Auto Monthly - July 2010-Centrum

Wheels on the road (Auto Monthly)
Ajay Shethiya
ajay.shethiya@centrum.co.in
+91 22 4215 9855 July 2010
Strictly private and confidential

Summary
Auto sales volumes in June 2010 registered robust 32% YoY growth. However, on a MoM basis, overall volume growth remained muted at
0.6%. Going ahead, we believe that with the onset of the monsoon, sales may see sequential weakness till August and start picking up post-
August, as the companies start building up inventories at the dealers’ end for the festive season.
Most of the OEMs have effected price increases – two-wheelers (1.5-2%), passenger vehicles ( 2-3%) and commercial vehicles ( 2-3%). Given
the buoyant demand across the segment, we believe these price increases would get absorbed in the market. Further, they would also help
companies partially mitigate the input cost pressure expected in 1QFY11E. details on slide no. 3
Sector Snapshot - Volume Break up

Monthly YTD
(Nos) Jun -10 Jun -09 May -10 YoY (%) MoM (%) FY11 FY10 YoY (%)
Bajaj Auto 315,422 193,202 299,442 63.3 5.3 928,336 547,662 69.5
TVS Motors 159,688 116,258 156,980 37.4 1.7 463,840 349,364 32.8
Hero Honda 426,454 365,734 435,933 16.6 (2.2) 1,284,039 1,118,987 14.8
Total 901,564 675,194 892,355 33.5 1.0 2,676,215 2,016,013 32.7
Ashok Leyland 8,400 3,966 6,502 111.8 29.2 21,402 7,693 178.2
Tata Motors 67,730 45,399 56,779 49.2 19.3 181,711 123,113 47.6
Maruti Suzuki 88,091 75,109 102,175 17.3 (13.8) 283,324 226,729 25.0
Mahindra & Mahindra 44,152 41,241 45,744 7.1 (3.5) 132,243 106,251 24.5
Total 208,373 165,715 211,200 25.7 (1.3) 618,680 463,786 33.4
Source: Company, Centrum Research
2
Dealer Check
We interacted with dealers across the board to get a sense on As indicated in our previous note, Bajaj Auto has officially indicated
the price revision and the waiting period. increasing the prices for its motorcycle portfolio inline with our
assessment. TVS also followed suit by increasing the price s for its
Tata Motors’ dealers indicated about strong response for Indigo motorcycle portfolio by 1-2%.
GLx. Also, the waiting period for Maruti Suzuki’s Swift Dzire
continue to remain at 2-3 months. Based on our dealer-level interaction, we believe that even Maruti
Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL) will increase the prices across the models by
2-3% effective from 1st July 2010.
Ashok Leyland (ALL) to increase prices by 3% effective from 1st July

2010 across the categories.
Price Hike in 2W
Player Model Waiting period Player Model Old Price New Price Abs Change Change %
Compact Cars Price Segment
Hyundai Motors India Ltd Santro 3-4 week Bajaj Auto Platina 125 44,998 45,998 1,000 2.22
Hyundai Motors India Ltd i10 Dlite 3-4 week Hero Honda CD Dawn 39,900 40,500 600 1.50
TVS Motors Star 46,900 46,987 87 0.19

Hyundai Motors India Ltd i20 Era 3-4 week
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd Alto 7-10 days Executive Segment
Bajaj Auto Discover 150 54,000 54,750 750 1.39

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd Wagon R 7-10 days
Discover 100 cc 50,356 50,856 500 0.99
Tata Motors Ltd Indica vista 15 days
Hero Honda Splendor PLUS 48,283 48,283 - -
Tata Motors Ltd. zeta 10 days
Passion PLUS 51,245 51,815 570 1.11
Sedan’s
TVS Motors Jive 50,875 50,875 - -
Hyundai Motors India Ltd Accent 3-4 week
Premium Segment
Hyundai Motors India Ltd Verna 1.6 VTVT 3-4 week
Bajaj Auto Pulsar 180cc 71,951 73,451 1,500 2.08
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd Dzire 2-3 month Pulsar 150cc 71,151 72,651 1,500 2.11
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd SX4 7-10 days Hero Honda Karizma 86,952 87,963 1,011 1.16
Tata Motors Ltd Indigo Glx 10 days TVS Motors Apache 68,800 70,214 1,414 2.06
Source: Dealers, Company, Centrum Research

3
Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL)
MSIL registered overall volume growth of 17.3% YoY driven by MSIL – Sales figures
17.9% domestic volume growth and 14.6% export growth.
(000's)
Exports now contribute 14% to the overall volumes compared to
9% in FY09. 120
102
96 97 95
MSIL suffered production loss of 6 days on account of planned 100
85 83 85 88 85
93
88
maintenance shutdown of facilitates. 80 78
72 75
80
Management said sales to Europe could drop 10-15% in FY11E
60
over FY10. However, it also indicated the better-than-expected
traction in Latin America, Middle-east and new export 40
destination will help the company is offsetting the volume loss
seen from European markets. 20
Our interaction with MSIL dealers indicated that the company is -
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
planning to increase the prices for its models across the bard by
2-3% effective from 1st of July 2010.
MSIL - Volume Break up

