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In the Republican contest, Ireland has 31% support over businessman Bill Maloney’s
17%, with everyone else in single digits: State Sen. Clark Barnes and State Del. Mitch
Carmichael at 8%, district attorney Mark Sorsaia at 4%, former State Del. Larry Faircloth
and professor Ralph William Clark at 2%, and former Westover mayor Cliff Ellis at 1%.
The acting incumbent has an advantage in a crowded Democratic field. Tomblin leads
with 32%, about the same as the next two candidates combined. Three candidates—State
Treasurer John Perdue (17%), Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (16%), and State House
Speaker Rick Thompson (15%)—are in a statistical tie for second. State Sen. Jeff
Kessler (5%) and activist Arne Moltis (1%) bring up the rear. 14% are still undecided,
with the primary less than three weeks away. Twice that many are undecided in the GOP
race, more than enough to make a difference if they end up voting.
In the GOP presidential race, Donald Trump has catapulted to a tie for the lead with Mike
Huckabee, each at 24%, with Sarah Palin at 13%, Mitt Romney at 11%, Newt Gingrich at
9%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, and Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann at 3%. When PPP last
polled the race in January, Huckabee led Palin, Gingrich, and Romney, 28-23-17-10, so
Trump’s emergence has taken the greatest toll on Palin and Gingrich. Trump is the least
liked of the candidates, and the main reason he is getting so much support is birtherism.
Among the 53% who do not believe President Obama was born in the U.S., Trump tops
Huckabee and Palin, 30-22-17, but among the 22% who do not buy into that theory,
Huckabee leads 23-16-15 over Romney and Trump, with Palin in seventh at only 6%.
PPP surveyed 590 likely West Virginia Democratic primary voters, with a +/-4.0%
margin of error, and 274 likely Republican primary voters, with a +/-5.9% margin of
error, from April 21st to 24th. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign
or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone
interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company but polling expert Nate Silver of the
New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward
Republican candidates.
Ideology Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative
2011 Dem Gov Tom blin Approval
Prim ary
Approve 58% 64% 56% 57% 56% 57%
Jeff Kessler 5% 8% 7% 5% 5% 1%
Disapprove 19% 20% 22% 19% 19% 8%
Arne Moltis 1% - - 1% 1% 2%
Not sure 24% 16% 22% 23% 26% 34%
John Perdue 17% 20% 12% 17% 24% 12%
Natalie Tennant 16% 22% 21% 15% 8% 13%
Rick Thom pson 15% 16% 18% 17% 7% 16%
Earl Ray Tom blin 32% 25% 25% 32% 42% 36%
Undecided 14% 9% 18% 14% 13% 21%
Ideology Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Perdue Favorability Tennant Favorability
Favorable 32% 38% 33% 30% 38% 17% Favorable 43% 53% 56% 37% 40% 27%
Unfavorable 26% 28% 31% 24% 29% 22% Unfavorable 26% 26% 20% 28% 28% 30%
Not sure 42% 34% 36% 47% 34% 60% Not sure 31% 21% 23% 36% 32% 42%
Ideology
Gender
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base Wom an Man
Thom pson
Favorability 2011 Dem Gov
Favorable 32% 42% 36% 30% 22% 32% Prim ary
Unfavorable 23% 25% 23% 23% 27% 10%
Jeff Kessler 5% 4% 7%
Not sure 46% 34% 41% 47% 50% 58%
Arne Moltis 1% 0% 1%
John Perdue 17% 16% 19%
Natalie Tennant 16% 16% 15%
Rick Thom pson 15% 16% 13%
