their funds in the limit bank lending to PE.
Accounting Standard No. 167 (FAS 167)
EU, unless they can prove they are subject
has not been fully implemented in the US, New capital and securitization requirements
to sufciently rigorous regulation in their
with its application deferred for certain of bills before the US Congress are likely
home countries. This would be especially
investment entities, including many PE to have a farther ranging impact on the
harsh on US- and Cayman Islands-based
rms. This deferral will give the Financial industry. These bills require nancial
fund managers, as these jurisdictions are
Accounting Standard Board and the institutions that originate and securitize
not perceived to regulate the industry
International Accounting Standard Board asset-backed securities to maintain reserves
sufciently. Ultimately, the directive could
more time to dene the relationship equal to between 5% and 10% of the credit
affect where funds are domiciled, as it
between principal and agent, and resolve risk. Requiring banks to hold more reserves
effectively requires non-EU rms to operate
concerns that the implementation of FAS for asset-backed securities, including CLOs,
their EU funds separately from the rest of
167 in its current state might reduce, could limit the amount of leverage available
their funds.
rather than increase, the transparency of a to fund PE acquisitions, as banks have
The directive, which is scheduled to take rm’s nancial statements by requiring it to depended on a strong market for structured
effect in July 2012, will affect the operating consolidate certain funds it advises. nance products to move leveraged loans
models of traditional buyout funds and those off their balance sheets. Last year, equity
Global banking reforms. To reduce the
employing other investment styles. If passed contributions to LBOs averaged 46%,
likelihood of another nancial collapse,
in its current form, the European Parliament the highest level in the last decade, and
governments around the world are

2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge 26


signicantly above 39% in 2008 and the pre- The Chinese tax system, the subject of their holdings. But opinions differ on what
recession 10-year average of 32.1%.8 extensive reform in 2008, continued to constitutes an independent valuation, how
evolve in 2009, with more sophisticated fair value should be dened and how often
The Volcker Rule, full details of which have
restructuring rules and clarications in a it should be measured. The International
yet to be spelled out, is intended to prohibit
number of areas that created tax planning Private Equity and Venture Capital Valuation
bank holding companies from engaging in
opportunities. While it is still possible to Board (IPEV) has recently updated its
proprietary trading and running hedge funds
defer taxes on the equity portion of a guidelines on how LPs should estimate the
or PE rms. Limits on proprietary trading
transaction and thus obtain a tax-effective fair value of their holdings and essentially
are designed to keep banks out of riskier,
restructuring, rms must meet strict eliminated the marketability discount by
more highly leveraged activities, while
requirements and are subject to a three-year stating that when all features of a portfolio
keeping banks from engaging in PE seems
transfer restriction on certain cross-border company are appropriately considered
aimed at limiting bank size and ensuring that
restructuring transactions. in determining fair value — including its
they focus on core activities. If adopted, the
marketability or lack thereof — no further
Volcker Rule could accelerate the sale or Like authorities in other Asian jurisdictions,
discount is necessary.
spin-off of bank PE holdings and operations, the actions of Chinese tax authorities in
with a possible impact on industry 2009 focused more on substance than on Striking the right balance between GP
consolidation. In February 2010, Citigroup form, especially with respect to the need and LP interests. In the heyday of the mid-
announced plans to sell or split off its $10 for business purpose when assessing the decade LBO boom, the constructive tension
billion Citi Private Equity unit. taxation of gains and applying for tax treaty that had existed between the interests of
benets on withholding taxes. Consistent GPs and LPs clearly began to tip in favor
Global tax initiatives. Governments
with this approach, late last year China of GPs. Even those with less-than-stellar
around the world are looking for new tax
imposed an effective tax of up to 12.5% on records were able to negotiate attractive
sources as they shift from scal stimulus
indirect sales of Chinese shares. terms with respect to carried interest,
to belt tightening. More than in some other
management and transaction fees. The
jurisdictions, tax authorities in the Asia- This represents the rst time China asserted
“Great Recession” gave investors a chance
Pacic region have become increasingly its right to tax such gains under certain
to rethink the relationship, and last fall, the
focused on PE prots as a potential source circumstances, but it has provided limited
Institutional Limited Partners Association
of revenue. Australian and South Korean guidance on how these new rules would
(ILPA) unveiled a set of principles designed
authorities recently challenged taxes due work in practice.
to restore and strengthen the alignment
on prots from some high-prole portfolio
All of this will affect valuation models and, of LP and GP interests. The ILPA’s best
company exits. While this marked the
ultimately, investment decisions, as PE practices include:
continuation of a trend in South Korea,
buyers weigh higher or uncertain tax bills on
the challenge by Australia’s Revenue • Using management fees exclusively for
future exits.
Department was less expected and was the benefit of the fund and keeping them
followed by amended guidance on the In the US, proposals to tax carried interest reasonable
distinction between revenue and capital as ordinary income continue, with long-term
• Requiring claw-backs, when necessary, to
gains for tax purposes. Australia also implications. Such a move would not only
be gross of taxes and repaid in a timely
challenged the practice of channeling prots present PE partners with increased tax bills,
manner
to offshore entities in tax-friendly havens, but could also start a brain drain, as some
proposing that this be treated as a form PE rms would not be able to compete for • Recommending a waterfall distribution
of tax avoidance in some instances. These talent without being able to offer recruits formula in which GPs do not receive
challenges point to an underlying risk for the prospect of having their PE earnings carried interest until LPs have received all
rms making acquisitions in the world’s taxed at more favorable rates. contributed capital plus a preferred return
growth markets. In both cases, tax laws were
Valuation under a microscope in all • Giving a supermajority of LPs the
initially relaxed to attract foreign investment.
regions. Throughout the world, LPs have authority to dissolve a fund or remove
But when prots grew, governments moved
demanded increased transparency to its GP
in to capture a portion of the gain.
shed light on the underlying values of