Monthly YTD
A1 2,090 2,438 2,558 (14.3) (18.3) 6,906 7,119 (3.0)
C 9,914 6,890 12,953 43.9 (23.5) 33,521 22,233 50.8
A2 51,418 46,156 62,679 11.4 (18.0) 170,513 146,733 16.2
A3 8,081 6,099 10,883 32.5 (25.7) 28,958 19,947 45.2
Tot PC 71,503 61,583 89,073 16.1 (19.7) 239,898 196,032 22.4
MUV 1,309 190 968 588.9 35.2 2,989 1,383 116.1
Domestic 72,812 61,773 90,041 17.9 (19.1) 242,887 197,415 23.0
Exports 15,279 13,336 12,134 14.6 25.9 40,437 29,314 37.9
Total Sales 88,091 75,109 102,175 17.3 (13.8) 283,324 226,729 25.0
4
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M)
M&M’s UV portfolio declined 3.6% YoY and 10.2% MoM. M&M – Sales figures
Tractor volumes, inclusive of Punjab Tractors (PTL), also dropped (000's)
9.1% YoY and 3.9% MoM. 60
Our interaction with Gujarat-based dealers for Yuvraj tractors 50 45 44

47 48
46 44
indicated that the product has been well received and the 41 41 42
40 35 35 35 36
company has been able to sell more than 1,500 units post the 33
30
launch.
30
The product is aggressively prices at Rs180, 000 compared to VST
20
Tillers’ 18.4HP tractor, which is priced at Rs258,000. However,
adjusted for subsidy of Rs60,000, the effective price comes down 10
to Rs200,000.
0
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
M&M – Volume Break up
Monthly YTD
UV 17,010 17,653 18,940 (3.6) (10.2) 53,948 48,720 10.7
LCV* 1,111 1,014 1,007 9.6 10.3 2,978 2,493 19.5
Logan* 563 501 450 12.4 25.1 1,316 1,478 (11.0)
Total (4W) 18,684 19,168 20,397 (2.5) (8.4) 58,242 52,691 10.5
3-Wheelers 7,559 3,357 6,641 125.2 13.8 20,076 9,032 122.3
Exports# 1,319 473 1,450 178.9 (9.0) 3,775 1,145 229.7
Total (3w & 4W) 27,562 22,998 28,488 19.8 (3.3) 82,093 62,868 30.6
Tractors (Domestic) 15,411 17,811 16,608 (13.5) (7.2) 47,718 41,963 13.7
Tractors (Exports) 1,179 432 648 172.9 81.9 2,432 1,420 71.3
Tractors 16,590 18,243 17,256 (9.1) (3.9) 50,150 43,383 15.6
Total vehicles 44,152 41,241 45,744 7.1 (3.5) 132,243 106,251 24.5
5
Tata Motors (TAMO)
TAMO – Sales figures
TAMO’s M&HCV segment registered 50.1% YoY and 9.9% MoM (000's)
growth. The LCV segment registered a strong YoY growth of 80 75
29.3% and 10.4% MoM growth. 69 68
70 65
The passenger car segment also registered a strong growth of 60 53 53 54 52
57 57
82.1% and 34.2% on YoY and MoM basis respectively. 48 50
50 45
40
The growth was largely driven by doubling of Nano sales (7,400 40
38
unit’s vs. 3,500 units in April/May 2010) and strong response for 30
Indigo GLx.
20
10
-
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
TAMO – Volume Break up
` Monthly YTD
HCV 16,400 10,927 14,922 50.1 9.9 45,298 28,965 56.4
- Domestic 15,139 9,949 13,860 52.2 9.2 42,156 26,626 58.3
- Exports 1,261 978 1,062 28.9 18.7 3,142 2,339 34.3
LCV 22,023 17,037 19,943 29.3 10.4 61,639 47,358 30.2
- Domestic 19,652 16,256 17,615 20.9 11.6 55,073 45,430 21.2
- Exports 2,371 781 2,328 203.6 1.8 6,566 1,928 240.6
CAR 25,668 14,093 19,125 82.1 34.2 64,979 38,673 68.0
- Domestic 24,209 13,732 18,618 76.3 30.0 62,589 37,772 65.7
- Exports 1,459 361 507 304.2 187.8 2,390 901 165.3
UV 3,639 3,342 2,789 8.9 30.5 9,795 8,117 20.7
- Domestic 3,602 3,307 2,708 8.9 33.0 9,650 8,065 19.7
- Exports 37 35 81 5.7 (54.3) 145 52 178.8
Total 67,730 45,399 56,779 49.2 19.3 181,711 123,113 47.6

