Report On The Mass Transit System

ARE WE THERE YET?
- A RESEARCH ON
PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION OF KARACHI
MASTERS OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
BUSINESS RESEARCH METHODS
RESEARCH PROJECT REPORT
Prepared by
Noman Ahmed (0936130)

M. Zafir Zia (0936122)
Meraj Mazhar (0936118)
Summer Semester 2010
Project Manager
Mr. Saami Haamid
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A project in partial fulfillment of the award of
Masters of Business Administration
SZABIST - Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Institute of

Information Technology, Karachi.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We are thankful to almighty Allah, who gave us strength and courage to accomplish this
research project report. We would like to express our gratitude to Mr. SAAMI
HAAMID, the project advisor, for encouraging and guiding us during the course of this
project.
We are also thankful to those who provided us with relevant information that was
required for successful completion of this project. It has been an enriching experience
for us to conduct a research and gathering concerned data to create detailed report on the
Public Transportation System of Karachi.
We wish to express our sincere appreciation to those who have contributed directly or
indirectly to this research report.
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ABSTRACT
Karachi is the economic and financial hub of Pakistan generating approximately 53.38%
of the total national revenues. Approximately 75% of the population falls in category of
poor or low income groups while the rest constitute middle or high income groups.
Urban transportation system of Karachi has no mass transit system and people rely
mainly on bus services. The people on average take 13.5 million mechanized trips per
day, of which 52% is made by public transport.
Urban Bus Scheme and Karachi Circular Railway are major project deemed to relieve the
congestions on the roads of the city. Only Urban Bus Scheme, however, has yet shown
considerable activity on part of public transport planning and implementation. This
system lacks inter-modal integration and sustainability due to which this system has
failed to cater to the growing commutation demands of masses.
This research study aims to investigate the demand and supply gap of the sector in light
of institutional capacity to develop and maintain. Also, this study attempts to compare
public transportation system of Karachi with comparable metropolis like Mumbai, Delhi
and Beijing. In last, the study attempts to explore socio-economic reasons behind delay of
Karachi Circular Railway.
The study has adopted descriptive and thematic analysis approach to achieve the
objectives. All the analysis, hereon, are done on secondary data gathered for the purpose.
This study concludes that an integrated, multi-modal and sustainable public

transportation system can only be achieved by giving a holistic approach to planning,
execution and capacity building of the sector.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1- LITERATURE REVIEW ..................................................................................8
1.1 Population Overview...............................................................................8
1.2 Transportation – Facts And Figures ........................................................9
1.3 Development Projects in the Transportation System of Karachi ..........12
1.4 Looming Issues and Academicians Viewpoints .....................................13
1.5 Theoretical Support for Improvement and Benchmarking.....................16
1.6 Like Countries Transportation Systems (Urban Transport Trends and
Policies in China and India: Impacts of Rapid Economic Growth, 2007)......19
2 INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................21
3 SECTOR ISSUES...........................................................................................22
4 IMPORTANCE OF THE RESEARCH ................................................................23
5 OBJECTIVES.................................................................................................24
6 OBJECTIVE NO. 1.........................................................................................25
6.1 Research Methodology..........................................................................25
6.2 Limitation..............................................................................................25
6.3 Null Hypothesis.....................................................................................25
6.4 Alternative Hypothesis ........................................................................25
6.5 Descriptive Analysis .............................................................................25
6.6 Calculations for Estimated Demand......................................................29
6.7 Findings.................................................................................................30
7 OBJECTIVE NO. 2 ........................................................................................31
7.1 Research Methodology..........................................................................31
7.2 Limitation .............................................................................................31
7.3 Null Hypothesis.....................................................................................31
7.4 Alternative Hypothesis..........................................................................31
7.5 Thematic Analysis.................................................................................31
7.6 Findings ................................................................................................36
8 OBJECTIVE NO. 3 ........................................................................................38
8.1 Methodology ........................................................................................38
8.2 Null Hypothesis.....................................................................................38
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8.3 Alternative Hypothesis..........................................................................38
8.4 Comparative Analysis............................................................................38
9 OBJECTIVE NO. 4 ........................................................................................42
9.1 Research Methodology .........................................................................42
9.2 Null Hypothesis ....................................................................................42
9.3 Alternate Hypothesis ............................................................................42
9.4 Comparative/Gap Analysis ...................................................................42
9.5 Findings ................................................................................................46
10 OBJECTIVE NO. 5 ......................................................................................48
10.1 Research Methodology .......................................................................48
10.2 Limitations .........................................................................................48
10.3 Null Hypothesis ..................................................................................48
10.4 Alternate Hypothesis ..........................................................................48
10.5 Thematic Analysis ..............................................................................48
10.6 Findings ..............................................................................................50
11 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................53
12 REFERENCES ............................................................................................55
13 BIBLIOGRAPHY ..........................................................................................59
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LIST OF TABLES
1.2.1Table – Growth Pattern of Vehicles (Actual)...........................................10
1.1.1Table – Total Person Trips In Different Towns Of Karachi ......................11
6.5.1Table - Vehicles growth rates from 2002 to 2013 (extrapolated)...........26
6.5.2Table - Actual and Estimated Number of Vehicles on Roads..................28
7.5.1Table - Top 10 Most Travelled Spots in Karachi......................................32
7.5.2Table - Average Travel Time, Delay and Speed......................................34
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 6-1 - Vehicles Growth..........................................................................27
Figure 6-2 - Growth Trends of Vehicles and Cars versus Population..............27
Figure 6-3 – Breakup of Public Transport Modes............................................29
Figure 6-4 – Comparison of Actual vs. Estimated number of Coaches, Mini-

buses and Buses ...........................................................................................29
Figure 9-1 - Four Pillar Model for Sustainable Public Transportation System..44
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1- LITERATURE REVIEW
1.1 Population Overview
During the last 50 years, Pakistan’s population has increased from 33 million to 152.53
million in FY 2005, thus, making Pakistan the s1- LITERATURE REVIEWeventh most
populous country in the world (Karachi Mega Cities Preparation Project, 2005).
According to the 1998 Census Report, Karachi had a population of 9.2 million in 1998
compared with 5.2 million in 1981, a growth rate of 4.5% per annum. In 1998 the
National population was 130.5 million, and that of the Sindh province 30.4 million.
Growth rates since 1981 were 2.61% and 2.80% respectively, indicating rapid
urbanization in Karachi, which was also much higher than the national average growth
for urban areas of 3.45% and also for that of Sindh at 3.52%. On this basis population in
2015 for Karachi would reach 20.7 million and 26.4 million in 2020. (Karachi Mega
Cities Preparation Project, page 4, 2005)
Karachi, the capital of Sindh is the commercial hub and the gateway of Pakistan. It
generates approximately 53.38% of the total collections of the Federal Board of Revenue
(FBR Report, 06-07). The city handles 95% of Pakistan’s foreign trade; contributes 30%
to Pakistan’s manufacturing sector; and almost 90% of the head offices of the banks,
financial institutions and multinational companies operate in Karachi. The country’s
largest stock exchange is Karachi-based, making it the financial and commercial center of
the country. It also comprises about 40% of the total banking and insurance sector of the
country. Karachi contributes 20% of GDP, adds 45% of the national value added, retains
40% of the total national employment in large scale manufacturing, holds 50% of bank
deposits and contributes 25% of national revenues and 40% of provincial revenues.
(Karachi Mega Cities Preparation Project, page 3, 2005)
The CDG (City District Government) of Karachi is divided into 18 zones or towns. These
towns are governed by the town municipal administration. Each town administration is
responsible for infrastructure and spatial planning, development facilitation, and
municipal services (water, sanitation, solid waste, repairing roads, parks, street lights, and
traffic engineering) in a town, except those functions which are retained within the CDG.
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Intra-city transport now falls under the Local Government. (Karachi Mass Transit Cell,
City District Government, 2006).
Apart from in-migrants from Pakistan’s provinces, a large number of migrants from
Afghanistan, Bangladesh and other South Asian countries have settled in the city. With
an average monthly household income of Rs.15000, there is considerable variation in
income distribution. Roughly 75 percent of the households fall in the category of poor
and low income groups, and 25 percent constitute the middle and high income groups
(Karachi Strategic Plan 2020, 2007).
It is no longer possible to overlook the urban decay in Pakistan. Streets are littered with
waste, drains are overflowing with sewage, low-lying communities are inundated after
rainfall, traffic congestion is ubiquitous, and the violent crime in urban centers is on the
rise. The State either has divested from, or is no longer able to offer, reliable mass transit,
good quality and affordable primary education, and healthcare. This has given the
opportunity to the private sector to take up some of these roles (Vision 2030, 2006)
1.2 Transportation – Facts And Figures