8. Standard & Poor’s LCD, February 2010.

27 2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge


• Disclosing detailed valuation and financial However, PE rms realize that
information on portfolio companies on a some changes have to be
quarterly basis made and have accepted PE rms realize that some changes
that there will be more
While some of these proposals are have to be made and have accepted
regulatory oversight. Firms
controversial, and have been described as a
are focusing on improving that there will be more regulatory
“big leap” for PE, most accept that at a time
their back-ofce
of increased LP power, some rebalancing of oversight. Firms are focusing on
operations to meet new
interests is inevitable.
regulatory requirements improving their back-ofce operations
Although many pieces of the global in Europe and the US
to meet new regulatory requirements
regulatory, tax and governance puzzle and to meet investor
are moving at the same time, injecting demands for clearer, and investors’ demands.
complexity and uncertainty into the PE more consistent, more
market, it is unlikely that governments complete nancial
want to seriously damage this golden reporting and
goose. The basic PE model of acquiring enhanced risk management. These steps
control positions in undervalued businesses, will put PE rms on sounder footing as they
bringing in strong management, focusing on engage in succession planning, improve
operating efciency and exiting at a prot relations with LPs and decide whether their
will remain intact. As President Obama has next step involves obtaining a permanent
acknowledged, PE has an important role to source of capital through a public offering of
play in the economy. their own.

