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Market Report

April 13, 2011


U.S.D.A. World Market Price:
World Market Price This week Last week 1 Year Ago 2010 Loan WMP and Loan Rates
LDP
Value Factors 04/13/10 04/06/10 04/14/10 Factors ‘10 crop L/G M/G
Long Grain To be 18.66 16.19 00.00 9.91 Yield 52.78/14.31 61.03/8.69
Medium Grain issued 18.34 15.90 00.00 9.65 WMP 11.74 12.34
Short Grain April 13 18.34 15.90 00.00 9.65 Loan 6.23 6.50
Brokens 8:30am 13.20 11.15 - 7.01 Difference (5.51) (5.74)

Posting: (April/May Shipment)


Southern U.S. - Long Grain Abbreviation Quote Basis
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $22.50 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $22.50 per cwt, BULK, FOB Vessel US Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $23.0 per cwt. containerized FOB US Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $550.00 per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $24.00 per cwt sacked delivered Miami FL
U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled #3/15 $21.50 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled #3/15 $540.00 per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX
U.S. #2 Long Grain Brown, max. 4% Broken, 75% yield #2/4/75 no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G Brown, max. 4% Broken, 88% yield #1/4/88 no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G MILLED, max. 4% Broken (except 0.8% damage) #1/4 Parb no quote per mt sacked FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G MILLED, max. 4% Broken #1/4 Parb $600.00 per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #2 Long Grain Paddy, 55/70 yield #2 55/70 $280.00 per mt bulk F.O.B. vessel NOLA
Long Grain, max. 20% broken, Hard milled (Ghana specs) #4/20/hm $20.50 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #5 L/G, max. 20% broken, WELL MILLED #5/20/wm $20.00 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
Southern U.S. - Medium Grain
U.S. #2 Medium Grain, max. 4% broken, Hard Milled #2/4% no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #2 Medium Grain Paddy, 58/69 yield #2 58/69 no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
Southern U.S. - Package Quality
Package Quality Parboiled L/G, max. 4% broken (0.8% damage) Pkg. Parb. $28.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Milled, max. 4% broken Pkg. L/G $21.50 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Milled, max. 4% broken (select variety) Pkg. L/G $24.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Brown Rice, max. 4% broken Pkg. Br. $31.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Medium Grain Milled, max. 4% broken Pkg. M/G $35.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
California - Medium Grain
U.S. #1 Medium Grain, max. 4% Broken #1/4 $835.00 per mt sacked containerized FOB Mill
U.S. #1 Medium Grain, max. 4% Broken #1/4 $875.00 per mt sacked containerized Oakland
U.S. #1 Medium Grain milled rice, except max. 7% Broken (Japan Specs) #1/7% $875.00 per mt sacked in 30kg bags FOB vessel
U.S. #3 Medium Grain Brown rice, max. 8% broken (Korea Specs) #3 Brown $810.00 per mt in totes containerized Oakland
U.S. #1 Medium Grain Paddy, 58/69 yield #1 58/69 $550.00 per mt bulk ex-spout Sacramento CA
California - Package Quality
Package Rice for Industrial Use and Repackers #1/4% $37-$38 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. Mill
U.S. South Brokens:
Flour Quality brokens Flour Qlty $15.00 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. rail
Pet Food Quality / #4 Brewers (milled) contracts M/A $13.50 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. rail
U.S. California Brokens:
Flour Quality brokens Flour Qlty $19.00 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. mill
Pet Food Quality / #4 Brewers contracts M/A $14.00 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. mill
Copyright © 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved www.creedrice.com