Earl Ray Tom blin 32% 32% 31%
Undecided 14% 16% 12%
Gender Gender
Base Wom an Man Base Wom an Man
Tom blin Approval Perdue Favorability
Approve 58% 58% 57% Favorable 32% 25% 42%
Disapprove 19% 14% 25% Unfavorable 26% 24% 30%
Not sure 24% 27% 18% Not sure 42% 51% 28%
Gender Gender
Base Wom an Man Base Wom an Man
Tennant Favorability Thom pson
Favorability
Favorable 43% 43% 42%
Favorable 32% 29% 34%
Unfavorable 26% 24% 30%
Unfavorable 23% 19% 28%
Not sure 31% 33% 28%
Not sure 46% 52% 37%
Race Race
Base White Other Base White Other
2011 Dem Gov Tom blin Approval
Prim ary
Approve 58% 58% 59%
Jeff Kessler 5% 5% 6%
Disapprove 19% 19% 7%
Arne Moltis 1% 1% -
Not sure 24% 23% 34%
John Perdue 17% 17% 18%
Natalie Tennant 16% 16% 16%
Rick Thom pson 15% 15% 5%
Earl Ray Tom blin 32% 31% 34%
Undecided 14% 14% 20%
Race Race
Base White Other Base White Other
Perdue Favorability Tennant Favorability
Favorable 32% 32% 24% Favorable 43% 43% 40%
Unfavorable 26% 26% 33% Unfavorable 26% 26% 29%
Not sure 42% 42% 42% Not sure 31% 31% 31%
Race Age
Base White Other 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Thom pson Base 29 45 65 than 65
Favorability 2011 Dem Gov
Prim ary
Favorable 32% 32% 27%
Jeff Kessler 5% 5% 2% 7% 7%
Unfavorable 23% 23% 22%
Arne Moltis 1% - - 0% 2%
Not sure 46% 45% 51%
John Perdue 17% 23% 12% 16% 20%
Natalie Tennant 16% 13% 19% 14% 18%
Rick Thom pson 15% 13% 14% 18% 13%
Earl Ray Tom blin 32% 38% 38% 30% 27%
Undecided 14% 10% 16% 15% 15%
Age Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base 29 45 65 than 65 Base 29 45 65 than 65
Tom blin Approval Perdue Favorability
Approve 58% 63% 59% 58% 54% Favorable 32% 35% 21% 30% 41%
Disapprove 19% 15% 19% 21% 17% Unfavorable 26% 20% 33% 29% 21%
Not sure 24% 23% 22% 21% 29% Not sure 42% 45% 47% 40% 38%
Age Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base 29 45 65 than 65 Base 29 45 65 than 65
Tennant Favorability Thom pson
Favorability
Favorable 43% 40% 40% 42% 46%
Favorable 32% 40% 29% 33% 27%
Unfavorable 26% 25% 34% 26% 22%
Unfavorable 23% 20% 22% 24% 23%
Not sure 31% 35% 26% 32% 32%
Not sure 46% 40% 48% 43% 50%
Ideology
Obam a Born in
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
US? Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Ideology Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative
2012 GOP Pres Ireland Favorability
Prim ary
Favorable 47% 61% 42% 48% 45% 49%
Michele Bachm ann 3% - 4% - 3% 5%
Unfavorable 15% 16% 16% 7% 22% 12%
New t Gingrich 9% 16% 12% 3% 15% 6%
Not sure 38% 22% 42% 45% 33% 39%
Mike Huckabee 24% 11% 16% 23% 22% 28%
Sarah Palin 13% 39% 24% 15% 9% 12%
Ron Paul 3% - - - 5% 4%
Tim Paw lenty 4% - - 2% 2% 7%
Mitt Rom ney 11% - 15% 11% 17% 7%
Donald Trum p 24% 22% 20% 39% 18% 22%
Som eone 9% 11% 8% 7% 10% 9%
else/Undecided
Ideology Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Maloney Favorability Gingrich Favorability
Favorable 27% 11% 15% 19% 26% 34% Favorable 57% 34% 30% 45% 60% 64%
Unfavorable 11% 39% 16% 15% 2% 14% Unfavorable 20% 39% 48% 33% 15% 14%
Not sure 62% 50% 69% 66% 72% 52% Not sure 23% 28% 22% 22% 25% 22%
Ideology Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Huckabee Palin Favorability
Favorability
Favorable 67% 72% 46% 66% 59% 78%
Favorable 73% 45% 59% 63% 70% 85%
Unfavorable 18% 11% 39% 28% 20% 9%
Unfavorable 10% 16% 31% 12% 7% 7%
Not sure 15% 16% 14% 7% 21% 13%
Not sure 17% 39% 10% 25% 23% 8%