The population of Karachi City District relies almost entirely on the road network for
urban transportation. There is currently no mass transit system per se, although many
commute using the network of bus routes. There are nearly 13.5 million mechanized trips
made each day within the CDGK area, of which 52 percent are made by public and 48
percent by private transport. There are 1.3 million registered vehicles in Karachi (almost
50 percent of the national total) and private vehicles – mainly motorcycles and cars –
now constitute 83 percent of total registered vehicles while buses and min-buses
constitute only 1.5 percent (Karachi Mega Cities Preparation Project, page 14, 2005).
In 2002 the total registered vehicles and cars were growing at twice the growth rate of the
population while the vehicle fleet is dominated by cars and motorcycles, which account
for 92% of the vehicles as compared to 6% for para-transit vehicles and 2% for public
transport vehicles. The buses/minibuses are the most important mode of public transport
in Karachi and better transport management strategies, service, accessibility, and
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affordability can help reduce the use of private vehicles (Urban Transport and Sustainable
Transport Strategies, 2007).
The intra-city road network has a radial pattern, consisting of a series of arterials, a few
circumferential roads with inconsistent links and a disproportionately large number of
local and collector roads. In terms of connectivity, the network is deficient in secondary
roads that provide feeder service to major thoroughfares. The weakness has basically
arisen from the piece-meal development focused on residential schemes in the past
(Karachi Strategic Plan 2020, 2007).
The availability of public transport has not grown at the same rate as the population in
Pakistani cities (Sohail et al. 2006). With growth rates for private vehicles at over 9
percent, there are now over 280 new vehicles added to the streets of Karachi each day
(Karachi Mega Cities Preparation Project, page 14, 2005).
For Total length of the road network spanning 8000 Km, total No. of Vehicles in
Karachi up to 2007
(Source: Wajid Ali Khan Deputy Inspector General Traffic Police Karachi 16th April 2008, A presentation
at Urban Resource Centre, Karachi & Per Person Trip Study of Karachi by JICA – December 2005)
1.2.1 Table – Growth Pattern of Vehicles (Actual)

S.No. Years Total No. of Registered Annual Monthly Daily
Vehicles in Karachi Increase Increase Increase
1 2002 1,113,917 30,640 2,553 84
2 2003 1,177,315 63,398 5,283 174
3 2004 1,280,349 102,934 8,578 282
4 2005 1,431,994 151,745 12,645 415
5 2006 1,610,757 1,78,763 14.897 489
6 2007 1,809,500 198,743 16,562 545
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(Urban Transport and Sustainable Transport Strategies, 2007).
1.1.1 Table – Total Person Trips In Different Towns Of Karachi

S.No Place Town Code % Total Person
Description Contribution Trips
to Total
1 Liaquatabad Liaquatabad Town 5.33 1,290,678
No-10
2 Banaras Chowk SITE Town 4.93 1,194,016
3 Nagan New Karachi Town 3.71 899,511
Chowrangi
4 Quaidabad Bin Qasim Town 3.39 822,321
5 Tower Saddar Town 3.01 729,831
6 Nipa Gulshan-e-Iqbal 2.95 713,837
Chowrangi Town
7 Korangi 1 ½ Korangi Town 2.85 690,541
8 Baloch Colony Jamshed Town 2.83 636,716
9 Garden Saddar Town 2.53 611,959
10 Numaish Saddar Town 2.50 605,701
This rapid rise in personal vehicle ownership and the lack of economic instruments, such
as charged parking and road pricing, has led to enormous congestion especially in the
central part of the city
While there has been, and continues to, be a significant programme of road building,
there has been no complementary investment in public transport systems. There had been
plans for the introduction of rail-based mass transit systems. A major light rail mass
transit system for Karachi has been planned since 1973, and earlier there was a proposal
to develop and expand the Karachi Circular Railway (KCR). However, despite attempts
to attract private sector investment for these schemes they have yet to be realized
(Karachi Mega Cities Preparation Project, page 14, 2005).
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1.3 Development Projects in the Transportation System of Karachi
Urban Bus Scheme
This scheme proposed a strategy to revamp the road- based public transport system in the
city by replacing the mini buses with large buses using environmentally friendly fuels
like compressed natural gas (CNG) to provide efficient, comfortable, reliable, safe, and
environmentally friendly transport to the general public. Presently, more than 300 large
capacity buses have been deployed on the roads and 8000 more CNG buses will soon be
included in the fleet with the government allocating Rupees 5 billion (US$ 83.3 million)
for the city transport. This allocation is being made to mitigate the issues of severe
overcrowding, congestion, deteriorating service, and environmental pollution associated
with the existing 81% of individually owned, low capacity, environmentally damaging
minibuses/coaches. (Business Recorder, 2005)
Lyari Expressway and Northern bypass
The construction of the 32.1 km long 4 lane Lyari expressway will improve inner city
vehicular movement, while the 57 km long 6 lane Northern bypass planned to divert
heavy upcountry traffic outside the city will hopefully ease traffic pressure in the city and
will give a much cleaner and pleasant environment to the people. Moreover, for fiscal
year 2005-2006, the city government has approved Rupees 6.00 billion (US$ 100 million)
for construction of roads, bridges, flyovers, under passes, bus terminals, and other
development works and US$ 225 million for construction of a 24-km-long elevated
expressway. However, the current modernization of the transport infrastructure
(construction of the elevated expressway, underpasses, flyovers, etc.) which seeks to
solve Karachi’s traffic congestion will provide no more than temporary relief. The
experience of other mega cities suggests that a huge investment on construction of high
capacity roads and the provision of a large number of flyovers and underpasses will not
mitigate traffic congestion or enhance vehicle speed. For example, the congestion in
Beijing can be quantified from the declining vehicle speeds from 45 km/h in 1994 to 10
km/h in 2005 especially between the second and third ring roads, which is now extending
beyond fourth ring road and along major radial and arterial roads (Daily Dawn, 2006)
Rail-based Mass Transit System
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A rail-based mass transit master plan has identified three corridors with the revival of the
KCR as an integral part of the system. The whole project will be built on the Build
Operate Transfer (BOT) basis. Corridor 1 that runs northeast and south-west will be
constructed in two stages. Stage one is a 15.2-km route which will have some elevated
and some underground portions, with Stage two extending the system to another 8 km.
Corridor 2 will have a 13.4-km line along the north and south axis of the city (The World
Bank, 2006)
1.4 Looming Issues and Academicians Viewpoints

Keeping in view the urban structure and associated transport infrastructure, Karachi is
likely to suffer the quality of transportation available, which in turn affects people’s
opportunities and quality of life. Transport facilities, activities and services impose many
indirect and external costs, such as congestion delay and accident risk imposed on other
road users, infrastructure costs not funded through user fees, pollution, and undesirable
land use impacts. A significant amount of valuable land is devoted to transport facilities.
This land is generally exempt from rent and taxes, representing an additional but hidden
subsidy of transport activity (Evaluating Transportation Equity, 2007).
The necessity of addressing serious environmental challenges makes the already complex
business of transportation planning extremely difficult. Designing corridors, streets and
thoroughfares to provide safe movement and access to people and goods, by cost-
effective means, involves application of management and technology to resolve many
social, economic and political force (Homer Dixon, 2001)
The government authorities, in the light of World Bank guidelines, have tried to improve
bus systems rather than take the initiative in rail-based public transport due to the
flexibility and lower cost of bus transport. However, high cost and inflexibility associated
with a rail-based mode of travel gives it a high profile as a symbol of political
commitment and financial security for public transport (Hass-Klau et al, 2003)
It has been declared that railways should be a backbone of public transport in Pakistan.
But this policy has not been realized so far due to the unavailability of finances for
railway development. If the demand for public transport in Pakistan is estimated, only
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rail-based public transport would have the potential to carry large numbers of passengers
with higher speeds and smoother rides. The most significant potential of rail over buses is
its influence on urban land by enhancing development activity around rail lines and
stations. All Pakistani cities have an infrastructure of railways inherited from British rule;
therefore, rail-based public transport can play a catalytic role in the urban development
and regeneration of Pakistani cities (Imran, 2009)
The bus transport is privately owned and is operated on designated routes. The bus
service is poor, inefficient and uncomfortable for the passengers; at peak hours it is
grossly inadequate with intolerable overcrowding and discomfort. There is disparity
between the number of seats available and the passengers, as indicated by the current
passenger seat ratio of 1:34. The service is used by most of the low-income and poor
people (Karachi Strategic Plan 2020, 2007). In the presence of a low level of public
transport services, middle- and higher-income people living in larger cities prefer private
vehicles, either motorcycle or car, for travel (Imran, 2009).
Much-needed CNG-powered buses will start playing on 40 designated routes in the city
any time during the next financial year as the ground work for the launching of the
scheme has been completed in all respects, according to well-placed city government
officials. The government is now looking to the banking sector to offer financial
packages to the public transport operators interested in bringing the CNG buses to the
city, said sources privy to the Karachi Mass Transit Cell. (Dawn, May 30, 2010)
JICA dispatched a study team on Future Traffic Demand Forecast for Karachi City. This
study includes the review of person trip data, assignment of exiting traffic on Karachi
road network and its verification through person trip data. It also focuses on actual traffic
count on selected locations and assignment of future traffic on the road network for the
target year 2020. The study will provide useful knowledge and information for transport
planning like Karachi Circular Railway (KCR), mass transit system and Flyovers etc. The
purpose of the study is to build models for the future transport demand on the master plan
of Karachi city; To give suggestions on the future transport situation in terms of the
demand for the year 2020; and to develop the capacity of the related organization on
future traffic demand forecast methodology by using System for Traffic Demand
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Analysis (STRADA). STRADA is a system developed by JICA for traffic demand
analysis. In line with the determination to assist Pakistan in development projects to
vitalize Karachi city, government of Japan in collaboration with the Pakistani counterpart
is trying to solve major issues facing Karachi like water supply and sewerage system;
solid waste management and mass transit system. JICA is the official Agency of the
government of Japan and undertakes the transfer of Japanese knowledge and experience
from the people of Japan to the people of Pakistan. JICA Pakistan office is actively
cooperating with the government of Pakistan since 1983 in Health, Education, Sanitation,
Agriculture, Irrigation, Environment, and Governance. (Japan International Corporation
Agency, 2008)
Public transport faces severe problems in almost all countries of the developing world,
although the situation varies from one country to another and even from one city to
another (Vasconcellos, 200). Organizations responsible for transport planning and
implementation of projects need to develop public transport policies that take into
consideration the high-density mixed land use pattern of its cities (Imran, 2009). It seems
that these criteria have been overlooked in the provision and development of public
transport. Otherwise, the land use pattern in Pakistani cities requires rail-based public
transport due to its potential to transport large numbers of people quickly, reliably,
comfortably, and safely in high-density areas. The government’s development efforts to
date have been hampered by the lack of a clear policy/strategy for integrated
development of the sector and the absence of a single transport ministry or authority
responsible for coordination between competing modes.(Karachi Mass Transit Cell
Report, 2006)
Adoption of the principles of sustainable transportation has become more important in

