Demanda de energía eléctrica en los últimos años.

A continuación, se presentan los consumos de energía (GW/h) en los últimos tres años.

CONSUMO PMS 2 PMS4 PMS6

PERIO ENERGIA C
DO gw/h
1 62.623 64.000

2 62.978 63.000
3 61.655 62.801 n 2 62.000
4 59.479 62.317 4 61.000
5 60.538 60.567 61.684 6 60.000
6 59.705 60.009 61.163
59.000
7 60.987 60.122 60.344 61.163
58.000
8 59.171 60.346 60.177 60.890
9 59.986 60.079 60.100 60.256 57.000

10 60.707 59.579 59.962 59.978 56.000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1
11 60.649 60.347 60.213 60.182
12 61.955 60.678 60.128 60.201
13 62.223 61.302 60.824 60.576 ACD
14 62.792 62.089 61.384 60.782 PERIODO AÑO
15 61.379 62.508 61.905 61.385 CICLO MESES
16 58.436 62.086 62.087 61.618 ESTACIONALIDAD
17 59.291 59.908 61.208 61.239 TENDIENCIA ASCENDENTE
18 59.889 58.864 60.475 61.013
19 59.812 59.590 59.749 60.668 PROMEDIO
20 59.301 59.851 59.357 60.267 MAXIMO
21 61.611 59.557 59.573 59.685 MIN
22 61.510 60.456 60.153 59.723
23 60.855 61.561 60.559 60.236
24 61.135 61.183 60.819 60.496
25 62.451 60.995 61.278 60.704
26 62.887 61.793 61.488 61.144
27 62.287 62.669 61.832 61.742
28 60.233 62.587 62.190 61.854
29 60.555 61.260 61.965 61.641
30 61.205 60.394 61.491 61.591
31 61.309 60.880 61.070 61.603
32 61.314 61.257 60.826 61.413
33 63.158 61.312 61.096 61.151
34 62.729 62.236 61.747 61.296
35 61.814 62.944 62.128 61.712
36 62.831 62.272 62.254 61.922
62.323 62.633 62.193

PMS 2
 t Dt Pt Et SAEP IEtI DMA2 Et^2 EMC
1 62.6
2 63.0
3 61.7 62.8 -1.1 -1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3
4 59.5 62.3 -2.8 -4.0 2.8 2.0 8.1 4.7
5 60.5 60.6 0.0 -4.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 3.1
6 59.7 60.0 -0.3 -4.3 0.3 1.1 0.1 2.4
7 61.0 60.1 0.9 -3.5 0.9 1.0 0.7 2.0
8 59.2 60.3 -1.2 -4.6 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.9
9 60.0 60.1 -0.1 -4.7 0.1 0.9 0.0 1.7
10 60.7 59.6 1.1 -3.6 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.6
11 60.6 60.3 0.3 -3.3 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.4
12 62.0 60.7 1.3 -2.0 1.3 0.9 1.6 1.5
13 62.2 61.3 0.9 -1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.4
14 62.8 62.1 0.7 -0.4 0.7 0.9 0.5 1.3
15 61.4 62.5 -1.1 -1.5 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.3
16 58.4 62.1 -3.6 -5.2 3.6 1.1 13.3 2.2
17 59.3 59.9 -0.6 -5.8 0.6 1.1 0.4 2.1
18 59.9 58.9 1.0 -4.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 2.0
19 59.8 59.6 0.2 -4.5 0.2 1.0 0.0 1.9
20 59.3 59.9 -0.5 -5.1 0.5 1.0 0.3 1.8
21 61.6 59.6 2.1 -3.0 2.1 1.1 4.2 1.9
22 61.5 60.5 1.1 -2.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.9
23 60.9 61.6 -0.7 -2.7 0.7 1.0 0.5 1.8
24 61.1 61.2 0.0 -2.7 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.7
25 62.5 61.0 1.5 -1.3 1.5 1.0 2.1 1.8
26 62.9 61.8 1.1 -0.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.7
27 62.3 62.7 -0.4 -0.6 0.4 1.0 0.1 1.7
28 60.2 62.6 -2.4 -2.9 2.4 1.0 5.5 1.8
29 60.6 61.3 -0.7 -3.6 0.7 1.0 0.5 1.8
30 61.2 60.4 0.8 -2.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.7
31 61.3 60.9 0.4 -2.4 0.4 1.0 0.2 1.7
32 61.3 61.3 0.1 -2.3 0.1 1.0 0.0 1.6
33 63.2 61.3 1.8 -0.5 1.8 1.0 3.4 1.7
34 62.7 62.2 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 1.6
35 61.8 62.9 -1.1 -1.1 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.6
36 62.8 62.3 0.56 -0.6 0.56 0.975 0.3 1.6
62.3

PRONÓSTICO PMS
64.000
63.000
62.000
61.000
60.000
59.000
58.000
63.000
62.000
61.000
60.000
59.000
58.000
57.000
56.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37

CONSUMO ENERGIA PMS 2 PMS4 PMS6

gw/h
 Se necesita evaluar la sensibilidad de
Media Absoluta (DMA), la Suma Acum
CONSUMO ENERGIA
gw/h E
1. Promedio Móvil Simple – PM
2. Promedio Móvil Ponderado –
0.6.
3. Suavización Ex
62000 gw/h. D

Enviar un archivo con el nombre: PRON

PMS/PMP/SES.
Cada uno de los métodos debe contener
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
1. Tabla de resultados.
2. Gráfica comparativa con los datos d
3. Gráfica comparativa de la desviació
4. Gráfica comparativa de la señal de r
5. Conclusiones frente a:
PT PRIMER PERIODO a) Impacto en la Desviación Media Abs
62000 b) Comportamiento del pronóstico con
ASCENDENTE

