EJERCICIO PRACTICO 5: METODO DE WINTERS

 
 
 
 

 
 
 
 
DUBERNEY CAMARGO SANCHEZ
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
PLANIFICACION DE LA PRODUCCION
FACULTAD DE INGENIERIA
CORPORACION UNIVERSITARIA IBEROAMERICANA
INGENIERIA INDUSTRIAL
2021
AÑO MESES TRIMESTRE VENTAS St Tt Et 90
80
-3 1
70
-2 2 0.400
2000 60
-1 3 1.400
50
0 4 1.300
40
1 1 16 0.800
30
2 2 32 24.000 16.000 0.400
2001 20
3 3 71
10
4 4 62 0
5 1 14 0 1 2 3

6 2 45
2002
7 3 84
8 4 47

α 0.3
β 0.1
γ 0.1
 L 4

AÑO MESES TRIMESTRE VENTAS St Tt Et Pt

-3 1
-2 2 0.400
2000
-1 3 1.300
0 4 1.400
1 1 17 0.800
2 2 32 24.500 15.000 0.400
2001
3 3 71 44.035 15.453 1.331 77.335
4 4 62 54.927 14.997 1.373 97.895
5 1 14 54.197 13.425 0.746 54.098
6 2 45 81.085 14.771 0.415 38.343
2002
7 3 84 86.029 13.788 1.296 132.881
8 4 47 80.143 11.821 1.294 126.254
9 1 68.589
10 2 43.122
2003
11 3 149.796
12 4 164.919
ERROR 95.323

α 0.3
β 0.1
γ 0.1
L 4

AÑO MESES TRIMESTRE VENTAS St Tt Et Pt

-3 1
-2 2 0.5
2000
-1 3 1.43
0 4 1.3
1 1 16 0.8
2 2 32 24.000 16.000 0.500
2001
3 3 71 42.895 16.290 1.453 84.634
4 4 62 55.737 15.945 1.281 93.186
5 1 14 55.427 14.319 0.745 55.797
6 2 45 75.823 14.927 0.509 45.375
2002
7 3 84 80.874 13.939 1.411 137.718
8 4 47 77.374 12.195 1.214 114.760
 9 1 18 69.945 10.233 0.696 59.753
10 2 51 86.163 10.831 0.518 49.404
2003
11 3 86 86.179 9.750 1.370 135.369
12 4 66 83.462 8.503 1.172 111.632
13 1 64.051
14 2 52.003
2004
15 3 149.271
16 4 137.628
ERROR 92.184
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
𝒆_𝒕 𝒆_𝒕^𝟐

6.335 40.126
35.895 1288.427
40.098 1607.816
-6.657 44.322
48.881 2389.326
79.254 6281.267

1941.880

𝒆_𝒕 𝒆_𝒕^𝟐

13.634 185.886
31.186 972.577
41.797 1747.003
0.375 0.140
53.718 2885.613
67.760 4591.398
41.753 1743.306
-1.596 2.548
49.369 2437.249
45.632 2082.324

1664.804