Karachi, where the inefficient public transportation system and rising incomes have
stimulated the demand for personal mobility with increased automobile ownership and
use. Growing motorization combined with inadequate traffic management strategies, an
aging and ill maintained vehicle stock, and inadequate land use and transportation
planning, has all led to a significant level of traffic congestion resulting in longer travel
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times, additional fuel, high pollution levels, and a deteriorating urban environment that
has a direct bearing on sustainable development.(Qureshi, 2007)
The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council has approved a revival of a
circular rail to run around Karachi. The Rs128.5 billion project will link points in Karachi
through what is envisaged as a modern rail system with high standards, and aims to carry
about 700,000 commuters daily in t he country's largest city The challenges will lie in
how well the project can be implemented (Daily The News, 2009).
Pakistan Transport Plan Study (PTPS, 2008) said
"Assuming that the Pakistani economy grows following the medium growth scenario that
is at 7 percent per annum until 2010 and 5-6 percent in 2011 to 2025, the cumulative
GDP will reach 4,255 billion dollar in the coming 20 years. However, an appropriate
amount of investment in the transportation sector will largely depend on the infrastructure
stock and the demand/supply gap in Pakistan, about 0.9 percent of GDP has been
invested in the transportation sector and the master plan aims at 1.5 percent of GDP
during 2006 to 2010”
In 1992, the Karachi Mass Transit Project (KTMP) proposal, prepared by World Bank
consultants, was finalized. The project was to consist of six elevated light rail transit
ways to be built on a Built– Operate–Transfer basis through an international tender. The
URC invited the director of the Karachi Development Authority’s Mass Transit Cell and
its technical expert to make presentations to NGOs, community organizations, concerned
citizens, academics and the media. The URC’s own reservations were finally expressed in
a newspaper article in January 1994 (URC Introduction Case Study by Arif Hasan)
1.5 Theoretical Support for Improvement and Benchmarking

Every transit project is cost effective or that transit is always the best solution to every
transport problems. However, transit improvements tend to provide significantly more
value to society than conventional models indicate. There are four general categories of
transit improvements to consider (Evaluating Public Transit Benefits and Costs, Best
Practices Guidebook, February 2010):
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• Increased service (more transit vehicle-miles)
• Improved service (more comfortable, convenient, reliable, etc.).
• Incentives to use transit (lower fares, commuter financial incentives, marketing,
etc.).
• Transit oriented development (land use patterns designed to support transit,
including more compact, walkable, mixed development around transit stations
and corridors)
Adequate finance, infrastructure, and urban planning are important for public transport
planning, but the critical requirement is effective governance. Effective governance
included appropriate organizations with the necessary powers, skills, finance, and
responsibilities for public transport planning (Kennedy et al, 2005). These characteristics
of governance were not present in public transport organizations in Pakistan. These
organizations have a long history of deficiency in professional, administrative, and
financial capacity to manage public transport service planning (Imran 2006; Haider and
Badami 2007). The presence of mixed land use, high population and employment
density, and growing needs of motorized transport use in Pakistani cities shows a
potential to establish a multimodal transport system at metropolitan level (Imran, 2009).
The absence of integrated transport and land use planning means that development
projects are implemented by various departments without taking into account urban
ecological systems, resources, and social and economic factors. Different city structures
(land use patterns) need different transportation systems. The planning should aim at
maximizing the urban transport system efficiency for the environmental and city resource
constraints. A dynamic relationship between the city structure and the urban
transportation systems will help maximize social benefits and sustainable development
(Qureshi, 2007). A transport proposal should not be evaluated only on transport criteria,
but also on land use, social, and environmental grounds (Mitchell and Rapkin, 1954).
Pratt (1999); Rood (1999); Phillips et al (2001); Kittleson & Associates (2003a); Tumlin,
et al (2005); AARP (2005); provide guidance on evaluating transit service quality from
various perspectives, including the following factors:
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• Availability (when and where transit service is available), and coverage (the
portion of a geographic area, or the portion of common destinations in a
community, located within reasonable distance of transit service.
• Frequency (how many trips are made each hour or day).
• Travel speed (absolute and relative to automobile travel).
• Reliability (how frequently service follows published schedules).
• Integration (ease of transferring within the transit system and with other travel
modes).
• Price structure and payment options.
• User comfort and security, including riding on, walking to, and waiting for transit.
• Accessibility (ease of reaching transit stations and stops, particularly by walking).
• Universal design (ability to accommodate diverse users including people with
disabilities, baggage, inability to understand local languages, etc.).
• Affordability (user costs relative to their income and other travel options).
• Information (ease of obtaining information about transit services).
• Aesthetics (appearance of transit vehicles, stations, waiting areas and documents).
• Amenity (extra features and services that enhance user comfort and enjoyment).
Levinger and McGehee (2008) recommend that planners optimize the following factors
to improve transit services and attract new riders:
• Ease. Is the system or product easy to use? What difficulties do new users face?
Transit example: Are your timetables legible and easily decipherable, even by
inexperienced users? Are transfers convenient?
• Effectiveness. How well does the system help users complete a task? Does the
product serve its purpose well? Transit example: Do routes operate on time and
on predictable schedules? Can passengers make their desired trips in a reasonable
time?
• Comfort. Do users feel safe, secure, and relaxed when using a product? Does use
ever cause discomfort? Transit example: Do stops, stations and vehicles and
vehicles always feel safe and secure? Do seats accommodate passengers of
different sizes and abilities?
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• Aesthetics. Simply, does the product appeal to users? Is it visually and tactilely
appealing? How does using the system affect all five senses? Transit examples:
Are vehicles clean, outside and inside? Do the vehicles’ temperature, fabrics, and
hand-holds feel good? Are there any unpleasant smells, glaring lights, or blaring
audio systems?
1.6 Like Countries Transportation Systems (Urban Transport Trends

and Policies in China and India: Impacts of Rapid Economic
Growth, 2007).
To set benchmarks for future development, cities with similar urban characteristics and
demographics can be taken into account. For instance, rapid growth of both Chinese and
Indian cities has dramatically increased demand for land and travel in urban areas, thus
putting enormous pressure on transport and other kinds of public infrastructure. Since
1990, the total number of motor vehicles has roughly tripled in India and has increased
tenfold in China). There is less variation among Chinese cities. Even in China’s two
largest cities, Beijing and Shanghai, non-motorized transport accounts for 40–55% of
trips. The non-motorized share ranges from about 70% to 80% for most of the smaller
Chinese cities.
A few cities provide statistics on trends in travel over time, and most such information
suggests declines in walking and cycling and rapid increases in the use of private cars and
motorcycles. In Shanghai, for example, the combined modal share of walking and cycling
fell from 72% in 1986 to 54% in 2004 (Shanghai City Comprehensive Transportation
Planning Institute (SCCTPI), 2005). The falling non-motorized share of trips is due to
increasing trip distances in expanding cities as well as increased ownership and use of
private cars and motorcycles with rising incomes. Moreover, cycling and walking
facilities in Chinese cities have been worsening: many pavements and cycle lanes are
being eliminated or narrowed to accommodate more car lanes. Some streets and districts
are now off-limits to cyclists.
Public transport use has risen in almost all Chinese cities due to rising populations and
the longer trips caused by the expansion of urban areas. For all Chinese cities in
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aggregate, total public transport trips rose by 67% from 1996 to 2004 (from 25.6 billion
to 42.6 billion) (National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2005).
Although Chinese and Indian cities suffer from a long list of transport problems, the
focus here is on only four of the most important problems: traffic deaths and injuries,
environmental pollution, congestion, and lack of adequate mobility. To varying degrees,
all four problems have become more serious in recent years due to rapid population
growth, the spreading out of cities into lower-density suburbs, and skyrocketing
motorization. In both China and India, traffic congestion is probably the most visible,
most pervasive, and most immediate transport problem plaguing their cities on a daily
basis. It affects all modes of transport and all socio-economic groups. Most estimates as
well as anecdotal impressions suggest rapidly worsening congestion. The periods of peak
congestion in Delhi now last 5 hours, from 8.30 to 10.30 and from 16.30 to 19.30. During
peak hours, over 70% of roads in central Beijing are considered oversaturated with
traffic. During peak hours, more than half of the roads and intersections in Shanghai's
central area are considered oversaturated, and 20% of Beijing’s inner roads are
completely gridlocked.
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2 INTRODUCTION
Public transportation system of Karachi is suffering from various major and minor
problems which include disintegration of modal split, uncomfortable mode of
commutation and lack of capacity in institutions responsible for overall planning,
development and maintenance of this system. This study is aimed at identifying
characteristic of common commuter which then leads to identification of commutation
needs of a common commuter. This study also attempts to identify direct and indirect
stakeholders affecting the system in a way or the other. The study also analyses the
situation of urban bus scheme, commonly known as Benazir Bhutto Shaheed CNG Buses
and compare it with current transport needs of the city. This study also attempts to unveil
the underlying socio-economic factor of Karachi Circular Railway delay. The study takes
into account a theoretical model for institutionalization of this sector. Do we need
institutional changes? To what extent?
Why planning part of the sector is so weak? Why could it not be implemented
effectively?
What lessons can we learn from other big metropolitan cities?
How can people of Karachi play their role to contribute to rehabilitation of this system?
What level of scientific approach has been given to the development of this system?
What level of technical and financial capacity do we have to bring our system at par with
other renowned public transportation systems of the world?
What institutional strength have we shown in past? What particular institutional areas do
we need to improve upon?
Do we have a non-overlapping and integrated mechanism of planning and execution of
transportation projects?
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3 SECTOR ISSUES
1. Unlike big metropolitans like New York, London, Mumbai, Delhi and Beijing,
Public transportation in Karachi is considered to be a mode of commutation used
mainly by lower and middle lower class.
2. Due to absence of modal integration, improvidence while articulating transport

