Académique Documents
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Shareholding Pattern
21..7%
11.4% 52.3%
14.6%
1
Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research
Stock Idea – Asian Paints Ltd.
The Indian paint industry has grown at an India paint industry: growth in volumes
average of 15.3% from FY05 to FY10.
18% 18%
16% 16%
14% 13% 14%
13%
Source: Company
The competition in the paint industry is India’s paint industry: market share of major players
becoming more intense with the entry of
foreign players like Jotun, Nippon & Sherwin Asian Paints Berger Kansai ICI (Akzo Nobel) Others Unorganized sector
Williams.
35.0% 32.4%
5.0% 10.8%
6.0% 10.8%
2
Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research
Stock Idea – Asian Paints Ltd.
4.2%
1.4% 1.2%
-5.1%
Source: Company
2%
12%
17%
50%
19%
Source: Company
3
Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research
Stock Idea – Asian Paints Ltd.
Industrial coating accounts for ~25% of the Second JV with PPG industries
~Rs 17,000 cr paints segment and has a high Asian Paints approved plans to enhance its fourteen year relationship with PPG Industries Inc,
presence of unorganized players. Major USA, to accelerate growth of the non-decorative coatings businesses in India. As part of this
organized players in this segment include arrangement, Asian Paints and PPG will enhance their existing non-decorative coatings presence
Kansai Nerolac, ICI and Jotun Paints apart in India by expanding their current 50-50 joint venture relationship - Asian PPG Industries Ltd
from Asian Paints Industrial Coating Ltd. (APPG) and also establish a second 50-50 joint venture. The modalities are being worked on. The
(APICL), a 100% subsidiary of Asian Paints. arrangement is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to be completed during CY2011.
APPG currently services the Indian transportation coatings markets and this change will expand its
scope to additionally service the marine and consumer packaging markets. The second joint
venture will service the industrial containers and light industrial coatings markets. The two joint
ventures together will serve all customers for non-decorative products in the Indian market. The
JV's would leverage PPG's technology and global customer relationships while continuing to build
on Asian Paints' customer base, manufacturing footprint, distribution channels and local
relationships. Asian Paints and PPG have agreed that Asian Paints will take the lead in the second
venture and PPG will take the lead in APPG in order to utilize their respective strengths to best
capture the growth in infrastructure development and the economic boom in India.
Geographically diversified
The Asian Paints group operates in five regions across the world i.e. South Asia, South East Asia,
South Pacific, Middle East & Caribbean through its five corporate brands viz. Asian Paints, Berger
International, SCIB Paints, Apco Coatings and Taubmans. The company along with its
subsidiaries has operations in 17 countries across the world with 23 paint manufacturing facilities,
servicing consumers in 65 countries. It is the largest paint company in eleven countries.
Middle East Caribbean South Asia South East Asia South Pacific
15.4%
53.6%
16.1%
Source: Company
Region Countries
Middle East Egypt, Oman, Bahrain & UAE
Caribbean Barbados, Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago
South Asia Bangladesh, Nepal & Sri Lanka
In 9MFY11, International operations
accounted for Rs 756.7 cr or ~13% of Asian South East Asia Singapore
Paints’ sales.
South Pacific Fiji, Solomon Islands, Samoa, Tonga & Vanuatu
Source: Company
4
Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research
Stock Idea – Asian Paints Ltd.
5
Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research
Stock Idea – Asian Paints Ltd.
Though the APAT has remained steady for the Paints products: volume growth
past few quarters, the APAT margins have
shown a dip due to high raw material costs and 500000 20.0%
17.7% 16.8% 411369
higher depreciation.
400000 354370
316871 15.0%
12.1% 241903 282602 16.1%
300000
220284 11.8% 10.0%
187221 12.1%
200000 184622 9.8%
5.0%
100000 1.4%
0 0.0%
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
120000 12.0%
98972 97963
100000 84512 87240 90147 10.0%
75771 78946 80634
80000 8.0%
9.8%
4.8% 6.0%
60000 4.2% 3.2% 3.3%
2.1% 4.0%
40000 2.0%
20000 -0.1% 0.0%
-1.0%
0 -2.0%
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
Robust performance was seen in the
Decorative paint business though the Sales realization/kilo litre (Rs) Growth (YoY)
Industrial paint business did not match that
performance.
Decorative Business
In Q3FY11 the performance was mostly good in all parts of the country.
The demand for interior and exterior emulsions was particularly good.
The demand for Enamel was higher than anticipated.
Industrial business
Demand condition for Industrial paints was challenging.
Automotive business grew in line with the market.
International operations
Demand conditions for International business was challenging in some areas. However,
South Asia has shown a decent growth.
Net Sales & operating income growth was flat in the period April – Dec 2010 compared
to 9 months of the previous year.
6
Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research
Stock Idea – Asian Paints Ltd.
Company Strengths
Asian Paints Market leader in the paints industry
ICI (Akzo Nobel) Strong in premium end paints/emulsion
Berger Paints Focused on enamels and lower end paints
Kansai Nerolac Leader in Industrial paints, with half the sales coming from auto industry
Nippon Largest paint manufacturer in the world with premium technology. No. 1 in China.
