Daily DAX USG shutdown looms. ECB raises rates as expected.

pected. IMF warns on oil prices (today CLK1 at $111). Treasuries fall,
. gold and silver rally to new highs. Markets are projecting risks of inflation, with food and fuel prices rising. Yet,
Journal housing prices are flat (or falling) across the board. Commercial construction is also slow. No big data releases tmw.
08 Apr 2011 Range studies: Aggressive 135; conservative 55; Extreme estimate H 7310 L 7132 Calendar: Ger Current Account, trade data

FDAX June 2011

Trade ideas:
Short -- On a failure below 7245. Effective
volume must confirm as aggregate No new development here, but
negative, or if positive, balance must an extension of the range with
reverse strongly. Target 7205. Confidence a fairly normal distribution and
is low.
a lower close (-0.50%), which
Short -- On decreasing volume at 6266. EV Aggressive range H
suggests Friday will close within
balance will likely be very positive for the
day, so decrease must be pronounced. the three day distribution.
Will prefer a strong negative delta for the
signal time period. Target 7235 and then
7205, depending on the price action.
Confidence is low.
Long -- On a push above 7266, with Conservative range H
increasing volume. Wait for a pullback and
target 7300, depending on price action.
Long -- On a bounce at 7200 or 7192, on
increasing volume. Would prefer a strong
reversal from negative to positive delta.
Confidence is low.

Conservative range L

Aggressive range L

As always, keep CL, ES and 6E price action in view. Wait for signal and volume
confirmation.

Runaway gap from 7015 to 6980 may be filled in the next 8 trading days. (32% prob.)

Friday's focus: Bias continues to be long, considering the current constructive position of the index. However, a near term top
looks like it is in place and will hold tomorrow. Data releases will likely conform to expectations, so I do not anticipate any strong
moves as a result. Should something unexpected occur, the aggressive range estimates have a good probability of holding. No real
convincing trade ideas for me. Because the close is in the middle of the last two days' distribution, volume will be the key indicator
going forward.

The Lonely Trader

Disclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Lonely Trader
expressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information. Past
results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your capital.
 Range Studies for DAX 0611 For Friday, 08 April 2011
Previous day range 68.5 Comments:
Previous day pattern ID 0035 GMT: The opening gap was filled within the first 60 minutes of trade, with initial
Number of occurrences 28 resistance at the previous day's point of control. Stronger resistance appeared at the
previous day's high, with the rest of today's trading occurring below VWAP as sentiment
(last 200 days)
weighed across all markets. Tomorrow's trading will likely close within the weekly range,
Avg range after WS 169.9% or just above.
> 116.5 <
Prob of expansion → 67.9% Prob of contraction → 14.3% Prob of duplication → 17.9%
Projected expansion 135.5 Projected contraction 47.5 Projected duplication 68.0
( 197.6% ) ( 69.0% ) ( 99.0% )
Daily range studies Volume studies Time, price and event
3 days 74.8 Value area high 7261.0 Aggressive range est. 135.0
10 days 80.4 Point of control 7238.0 Conservative range est. 55.0
20 days 127.6 Value area low 72220.0 Aggressive range H 7310.9
50 days 110.3 Opening range 6.5 Conservative range H 7266.2
10 day max range 135.0 Initial balance 24.0 Today's H range est. 7270.0
0.70
10 day min range 38.0 R2 high vol node n/a Today's L range est. 7180.0
0.80
3/10 0.93 R1 high vol node 7235.0 Conservative range L 7176.8
1.00
10 day true high 7262.5 Pvt high vol node 7200.0 Aggressive range L 7132.1
5 day true high 7262.5 S1 high vol node 7172.5 1.20
3 day range pivot 7200.0
0.85
Yesterday's high 7261.0 S2 high vol node 7123.0 18 February swing high 7441
Yesterday's low 7192.5 6D VAH 7256.0 01 March cons. high 7383
5 day true low 7090.5 6D VPOC 7200.0 16 March swing low 6435
10 day true low 6885.0 6D VAL 7169.0
Yesterday's settlement 7200.5 3 day vol avg 125.2 German trade balance Med
Previous settlement 7236.5 10 day vol avg 117.1 German current account M-L
10 day range position 0.84 20 day vol avg 152.6 German export/import M-L

Today's Calendar is not very exciting -- I've indicated a medium event risk for several releases, but this only applies if there are
data surprises. Canada's employment data release may create some movement in the CAD, so that might be worth watching.

Calendar GMT Area Event Mkt Risk Exp Prev Remarks

Friday 0430 JP Bankruptcies JPY Low -9.4% JPY Pairs
0545 CH Unemployment (Mar) C, E Med 3.4% 3.6% Mild effect on DAX, fade move in CHF
0600 EU Ger trade balance (Feb) DAX Med 13B 10.1B May impact euro. Watch DAX at levels
EU Ger current account (Feb) DAX M-L 12B 7.2B Potential to move DAX 10 pts
EU German Ex-Im (Feb) DAX M-L Watch headlines of major DAX stocks
0830 UK PPI core (Mar, YoY) GBP Med 2.9% 3.1% Watch FTSE also -- may have knock-on
1100 CA Unemployment CAD High 7.7% 7.8% Watch USDCAD levels, fade contramoves
1215 CA Housing starts CAD Med 181K 181.9K See above

If anyone would like to see how I use volume as a signal for the DAX and other futures contracts, shoot me an email at the link
below and I'll send some screenshots. PS: Sorry about the date errors from yesterday. I'm still settling in from a long absence.

This is a work in progress. If you would like to Jay Schneider -- FX and futures, range studies
exchange ideas, or can lend a helping hand, San Diego Area, USA
Email
please contact me --> Blog

The Lonely Trader

Disclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Lonely Trader
expressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information. Past
results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your capital.