policy and weak central and provincial governance, people of Karachi are bound
to use inadequate, uncomfortable, and sub-standard public transport mainly
consisting of Mini Buses, CNG Buses, Rikshaws and non-motorized transport.
3. Karachi city has high-density mixed land use pattern prominent in its urban
development, which renders it more suitable for integrated Circular Railways,
complemented by road transport for intra-city commutation, than just road
transport being offered by private operators.
4. Inadequate public transport system has pushed a person to own a car or motor
cycle, which, in turn, has increased the rate of new vehicles coming on road every
new day. These private ownerships, backed by unparallel growth in planned urban
sprawl, has led to congestion on the major arterial road and links, especially in
morning and evening . This, in turn, has resulted in aggravated road safety
situation, raising the accident severity index to 45 percent in recent years.
5. Absence of road parking regulations leading towards the violation of fundamental

traffic rules and spoiling the civic sense in a common commuter.
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4 IMPORTANCE OF THE RESEARCH
Karachi makes a big contribution to national economic activities and represents an urban
centre with a huge population. Ever increasing population demands for proportional
increase in transportation needs of the masses. Since independence, however, the system
has not been developed effectively. In some instances, system failures in various aspects
have resulted in loss of national wealth.
People of Karachi make a huge contribution to raise national income and oil machinery
of total national economy. In return, they deserve to have a public transportation system
that meets their expectations and requirements of commutations and stands as
transportation mode of choice, as in other part of the world. All the problems indicated in
the literature review need to be addressed in holistic manner. If not timely addressed and
delayed even further, absence of a modernized and integrated transportation system will
adversely affect the comfort of people, economy of transportation and environment at
large.
Being exploratory and comparative in nature, this study is an expression of desire to have
a well developed transportation system. The study will eventually attempt to open eyes of
people whose collective presence has made this city a great commercial, industrial and
trade hub, the people whose aspirations have not been given preference while crafting the
system as we bear it today
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5 OBJECTIVES
The study has attempted to achieve following objectives:
1. To conduct an analysis to identify the stabilizing growth rates in population and

corresponding growth rate of transportation demand
2. To determine the most suitable modes of transportation for the people of Karachi,
keeping in view the characteristics of a common commuter and availability of
resources
3. To identify similar metropolitan cities with which a rational comparison can be
drawn and to benchmark the future improvements and developments in this sector
with sequence of precedence and successions.
4. To propose institutional changes for sustainable development and integrated
policy making.
5. To investigate why KCR Project (Karachi Circular Railway) is still on papers
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6 OBJECTIVE NO. 1
To conduct an analysis to identify the stabilizing growth rates in population and
corresponding growth rate of transportation demand
6.1 Research Methodology

This study takes into account the ‘seats available to population ratio’ of Mumbai and
Hong Kong and compares it with same ratio for Karachi. To perform extrapolative
calculations, the study has taken into account the growth patterns of populations and
vehicles in Karachi. This study also employs factual data like average number of seats in
a mini-bus and average number of seats in CNG buses. The study mainly employs
descriptive statistical tools like averages, extrapolations and forecast.
6.2 Limitation
This study does not take into account the number of seats that can be made available by
Karachi Circular Railway, if it comes online before 2015. So, the figures
derived/calculated may stand out as underestimated. Nevertheless, these figures
represents minimum degree dearth that exists in supply of the service.
6.3 Null Hypothesis

Growth in transportation means is consistent with growth in population of Karachi.
People of Karachi, therefore, has sufficient commutation resources, when compared with
internationally maintained transportation capacities of a given transport system.
6.4 Alternative Hypothesis

Growth in public transportation means has failed to keep pace up with growth in
population. Karachi requires transportation capacity increment to cater to the
commutation needs of the people.
6.5 Descriptive Analysis

Being centre of trade, industry and financial services, Karachi attracts lots of people from
different geographic regions of Pakistan. This has resulted in rapid growth in population
of the city and simmering needs of basic urban facilities. Infrastructure of transportation
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is one such area which has required serious attention from the stakeholders at large.
Shown below is the graph of vehicles growth trends in Karachi from 2002 to 2007
(actual) and from 2007 to 2013 (extrapolated).
6.5.1 Table - Vehicles growth rates from 2002 to 2013 (extrapolated)

Total No.
S. Registered Annual Monthly Daily
Year (Growth %)
No Vehicles in increase increase increase
Karachi
1 2002 1,113,917 30,640 2,553 84
2 2003 1,177,315 63,398 5,283 174 6%
3 2004 1,280,349 102,934 8,578 282 9%
4 2005 1,431,994 151,745 12,645 415 12%
5 2006 1,610,757 178,763 14,897 489 12%
6 2007 1,809,500 198,743 16,562 545 12%
200
7* 8 1,972,355 162,855 13,571 452 9%
200
8 9 2,149,867 177,512 14,793 493 9%
201
9 0 2,343,355 193,488 16,124 537 9%
201
10 1 2,554,257 210,902 17,575 586 9%
201
11 2 2,784,140 229,883 19,157 639 9%
201
12 3 3,034,713 250,573 20,881 696 9%
Source: Per Person Trip Study of Karachi by JICA
*Extrapolated from here on for growth rate of 9%
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Figure 6-1 - Vehicles Growth
Following graph shows the growth rates of population, vehicles on road and cars in
Karachi from year 1990 to 2002. This clearly depicts that the growth rates of cars have
exceeded that of total vehicles as population grew.
Figure 6-2 - Growth Trends of Vehicles and Cars versus Population

According to an estimate, population of Karachi is currently increasing at the rate of 5%
per annum and is expected to die down slowly no sooner than year 2020. This 5% rise in
the population is mainly due to migration of many from rural areas of Pakistan. The estimate
also shows that approximately 45,000 are coming to seek bread and butter in this city from
various parts of the country.
In order to have an insight into the future demand of public transportation in the city, the
study has taken into account the population growth rates and corresponding growth rates in
number of vehicles coming on road every new day. The divide of the vehicle consists of
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privately owned vehicles, mini-buses, coaches and para transits like rickshaws and taxis. This
study, firstly, embarks upon calculating an estimated number of buses that are needed to
serve the needs of population in its entirety. This is achieved by setting number of seats
available to population ratio of 1:12 equal to that of Mumbai, India. According to a study,
currently the ratio for Karachi is 1:40, which simply means that one seat is available for every
40 people taking on trip in the buses.
The calculations then take into account the actual figures of population, current capacity of
buses fleet and a CNG buses project named Shaheed Benazir Bhutto CNG Buses Project, which
plans to inject 4,000 CNG buses under a public-private partnership in five years time. This
project is deemed to serve 4.6 million people in the city and 40 routes have been determined
for these buses. These buses, on average, consist of 90 seats per bus. If these buses are
successfully added to the functional public transport of the city, we are likely to achieve the
seat to population ratio of 1:24 by the end of year 2015, as shown below in the calculations.
If correlation analysis of share of privately owned vehicles and share of public transport
vehicle of is performed, the study shall find negative correlation between the two as increment
in one will sure decrease the share of the other in total. This inference leads to the fact that
increases in public transportation means is bound to decrease growth rate of privately held
vehicles. This, in turn, leads to the fact that mass transit system and integration of the public
transportation system is bound to bring in environmental prosperity at large.
6.5.2 Table - Actual and Estimated Number of Vehicles on Roads
Actual (For Seat available to Estimated Demand (For Seat

population ratio of 1:40) available to population ratio of 1:12)*
No. of on road %age of No. of on road %age of
vehicles Total vehicles Total
Buses 2,300 19% 7,667 19%
Mini Buses 6,284 52% 20,946 52%
Coaches 3,562 29% 11,873 29%
Total 12,146 100% 40,486 100%
Source: City District Government Karachi. Urban bus scheme. http://www.karachicity. gov.pk/eip-
ubs.asp, 2005-11-24.
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Figure 6-3 – Breakup of Public Transport Modes
Figure 6-4 – Comparison of Actual vs. Estimated number of Coaches, Mini-

buses and Buses
6.6 Calculations for Estimated Demand

Actual Figures
Population of Karachi = 1,3117,680
Average no. of seats available in a vehicle = 27
Total no. of seats in 12,146 vehicles = 12,146 x 27 = 327,942
Estimated Demand Figures for seat available to population ratio of 1:12