2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge 28


29 2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge
2010: outlook
for private
equity
The PE industry’s agility and resilience in Portfolio company bolt-on acquisitions equity contributions are likely to remain
adapting to the adverse market conditions exhibited some activity last year and closer to the historic high of over 50%
of the last two years will serve it well as appear to have picked up this year, as than the historic average of 33%. Equity-
the market continues to recover. So far, PE rms seize opportunities to purchase only transactions continue to occur, but
the outlook for 2010 is positive, with weaker competitors as well as non-core with the understanding that the acquired
leverage returning to some markets, the businesses that corporations look to sell. company will be refinanced within a
value of acquisitions increasing and exit More corporate trade sales are expected year, creating a more typical buyout
opportunities on the rise. in 2010 as the market fundamentals for capital structure.
buyouts continue to improve.
We expect the following trends to emerge
With the US Fed committed to keeping
in 2010:
A key question lingers as to what banks — interest rates near zero for the rest of the
• A more robust market with larger particularly government-owned banks — year, investor demand for high-yield bonds
acquisitions and more exits. Through will do, now that they own a substantial should continue to be strong, making it
March 2010, the disclosed value of global number of non-core businesses. Following likely that the wave of portfolio company
PE acquisitions rose 59% from $17 billion prior recessions, PE rms were often the renancing started last year will extend
in 2009 to $27 billion, with the average preferred buyers of such companies, but through 2010.
deal size increasing from $70 million to so far there is little evidence that history
$157 million. The pace of acquisitions will repeat itself. Two factors could limit leverage for new
should continue to climb through the acquisitions in 2010. Should the market
remainder of the year as industry PE-backed exits are on the rise. Globally for CLOs remain weak, it could effectively
dynamics improve. With larger equity there were 104 trade sales through 29 cap the amount of money available for
contributions, limited financing options March 2010, including some high-prole acquisition nancing, as banks would be
and lower lending multiples expected to secondary sales in Europe, compared with required to keep the loans on their balance
continue through 2010, acquisitions will 78 for the full rst quarter of 2009. While sheets rather than securitize them. Later
be markedly smaller, compared to the pre- there was one IPO in the rst quarter this year, the Fed is expected to slow the
recession peak of $706 million reached of 2009, 22 IPOs were listed in the amount of new money funneled to banks,
in the second quarter of 2007. The pace rst three months of 2010. Should this further limiting the lending pool. Since
of acquisitions should continue to climb momentum continue, PE exit activity in leverage drives acquisition activity, its
through the remainder of the year as 2010 will end the year signicantly higher availability will determine the degree of
industry dynamics improve. than in 2009. deal momentum in 2010.
• Improved financing and liquidity. • Stronger portfolio companies. For the
That said, acquisition size should
Lending multiples are slowly increasing most part, PE portfolio companies have
steadily increase as the global recovery
as banks return to financing buyouts and weathered the economic downturn
gains strength. Dealogic data suggest
relax restrictions on leveraged loans. through a combination of revenue
the disparity between acquisition
Standard & Poor’s reports that lending protection, production efficiencies,
and divestiture size is greatest in
multiples for PE acquisitions averaged cost cutting and careful working capital
weaker markets, when PE rms have
4.1 through February 2010, up from management. Lower commodity prices,
opportunities to make smart acquisitions
3.9 in the last quarter of 2009, with sympathetic lenders and opportunities
at bargain prices. Similar to 2001,
some banks recently lending up to five to refinance thanks to a strong high-
in 2009, the price of the average
times EBITDA, a level last seen in 2006. yield bond market have helped ease
acquisition was $100 million, while the
While the lending pool is constrained in financial pressures. PE firms have also
average divestiture fetched $321 million.
many parts of the world, in other areas, taken a hands-on approach to protecting
Comparable gures for 2006 were $424
including the Nordic countries and the US, invested capital. Many have expanded
million and $396 million, respectively. This
lending practices are returning to normal, their in-house operations teams and hired
suggests the gap between the average
with stapled financing and dividend recaps seasoned executives and consultants with
price PE rms pay for new acquisitions
in the US, reminiscent of 2006. However, deep industry expertise to assist portfolio
and the price they receive on divestitures
will narrow as the economy improves.