61.151
63.158
58.436

PMS4
EAP/Dt DEPMA SR2 t Dt Pt Et SAEP IEtI DMA4
1 62.6
2 63.0
1.9% 1.9% -1.0 3 61.7
4.8% 3.3% -2.0 4 59.5
0.0% 2.2% -3.0 5 60.5 61.7 -1.1 -1.1 1.1 1.1
0.5% 1.8% -4.0 6 59.7 61.2 -1.5 -2.6 1.5 1.3
1.4% 1.7% -3.3 7 61.0 60.3 0.6 -2.0 0.6 1.1
2.0% 1.8% -4.4 8 59.2 60.2 -1.0 -3.0 1.0 1.1
0.2% 1.5% -5.1 9 60.0 60.1 -0.1 -3.1 0.1 0.9
1.9% 1.6% -3.8 10 60.7 60.0 0.7 -2.3 0.7 0.9
0.5% 1.5% -3.8 11 60.6 60.2 0.4 -1.9 0.4 0.8
2.1% 1.5% -2.2 12 62.0 60.1 1.8 -0.1 1.8 0.9
1.5% 1.5% -1.2 13 62.2 60.8 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.0
1.1% 1.5% -0.4 14 62.8 61.4 1.4 2.7 1.4 1.0
1.8% 1.5% -1.7 15 61.4 61.9 -0.5 2.2 0.5 1.0
6.2% 1.8% -4.6 16 58.4 62.1 -3.7 -1.4 3.7 1.2
1.0% 1.8% -5.4 17 59.3 61.2 -1.9 -3.4 1.9 1.3
1.7% 1.8% -4.4 18 59.9 60.5 -0.6 -3.9 0.6 1.2
0.4% 1.7% -4.4 19 59.8 59.7 0.1 -3.9 0.1 1.1
0.9% 1.7% -5.1 20 59.3 59.4 -0.1 -3.9 0.1 1.1
3.3% 1.7% -2.9 21 61.6 59.6 2.0 -1.9 2.0 1.1
1.7% 1.7% -1.9 22 61.5 60.2 1.4 -0.5 1.4 1.1
1.2% 1.7% -2.6 23 60.9 60.6 0.3 -0.2 0.3 1.1
0.1% 1.6% -2.7 24 61.1 60.8 0.3 0.1 0.3 1.0
2.3% 1.7% -1.3 25 62.5 61.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1
1.7% 1.7% -0.2 26 62.9 61.5 1.4 2.6 1.4 1.1
0.6% 1.6% -0.6 27 62.3 61.8 0.5 3.1 0.5 1.0
3.9% 1.7% -2.8 28 60.2 62.2 -2.0 1.1 2.0 1.1
1.2% 1.7% -3.5 29 60.6 62.0 -1.4 -0.3 1.4 1.1
1.3% 1.7% -2.7 30 61.2 61.5 -0.3 -0.6 0.3 1.1
0.7% 1.7% -2.4 31 61.3 61.1 0.2 -0.3 0.2 1.0
0.1% 1.6% -2.4 32 61.3 60.8 0.5 0.2 0.5 1.0
2.9% 1.6% -0.5 33 63.2 61.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.1
0.8% 1.6% 0.0 34 62.7 61.7 1.0 3.2 1.0 1.0
1.8% 1.6% -1.1 35 61.8 62.1 -0.3 2.9 0.3 1.0
0.9% 1.6% -0.6 36 62.831 62.3 0.58 3.5 0.58 1.010
62.6

DMA
2.5

1.5

1
 2

1.5

0.5

33 34 35 36 37
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

DMA2 DMA4 DMA6

AL CAMBIAR EL TAMAÑO DE MUESTRA SE PUEDE OBSERVAR EN LA GRAFICA QUE A

MENOR TAMAÑO DE MUESTRA MENOR DMA

Y A MAYOR TAMAÑO DE MUESTRA MAYOR DMA

 Fuente: Empresa Eléctrica SAS.
aluar la sensibilidad de método de pronóstico, para ello se analizará el impacto en la Desviación
ta (DMA), la Suma Acumulada del Error de Pronóstico (SAEP) y el comportamiento del modelo
(Señal de Rastreo - SR).
Elaborar los siguientes pronósticos:
io Móvil Simple – PMS – pronosticar modificando el tamaño de la muestra, así: n = 2, 4 y 6.
o Móvil Ponderado – PMP – evaluar con las siguientes ponderaciones: a) 0.1, 0.3 y
0.6. b) 0.2, 0.3 y 0.5. y c) 0.6, 0.3 y 0.1
3. Suavización Exponencial Simple – SES - con base en el pronóstico de
62000 gw/h. Determine el pronóstico para alfa = 0.1, 0.5 y 0.8.

o con el nombre: PRONOSTICOS, el cual debe constar de tres hojas:

métodos debe contener:

ultados.
parativa con los datos de demanda y pronósticos.
parativa de la desviación media absoluta.
parativa de la señal de rastreo
s frente a:
a Desviación Media Absoluta.
ento del pronóstico con base en la señal de rastreo.

PMS4 PMS
Et^2 EMC EAP/Dt DEPMA SR4 t Dt Pt Et SAEP
1 62.6
2 63.0
3 61.7
4 59.5
1.3 1.3 1.9% 1.9% -1.0 5 60.5
2.1 1.7 2.4% 2.2% -2.0 6 59.7
0.4 1.3 1.1% 1.8% -1.8 7 61.0 61.2 -0.2 -0.18
1.0 1.2 1.7% 1.8% -2.8 8 59.2 60.9 -1.7 -1.90
0.0 1.0 0.2% 1.5% -3.5 9 60.0 60.3 -0.3 -2.17
0.6 0.9 1.2% 1.4% -2.7 10 60.7 60.0 0.7 -1.44
0.2 0.8 0.7% 1.3% -2.4 11 60.6 60.2 0.5 -0.97
3.3 1.1 2.9% 1.5% -0.1 12 62.0 60.2 1.8 0.78
2.0 1.2 2.2% 1.6% 1.4 13 62.2 60.6 1.6 2.43
2.0 1.3 2.2% 1.7% 2.7 14 62.8 60.8 2.0 4.44
0.3 1.2 0.9% 1.6% 2.3 15 61.4 61.4 0.0 4.44
13.3 2.2 6.2% 2.0% -1.2 16 58.4 61.6 -3.2 1.25
3.7 2.3 3.2% 2.1% -2.7 17 59.3 61.2 -1.9 -0.69
0.3 2.2 1.0% 2.0% -3.3 18 59.9 61.0 -1.1 -1.82
0.0 2.0 0.1% 1.9% -3.4 19 59.8 60.7 -0.9 -2.67
0.0 1.9 0.1% 1.8% -3.7 20 59.3 60.3 -1.0 -3.64
4.2 2.0 3.3% 1.9% -1.7 21 61.6 59.7 1.9 -1.71
1.8 2.0 2.2% 1.9% -0.5 22 61.5 59.7 1.8 0.07
0.1 1.9 0.5% 1.8% -0.2 23 60.9 60.2 0.6 0.69
0.1 1.8 0.5% 1.7% 0.1 24 61.1 60.5 0.6 1.33
1.4 1.8 1.9% 1.7% 1.2 25 62.5 60.7 1.7 3.08
2.0 1.8 2.2% 1.8% 2.5 26 62.9 61.1 1.7 4.82
0.2 1.8 0.7% 1.7% 3.0 27 62.3 61.7 0.5 5.37
3.8 1.8 3.2% 1.8% 1.1 28 60.2 61.9 -1.6 3.75
2.0 1.8 2.3% 1.8% -0.2 29 60.6 61.6 -1.1 2.66
0.1 1.8 0.5% 1.8% -0.5 30 61.2 61.6 -0.4 2.27
0.1 1.7 0.4% 1.7% -0.3 31 61.3 61.6 -0.3 1.98
0.2 1.7 0.8% 1.7% 0.2 32 61.3 61.4 -0.1 1.88
4.3 1.7 3.3% 1.7% 2.1 33 63.2 61.2 2.0 3.89
1.0 1.7 1.6% 1.7% 3.1 34 62.7 61.3 1.4 5.32
0.1 1.7 0.5% 1.7% 2.8 35 61.8 61.7 0.1 5.42
0.3 1.6 0.9% 1.7% 3.4 36 62.8 61.9 0.9 6.33
62.2