Population of Karachi = 1,3117,680
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Average no. of seats available in a vehicle = 27
Total no. of seats required = 1,3117,680 / 12 = 1,093,140
Total no. of vehicles required = 1,093,140 / 27 = 40,486
Estimated current deficit (potential for reduction of growth rates of private vehicles that
stands at 12% per annum as of 2007)
=40,486 - 12,146 = 28,340

Population of Karachi after 5 years (in 2015 @ current growth of 5% per year) = 1,3117,680 x
1.05^5 = 16,741,853
No of seats to be generated by 4000 CNG buses with avg. seating capacity of 90 seats per bus =
4000 x 90 =360,000
Expected total no. of seats in 2015 in buses = 360,000 + 327,942 = 687,942
Expected seats available to population ratio in 2015 will be 1:24

Note : * Mumbai's seat available to population ratio of 1:12 is taken as benchmark for Karachi: For
Hong Kong, this ratio is 1:8
6.7 Findings
The study has calculated the deficit that exists in comparison to the benchmark ratio.
According to the calculation given below, there exists deficit of 28,340 buses or equivalent of
765,198 seats in the city. This deficit, at one place depicts the simmering need of comfortable
and hassle free public transport. From another viewpoint, it suggests the way we can reduce
the growth rate of privately owned vehicles in the city. Reducing the inclination/need of people
to own private vehicles can only be reduced if they are made available with the transportation
services of their choice, which can only be made possible by introducing a mass transit system
consisting of multi-modal transportation means. This also calls for efficient and integrated
transportation management system that is missing from the landscape due to lack of
institutional capacity. If we are to achieve the desired level of transportation capacity by the
end of 2015, the project in pipeline, as reviewed in literature review, need to be kicked-off
with no time waste. Having calculated and quoted the figures for deficit and estimated
demands, this study suggests that alternative hypothesis holds true.
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7 OBJECTIVE NO. 2
To determine the most suitable modes of transportation for the people of Karachi,
keeping in view the characteristics of a common commuter and availability of resources
This study has necessitated going through all the literature review presented in the
beginning related to this objective. This study also takes into account the inferences drew
in the previous section. The theoretical framework presented in the literature review
originates from various research journals, newspapers and official websites of various
organizations.
7.2 Limitation
This study aims to undertake major modes of transportation like buses and para-transits.
Modes like small wagons and cattle vehicles are not part of the study.
7.3 Null Hypothesis
The resources and facilities are satisfactory and people are happy with them.
The resources and facilities require rational and integrative improvements.
7.5 Thematic Analysis
Karachi city has grown from a small town at a sea port, mainly known for its commercial
activities around the sea port, to a full-fledged city with millions of dwellers hailing from
multi-ethnic backgrounds and diverse commercial activities. Urbanization is taking place
at the periphery of the city and currently there are 18 towns constituting the city. The
Central Business District of Karachi which spans from Saddar and through Jamshed and
Kemari towns stand out as a big convergence point of retail and trading activities in the
city. The CBD encircles many wholesale markets, warehouses of different sort, office
building, banks, financial institutions, transport hubs like truck and bus stands, etc. no
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less than 50 percent of the employments are concentrated in the inner part of the city.
With this, new industrial zones are likely to emerge as the city grows even more. Table
give below shows the densest areas with respect to commutation activities in the city.
7.5.1 Table - Top 10 Most Travelled Spots in Karachi
According to a survey, there migrate 45000 people every month. This huge migrations
demand for industrial space allocations and new industrial zones are likely to emerge as
the time passes by. Also, commercial growth is taking place along major arterials of the
city. While most residential establishments are one or two storey buildings, significant
densification is also taking place by constructing upper storey and further divisions of
large plots. In many old residential areas, apartment buildings with five to six storeys
have superseded the bungalow type housing with much lower densities.
Migration of masses to the city has brought evolutionary changes in the urban sprawl of
the city, as many suburbs and outskirts have come into being. Most of the people who
came in and settled in newly unplanned populated areas, commute to trade and industrial
centers like CBD (Central Business District), SITE, Korangi industrial area, Landhi, and
Port Qasim, to name a few.
People travel to far flung areas to their workplaces. Many people do part time, low
salaried jobs in different areas, to earn very basic level of household income. Their ability
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to obtain employment and education is highly dependent on the costs and availability of
public transport.
To cater to the need of the population, there were about 44,480 yellow and black &
yellow taxi’s as of December, 2005. Similarly, there were 39,462 Rickshaws serving to
dwellers. Two stroke Rickshaws were phased out in 2007 and they were replaced by
CNG ‘TUK TUK’ Rickshaws.
Income, the key determinant of work opportunities available, largely hinge on the
availability of transport. The person who is able to catch a bus in time can open up a new
job on the day. Available transportation facilities can leave far-reaching implications on
livelihood of people. 70% population of Karachi has household income below Rs. 10,000
per month. When compared with the income level, expenditure of Rs. 500 to 1000 per
month per family constitutes from 3% to 26% of total of monthly income. With that, poor
safety conditions when commuting is a serious risk to lives of many as indicated by the
yearly 600 death incidents in the city, mostly those of pedestrians. This, when statistically
and economically analyzed, shows that an average commuter pays heavily for usage of
the transportation, especially when the person is only breadwinner of the family. In
practice the majority of blue-collar jobs remained near the city centre, whereas the
government had already shifted the low-income residents by force to the outskirts. The
passage of time has revealed that the city, nor the country for that matter, has never had
the financial or technical/manpower resources to sustain that ‘grand’ vision. The amount
spent by the low-income group on transport is a substantial burden on their daily/monthly
budgets. An increase in fares is predictable. With annual national budget announcements,
the oil prices go up and with it the fares for public transport. These disproportionate
increases in fares affect the livelihoods of urban poor. Most of the poor spend 10 per cent
or more of their monthly earnings on their work-related transport. Overall transport
expenses could be much higher. The monthly incomes of most of the people are between
Rs1500 and Rs 6000.
Approximately a total time of more than two hours every day going to work and coming
back while for some it is more than four hours daily. Excessive time and money is spent
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reaching work places, and mental tension, physical discomfort, and stress are common.
The lack of access to and poor quality of the public transport further reduce the
opportunities available to the poor. The opportunity costs of the resources spent on public
transport, both financial and social, is huge. The same resources could be spent on other
more productive activities like spending time with the family, primary education, and
income-generating activities. Average travel time, subsequent delay and speed of travel
are tabulated for major roads of the city.
7.5.2 Table - Average Travel Time, Delay and Speed
Passengers have to travel hanging on the doors or sitting on the roof-tops of public
transport vehicles during peak hours. Traveling while standing throughout the duration of
travel in great heat; hanging partly or completely outside the vehicle; having to sit on
roof-tops (with the obvious fears); the non-availability of seats and the bad condition of
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the seats. In many cases the passenger’s clothes are torn or smeared with dirt and/or oil;
clothes and shoes get soiled and wrinkled; suffocating from smoke and lack of fresh air;
losing their balance or even falling over while standing in the fast-moving vehicles; and
speeding and dangerous driving.
Passengers cannot rely on the transport service. Daily timetables or even lists of the
number of services available on a given route are non-existent. Passengers have to rely on
verbal information and guess when planning their trips. Almost everyone has to wait at
least 10-15 minutes at bus-stops without knowing when the bus will arrive. The result is
long waits and anxiety.
Women commuters also undergo perils due to mobility constraints and inadequate
standard of services. Most of the public transport women commuters take Islamic veil
which makes them demand for separate seating section in a given mode of transport.
Comparatively women travel for shorter distances than men, and usually carry shopping
bags, children and elders with them. I case of students, females carry sizable books and
bags. In limited number of so called ‘dedicated’ women seats, the women compete with
men for the seats. It indeed is difficult for women to compete owing to the civic sense,
cultural backgrounds and male dominance nature of the society. The private operators are
least bothered by the segregation and maintenance of separate seats for women as their
goal is to maximize returns not upholding ethics and respect for women in general. Mane
women, especially student class, have limited budget to sustain their commutation needs.
The service they get is not free of risks of sexual and verbal harassment.
In any sort of planning, children passengers are neglected for no apparent reason. There is
always a lack of space in a people laden buses and conductors would mal-treat them.
Students would carry heavy bags as they travel from home to school and back home.
Students face many hardships as they travel. Exposure to impolite gestures and vulgar
language, facing irrational bus routes that never ensures timely travel to their educational
centers and above all, issue of safety are the topics need to be addressed.
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Improvements in transport not only provide people with more convenient access to a
broad range of socio-economic opportunities, but also have strong income effects by
lowering transport cost and hence the prices of consumer goods and services
In these ways, transport exerts a pervasive contribution to the improvement in personal