April 13, 2011 - Page 1 of 4


Far East Report
SOUTHEAST ASIAN MARKETS
I think the entire report this week will be rather Thailand Exports
brief as all markets are quiet. In Thailand, the Jan. 1 - Mar. 31, 2011: 3,012,021 mt
Songkran water festival (their new years) extends Jan. 1 - Mar. 31, 2010: 2,136,391 mt
from Wednesday to Friday, however most businesses Jan. 1 - April 1, 2009: 2,051,242 mt
take off all week. Consequently, other than the Iraq Thai Baht: 30:1 vs US Dollar
tender closing on Monday, there is not much going
on as prices are mostly sideways and seem to have
leveled out for the time being, with the exception of INDIA, PAKISTAN, AND BANGLADESH
fragrant brokens which have jumped some $20-30 per mt over Not much new to report here, as the $64,000
the past week or so ($430-435). question continues to focus on easing of the export
Early indications are that IGB will likely confirm 60,000 mt ban...lots of chatter, a few small exceptions, but no
of Thai 5% as their only purchase, in line with our projection sign of an opening on a larger scale. One concept raised by a
in our last few market reports. No price has been disclosed, government official working on the planning commission is to
but in sharp contrast to the previous three tenders, we believe place a tax on wheat, where there resides huge buffer stocks,
exporters offered in line with today’s quoted values. and perhaps do similar starting in the 4th quarter of 2011
100% B is quoted at $485-495 per mt FOB Bangkok; 5% is with rice, provided they harvest a bumper crop, similar to the
$465-480 (depending on whether it is old crop, main season record 100 MMT ‘08 crop. In the meantime, we look for small
harvest, or second crop 2011). Parboil prices are unchanged exceptions, albeit varietal in nature, for humanitarian
at $490-500. purposes, or to satisfy some of the demand in the
In Vietnam, the market is also relatively quiet as region they regard as traditional core markets, like
there was a Buddhist holiday today that closed the Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
market as it did in Burma. Prices are steady to firm In Bangladesh, there have been steady import
with 5% quoted at $$465-470 by some of the private tenders for the past 8-10 months. Those tenders have
local exporters, amid a MEP of $490. totaled about 600,000 mt of which about 400,000 mt -
For now, the Indonesian business is finished, and 500,000 mt have been bought. This does not include
The Philippines have yet to really get started. the 200,000 mt recently concluded with Thailand on a G to G
To summarize, I think these markets have found basis, nor the rumored 100,000 mt - 200,000 mt of Vinafood
at least a temporary bottom. If you go back to my parboil and white.
reports months ago, we have always maintained that In Pakistan, the market is also quiet with prices
there is fundamental support for Asian 5% rice at mostly sideways. IRRI-6 5% is quoted at $470-480
$450-475, with resistance at $550. I think this analysis still per mt FOB Karachi; whilst 25% is around $430-440.
stands true today. Generally speaking, aside from the Bengali activity, this
Whereas I do think prices could rally $10-15 per mt, I do region is fairly quiet.
not see prices in the near term surpassing $525 for 5%.

OFFSHORE QUOTES
Thailand Vietnam India Pakistan Uru. Arg. Brazil
100%B $490.00 5% $465.00 Export ban, MEP $900
5% $470.00 5% N/A 5% $480.00 $515.00 $515.00
10% $465.00 10% $460.00 10% N/A 10% no quote $505.00 $505.00
15% $460.00 15% $450.00 15% N/A 15% no quote no quote no quote
25% $445.00 25% $430.00 25% N/A 25% $430.00
Parb. 5% N/A Parb 5% $530.00 $480.00
Brokens $405.00 Brokens $410.00 Var. 1121 $1350 Parb 15%* $515.00
Parb. 100B sorted $495.00 MEP-5% $490.00 Basmati Brokens $390.00 Paddy
Thai Hom Mali $900.00 MEP-25% $470.00 Traditional $1800 Basmati $300.00
Frag. Brokens $435.00 Pusa $1300 S. Kernal $1300.00
All prices basis U.S. dollars per metric ton, F.O.B. vessel, corresponding home port *Bangladesh Specs.

Copyright © 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved www.creedrice.com

April 13, 2011 - Page 2 of 4


CBOT Rough Rice Futures (04/11/11 Volume: 1,234 Open Interest: 24,730)
Contract Tuesday’s Close Net Change From Prices
Month Price Monday Last Report One Year Ago 04/13/10
‘11 May $13.370 DOWN 0.350 DOWN 0.740 ‘10 May $13.030
‘11 Jul $13.690 DOWN 0.345 DOWN 0.735 ‘10 Jul $13.300
‘11 Sep $14.470 DOWN 0.305 DOWN 0.695 ‘10 Sep $12.725
‘11 Nov $14.780 DOWN 0.290 DOWN 0.670 ‘10 Nov $12.845
‘12 Jan $15.095 DOWN 0.275 DOWN 0.615 ‘11 Jan $13.115
‘12 Mar $15.420 DOWN 0.255 DOWN 0.550 ‘11 Mar $13.410