SR
8

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2
-2

-4
 4

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2
-2

-4

-6

7 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 SR2 SR4 SR6

EL COMPORTAMIENTO DEL MODELO FRENTE AL PRONOSTICO CON UN MENOR

LA GRAFICA QUE A QUE SE SALE DE LOS LIMITES DE CONTROL Y PREVALECE HACIA ABAJO
PRONOSTICO ESTA SIENDO MAYOR QUE LA DEMANDA REAL. PERO EN E
CORRECCCION Y VUELVE EL PROOSTICO A ESTAR DENTRO DE LOS LIMITE
SUCEDER EN EL PERIODO 16 AL 20. EN CUANTO AL MAYOR TAMAÑO DE MUE
POSITIVO, LO QUE QUIERE DECIR QUE ESA QUEDANDO CORTO Y SE DEBE PRE
DEL LIMITE DE CONTROL, SE INTENTA CONTROLAR, VUELVE A ESTAR DENTRO
FINALMENTE SUBE DE FORMA EXPONENCIAL. Y POR ULTIMO EL TAMAÑO D
TIEMPO DENTRO DE LOS LIMITES DE CONTROL, PERO SE OBSERVA QUE AL FIN
POSITIVAMENTE.
PMS6
 IEtI DMA6 Et^2 EMC EAP/Dt DEPMA SR6

0.2 0.2 0.03 0.03 0.3% 0.3% -1.0

1.7 0.9 2.96 1.49 2.9% 1.6% -2.0
0.3 0.7 0.07 1.02 0.4% 1.2% -3.0
0.7 0.7 0.53 0.90 1.2% 1.2% -2.0
0.5 0.7 0.22 0.76 0.8% 1.1% -1.4
1.8 0.9 3.08 1.15 2.8% 1.4% 0.9
1.6 1.0 2.71 1.37 2.6% 1.6% 2.5
2.0 1.1 4.04 1.71 3.2% 1.8% 4.1
0.0 1.0 0.00 1.52 0.0% 1.6% 4.5
3.2 1.2 10.12 2.38 5.4% 2.0% 1.0
1.9 1.3 3.79 2.51 3.3% 2.1% -0.5
1.1 1.3 1.26 2.40 1.9% 2.1% -1.5
0.9 1.2 0.73 2.27 1.4% 2.0% -2.2
1.0 1.2 0.93 2.18 1.6% 2.0% -3.0
1.9 1.3 3.71 2.28 3.1% 2.1% -1.4
1.8 1.3 3.19 2.34 2.9% 2.1% 0.1
0.6 1.2 0.38 2.22 1.0% 2.1% 0.6
0.6 1.2 0.41 2.12 1.0% 2.0% 1.1
1.7 1.2 3.05 2.17 2.8% 2.0% 2.5
1.7 1.3 3.04 2.21 2.8% 2.1% 3.8
0.5 1.2 0.30 2.12 0.9% 2.0% 4.4
1.6 1.2 2.63 2.15 2.7% 2.1% 3.0
1.1 1.2 1.18 2.10 1.8% 2.0% 2.1
0.4 1.2 0.15 2.02 0.6% 2.0% 1.9
0.3 1.2 0.09 1.94 0.5% 1.9% 1.7
0.1 1.1 0.01 1.87 0.2% 1.9% 1.7
2.0 1.2 4.03 1.95 3.2% 1.9% 3.3
1.4 1.2 2.05 1.95 2.3% 1.9% 4.5
0.1 1.1 0.01 1.89 0.2% 1.9% 4.8
0.91 1.13 0.83 1.85 1.4% 1.8% 5.6

SR

3 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
 3 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

SR2 SR4 SR6

AL PRONOSTICO CON UN MENOR TAMAÑO DE MUESTRA DA CUENTA

OL Y PREVALECE HACIA ABAJO LO QUE QUIERE DECIR QUE EL
LA DEMANDA REAL. PERO EN EL PERIODO 9 SE HACE ALGUNA
A ESTAR DENTRO DE LOS LIMITES DE CONTROL. ESTO VUELVE A
O AL MAYOR TAMAÑO DE MUESTRA (6) EL SESGO ES MAYOR PARTE
EDANDO CORTO Y SE DEBE PRESTAR ATENCION; TAMBIEN SE SALE
OLAR, VUELVE A ESTAR DENTRO DE LOS LIMITES DE CONTROL PERO
. Y POR ULTIMO EL TAMAÑO DE MUESTRA 4 PERMANECE TODO EL
L, PERO SE OBSERVA QUE AL FINAL EL PRONOSTICO VA CRECIENDO
POSITIVAMENTE.
 CONSU PMPA PMPB PMPC
PERI MO
ODO ENERGI