welfare.
7.6 Findings
Urban land use and housing planning is lacking synchronization with workplace
opportunities for the working class. This has resulted in having people require rational
split of modes of transportation. Moreover, this demands for strategic and long term
planning of the further spread of the city imminent in coming decades. Due to in the
hands of private operators, who mostly do not show moral binding to most of the
transportation related issues and concerns of the commuters, people require an
improvised and regularized transportation system. This system should take into account
gender and age differences and subsequent needs of commutation of travelers.
Improvements and rationalization will increase productive movements in the city and will
improvise economical, social and civic status of the commuters. Access to infrastructure
services like public transportation brings radical changes to welfare of commons. People
will experience improvised socio-economic opportunities and lowered costs of
commutation would allow them to spend more on other necessities of life, thus raising
their standards of lives. With remote locations of housing and residences of working
class, the dearth or inexistence of government regulated and/or subsidized transportation;
people are bound to use transport run by private operator at substandard conditions
offered. This is one of the major causes of growing frustration, hampered productivity
and waste of energies on unproductive engagements. To cater to the needs of men,
women and children residing in the city, buses of improvised quality service have
become need of time. Mini buses operational these have failed to provide the desired
level of service and need to be overhauled thoroughly. This can be done with a census on
the lines of public-private partnerships. This move would allow for bigger buses with
more than 50 seats in a bus and regulated to respect every commuter’s needs. The areas
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with high pedestrian traffic need to be redesigned in accordance with people movements
along the tracks. Encroachments alongside the major and minor arterials require to be
resettled somewhere else. It calls for small markets plan accommodating such
encroachers in localities. Ongoing CNG buses project is hoped to address major
transportation issues to date if is integrated with Karachi Circular Railway project.
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8 OBJECTIVE NO. 3
To identify similar metropolitan cities with which a rational comparison can be drawn
and to benchmark the future improvements and developments in this sector with
sequence of precedence and successions
8.1 Methodology
This study takes comparative approach to gain an insight into transportation system of
comparable metropolitans of India and china. Demographics and geographical
similarities of the metropolitans are taken into consideration to develop a comparable
picture. As the study for this objective progresses, comparative figures are used to draw a
deductive or inductive inference. All the subsequent critical analysis and figures are
going to be based on secondary data collected from various research reports published in
various research journals and technical reports of various organizations, official websites
of various newspapers and websites related to the area of study, as mentioned in
references part of the proposal.
8.2 Null Hypothesis

Demographics and geography of the metropolitans under consideration are absolutely the
same and planners of Karachi transport system can follow their transport development
planning blindly.

Karachi, Beijing and Mumbai share most of the demographic and geographic
characteristics. The development planning, as followed in the foreign cities, requires to
be modified before implementing in Karachi.
8.4 Comparative Analysis

In many ways, the scenario in India is quite similar to Pakistan. One big commonality is
low per-capita income that is US $1030 (for Pakistan, it is US $1027). 23% of India’s
urban population is living in poverty. Most important public transport problems Indian
public face include operational inefficiencies, congestion on roads, unsecure traffic and
roads, weak planning, dearth of transportation facilities, noise pollution and lack of
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traffic management systems. Similar are the issues that China, in general, face in its
public transportation system with an exception in area of planning. So far, most of the
development has taken place with well-thought urban and land use planning,
complementing other infrastructure facilities in it two big cities namely Shanghai and
Beijing. Suburbanization and population growth in the cities of Karachi, Mumbai, Delhi
and Beijing are quite similar.
Both in Chinese and Indian metropolitans, problems of overwhelming population growth,

ever increasing urban sprawl and sharp increase in private vehicles ownership has
qualified the countries for comparison with Pakistani metropolitans such as Karachi.
Although Chinese have invested a great deal of money in new roadways and
infrastructural development, its planning seems to have ignored equivalent development
of intra city local roads to supplement the bigger motorways and highway traffic coming
in and moving out of the city. For instance, although Beijing and Shanghai have extended
motorway networks, their intra city local roads are still constrict and clogged up. Another
fact renders this situation worse. Most affluent people live in the core of the city and own
car when space for it is least. Travel demand is also concentrated due to mono-centric
land use patterns of the cities and most commercial activities; feeding most of the
Chinese, is concentrated in the core of the cities.
From year 1995 to 2003, number of buses has increased 4 times in Beijing and doubled in
Shanghai. This clearly shows the growing population commutation needs catered by bus
services in recent past. Beijing has a network of interlinked traffic signals that controls
flow of road traffic and Mumbai is also modernizing in these traffic management tools.
Traffic regulations are strictly made to observe in Beijing while situation is quite similar
to what we see in Karachi when we talk about Mumbai. In Mumbai investment is to
develop infrastructure of the transportation is majorly channeled to construction of
intersections, underpasses and flyovers, and improvement in quality of roads. This
investment, like Karachi, has brought in very positive change as traffic accidents and
congestion have reduced significantly.
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To cater to increasing urban population in Beijing, Chinese have undertaken construction
of new rail routes and expansion of existing ones. Six Chinese cities already have state of
the art metro networks (Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Shenzhen), and
the 406 kilometer long route metro network in those cities is currently on expansion to
expend to another 256 kilometer. In China, importance of metro systems can be gauged
by knowing the fact that ten more Chinese cities are considering metro system to cater to
the growing transportation needs of the people.
Chinese intend to spend a huge amount of money to build and expand upon metro and
light rail systems. Like Karachi (US $ 872 million appropriated for KCR), Chinese have
appropriated US $1 billion a year since year 2002 in Beijing and US $1.7 billion a year in
Shanghai. This clearly demonstrates the importance of metro systems in a city which has
been serviced mostly by buses and is now expanded with philosophy of integration of
road-rail systems.
It is worth mentioning here that fares of metro system that currently exists in Shanghai
and Beijing are generally too high for people living below poverty line (10.2% people in
China live below poverty line). Metro and light-rail fares are about three times higher
than bus fares. These fares are so high that Chinese government had to intervene and fuel
the metro system with subsidies. If example of Karachi is taken, in Karachi, according to
Asian Development Bank, 50.2 percent residents of Karachi are living below poverty line
(2007 statistics). Economy of China and Pakistan, especially that of both the
metropolitans (Karachi and Beijing) is not comparable. This raises a question of
sustainability and affordability of Karachi Circular Railway project.
Only Delhi and Kolkata have metro systems in place. At peak hours, these systems run
full. In some instances, as a survey suggested, these systems accommodated more than
twoce the design capacity of trains. People would hang out of doors or windows. For
thjose failing to get hold onto metro trains, buses, rickshaws and taxis are modes of
choice. People would own bikes which allow them to maneuver between the traffic. This
situation is quite similar to what we see in Karachi where bike riders would tend to
overtake bigger vehicles during congestions. The point worth mentioning here is that,
India has made an integrated mass transit system available for the people in Delhi and
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Kolkata. This certainly has a positive impact on private vehicles ownership and certainty
of public transport to commute reliably. To achieve a greater degree of integration, delhi
government is now considering construction of over 100 Km Bus Rapid Transit in
coming 5 years. In Delhi, transport system has real time information systems to monitor
buses locations. Bus routing optimization, traffic signals coordination, information about
arrivals and departures at key bus stops etc. This should draw attention of CDGK
planners.
Chinese planners have always considered rights and needs of pedestrians and non-
motorized vehicles while chalking out plans for road transport. The roads accommodate
walking and cycling. In contrast to Pakistan and India, most of the Chinese cities use to
have pavements, crosswalks, traffic signals for pedestrians and cyclists and special lane
for cyclists. In contrast to India, most Chinese cities provide pavements, crosswalks,
cycle paths, cycle lanes, and special traffic signals for pedestrians and cyclists.
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9 OBJECTIVE NO. 4
To propose institutional changes for sustainable development and integrated policy
making

This study takes into account a research model named Four Pilars Model for Sustainable
Urban Transportation System. Firstly, the study attempts to depict the model very briefly
and then go on to compare the current transportation with the model and indentify the
gaps which exist in the system.
9.2 Null Hypothesis

The existing transportation system is ideal and does not lack in aspects of governance,
financial resources allocation, infrastructure planning and land use structure.
9.3 Alternate Hypothesis

The existing needs to be developed on scientific lines so that it eventually becomes
sustainable in the long run.
9.4 Comparative/Gap Analysis