2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge 30


companies strategically and operationally, • Emerging markets become more than direct investments in infrastructure
in growing revenues, improving operating important. Emerging markets led the assets. As LPs seek investments with
efficiencies and boosting profits. worldwide economic recovery and have stable cash flows and lower risk, PE-
seen their share of PE transactions sponsored infrastructure funds could
Firms will continue to work on improving increase in the last decade. They could become the “utilities” of alternative
portfolio company performance this year gain a larger share of deal activity if investment portfolios, generating
as they look to right-size capital structures more firms conclude that the prospect dependable, longer-term cash flows, while
and increase revenue prior to exiting some of earning better returns outweighs risks growth capital and buyout funds produce
of the businesses purchased at the height arising from political, legal and structural larger, shorter- to medium-term payoffs.
of the last cycle. To retain management market uncertainties. Some analysts have From 2005 to 2009, infrastructure funds
talent at these companies, PE rms will even contended that emerging market raised $115.3 billion globally.
focus on repairing incentives, especially investments may carry less risk than those
• Industry adapts as regulatory proposals
in cases where existing compensation in developed markets because many of
proliferate. PE firms are coming to terms
arrangements are under water. the destabilizing factors that caused the
with more regulatory oversight. Certain
“Great Recession” either did not exist
• Smaller funds as firms deploy capital. proposals, such as registration and some
or were not as prevalent in emerging
With $500 billion of dry powder at the increased reporting requirements, are not
economies.
end of 2009, some PE firms will not need likely to have a major impact on larger
to raise new funds for several years. funds. However, other proposals could
Emerging markets primarily present
However, firms marketing funds in 2010 fundamentally affect how the PE industry
minority investment opportunities for
may find it easier, as the State Street operates in various parts of the world.
growth capital, with minority stakes
Private Equity Index has posted positive
comprising two-thirds of last year’s
quarter-to-quarter performance since The EU’s AIFM directive is of particular
investments in Brazil, China and India.
June 2009, and most studies suggest concern. If its more controversial
Deals are typically small by Western
LPs will be maintaining or increasing provisions pass, the directive could
standards and, oftentimes, more difcult
their PE commitments in 2010. However, isolate Europe and reduce the size of its
to negotiate. However, opportunities for
there will be a price. LPs are seeking PE industry. By raising compliance costs,
control acquisitions can vary sharply from
better reporting, more rigorous risk imposing stiffer capital requirements,
year to year, country to country. Control
management and more favorable fee increasing governance and transparency
investments are picking up in India, and
arrangements from their GPs. Innovative requirements, and making it more difcult
they may become more common in China
GPs will see these developments as an for managers based outside the EU to
as foreign-based rms form local currency
opportunity to improve their fund-raising market their funds in the EU, the directive
funds to attract local investors with the
processes. The time it takes to raise a fund could effectively limit fund-raising in EU
capital and inuence needed to complete
will be significantly longer than it did prior countries.
transactions typically not available to
to the recession.
foreign PE rms. Competition for funds
The pace of reform in other parts of the
to invest in China should remain erce as
Given these trends, funds closing this year world is slower as governments focus on
the number of funds domiciled in China
are likely to be smaller than those closing curtailing risks that were responsible for
increases and China’s SWFs become more
at the top of the market. Although buyout the collapse of the global nancial system.
active abroad.
funds will continue to constitute 40% to While some reforms are likely to pass
50% of all funds raised, growth capital, • Infrastructure opportunities abound. in the US, whether perennial proposals
industry-focused and regionally focused Infrastructure funds should see better such as taxing carried interest as ordinary
funds could gain share as institutional opportunities and increased deal income make it into nal legislation
investors sharpen their investment activity in 2010 as the global economic remain to be seen. Tax pressures on the
outlook. recovery continues and the effects of industry are likely to rise around the world
infrastructure-focused stimuli in China and as governments seek to increase tax
the US begin to take hold. PE’s core skills revenue in order to reduce large decits
in managing portfolio investments should brought on by stimulus spending.
make infrastructure funds more attractive

31 2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge


Faced with the prospect of increased investor reporting requirements. These
regulation and LP demands for more improvements are particularly important
transparency, PE rms are making efforts for rms seeking permanent capital
to offer investors more comprehensive through a public offering.
nancial information on a regular basis,
along with improved risk management, As regulatory reform proposals move
and discussions on their valuation forward, pressures to exempt PE from
methods. Enhancing back-ofce some of the rules proposed for hedge
operations and linking them to front-ofce funds are likely to increase, as most
and portfolio company operations authorities believe the PE industry — unlike
is essential to managing enterprise the hedge fund industry — played no role
risk and meeting regulatory and in precipitating the global nancial crisis.