1 A
62.623
2 62.978 n 3
3 61.655 FP
4 59.479 62.149 62.246 62.633 A B C
5 60.538 60.482 60.832 62.231 1 0.1 0.2 0.6
6 59.705 60.332 60.444 60.891 2 0.3 0.3 0.3
7 60.987 59.932 59.910 59.819 3 0.6 0.5 0.1
8 59.171 60.558 60.513 60.333 1 1 1
9 59.986 59.769 59.823 60.036
10 60.707 59.842 59.942 60.342
11 60.649 60.337 60.184 59.569
12 61.955 60.600 60.534 60.269
13 62.223 61.438 61.314 60.814
14 62.792 61.985 61.828 61.198
15 61.379 62.538 62.454 62.119
16 58.436 61.887 61.972 62.309
17 59.291 59.755 60.190 61.933
18 59.889 59.243 59.452 60.287
19 59.812 59.564 59.419 58.838
20 59.301 59.783 59.731 59.523
59.513 59.572 59.807
61.611
21
22 61.510 60.738 60.558 59.839
23 60.855 61.319 61.099 60.215
24 61.127 61.203 61.505
61.135

25 62.451 61.089 61.126 61.276

62.887 61.897 61.737 61.099
26
27 62.287 62.581 62.406 61.705
28 60.233 62.483 62.500 62.565
29 60.555 61.115 61.380 62.442
30 61.205 60.632 60.805 61.498
31 61.309 60.913 60.816 60.427
61.202 61.127 60.825
61.314
32
33 63.158 61.302 61.291 61.247
34 62.729 62.420 62.235 61.495
35 61.814 62.716 62.575 62.009
36 62.831 62.223 62.357 62.895
62.516 62.506 62.465

PMPAA
t Dt Pt Et SAEP IEtI DMAA Et^2 EMC EAP/Dt DEPMA
1 62.6
2 63.0
3 61.7
 4 59.5 62.1 -2.7 -2.7 2.7 2.7 7.1 7.1 4.5% 4.5%
5 60.5 60.5 0.1 -2.6 0.1 1.4 0.0 3.6 0.1% 2.3%
6 59.7 60.3 -0.6 -3.2 0.6 1.1 0.4 2.5 1.1% 1.9%
7 61.0 59.9 1.1 -2.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.2 1.7% 1.8%
8 59.2 60.6 -1.4 -3.6 1.4 1.2 1.9 2.1 2.3% 1.9%
9 60.0 59.8 0.2 -3.4 0.2 1.0 0.0 1.8 0.4% 1.7%
10 60.7 59.8 0.9 -2.5 0.9 1.0 0.7 1.6 1.4% 1.6%
11 60.6 60.3 0.3 -2.2 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.4 0.5% 1.5%
12 62.0 60.6 1.4 -0.8 1.4 0.9 1.8 1.5 2.2% 1.6%
13 62.2 61.4 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.4 1.3% 1.5%
14 62.8 62.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.3 1.3% 1.5%
15 61.4 62.5 -1.2 -0.4 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.9% 1.6%
16 58.4 61.9 -3.5 -3.8 3.5 1.1 11.9 2.1 5.9% 1.9%
17 59.3 59.8 -0.5 -4.3 0.5 1.1 0.2 2.0 0.8% 1.8%
18 59.9 59.2 0.6 -3.7 0.6 1.1 0.4 1.9 1.1% 1.8%
19 59.8 59.6 0.2 -3.4 0.2 1.0 0.1 1.8 0.4% 1.7%
20 59.3 59.8 -0.5 -3.9 0.5 1.0 0.2 1.7 0.8% 1.6%
21 61.6 59.5 2.1 -1.8 2.1 1.0 4.4 1.8 3.4% 1.7%
22 61.5 60.7 0.8 -1.0 0.8 1.0 0.6 1.8 1.3% 1.7%
23 60.9 61.3 -0.5 -1.5 0.5 1.0 0.2 1.7 0.8% 1.7%
24 61.1 61.1 0.0 -1.5 0.0 0.9 0.0 1.6 0.0% 1.6%
25 62.5 61.1 1.4 -0.1 1.4 1.0 1.9 1.6 2.2% 1.6%
26 62.9 61.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.6% 1.6%
27 62.3 62.6 -0.3 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.5 0.5% 1.6%
28 60.2 62.5 -2.3 -1.7 2.3 1.0 5.1 1.7 3.7% 1.6%
29 60.6 61.1 -0.6 -2.2 0.6 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.9% 1.6%
30 61.2 60.6 0.6 -1.7 0.6 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.9% 1.6%
31 61.3 60.9 0.4 -1.3 0.4 0.9 0.2 1.5 0.6% 1.6%
32 61.3 61.2 0.1 -1.2 0.1 0.9 0.0 1.5 0.2% 1.5%
33 63.2 61.3 1.9 0.7 1.9 0.9 3.4 1.5 2.9% 1.6%
34 62.7 62.4 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.5 0.5% 1.5%
35 61.8 62.7 -0.9 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.5 1.5% 1.5%
36 62.8 62.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.91 0.4 1.4 1.0% 1.5%
62.5

PRÓNOSTICO PMP
64.000 3.5

63.000 3
62.000
2.5
61.000
2
60.000

59.000 1.5

58.000
1
57.000
0.5
56.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637
61.000
2
60.000

59.000 1.5

58.000
1
57.000
0.5
56.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637
0
CONSUMO ENERGIA PMPA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
gw/h
PMPB PMPC