Pakistan lacks clear policies on the direction of transport that is apparent on a national
level. The most significant setback in this regard is the state’s inability to develop a
transport policy altogether. Three separate drafts had been proposed by three different
agencies: The Planning Commission, Chartered Institute of Transport, Pakistan (CITP),
and National Transport Research Center (NTRC) but they were all put on hold because of
other major political concerns. The Free Transport policy is prevalent in Pakistan, where
any vehicle can travel on any road except a few notable exceptions. A consequence of
this ineffective policy is that every type of vehicle is forced in every type of way forcing
slow-down and congestion in the whole transport system. Another aspect which impacts
the level of improvements in the system has only recently been remedied. The Transport
sector has only just recently been given the status of an industry in Pakistan resulting in
Expansive Investments and subsequent improvements. However, the lack of a definite
policy has resulted in solutions being implemented only partially and on a temporary
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basis. The Karachi Metropolitan Authority was temporarily established, but failed to
survive in an uncertain environment. Hence, in order to establish sustainability in the
Transport industry, the government needs to implement firmer and permanent measures.
The First step in these measures would be to abolish the free transport policy in favor of a
more effective and clearly defined policy.
This study incorporates the ‘Four Pillar Model of Sustainable Urban Transportation’ as a
guiding beacon for institutionalization of public transport system of Karachi. According
to this theoretical model, following are the major determinants upon which structure of a
sustainable transport system rests:
1. Formation of effective governing agencies for planning of integrated land-use

transportation
2. Formation of efficient, affordable and viable funding systems
3. Improvements and strategic investment in basic transport infrastructure
4. Use of local design to support the implemented infrastructure.
In the model used, these factors serve as the vital ‘pillars’ of urban transportation which
is sustainable for a longer period of time. In the context of Pakistan, several key issues
need to be addressed. The study attempts to address these key issues and study them in
greater detail for maximum effect.
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43
Figure 9-1 - Four Pillar Model for Sustainable Public Transportation System
The first ‘pillar’ is related to the governance. The government may seriously hamper the
ability of the individual who wishes to develop a sustainable urban transport system by
being uncooperative. It is generally observed that these governing bodies tend to lack the
will, power or authority to make these decisions which would facilitate the development
of sustained unban transport.
In public transportation institutions, an institutional culture is always lacking due to low

financial capacity, lack of management and technical skills and lack of empowerment of
thee entities. This has led to ineffective performance of public sector, semi-public sector,
public-private community sector, private franchised sector and deregulated private sector.
The most common observed problem that is generally encountered is the aversion to
responsibility that the transport authorities possess in relation to the suggestions of Land-
use planners. This model squarely bases its emphasis on integrated land-use for a
sustainable urban transport. In keeping with this focus, the several aspects of an ideal
governance body come to light regarding transport planning. The establishment of a
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44
stable and effective funding system for the necessary investments becomes a key aspect
of urban transport planning. In order to establish such a funding system, a steady flow of
capital investments are required. There is a need for long-term investment in
infrastructure to ensure the growth of sustainable urban transport. It is viable to utilize
existing infrastructure that is already well-established. This utilization of existing
resources will be more beneficial economically and structurally, as compared to
developing new and untried infrastructures.
The existing system is seen to be very inefficient as a grossly-estimated seventy-five

percent of all trips inside the city are made on Gasoline based vehicles, which are one of
the major causes of the un-sustainability of the urban transport system. A cut-down of
this excessive rate of resource wastage and an increase in environment friendliness
justifies long term investments in improving and developing new infrastructures. These
significant investments do need support from the local system if they are to be properly
implemented and regulated.
Further smaller investments need to be done in order to entice people to walk, cycle, and
use mass-transit more. These local actions may prove to be most beneficial when they are
implemented along with the larger-scale investments in the infrastructure. The
implementation of these community-centric measures along with the major infrastructure
improvements form the essence of planning that is required for integrated sustainable
urban transport.
The planning that is concerned with integrated land-use transport begins with the
formation of specialized government bodies overseeing and regulating the new transport
system. In city development mechanism, changes made to one part may affect the part in
unexpected ways and yield unexpected consequences. This can only be avoided by
offering a solution to this complication by establishing policies and plans in such a
comprehensive and integrated way that even the minutest detail is not overlooked. But
this careful approach to transport planning and land-use is difficult to implement because
of lack of essential coordination on the part of the government and regulating bodies.
Singapore, Zurich, Tama Garden, and Curitiba are few of the cities that have
recognizable integrated land-use and transportation planning.
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45
The cities with high accessibility are assigned mass-transit, whereas areas of the city
which are less accessible are made accessible through walking paths and bicycles. This
approach maximizes land-use and proves highly environment-friendliness. A major
hurdle in the effective implementation of these concepts is the inability of the
government to support new endeavors. Due to a difference in opinion on the
responsibilities that are to be distributed within the government agencies, the transport
system suffers as a whole. This is evident in the lack of empowerment for planning in
charter of National Transit Authority of Pakistan.
The theoretical framework of ‘four pillar model’ is summarized in the figure below:
Figure 9-2 Essential Components of Transit and How They Work Together
9.5 Findings
Public transport planning and policies have turned out to be unproductive due to flaws in
governance structure. In Pakistan, transport planning has been divided into road network
development and maintenance and public transport planning. The road development
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46
authorities such as NHA have full hierarchy and capacity whereas public transport
departments are limited to provinces only. There exists a lack of human resources and
capacity in these departments. Due to lack of institutional structure, all previous
endeavors to craft policies have failed and city of millions is yet to see an integrated
policy draft. Sustainability in this sector also demands for mixed land use which can only
be made possible if proper platforms exist when policy making is undertaken. Research
in this area shown that mix land use, in turn, demands for multi-modal transportation
system at metropolitan level. Investment in the area of public transport naturally
discourages expansion in private vehicles on road and proper funding combined with
long term planning can bring in positive changes. Fortunately, Karachi has all the
potential to accommodate all such changes owing to the nature of mix land use and urban
sprawl so far.
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10 OBJECTIVE NO. 5
To investigate why KCR Project (Karachi Circular Railway) is still on papers
This study has attempted to explore various newspapers and articles therein, to
investigate the reason(s) behind elongated delay of the project. Rather than technical
aspects, this study has emphasized more on socio-economic problems associated with the
project. The study builds upon thematic analysis of the data gathered from sources
mentioned above and attempts to conclude why the delay has happened even when funds
are available from Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
10.2 Limitations
This study does not attempt to undertake technical and purely economical reasons which
might have caused the delay.
10.3 Null Hypothesis
KCR is acceptable to all the stakeholders and is welcome by everyone
10.4 Alternate Hypothesis
KCR has been delayed due to socio-economic factors and vested interests of the
stakeholders.
10.5 Thematic Analysis
The Karachi Circular Railways was founded in 1962 and served primarily as a goods
transport mechanism. The Karachi circular Railways linked five major industrial districts
of the city of Karachi. The efficiency and convenience that was associated with this
endeavor led to the enterprise being opened to general citizens who availed this service.
The success of this mode of transportation meant that the Karachi Circular Railways
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48
would be further upgraded. But this planed upgrade did not go as well as planned and the
mode of transport itself suffered a decrease in popularity. This resulted in the decline of
the concept of the use of railways as a means for travel inside the city limits. This
decrease in popularity led to the advent of the buses as the first choice of people who
wanted to use public transport as the means of day-to-day conveyance. The buses system
was considered quicker and more efficient than the Train system in this regard. The
Karachi Circular Railways was closed for public use in 1999, when it was no longer
feasible for the government to keep operating these Train systems. The Karachi Circular
Railways was proposed to be revived as a project by the Pakistan Railways to serve as an
effective means to travel in between the city. This would help alleviate the problems of
the traffic that lead to the increase in vehicles on the roads of the city. In order to achieve
an efficient system for the Railways, the single tracks spread throughout the city are to be
upgraded to double line standards.
There are about 20,000 families dwelling in informal settlements alongside of the railway
tracks. The total land encircles 3, 119 acres of land, which accounts for 0.7% of total land
area of Karachi. Currently, 25 informal settlements on total of 291 acres of railway land
dwell illegally. This occupancy accounts for 9.33% of total railway land. For KCR
project to succeed these settlements are to be relocated. The dwellers have grouped
themselves under the hood of All Pakistan Alliance for Katchi Abadis (APAKA).
Purpose of this organization is to resist the changes being implemented in the informal
settlements and negotiate the terms and conditions on the basis of which decisions of
relocation can be taken. To conduct the relocation and bring about the change, two NGOs
namely Urban Resource Centre (URC) and Orangi Pilot Project–Research and Training
Institute (OPP–RTI) have played an instrumental role sp far as they helped conducting
initial surveys for relocation and documentation of historical evolution of these
settlements.
Main stakeholders of this relocation process, which is purely an issue of railway land
dispute, include CDGK, Government of Sind, Pakistan Railways, Railways Employee
Union and ‘Katchi Abadis’ or low income settlements. Railway Employees Union wants
accommodation on the land whereas Katchi Abadis want regularization of this land. In
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49
connection to this, commercial sector wants long-term leases on the land. The interesting
point is that no formal, goal seeking sitting has taken place so far. This is mainly due to
the vested interest of people sitting in corridors of power.
The main concern of the formal and informal settlements is that of relocation process and
its transparency. People are afraid to an extent that they believe if newly elected
government steps into the matter later on, the terms and conditions which are held true
today, would be declared void later on by the government. Moreover, the relocation
proposals envisaged sp far offer to relocate the settlements to places which would take
them far away from their workplaces and they will not be able to manage their sources of
sustenance. People who continue to stick to current workplaces would have to bear high
costs of transportation to commute. Women are mostly likely to be affected the worse by
this relocation process, suggested by APAKA because they will simply have to give up
jobs/work to manage family life. In summary, the poor will grow even poorer.
A number of alternatives like construction of overhead railway tracks and conversion of
KCR tracks into BRT lanes are in place but these proposals are yet to be scrutinized.
Replacement of KCR tracks with BRT would
Karachi Urban Transport Corporation (KUTC) has declared this project essential for
Karachi as this project offers to cover 6 % of total of 24.2 million trips per day. With that,
removal of formal and informal settlements will have to be relocated with consensus on
part of the entire stakeholder. It is worth mentioning here that difficult part is to negotiate
with formal settlements and this represents 72 percent of the length of total proposed
tracks. This indicates how difficult the negotiation process can be before the project is
taken up.
10.6 Findings
Undoubtedly Karachi needs KCR but it is quite clear that the nature of issue has become
socio-economic in nature rather than technical alone. According to studies in place, the
authorities might have to go for elevated tracks, right above the existing ones. This will
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50
call for more funding from the financiers and more time to conduct technical and
financial feasibilities and environmental assessments. Another option of BRT in place of
KCR tracks is attractive. But, again, this require a thorough technical and commercial
scrutiny into the matter, preliminary studies 40% reduced evictions though. Given
volatile political situation in the country and ever increasing corruptions in the country
suggest that KCR project is quite away from its realization.
Although Environmental Impact Assessment, conducted by Environmental Management