Ideology Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Rom ney Favorability Trum p Favorability
Favorable 51% 34% 37% 46% 53% 56% Favorable 47% 45% 34% 60% 39% 49%
Unfavorable 23% 39% 34% 28% 14% 25% Unfavorable 33% 39% 47% 27% 39% 29%
Not sure 26% 28% 28% 26% 33% 20% Not sure 20% 16% 18% 13% 21% 22%
Gender Gender
Base Wom an Man Base Wom an Man
2011 GOP Gov 2012 GOP Pres
Prim ary Prim ary
Clark Barnes 8% 6% 11% Michele Bachm ann 3% 2% 5%
Mitch Carm ichael 8% 8% 7% New t Gingrich 9% 7% 12%
Ralph William Clark 2% 0% 3% Mike Huckabee 24% 26% 21%
Cliff Ellis 1% - 1% Sarah Palin 13% 9% 17%
Larry Faircloth 2% 2% 2% Ron Paul 3% 3% 4%
Betty Ireland 31% 29% 34% Tim Paw lenty 4% 3% 4%
Bill Maloney 17% 17% 17% Mitt Rom ney 11% 14% 9%
Mark Sorsaia 4% 5% 2% Donald Trum p 24% 25% 23%
Undecided 28% 32% 23% Som eone 9% 11% 6%
else/Undecided
Gender Gender
Base Wom an Man Base Wom an Man
Ireland Favorability Maloney Favorability
Favorable 47% 45% 50% Favorable 27% 24% 30%
Unfavorable 15% 12% 17% Unfavorable 11% 10% 12%
Not sure 38% 43% 33% Not sure 62% 66% 58%
Gender Gender
Base Wom an Man Base Wom an Man
Gingrich Favorability Huckabee
Favorability
Favorable 57% 54% 60%
Favorable 73% 76% 70%
Unfavorable 20% 20% 21%
Unfavorable 10% 7% 13%
Not sure 23% 26% 20%
Not sure 17% 17% 17%
Gender Gender
Base Wom an Man Base Wom an Man
Palin Favorability Rom ney Favorability
Favorable 67% 65% 70% Favorable 51% 55% 48%
Unfavorable 18% 18% 17% Unfavorable 23% 16% 29%
Not sure 15% 16% 13% Not sure 26% 29% 23%
Gender Age
Base Wom an Man 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base 29 45 65 than 65
Trum p Favorability
2011 GOP Gov
Favorable 47% 48% 46%
Prim ary
Unfavorable 33% 30% 37%
Clark Barnes 8% 11% 6% 9% 9%
Not sure 20% 23% 17%
Mitch Carm ichael 8% - 15% 7% 4%
Ralph William Clark 2% 11% - 1% 3%
Cliff Ellis 1% - 3% - -
Larry Faircloth 2% - - 2% 5%
Betty Ireland 31% 44% 24% 31% 37%
Bill Maloney 17% 11% 9% 23% 15%
Mark Sorsaia 4% - 6% 4% 2%
Undecided 28% 22% 38% 24% 26%
Age Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base 29 45 65 than 65 Base 29 45 65 than 65
2012 GOP Pres Ireland Favorability
Prim ary
Favorable 47% 56% 38% 49% 51%
Michele Bachm ann 3% - - 6% 2%
Unfavorable 15% - 24% 13% 12%
New t Gingrich 9% - 6% 8% 16%
Not sure 38% 44% 38% 37% 38%
Mike Huckabee 24% 22% 26% 22% 25%
Sarah Palin 13% 11% 18% 12% 11%
Ron Paul 3% - 3% 5% 2%
Tim Paw lenty 4% 11% 3% 3% 4%
Mitt Rom ney 11% 22% 9% 12% 11%
Donald Trum p 24% 33% 29% 21% 20%
Som eone 9% - 6% 11% 10%
else/Undecided
Age Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base 29 45 65 than 65 Base 29 45 65 than 65
Maloney Favorability Gingrich Favorability
Favorable 27% 44% 15% 31% 28% Favorable 57% 56% 50% 61% 55%
Unfavorable 11% - 12% 15% 5% Unfavorable 20% 22% 21% 20% 20%
Not sure 62% 56% 74% 54% 67% Not sure 23% 22% 29% 19% 25%
Age Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base 29 45 65 than 65 Base 29 45 65 than 65
Huckabee Palin Favorability
Favorability
Favorable 67% 67% 71% 69% 62%
Favorable 73% 67% 74% 74% 74%
Unfavorable 18% 11% 15% 20% 18%
Unfavorable 10% 11% 9% 9% 11%
Not sure 15% 22% 15% 11% 20%
Not sure 17% 22% 18% 17% 15%
Age Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base 29 45 65 than 65 Base 29 45 65 than 65
Rom ney Favorability Trum p Favorability
Favorable 51% 67% 50% 51% 49% Favorable 47% 56% 55% 48% 36%
Unfavorable 23% - 24% 24% 24% Unfavorable 33% 33% 24% 35% 39%
Not sure 26% 33% 26% 24% 27% Not sure 20% 11% 21% 17% 25%