AL CAMBIAR EL VALOR DE PON

 PMPB
SRA t Dt Pt Et SAEP IEtI DMAB Et^2 EMC EAP/Dt DEPMA SRB
1 62.6
2 63.0
3 61.7
-1.0 4 59.5 62.2 -2.8 -2.8 2.8 2.8 7.7 7.7 4.7% 4.7% -1.0
-1.9 5 60.5 60.8 -0.3 -3.1 0.3 1.5 0.1 3.9 0.5% 2.6% -2.0
-2.9 6 59.7 60.4 -0.7 -3.8 0.7 1.3 0.5 2.8 1.2% 2.1% -3.0
-2.0 7 61.0 59.9 1.1 -2.7 1.1 1.2 1.2 2.4 1.8% 2.0% -2.2
-3.1 8 59.2 60.5 -1.3 -4.1 1.3 1.2 1.8 2.2 2.3% 2.1% -3.3
-3.3 9 60.0 59.8 0.2 -3.9 0.2 1.1 0.0 1.9 0.3% 1.8% -3.7
-2.5 10 60.7 59.9 0.8 -3.1 0.8 1.0 0.6 1.7 1.3% 1.7% -3.1
-2.4 11 60.6 60.2 0.5 -2.7 0.5 1.0 0.2 1.5 0.8% 1.6% -2.8
-0.9 12 62.0 60.5 1.4 -1.2 1.4 1.0 2.0 1.6 2.3% 1.7% -1.2
0.0 13 62.2 61.3 0.9 -0.3 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.5% 1.6% -0.3
0.8 14 62.8 61.8 1.0 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.5% 1.6% 0.6
-0.4 15 61.4 62.5 -1.1 -0.4 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.8% 1.6% -0.4
-3.4 16 58.4 62.0 -3.5 -4.0 3.5 1.2 12.5 2.3 6.1% 2.0% -3.3
-4.0 17 59.3 60.2 -0.9 -4.9 0.9 1.2 0.8 2.2 1.5% 2.0% -4.2
-3.5 18 59.9 59.5 0.4 -4.4 0.4 1.1 0.2 2.0 0.7% 1.9% -4.0
-3.4 19 59.8 59.4 0.4 -4.1 0.4 1.1 0.2 1.9 0.7% 1.8% -3.8
-4.0 20 59.3 59.7 -0.4 -4.5 0.4 1.0 0.2 1.8 0.7% 1.7% -4.3
-1.7 21 61.6 59.6 2.0 -2.4 2.0 1.1 4.2 1.9 3.3% 1.8% -2.2
-1.0 22 61.5 60.6 1.0 -1.5 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.9 1.5% 1.8% -1.4
-1.5 23 60.9 61.1 -0.2 -1.7 0.2 1.0 0.1 1.8 0.4% 1.7% -1.7
-1.6 24 61.1 61.2 -0.1 -1.8 0.1 1.0 0.005 1.7 0.1% 1.7% -1.8
-0.1 25 62.5 61.1 1.3 -0.5 1.3 1.0 1.8 1.7 2.1% 1.7% -0.5
0.9 26 62.9 61.7 1.2 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.8% 1.7% 0.7
0.6 27 62.3 62.4 -0.1 0.6 0.1 1.0 0.01 1.6 0.2% 1.6% 0.6
-1.7 28 60.2 62.5 -2.3 -1.7 2.3 1.0 5.1 1.8 3.8% 1.7% -1.7
-2.3 29 60.6 61.4 -0.8 -2.5 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.7 1.4% 1.7% -2.5
-1.7 30 61.2 60.8 0.4 -2.1 0.4 1.0 0.2 1.7 0.7% 1.7% -2.1
-1.3 31 61.3 60.8 0.5 -1.6 0.5 1.0 0.2 1.6 0.8% 1.6% -1.7
-1.3 32 61.3 61.1 0.2 -1.5 0.2 1.0 0.03 1.6 0.3% 1.6% -1.5
0.7 33 63.2 61.3 1.9 0.4 1.9 1.0 3.5 1.6 3.0% 1.6% 0.4
1.1 34 62.7 62.2 0.5 0.9 0.5 1.0 0.2 1.6 0.8% 1.6% 0.9
0.1 35 61.8 62.6 -0.8 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.6 1.6 1.2% 1.6% 0.1
0.8 36 62.8 62.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.95 0.2 1.5 0.8% 1.6% 0.6
62.5

DMA
2

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-1

-2

-3

-4

-5
 -1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

DMAA DMAB DMAC

EN EL PRONOSTICO DE LA P
AMBIAR EL VALOR DE PONDERACION SE PUEDE OBSERVAR QUE LA PONDERACION A HACIA ABAJO LO QUE INDICA
TIENE MENOR DMA PRONOSTICO BY C SE SALEN
 PMPC
t Dt Pt Et SAEP IEtI DMAC Et^2 EMC EAP/Dt DEPMA SRC
1 62.6
2 63.0
3 61.7
 4 59.5 62.6 -3.2 -3.2 3.2 3.2 9.9 9.9 5.3% 5.3% -1.0
5 60.5 62.2 -1.7 -4.8 1.7 2.4 2.9 6.4 2.8% 4.0% -2.0
6 59.7 60.9 -1.2 -6.0 1.2 2.0 1.4 4.7 2.0% 3.4% -3.0
7 61.0 59.8 1.2 -4.9 1.2 1.8 1.4 3.9 1.9% 3.0% -2.7
8 59.2 60.3 -1.2 -6.0 1.2 1.7 1.4 3.4 2.0% 2.8% -3.6
9 60.0 60.0 -0.1 -6.1 0.1 1.4 0.0 2.8 0.1% 2.3% -4.3
10 60.7 60.3 0.4 -5.7 0.4 1.3 0.1 2.4 0.6% 2.1% -4.6
11 60.6 59.6 1.1 -4.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 2.3 1.8% 2.1% -3.8
12 62.0 60.3 1.7 -2.9 1.7 1.3 2.8 2.3 2.7% 2.1% -2.3
13 62.2 60.8 1.4 -1.5 1.4 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.3% 2.1% -1.2
14 62.8 61.2 1.6 0.1 1.6 1.3 2.5 2.3 2.5% 2.2% 0.0
15 61.4 62.1 -0.7 -0.7 0.7 1.3 0.5 2.2 1.2% 2.1% -0.5
16 58.4 62.3 -3.9 -4.6 3.9 1.5 15.0 3.2 6.6% 2.4% -3.1
17 59.3 61.9 -2.6 -7.2 2.6 1.6 7.0 3.4 4.5% 2.6% -4.6
18 59.9 60.3 -0.4 -7.6 0.4 1.5 0.2 3.2 0.7% 2.5% -5.1
19 59.8 58.8 1.0 -6.6 1.0 1.4 0.9 3.1 1.6% 2.4% -4.6
20 59.3 59.5 -0.2 -6.8 0.2 1.4 0.0 2.9 0.4% 2.3% -5.0
21 61.6 59.8 1.8 -5.0 1.8 1.4 3.3 2.9 2.9% 2.3% -3.6
22 61.5 59.8 1.7 -3.4 1.7 1.4 2.8 2.9 2.7% 2.3% -2.4
23 60.9 60.2 0.6 -2.7 0.6 1.4 0.4 2.8 1.1% 2.3% -2.0
24 61.1 61.5 -0.4 -3.1 0.4 1.3 0.137 2.7 0.6% 2.2% -2.3
25 62.5 61.3 1.2 -1.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.6 1.9% 2.2% -1.5
26 62.9 61.1 1.8 -0.1 1.8 1.3 3.2 2.6 2.8% 2.2% -0.1
27 62.3 61.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.3 0.34 2.5 0.9% 2.2% 0.3
28 60.2 62.6 -2.3 -1.9 2.3 1.4 5.4 2.6 3.9% 2.2% -1.4
29 60.6 62.4 -1.9 -3.8 1.9 1.4 3.6 2.7 3.1% 2.3% -2.8
30 61.2 61.5 -0.3 -4.1 0.3 1.3 0.1 2.6 0.5% 2.2% -3.1
31 61.3 60.4 0.9 -3.2 0.9 1.3 0.8 2.5 1.4% 2.2% -2.4
32 61.3 60.8 0.5 -2.7 0.5 1.3 0.24 2.4 0.8% 2.1% -2.1
33 63.2 61.2 1.9 -0.8 1.9 1.3 3.7 2.5 3.0% 2.2% -0.6
34 62.7 61.5 1.2 0.5 1.2 1.3 1.5 2.5 2.0% 2.1% 0.3
35 61.8 62.0 -0.2 0.3 0.2 1.3 0.0 2.4 0.3% 2.1% 0.2
36 62.8 62.9 -0.1 0.2 0.1 1.23 0.0 2.3 0.1% 2.0% 0.2
62.5

