Cole 2009 Logistic Tourism Model

Cole 2009

A LOGISTIC TOURISM MODEL

Resort Cycles, Globalization, and Chaos
Hall, C., and R. Butler
1995 In Search of Common Ground: Reflections on Sustainability, Complexity,
and Process in the Tourism System. Journal of Sustainable Tourism
3(2):99–105.

Hovinen, G.
2002 Revisiting the Destination Life Cycle. Annals of Tourism Research 29(1):209–230.

Papatheodorou, A.
2006 TALC and the Spatial Implications of Competition. In Butler, R., ed., The Tourism Area Life Cycle, Volume
2: conceptual and theoretical issues. Clevedon: Channelview Publications.

Russell, R.
2005 Chaos Theory and its Applications to the Tourism Area Life Cycle Model. In R. Butler, ed., The Tourism
Area Life Cycle, Vol. 2. Conceptual and Theoretical Issues.

Russell, R., and B. Faulkner

1999 Movers and Shakers: Chaos Makers in Tourism Development. Tourism Management 20:411–423.
2004 Entrepreneurship, Chaos and the Tourism Area Life Cycle. Annals of Tourism Research 31(3):556–579.

689-714

689
abstract:
“This paper explores suggestions in the literature that the tourism industry is ‘‘chaotic’’
by transforming a previously developed resort model into discrete logistic equation
(DLE), a widely researched chaos model.”

Tourism Area Life Cycle model (TALC) Butler 1980

“model argued for the existence of an S-shaped lifecycle in the growth of a tourist destination
with identifiable stages—exploration, involvement, development, consolidation, maturity and
stagnation—often followed by decline or rejuvenation”

this is a standard and important model in the industry which needs to be considered and compared

690
“Butler (2009) himself has concluded that a simple model like the TALC and its variants
cannot predict in detail
the future of a specific destination especially those engaged in the global competition that is
tourism today. While the TALC works well for destinations established in earlier days, he
concludes that a unidirectional linear model is unlikely to predict a complex product subject to
rapid change, great competition, and multiple lifecycles for different
forms of tourism and activities. It is suggested even that complexity theory is needed to
comprehend tourism dynamics and that tourism may manifest extreme sensitivity akin to the
Cole 2009 Logistic Tourism Model

‘‘butterfly effect’’ (Hall and Butler 1995; McKercher 1999; Faulkner and Valerio 2000; Hovinen
2002; Russell 2005; Baggio 2008).”
the need for complexity theory and even the model's creator has found some issues with TALC

691
“Chaos in these models differs from that due to complexity alone or randomness. For
instance, as an ‘‘industry of industries,’’ tourism is complicated by its many entities and
interactions, or as an activity critically vulnerable to irregular climatic, political, and market
events (McKercher, 1999; Russell, 2005; Papatheodorou, 2006; Baggio,
2008). Although tourism, as a global phenomenon, is indisputably complicated, and
vulnerable to unscheduled events, the goal here is to understand the extent to which
behaviors observed in resort tourism arise from the configuration of tourism as a global
industry with its specific local manifestations. The focus then is on how the tourism system
itself through structure and behavior, rather than a multitude of components, might generate
logistic chaos.”

it is the behavior and interactions, not the differing components which are of interest in this piece.
Also, these articles cited might be of use as well

707 conclusion
“The core of the LTM is a supply-demand relationship drawing
on observations of tourism development at the global, destination,
and discrete-project scales. The model provides conditions for take-off
for destinations in terms of their tourism-style, geography, accommodation,
and associated public policy. In the development phase, visitor
perceptions towards the agglomeration of explorer, expansion, and
mass tourist accommodation and facilities are manifest. In the mature,
capacity-constrained phase, the LTM reproduces the variety and variability
of tourism destinations, including product succession and resort
decline. In each phase, the LTM suggests how specific details of tourism-
styles, designs, and policies can enhance or undermine a destination’s
success.”