U.S. Paddy Market Report not be enough water for second crop.
California - 2010 Calrose M/G last traded at $13.50 per cwt over loan. 2011
Texas - The market continues to be quiet with no new trading reported. new crop last traded at $13.50 per cwt over loan.
Buyers’ price ideas are still $6.00 per cwt over loan. New crop planting
continues with about 80% completed. Reflective Prices (all basis per cwt FOB country, 2010 Crop)
Louisiana - The market is very quiet with long grain bids $11.48 - $11.73
Texas Louisianna Mid-South California
per cwt FOB farm. Planting of new crop continues with southwest La. about
80% completed. Long grain 11.50-12.50 11.50 - 11.75 $9.75b/11.11a *
Mid South - Bids for long grain are $10.50 per cwt loaded barge up-river Med Grain * 14.50 new crop $17.25 $20.55
for May shipment while sellers’ price ideas are $12.00 per cwt loaded barge. L/G is #2 55/70, M/G is #2 58/69 (California #1)
Planting continues to be interrupted by rain, something that Texas dearly * - These areas do not have sufficient supplies of this type to quote.
needs as there are concerns that if the drought in Texas continues there may

U.S. Report
U.S. GULF, FUTURES, & MERCOSUR
The market in the South remains very quiet, amid very limited mt basis bulk. As regards paddy, long grain barges are being bid/
demand for milled rice. In rather sharp contrast, the paddy exports asked at levels that reflect $255/$285 per mt bulk FOB NOLA. No
have been fairly steady. Of particular note is a sale of 50,000 mt activity on medium grain reported in quite some time and that
to Panama, with an upcoming tender for 30,000 with Costa Rica. was for new crop at $15.50 per cwt. delivered mill.
Paddy shipments continue on a regular weekly basis to Mexico The undertone of the market is steady, as prices seem to have
and other destinations in Central America. bottomed-out, for now. The big question is where is the business
Now, let me attempt to analyze this a bit closer and point out going to come from for the mills between now and new crop,
some very interesting ironies early on in the season that reflect and what will be the ultimate fate of what looks to be a carryover
contradictory export numbers. of some 40,000,000 cwt. of low yielding, low quality rice. As
1- Overall, paddy exports trail last year’s pace by over aforementioned in previous reports, new crop contracts call for
150,000 mt. no blending of 2010 and 2011 crops...it will be interesting to see
2- However, this does not include the aforementioned how buyers try to police that!
80,000 mt of Costa Rica and Panama business this Amid profit taking by speculators and a soft cash market, the
month that have not yet shown up in the export sales futures ended the week down $0.60 - $0.75 cents per cwt.
reports.
3- Much to most people’s surprise, milled rice exports CALIFORNIA, AUSTRALIA & THE “MED”
actually lead last year by about 140,000 mt...complete No substantive change in the market here as
opposite of what one might think giving the atmosphere the mills continue to ship against (primarily) old
today. business for Japan and Libya. So far, we have had
4- However, one has to realize this gain was all at the no disruptions in execution, given the conditions on
beginning of the crop year when our prices were much the ground at destination.
cheaper, and we were able to increase market share Price are steady to slightly softer with #1-4% quoted at $37-
in places like Ghana, sell brokens to Senegal due to 38 per cwt bulk FOB mill, or $875 per mt CY Oakland.
low yielding paddy, and parboil to Nigeria and Benin As regards the cash paddy market, things are pretty slow,
account competitive pricing with Thai. Most likely, all of with light trading reported around $13.50 per cwt over loan.
that is in our rear view mirror; plus it appears as though No fresh new crop trades reported, however last trade for 2011
we have lost Iraq for the season, and are slowly but surely crop was coincidentally at $13.50 as well.
losing market share in Canada and the Caribbean. The Australia harvest is in full swing, as
In the meantime, we would place nominal values on #2-4% the conditions look good so far and we are still
at $515-520 per mt bagged FOB vessel, or around $490-500 per anticipating a crop of around 800,000 mt basis paddy.
Copyright © 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved www.creedrice.com