SR
2

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
1

5
1

SRA SRB SRC

EN EL PRONOSTICO DE LA PONDERACION A, B Y C SE OBSERVA QUE PREVALECEN MAYORMENTE

ACIA ABAJO LO QUE INDICA QUE EL PRONOSTICO ESTA SIENDO MAYOR QUE LA DEMANDA REAL, EL
PRONOSTICO BY C SE SALEN DE LOS LIMITES DE CONTROL SE INTENTA CONTROLAR Y VUELVE A
ESTAR DENTRO DE LOS LIMITES.
 CONSUMO
PERIOD ENERGIA
SESα1 SESα2 SESα3
O gw/h
1 62.623 62.000 62.000 62.000
2 62.978 62.062 62.312 62.498
3 61.655 62.154 62.645 62.882

4 59.479 62.104 62.150 61.900

5 60.538 61.841 60.814 59.963

6 59.705 61.711 60.676 60.423

7 60.987 61.511 60.191 59.849
8 59.171 61.458 60.589 60.759
9 59.986 61.229 59.880 59.489
10 60.707 61.105 59.933 59.887
11 60.649 61.065 60.320 60.543
12 61.955 61.024 60.484 60.628
13 62.223 61.117 61.220 61.690
14 62.792 61.227 61.721 62.116
15 61.379 61.384 62.257 62.657
16 58.436 61.383 61.818 61.635
17 59.291 61.089 60.127 59.076
18 59.889 60.909 59.709 59.248
19 59.812 60.807 59.799 59.761
20 59.301 60.707 59.805 59.802
21 61.611 60.567 59.553 59.401
22 61.510 60.671 60.582 61.169
23 60.855 60.755 61.046 61.442
24 61.135 60.765 60.951 60.972
25 62.451 60.802 61.043 61.102
26 62.887 60.967 61.747 62.181
27 62.287 61.159 62.317 62.746
28 60.233 61.272 62.302 62.379
29 60.555 61.168 61.267 60.662
30 61.205 61.107 60.911 60.576
31 61.309 61.116 61.058 61.079
32 61.314 61.136 61.184 61.263
33 63.158 61.154 61.249 61.304
34 62.729 61.354 62.203 62.787
35 61.814 61.491 62.466 62.741
36 62.831 61.524 62.140 61.999
61.654 62.486 62.665

SESα1
t Dt Pt Et SAEP IEtI DMAα1 Et^2 EMC
1 62.623 62.000 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4
2 62.978 62.062 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6
3 61.655 62.154 -0.5 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.5
4 59.479 62.104 -2.6 -1.6 2.6 1.2 6.9 2.1
5 60.538 61.841 -1.3 -2.9 1.3 1.2 1.7 2.0
6 59.705 61.711 -2.0 -4.9 2.0 1.3 4.0 2.3
7 60.987 61.511 -0.5 -5.4 0.5 1.2 0.3 2.1
8 59.171 61.458 -2.3 -7.7 2.3 1.3 5.2 2.4
9 59.986 61.229 -1.2 -8.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 2.3
10 60.707 61.105 -0.4 -9.3 0.4 1.2 0.2 2.1
11 60.649 61.065 -0.4 -9.8 0.4 1.2 0.2 2.0
12 61.955 61.024 0.9 -8.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.9
13 62.223 61.117 1.1 -7.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.8
14 62.792 61.227 1.6 -6.2 1.6 1.2 2.4 1.9
15 61.379 61.384 0.0 -6.2 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.7
16 58.436 61.383 -2.9 -9.1 2.9 1.2 8.7 2.2
17 59.291 61.089 -1.8 -10.9 1.8 1.2 3.2 2.2
18 59.889 60.909 -1.0 -11.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 2.2
19 59.812 60.807 -1.0 -12.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 2.1
20 59.301 60.707 -1.4 -14.3 1.4 1.2 2.0 2.1
21 61.611 60.567 1.0 -13.3 1.0 1.2 1.1 2.0
22 61.510 60.671 0.8 -12.4 0.8 1.2 0.7 2.0
23 60.855 60.755 0.1 -12.3 0.1 1.2 0.0 1.9
24 61.135 60.765 0.4 -12.0 0.4 1.1 0.1 1.8
25 62.451 60.802 1.6 -10.3 1.6 1.1 2.7 1.9
26 62.887 60.967 1.9 -8.4 1.9 1.2 3.7 1.9
27 62.287 61.159 1.1 -7.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.9
28 60.233 61.272 -1.0 -8.3 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.9
29 60.555 61.168 -0.6 -8.9 0.6 1.1 0.4 1.8
30 61.205 61.107 0.1 -8.8 0.1 1.1 0.0 1.8
31 61.309 61.116 0.2 -8.6 0.2 1.1 0.0 1.7
32 61.314 61.136 0.2 -8.5 0.2 1.1 0.0 1.7
33 63.158 61.154 2.0 -6.5 2.0 1.1 4.0 1.7
34 62.729 61.354 1.4 -5.1 1.4 1.1 1.9 1.7
35 61.814 61.491 0.3 -4.8 0.3 1.1 0.1 1.7
36 62.831 61.524 1.3 -3.5 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.7
61.654