Ernst & Young’s perspective


As we look backward to 2009 and forward to the future, the PE industry has
weathered one of its toughest economic periods. The industry’s core value proposition
— using engaged ownership and aligned incentives to maximize returns for the long-
term investor — remains intact, as rms scour the globe for attractive opportunities.
Firms that will thrive in the complex 21st-century world will be those nimble and
creative enough to seize the opportunities a difcult and uncertain economy presents.
Because the PE industry has many such rms, we believe it will remain an important
asset class that draws signicant investor interest in 2010 and beyond.

2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge 32


About Ernst & Young’s Global
Private Equity practice
An enterprise approach to meeting the
evolving needs of private equity
Ernst & Young’s Global Private Equity experience, along with the support
practice offers an enterprise tailored of 144,000 dedicated professional
approach that addresses the unique services providers across audit, tax,
needs of private equity funds, their transactions and advisory service lines,
transactions processes and investment we can meet the evolving requirements
stewardship. With a global network of private equity rms and their portfolio
of rms including more than 8,000 companies from acquisition to exit.
dedicated transactions professionals and
more than 20 years of private equity

Ernst & Young services for private equity

Fund-raising
Accounting and
tax structuring Valuations

Operations and Funds


Fund assurance
information technology

Sellside Transactions Buyside

Exit readiness Transition to


Portfolio LBO vehicle

Distressed
services Operations/
working capital

Assurance and governance

33 2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge


Key contacts

Global Area Emerging markets


John Harley Americas Brazil
Global Private Equity Leader Jeffrey Bunder Carlos Asciutti
jharley@uk.ey.com Americas Private Equity Leader Partner, Transaction Advisory Services
+44 20 9751 5115 jeffrey.bunder@ey.com carlos.asciutti@br.ey.com
+1 212 773 2889 +5511 9652 7697
Philip Bass
Global Private Equity Markets Leader Europe China
philip.bass@ey.com John Harley Robert Partridge
+1 212 773 5186 Global Private Equity Leader Far East Private Equity Leader
jharley@uk.ey.com robert.partridge@hk.ey.com
+44 20 9751 5115 +852 2846 9973

Far East India


Robert Partridge Rajiv Memani
Far East Private Equity Leader India Private Equity Leader
robert.partridge@hk.ey.com rajiv.memani@in.ey.com
+852 2846 9973 +91 124 464 4112

Japan
Michael Buxton
Japan Private Equity Leader
michael.buxton@jp.ey.com
+81 3 5401 6406

Oceania
Bryan Zekulich
Oceania Private Equity Leader
bryan.zekulich@au.ey.com
+61 2 9248 5833

2010 global private equity watch: new horizons emerge 34


Ernst & Young

Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory

About Ernst & Young


Ernst & Young is a global leader in assurance, tax,
transaction and advisory services. Worldwide,
our 144,000 people are united by our shared
values and an unwavering commitment to quality.
We make a difference by helping our people, our
clients and our wider communities achieve their
potential.
Ernst & Young refers to the global organization of
member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited,
each of which is a separate legal entity.
Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company
limited by guarantee, does not provide services
to clients. For more information about our
organization, please visit www.ey.com.

For more information about our private equity


practice, please visit www.ey.com/privateequity.

© 2010 EYGM Limited. All rights reserved.


EYG No. FR0002

This publication contains information in summary form and is


therefore intended for general guidance only. It is not intended to
be a substitute for detailed research or the exercise of professional
judgment. Neither EYGM Limited nor any other member of the
global Ernst & Young organization can accept any responsibility for
loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as
a result of any material in this publication. On any specific matter,
reference should be made to the appropriate advisor.

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