Consultants and feasibility of KCR prepared by KUTC and Mass Transit Cell Karachi,
propose development of this project in phases. It is however, noticeable that if the project
happens to miss upon anything planned at any stage, the project will fail to offer intended
benefit and the question of integration will remain where it is. Moreover, if the project is
undertaken partially and its complete development is halted at any stage due whatsoever
reason, it is likely that people will be encouraged to own private cars because of the fact
that road based transportation would have been reshuffled and the distorted structure
would fail to provide the level of accessibility to people what they currently have in the
presence of private operators, who have penetrated to sub-arterials of the city.
When we look at other mass transit system around the globe, rail line or metro projects
have required government’s financial assistances to run the operations. When rail fares
are compared with buses, these systems stand out as costlier than road based
transportation services. Even if KCR goes live, it will be of high interest to see if
government of Sind or Pakistan commits subsidies to sustain the system for long. As all
these factors delay the project even more, the formal and informal settlements will have
more time to grow even stronger and gain on negotiation power. It like a mire that GoS
and GoP has stepped in.
There is no doubt that Karachi needs an upgraded KCR. However, there are possibilities
for using parts of the existing corridor and linking these up to other available corridors.
To do this, a whole new approach needs to be adopted, which will take time and which
the government is unlikely to even consider. The other option is to build elevated tracks
above the existing ones. This will be expensive but will save on relocation costs for the
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51
existing settlements. A cost benefit analysis along these lines has not yet been prepared
but it would be interesting to see the result. A CDGK study on Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
for Karachi has suggested converting the KCR and the main line within the circle into a
BRT, in which case it is estimated that evictions will be reduced by about 40 per cent.
Given Pakistan’s political uncertainty it is doubtful that a consensus leading to the
implementation of the KCR project will take place in the near future. Meanwhile, the
communities can keep strengthening themselves.
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52
11 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
A vital underlying reason for the conduction of this study was to identify what are the
reasons which prevent the growth of sustainable urban transport in Karachi. The
reluctance of the government to adapt effective land-use planning, failure of the bus
companies to expand their capacities and failure to utilize existing technologies in their
proper aspect are the key problems facing the growth of the transport industry as a whole.
The development of effective policies has always been hampered by inability of the
government and other bodies to accept the change involved with the new system. Road
organizations and public transport organizations have had a key hand in determining the
planning of transport in Pakistan. The road organizations have full structural integrity in
their organization. Whereas, at a provincial level, the public transport organizations tend
to exist as less organized structures. This lack of structure results in significant
differences in how the policies are designed and how they are implemented. In these
Public transport companies existing in the public sector, there is a lack of finances to
support any corrective actions. There is a veritable shortage of human resources that
hampers the actions taken and limits them to a limited amount of transport personnel. The
lack of these organizations to function as an effective organization stems from the lack of
proper and effective management in their ranks. Combinations of these defects are
contributing factors towards the deterioration of the transport industry as a whole.
There have been attempts at creating effective bodies for the regulation of transport such
as National Transit Authority. The National Transit Authority should function as an equal
National Highway Authority, to help in the regulatory matters. These bodies ensure the
presence of a strong infrastructure to support transport growth. They also maintain the
effective planning and execution of various different laws that take effect once the
legislation allows for their use. These agencies ensure that proper land-use, the dense
population and transport factors are taken correctly in the respective cases for effective
planning and regulation. There is a need for an intra-city train setup to be introduced to
lower the overcapacities in the public busses. These overcapacities could also be reduced
by designating bigger vehicles for more traffic, whereas, smaller vehicle would be
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53
designated for less number of people. This segmentation would significantly decrease the
load felt by just one type of vehicle operating in the mass transit industry.
The investment that is done for transport projects is divided amongst other motorized
budgets which do not approach level of planning required for this sustainable level of
transport. This level is achieved by the proper and adequate responses to individual
recourses which have an impact on the overall working of the transport services. The
planning facilities that are required for such an advanced level of planning would
requisite a certain necessary expense. However, this current expense would mean that the
industry would not be under the suffering of the age old yoke of the faulty planning
process and would progress as a result.
This effective planning would be the cornerstone of development in the transport

industry. The planning of budgets would take into account that the users of cars should be
taxed further than they are now. Other stringent checks should also be present to
encourage the use of public and mass-transit services that are well-planned and effective
for use. This would mean that the newly acquired land-use planning policies would
properly be implemented. The failure to implement these strategies would result in a
drastic decrease in overall efficiency of the planned system and the implementation of the
process would also suffer catastrophic consequences as a result. This increase in
investment would also mean the new infrastructure has added financial support for other
emerging transport advances that may be required following the expansion of people in
the transport industry. This expansion would also signal the success of the new transport
system and herald a new age for sustainable land use in Pakistan. The environment would
also benefit from eco-friendly vehicles that would be efficient in the stemming of
Environmental pollution. This pollution has long been the purveyor of global warming
and environmental catastrophes occurring inside the Earth’s atmosphere. The societal
aspect of this expansion would be that the community would come together as whole and
support each other as community system
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54
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KORATTYSWAROOPAM; Rutgers University, New Brunswick,
NJ, USA; University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia; University of
Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, USA Taylor and Francis.
• URBANIZATION CHALLENGES IN PAKISTAN DEVELOPING
VISION 2030 MURTAZA HAIDER, PH.D. Assistant Professor,
School of Urban Planning & Department of Civil Engineering,
McGill University http://www.milute.mcgill.ca
http://www.regionomics.com
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64
• Keywords
• Introduction – CHANGE LITERATURE REVIEW AND INTRIDUCTION

POSITION
• Appendices
• Further research
• Print
• Gantt chart
• Workload matrix
• FINDINGS OF OBJECTIVE NO 3
Page
65

Report On The Mass Transit System

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ARE WE THERE YET?

MASTERS OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

BUSINESS RESEARCH METHODS

RESEARCH PROJECT REPORT

Noman Ahmed (0936130)

Summer Semester 2010

Mr. Saami Haamid

Masters of Business Administration

SZABIST - Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Institute of

This study concludes that an integrated, multi-modal and sustainable public

Figure 6-1 - Vehicles Growth..........................................................................27

Figure 6-2 - Growth Trends of Vehicles and Cars versus Population..............27

Figure 6-3 – Breakup of Public Transport Modes............................................29

Figure 6-4 – Comparison of Actual vs. Estimated number of Coaches, Mini-

1.2 Transportation – Facts And Figures

1.2.1 Table – Growth Pattern of Vehicles (Actual)

1.1.1 Table – Total Person Trips In Different Towns Of Karachi

Lyari Expressway and Northern bypass

Rail-based Mass Transit System

1.4 Looming Issues and Academicians Viewpoints

Adoption of the principles of sustainable transportation has become more important in

Pakistan Transport Plan Study (PTPS, 2008) said

1.5 Theoretical Support for Improvement and Benchmarking

1.6 Like Countries Transportation Systems (Urban Transport Trends

2. Due to absence of modal integration, improvidence while articulating transport

5. Absence of road parking regulations leading towards the violation of fundamental

The study has attempted to achieve following objectives:

1. To conduct an analysis to identify the stabilizing growth rates in population and

6.1 Research Methodology

6.3 Null Hypothesis

6.4 Alternative Hypothesis

6.5 Descriptive Analysis

6.5.1 Table - Vehicles growth rates from 2002 to 2013 (extrapolated)

Figure 6-2 - Growth Trends of Vehicles and Cars versus Population

6.5.2 Table - Actual and Estimated Number of Vehicles on Roads

Actual (For Seat available to Estimated Demand (For Seat

Figure 6-4 – Comparison of Actual vs. Estimated number of Coaches, Mini-

6.6 Calculations for Estimated Demand

Estimated Demand Figures for seat available to population ratio of 1:12

=40,486 - 12,146 = 28,340

Expected seats available to population ratio in 2015 will be 1:24

7.1 Research Methodology

7.3 Null Hypothesis

7.4 Alternative Hypothesis

The resources and facilities require rational and integrative improvements.

7.5 Thematic Analysis

7.5.1 Table - Top 10 Most Travelled Spots in Karachi

7.5.2 Table - Average Travel Time, Delay and Speed

In these ways, transport exerts a pervasive contribution to the improvement in personal

8.2 Null Hypothesis

8.3 Alternative Hypothesis

8.4 Comparative Analysis

Both in Chinese and Indian metropolitans, problems of overwhelming population growth,

9.1 Research Methodology

9.2 Null Hypothesis

9.3 Alternate Hypothesis

9.4 Comparative/Gap Analysis

1. Formation of effective governing agencies for planning of integrated land-use

2. Formation of efficient, affordable and viable funding systems

3. Improvements and strategic investment in basic transport infrastructure

4. Use of local design to support the implemented infrastructure.

In public transportation institutions, an institutional culture is always lacking due to low