PRÓNOSTICO SES
64.000

63.000

62.000

61.000

60.000

59.000

58.000
63.000

62.000

61.000

60.000

59.000

58.000

57.000

56.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37

CONSUMO ENERGIA SESα1 SESα2 SESα3

gw/h
Pt = Pt-1 + (α * Dt-1 - Pt-1))

α1 0.1

α2 0.5

α3 0.8

SESα2
EAP/Dt DEPMA SRα1 t Dt Pt Et SAEP IEtI DMAα2 Et^2
1.0% 1.0% 1.00 1 62.623 62.000 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4
1.5% 1.2% 2.00 2 62.978 62.312 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.4
0.8% 1.1% 1.53 3 61.655 62.645 -1.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 1.0
4.4% 1.9% -1.36 4 59.479 62.150 -2.7 -2.4 2.7 1.2 7.1
2.2% 2.0% -2.42 5 60.538 60.814 -0.3 -2.6 0.3 1.0 0.1
3.4% 2.2% -3.68 6 59.705 60.676 -1.0 -3.6 1.0 1.0 0.9
0.9% 2.0% -4.46 7 60.987 60.191 0.8 -2.8 0.8 1.0 0.6
3.9% 2.2% -5.72 8 59.171 60.589 -1.4 -4.2 1.4 1.1 2.0
2.1% 2.2% -6.70 9 59.986 59.880 0.1 -4.1 0.1 0.9 0.0
0.7% 2.1% -7.52 10 60.707 59.933 0.8 -3.4 0.8 0.9 0.6
0.7% 1.9% -8.36 11 60.649 60.320 0.3 -3.0 0.3 0.9 0.1
1.5% 1.9% -7.70 12 61.955 60.484 1.5 -1.6 1.5 0.9 2.2
1.8% 1.9% -6.75 13 62.223 61.220 1.0 -0.6 1.0 0.9 1.0
2.5% 1.9% -5.25 14 62.792 61.721 1.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 1.1
0.0% 1.8% -5.62 15 61.379 62.257 -0.9 -0.4 0.9 0.9 0.8
5.0% 2.0% -7.52 16 58.436 61.818 -3.4 -3.7 3.4 1.1 11.4
3.0% 2.1% -8.75 17 59.291 60.127 -0.8 -4.6 0.8 1.1 0.7
1.7% 2.0% -9.67 18 59.889 59.709 0.2 -4.4 0.2 1.0 0.0
1.7% 2.0% -10.58 19 59.812 59.799 0.0 -4.4 0.0 1.0 0.0
2.4% 2.0% -11.65 20 59.301 59.805 -0.5 -4.9 0.5 0.9 0.3
1.7% 2.0% -10.88 21 61.611 59.553 2.1 -2.8 2.1 1.0 4.2
1.4% 2.0% -10.34 22 61.510 60.582 0.9 -1.9 0.9 1.0 0.9
0.2% 1.9% -10.68 23 60.855 61.046 -0.2 -2.1 0.2 1.0 0.0
0.6% 1.9% -10.66 24 61.135 60.951 0.2 -1.9 0.2 0.9 0.0
2.6% 1.9% -9.03 25 62.451 61.043 1.4 -0.5 1.4 0.9 2.0
3.1% 1.9% -7.16 26 62.887 61.747 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.3
1.8% 1.9% -6.21 27 62.287 62.317 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.9 0.0
1.7% 1.9% -7.12 28 60.233 62.302 -2.1 -1.5 2.1 1.0 4.3
1.0% 1.9% -7.78 29 60.555 61.267 -0.7 -2.2 0.7 1.0 0.5
0.2% 1.8% -7.93 30 61.205 60.911 0.3 -1.9 0.3 0.9 0.1
0.3% 1.8% -7.97 31 61.309 61.058 0.3 -1.6 0.3 0.9 0.1
0.3% 1.7% -8.02 32 61.314 61.184 0.1 -1.5 0.1 0.9 0.0
3.2% 1.8% -5.96 33 63.158 61.249 1.9 0.4 1.9 0.9 3.6
2.2% 1.8% -4.65 34 62.729 62.203 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.3
0.5% 1.8% -4.45 35 61.814 62.466 -0.7 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.4
2.1% 1.8% -3.21 36 62.831 62.140 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.5
62.486

DMA
1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6
 1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2
1 32 33 34 35 36 37
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