6
Ashok Leyland (ALL)
ALL – Sales figures
ALL’s M&HCV segment registered a YoY growth of 117.4% and
(000's)
29.6% on a MoM basis.
12
The domestic LCV segment registered a YoY domestic growth 10
of 29.7% and strong MoM growth of 15.7%. 10
8
8 8 8
ALL has taken price increase effective from 1st of July 2010 8
7 7
6
across the categories to extent of 3%. 5 5
6 5 5
ALL’s management has guided for overall volumes of 85,000 4 4
4
units for FY11E compared to 64,000 units for FY10, implying a
2
YoY growth of 33%. 2
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
ALL – Volume Break up
Monthly YTD
Domestic 1,795 1,016 1,213 76.7 48.0 4,184 2,211 89.2
Exports 409 130 223 214.6 83.4 904 274 229.9
MDV Passengers 2,204 1,146 1,436 92.3 53.5 5,088 2,485 104.7
Domestic 5,608 2,388 4,677 134.8 19.9 15,059 4,427 240.2
Exports 472 277 281 70.4 68.0 980 526 86.3
MDV Goods 6,080 2,665 4,958 128.1 22.6 16,039 4,953 223.8
Total HCV 8,284 3,811 6,394 117.4 29.6 21,127 7,438 184.0
Domestic 96 74 83 29.7 15.7 219 152 44.1
Exports 20 81 25 (75.3) (20.0) 56 103 (45.6)
Total LCV 116 155 108 (25.2) 7.4 275 255 7.8
Total Vehicles sold 8,400 3,966 6,502 111.8 29.2 21,402 7,693 178.2

7
Bajaj Auto (BAL)
Driven by the continued momentum for Pulsar and Discover, BAL BAL – Sales figures
registered a YoY growth of 68.4% in the motorcycle segment. (000's)
However, on a MoM basis, the segment registered a marginal 350 313 315
299
growth of 5%. 300 281 280 277
266 269 274
252
During the month, the company sold 20,000 units of new Discover 250 213
150cc). The management indicated loss of 15,000-20,000 units on 185 193 193
200 169
account of supply constraints.
150
Management indicated that motorcycle production of 3,00,000
units/month and three-wheeler capacity of 35,000 units/month is 100
expected to go on stream by July 2010. 50
0
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
BAL – Volume Break up
Monthly YTD
Bajaj Auto
68.4 4.9 71.6
- Motorcycles 282,808 167,945 269,488 828,391 482,727
67.9 4.9 71.0
- Total 2-wheelers 282,808 168,471 269,488 828,418 484,420
- Three-wheelers 32,614 24,731 29,954 31.9 8.9 99,918 63,242 58.0
315,422 193,202 299,442 63.3 5.3 928,336 547,662 69.5