115.6
104.0
96.3
91.8
82.9 85.7
76.7 77.8
7
Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research
Stock Idea – Asian Paints Ltd.
There is a demand supply gap in case of The input costs have shown a northward trend since Q1FY10 but the surge has been particularly
Titanium Dioxide. There is no greenfield harsh in CY2010. Prices of raw materials like titanium dioxide, solvent and crude related inputs
capacity on the anvil and it would almost take have increased sharply.
a couple of years before a brownfield
additional capacity starts operating. Titanium Input cost index
dioxide accounts for 20-25% of the total input
cost.
103.9 104.5
100.0
98.5
94.4
91.7 92.7
91.4
Source: Company
Asian Paints is by far the largest paint company in India, with almost one-third of the total market
share. It also ranks among the top ten decorative coating companies in the world. With the Indian
economy expanding at a fast rate and the housing & infrastructure sectors expected to attract big
investments, the paint industry volumes are expected to grow at a healthy 16% in FY12.This bodes
well for Asian Paints, the market leader of the industry. The company also has huge expansion
plans. After commencing operations at its new facility in Haryana recently, it plans to set up mega
projects in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. Asian Paints boasts of an extensive distribution
network comprising of 27,000 retailers. The company is fully capable of negating the increase in
price of raw materials, by increasing the price of its products. This was amply demonstrated when
it raised prices four times in CY2010. Asian Paints is also planning to start its second joint venture
with PPG Industries of USA in CY2011. These two JV’s would provide the entire spectrum of
paints for the industrial sector. A is also geographically well diversified servicing customers in 65
countries across the globe.
. Asian Paints has a market capitalization of Rs 24264.4 cr. and is trading at a share price of Rs.
2529.65. The consolidated TTM EPS is Rs. 94.4 translating into a TTM PE of 26.8. The price to
book value stands at 10.1. The stock is an attractive buy considering the growth prospects of the
industry as well as the company. We expect the company to register an EPS of Rs 115.9 for FY12
on the basis of strong volume growth and pricing power. This makes the stock currently trade at
The demand in the paint industry is seasonal
21.8x FY12.
to some extent. While the demand dips in the
monsoon season, it is the maximum in the
festive season We recommend a “BUY” on the stock with an investment horizon of 9-12 months and target
price of Rs. 3014.
8
Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research
Stock Idea – Asian Paints Ltd.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths Weaknesses
• Market leader: Asian Paints is the largest paint • Industrial business performing below par: The
company in India with a market share of 32.4%. It is industrial business of the company has performed below
also the 3rd largest in Asia and among the top 10 expectations, though the decorative business has done
decorative paint companies in the world. very well. The automotive business has performed in
• Capacity expansion plans: The company has already line with expectations. Subject to regulatory approvals,
commenced its Rohtak operations recently that has a Asian Paints is planning to have a second joint venture
capacity of 1.5 lakh kl per annum. In addition to this it with PPG industries. Both the joint ventures would
has plans for greenfield expansion of 4 lakh tonnes in cover the entire gamut of the non-decorative paint
Maharashtra and 1 lakh tonnes per annum in AP. business. Asian Paints would leverage PPG's technology
• Pricing power: Asian paints has had four price hikes in and customer relationships around the globe.
CY2010. It intends to raise product prices again if the • Hiccups in international business: The middle east
raw material prices keep going northwards. business is being hampered by strife in Egypt &
• Manufactures PAN: The company manufactures Bahrain.The Caribbean sales also dipped in Q3FY11.
Phthalic Anhydride (PAN), a key raw material. But Asia & South Pacific business has been doing well.
• Wide distribution network: Comprising of 90 depots • International presence restricted to small pockets:
and 27,000 retailers. Asian Paints need to spread its business to big centres
worldwide, to become a true multinational.
Opportunities Threats
• Fast growing Indian economy: The fast growing • Competition from the world majors: Major world
Indian economy and a growth in the realty and players like Jotun, Nippon and Sherwin Williams are
construction industries presents a big opportunity for now competiting with Asian Paints in the domestic
Asian Paints. Indian markets.
• Shorter repainting cycles: The growing affluence of • Competition from the unorganized sector: The
the Indian people is resulting in shorter repainting cycles unorganized sector, though fragmented holds a ~35%
benefiting the paint industry. share of the Indian paint industry and gives tough
• Growth in the tier II and III towns: The paint demand competition to established players.
in these towns is growing at a faster rate than the tier I • Rising cost of raw materials: The input costs for Asian
cities. Paints and the other players in the industry are rising.
• Steady growth in industry volumes: The paint industry The price of crude derivatives and titanium dioxide, two
has shown an average volume growth of 15.3% in the key inputs has seen a sharp upswing.
past six years and the growth is expected to be 16% in • Slowdown in the economic growth: The paint industry
FY12. fortunes are positively co-related to the growth of the
• Expected decrease in the use of distemper in future: economy.
Increase in enamels & emulsion use would have a • Unstable political situation in middle east: This region
positive impact on company's margins. accounts for over 50% of company's international sales.
9
Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research
Stock Idea – Asian Paints Ltd.
Financials
10
Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research
Stock Idea – Asian Paints Ltd.
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11
Bajaj Capital Centre for Investment Research