DMAα1 DMAα2 DMAα3

AL ACAMBIAR LOS VALORES DE α SE PUEDE OBSERVAR QUE A MAYOR α MENOR DMA

Y A MENOR α SE OBTIENE UN MAYER DMA
SESα2 SESα3
EMC EAP/Dt DEPMA SRα2 t Dt Pt Et SAEP IEtI DMAα3
0.4 1.0% 1.0% 1.00 1 62.623 62.000 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
0.4 1.1% 1.0% 2.00 2 62.978 62.498 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.6
0.6 1.6% 1.2% 0.39 3 61.655 62.882 -1.2 -0.1 1.2 0.8
2.2 4.5% 2.0% -1.92 4 59.479 61.900 -2.4 -2.5 2.4 1.2
1.8 0.5% 1.7% -2.53 5 60.538 59.963 0.6 -2.0 0.6 1.1
1.7 1.6% 1.7% -3.50 6 59.705 60.423 -0.7 -2.7 0.7 1.0
1.5 1.3% 1.6% -2.82 7 60.987 59.849 1.1 -1.6 1.1 1.0
1.6 2.4% 1.7% -4.03 8 59.171 60.759 -1.6 -3.1 1.6 1.1
1.4 0.2% 1.6% -4.37 9 59.986 59.489 0.5 -2.6 0.5 1.0
1.3 1.3% 1.5% -3.62 10 60.707 59.887 0.8 -1.8 0.8 1.0
1.2 0.5% 1.4% -3.47 11 60.649 60.543 0.1 -1.7 0.1 0.9
1.3 2.4% 1.5% -1.69 12 61.955 60.628 1.3 -0.4 1.3 1.0
1.3 1.6% 1.5% -0.60 13 62.223 61.690 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.9
1.3 1.7% 1.5% 0.55 14 62.792 62.116 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9
1.2 1.4% 1.5% -0.39 15 61.379 62.657 -1.3 -0.5 1.3 0.9
1.9 5.8% 1.8% -3.44 16 58.436 61.635 -3.2 -3.7 3.2 1.1
1.8 1.4% 1.8% -4.27 17 59.291 59.076 0.2 -3.4 0.2 1.0
1.7 0.3% 1.7% -4.30 18 59.889 59.248 0.6 -2.8 0.6 1.0
1.6 0.0% 1.6% -4.52 19 59.812 59.761 0.1 -2.7 0.1 1.0
1.5 0.9% 1.6% -5.16 20 59.301 59.802 -0.5 -3.2 0.5 0.9
1.7 3.3% 1.7% -2.83 21 61.611 59.401 2.2 -1.0 2.2 1.0
1.6 1.5% 1.6% -1.91 22 61.510 61.169 0.3 -0.7 0.3 1.0
1.6 0.3% 1.6% -2.18 23 60.855 61.442 -0.6 -1.3 0.6 0.9
1.5 0.3% 1.5% -2.06 24 61.135 60.972 0.2 -1.1 0.2 0.9
1.5 2.3% 1.6% -0.53 25 62.451 61.102 1.3 0.2 1.3 0.9
1.5 1.8% 1.6% 0.66 26 62.887 62.181 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.9
1.5 0.0% 1.5% 0.65 27 62.287 62.746 -0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9
1.6 3.4% 1.6% -1.52 28 60.233 62.379 -2.1 -1.7 2.1 0.9
1.5 1.2% 1.6% -2.28 29 60.555 60.662 -0.1 -1.8 0.1 0.9
1.5 0.5% 1.5% -2.02 30 61.205 60.576 0.6 -1.2 0.6 0.9
1.4 0.4% 1.5% -1.79 31 61.309 61.079 0.2 -0.9 0.2 0.9
1.4 0.2% 1.5% -1.70 32 61.314 61.263 0.1 -0.9 0.1 0.9
1.5 3.0% 1.5% 0.44 33 63.158 61.304 1.9 1.0 1.9 0.9
1.4 0.8% 1.5% 1.03 34 62.729 62.787 -0.1 0.9 0.1 0.9
1.4 1.1% 1.5% 0.31 35 61.814 62.741 -0.9 0.0 0.9 0.9
1.4 1.1% 1.5% 1.09 36 62.831 61.999 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9
62.665

SR
4.00

2.00

0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 3
-2.00

-4.00

-6.00

-8.00
 2.00

0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 3
-2.00

-4.00

-6.00

-8.00

-10.00

-12.00

31 32 33 34 35 36 -14.00

SRα1 SRα2 SRα3

EL COMPORTAMIENTO DEL MODELO FRENTE AL PRONOSTICO CON UN α MENOR SE OBSERVA EN

DURANTE LA MAYOR PARTE DE LOS PERIODOS SE SALE DE LOS LIMITES DE CONTROL, PARECE S
ALGUNA CORRECCION Y SE OBSERVA QUE VUELVE A LOS LIMITES DE CONTROL, TAMBIEN SE
PREVALECE HACIA ABAJO LO QUE QUIERE DECIR QUE ESTA SOBREDIMENCIONADO, EN EL CASO
OBSERVA QUE SE ENCUENTRA DE LOS LIMITES DE CONTROL Y VARIA ENTRE LO POSITIVO
NORMALMENTE.
SESα3
 Et^2 EMC EAP/Dt DEPMA SRα3
0.4 0.4 1.0% 1.0% 1.00
0.2 0.3 0.8% 0.9% 2.00
1.5 0.7 2.0% 1.2% -0.16
5.9 2.0 4.1% 2.0% -2.14
0.3 1.7 0.9% 1.8% -1.85
0.5 1.5 1.2% 1.7% -2.67
1.3 1.4 1.9% 1.7% -1.51
2.5 1.6 2.7% 1.8% -2.86
0.2 1.4 0.8% 1.7% -2.57
0.7 1.4 1.4% 1.7% -1.81
0.0 1.2 0.2% 1.5% -1.85
1.8 1.3 2.1% 1.6% -0.40
0.3 1.2 0.9% 1.5% 0.16
0.5 1.1 1.1% 1.5% 0.90
1.6 1.2 2.1% 1.5% -0.49
10.2 1.7 5.5% 1.8% -3.40
0.0 1.6 0.4% 1.7% -3.36
0.4 1.6 1.1% 1.7% -2.79
0.0 1.5 0.1% 1.6% -2.88
0.3 1.4 0.8% 1.5% -3.49
4.9 1.6 3.6% 1.6% -1.05
0.1 1.5 0.6% 1.6% -0.73
0.3 1.5 1.0% 1.6% -1.36
0.0 1.4 0.3% 1.5% -1.23
1.8 1.4 2.2% 1.5% 0.24
0.5 1.4 1.1% 1.5% 1.01
0.2 1.4 0.7% 1.5% 0.52
4.6 1.5 3.6% 1.6% -1.76
0.0 1.4 0.2% 1.5% -1.93
0.4 1.4 1.0% 1.5% -1.26
0.1 1.3 0.4% 1.5% -1.04
0.0 1.3 0.1% 1.4% -1.01
3.4 1.4 2.9% 1.5% 1.10
0.0 1.3 0.1% 1.4% 1.07
0.9 1.3 1.5% 1.4% 0.00
0.7 1.3 1.3% 1.4% 0.96

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

UN α MENOR SE OBSERVA EN EL GRAFICO QUE

TES DE CONTROL, PARECE SER QUE HICIERON
S DE CONTROL, TAMBIEN SE OBSERVA QUE
DIMENCIONADO, EN EL CASO DE MAYOR α SE
VARIA ENTRE LO POSITIVO Y NEGATIVO