Total Sales
8
Hero Honda Motors (HH)
HH registered a YoY growth of 16.6% in volumes. However, on a HH – Sales figures
MoM basis, it registered a marginal drop of 2.2%. (000's)
HH’s monthly numbers have been better than our expectations and 500
436 426
has been consistently able to maintain overall volumes in excess of 450 415 401 415 422
371 383 366 366 381 376 390 382
0.4mn units. 400 354
350
HH recorded highest ever quarterly sales in Q1FY11, with a growth of 300
10% over Q1FY10. 250
200
Our interaction with dealers indicate that the supply constraints
150
have been resolved and the waiting period is not more than 10-15
100
days across the models.
50
The scooter segment continues to do well with Pleasure maintaining 0
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
its monthly run rate (MRR) of 25,000 units.
HH – Volume Break up
Monthly YTD
Hero Honda
- Motorcycles 426,454 365,734 435,933 16.6 (2.2) 1,284,039 1,118,987 14.8
Total Sales 426,454 365,734 435,933 16.6 (2.2) 1,284,039 1,118,987 14.8
9
TVS Motors (TVSL)
During June 2010, TVS’ motorcycle segment reported a strong TVSL – Sales figures
YoY growth of 44.3%. Scooter and the moped segments
(000's)
continued to register a strong YoY growth of 41.6% and 23.1%,
180
respectively. 157 160
160 144 149 147
143
As a result, the overall two-wheeler volumes registered a 140 122
128 132
122 121 127
healthy growth of 35.7%. 114 119 116
120
The three-wheeler sales for TVS crossed 3,000 units for the first 100
time registering sales of 3,003 units compared to 2,313 units for 80
May 2010 and 810 units for June 2009. 60
40
20
0
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
TVSL – Volume Break up
Monthly YTD
TVS Motors
- Scooters 36,742 25,945 31,884 41.6 15.2 95,486 67,250 42.0
- Motorcycles 66,452 46,048 67,906 44.3 (2.1) 200,358 152,778 31.1
- Mopeds 53,491 43,455 54,877 23.1 (2.5) 160,197 127,113 26.0
- Total 2-wheelers 156,685 115,448 154,667 35.7 1.3 456,041 347,141 31.4
- Three-wheelers 3,003 810 2,313 270.7 29.8 7,799 2,223 250.8
Total Sales 159,688 116,258 156,980 37.4 1.7 463,840 349,364 32.8
10
Relative Valuations
Revenue EBITDA PAT P/E EV/EBITDA
Company Ticker CMP Market Cap FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E
(in Rs) (in Rs Bn) (in Rs bn) (in Rs bn) (in Rs bn) (x) (x)
TAMO - Standalone TAMO 768 393 435 509 47 56 20.4 24.6 19.2 15.9 12.3 10.4
TAMO - Consolidated TAMO 768 393 971 1,088 104 125 32.1 46.5 12.2 8.4 6.0 4.7
M&M - Standalone MM 626 313 217 249 32 37 22.3 25.3 14.1 12.4 11.6 9.9
M&M - Consolidated MM 626 313 336 380 42 46 27.6 30.5 11.4 10.3 8.0 7.1
Maruti Suzuki MSIL 1,393 410 336 385 41 47 27.1 30.9 15.1 13.2 8.5 7.2
Ashok Leyland AL 67 74 92 108 10 12 5.4 6.8 13.8 11.0 11.1 9.4
Bajaj Auto BJAUT 2,437 292 147 166 29 32 21.3 23.8 13.7 12.3 11.7 10.2
Hero Honda HH 2,010 388 180 203 30 33 24.5 27.5 15.9 14.1 12.6 10.8
TVS - Standalone TVSL 115 20 54 62 4 4 1.7 2.1 11.6 9.2 8.5 7.5
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research

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Sector Snapshot - Volume Break up

Total 901,564 675,194 892,355 33.5 1.0 2,676,215 2,016,013 32.7

Total 208,373 165,715 211,200 25.7 (1.3) 618,680 463,786 33.4

Source: Company, Centrum Research

 Ashok Leyland (ALL) to increase prices by 3% effective from 1st July

Compact Cars Price Segment

TVS Motors Star 46,900 46,987 87 0.19

Bajaj Auto Discover 150 54,000 54,750 750 1.39

Source: Dealers, Company, Centrum Research

 Our interaction with MSIL dealers indicated that the company is -

MSIL - Volume Break up

A1 2,090 2,438 2,558 (14.3) (18.3) 6,906 7,119 (3.0)

C 9,914 6,890 12,953 43.9 (23.5) 33,521 22,233 50.8

A2 51,418 46,156 62,679 11.4 (18.0) 170,513 146,733 16.2

A3 8,081 6,099 10,883 32.5 (25.7) 28,958 19,947 45.2

Tot PC 71,503 61,583 89,073 16.1 (19.7) 239,898 196,032 22.4

MUV 1,309 190 968 588.9 35.2 2,989 1,383 116.1

Domestic 72,812 61,773 90,041 17.9 (19.1) 242,887 197,415 23.0

Exports 15,279 13,336 12,134 14.6 25.9 40,437 29,314 37.9

Source: Company, Centrum Research

 Our interaction with Gujarat-based dealers for Yuvraj tractors 50 45 44

Source: Company, Centrum Research

Source: Company, Centrum Research

Source: Company, Centrum Research

- Three-wheelers 32,614 24,731 29,954 31.9 8.9 99,918 63,242 58.0

315,422 193,202 299,442 63.3 5.3 928,336 547,662 69.5

Source: Company, Centrum Research

- Motorcycles 426,454 365,734 435,933 16.6 (2.2) 1,284,039 1,118,987 14.8

Source: Company, Centrum Research

- Scooters 36,742 25,945 31,884 41.6 15.2 95,486 67,250 42.0

- Motorcycles 66,452 46,048 67,906 44.3 (2.1) 200,358 152,778 31.1

- Mopeds 53,491 43,455 54,877 23.1 (2.5) 160,197 127,113 26.0

- Three-wheelers 3,003 810 2,313 270.7 29.8 7,799 2,223 250.8

Source: Company, Centrum Research

Revenue EBITDA PAT P/E EV/EBITDA

Ashok Leyland AL 67 74 92 108 10 12 5.4 6.8 13.8 11.0 11.1 9.4

Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research

Strictly private and confidential

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Our interaction with MSIL dealers indicated that the company is -

Our interaction with Gujarat-based dealers for Yuvraj tractors 50 45 44