April 13, 2011 - Page 3 of 4


Upcoming Tenders: USDA Export Sales Highlights
End April Costa Rica tender to buy 30,000mt of of long grain (March 25 - 31, 2011)
paddy.
Sales
Tenders Results: Net sales of 74,400 MT were up noticeably from the previous week
April 3 Panama tender for 50,000mt long grain paddy, bought at ap- and up 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were
proximately $305 per mt basis loaded truck in Panama. reported for:
April 5 KCCO MR-22-041 tender - 13,000mt of #2/4% was not Mexico (26,100 MT)
bought. KCCO did buy: Haiti (14,500 MT)
#5/20% L/G at $439.29 - $471.60 per mt BHOU-LCHI. Libya (12,000 MT)
#3/15% L/G at 448.87 pet mt FAS Lake Charles. unknown destinations (6,000 MT)
#2/7% Parboiled at $622.30-$659.17 BLC-FAS Lake Charles. Jordan (5,000 MT)
#5/20% Parboiled $572.60 LCHI. Decreases were reported for:
Senegal (2,200 MT)
April 11 IRAQ tender to buy 30,000mt of of long grain milled rice.
IGB likely to confirm 60,000mt Thai long grain milled rice. Exports
Exports of 52,500 MT were down 26 percent from the previous
USDA Supply Demand Report Highlights week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary
1) No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2010/11 rice supply and use balance sheets. On destinations were :
the use side, all rice domestic use and residual is estimated at 127.0 million cwt, still a record, but down
2.0 million from last month, but 4.4 million above 2009/10. All of the reduction is in long-grain rice now es-
timated at a near-record 99.0 million cwt. Combined medium- and short-grain domestic use is unchanged Mexico (24,800 MT)
at 28.0 million cwt. The changes in the 2010/11 domestic use and residual estimates are based largely on
the March 1 Rice Stocks report released by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) on March
Japan (14,200 MT)
31. NASS reported all rice stocks on a rough-equivalent basis at nearly 130.0 million cwt, up 17 percent Canada (3,600 MT)
from a year earlier, and above trade expectations.
2) The all rice 2010/11 export projection is unchanged at 116.0 million cwt; however, the rough-rice export Saudi Arabia (2,500 MT)
projection is lowered 3.0 million to 39.0 million because of slower-than-expected sales and shipments to Israel (800 MT)
markets primarily in Central America. Conversely, the combined milled and brown rice export projection is
raised 3.0 million cwt to 77.0 million (on rough-rice basis) due mostly to recent, large food-aid announce- Source: USDA
ments. The 2010/11 long-grain export projection is raised 1.0 million cwt to 79.0 million, while the com-
bined medium- and short-grain export projection is lowered the same amount to 37.0 million. The increase
in the long-grain export projection is due mostly to an increase in the non-commercial portion of exports
(virtually all long-grain rice) and the reduction in the combined medium- and short-grain export forecast is
due to lower-than-expected exports to Taiwan.
3) All rice ending stocks are projected at 54.8 million cwt, 2.0 million above last month, 18.1 million above Upcoming Events:
the previous year, and the largest stocks since 1985/86.
4) World rice production is reduced 0.8 million tons to 450.7 million based mostly on decreases for Indone- June 7-9, 2011 TRT Americas Conference 2011
sia, Iran, Laos, North Korea, and Sri Lanka, which is partially offset by increases for Brazil and Colombia.
5) Global imports for 2010/11 are lowered 0.8 million tons to 29.2 million due mostly to reductions for
Hotel Riu Plaza Panama, Panama City, Panama
Malaysia, Madagascar, the Philippines, and Thailand, which is partially offset by increases for some Sub- For more info go to: http://trtamericas.com/
Saharan Africa markets. Additionally, global exports are lowered from last month owing to expected de-
clines in shipments from mostly South American markets including Argentina, Peru, and Uruguay. Global
consumption is increased slightly based mostly on increases to a number of Sub-Saharan Africa markets.
6) Global ending stocks are projected at 97.1 million tons, down 1.7 million from last month, but an in-
June 26-30, 2011 USA Rice Millers’ Association Convention
crease of 3.3 million from 2009/10, and the largest stocks since 2002/03. The largest reductions in ending
stocks occurred in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand, which are partially offset by an increase for
Brazil.

USDA Crop Progress


Rice Planted - Selected States -- Week Ending Rice Emerged - Selected States -- Week Ending
April 10, April 3, April 10, 2006- 2010 April 10, April 3, April 3, 2006- 2010
State State
2010 2011 2011 Avg. 2010 2011 2011 Avg.
Arkansas 17 7 21 15 Arkansas 1 (NA) 1 2
California - - - - California - (NA) - -
Louisiana 64 57 67 57 Louisiana 9 (NA) 38 24
Mississippi 13 6 10 11 Mississippi 3 (NA) 4 2
Missouri 6 - 4 7 Missouri - (NA) - -
Texas 50 67 79 63 Texas 19 (NA) 57 38
6 States 22 16 26 21 6 States 3 (NA) 9 7

Rice Co-Products - Spot market prices basis $ per short ton bulk, FOB mill (virtually no spot supply available for sale in South, except hulls)
Texas Louisiana Arkansas California
Bran: $110-$115 $110 Not Available ($110) $140-$150
Mill Feed: $45 $30 Not Available ($40)
Ground Hulls: $5 $5 $15
Unground Hulls: $5 $5 $12 $8

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Ph 1.713.782.3260  Fax 1.713.782.4671  www.creedrice.com  email: ricecreed@aol.com & creedinc@swbell.net
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April 13, 2011 - Page 4 of 4