Global Research Limited

Commodity Weekly Report

Commodity
02nd May - 07th May 2011
WEEKLY

BASE METALS DROPS ON US

EMPLOYMENT DATA !

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 Economic Data

Weekly Report

Commodity 02nd May - 07th May 2011

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

Mon 7:30pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 59.9 61.2
May 2
7:30pm USD Construction Spending m/m 0.4% -1.4%
7:30pm USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 83.3 85.0

Tue 7:30pm USD Factory Orders m/m 1.9% -0.1%

May 3 All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 13.0M 13.1M

Wed Tentative USD Loan Officer Survey

May 4 5:00pm USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y -38.6%
5:45pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 202K 201K
7:30pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 58.4 57.3
8:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 6.2M

Thu 6:00pm USD Unemployment Claims 419K 429K

May 5 6:00pm USD Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q 1.1% 2.6%
6:00pm USD Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q 0.8% -0.6%
6:45pm USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
7:00pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
7:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 31B
10:45pm USD FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks

Fri 5:00pm USD FOMC Member Yellen Speaks

May 6
6:00pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change 185K 216K
6:00pm USD Unemployment Rate 8.8% 8.8%
6:45pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.0%
7:00pm USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

Sat 12:30am USD Consumer Credit m/m 5.2B 7.6B

May 7

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 Fundamental Market Overview

Weekly Report

Commodity 02nd May - 07th May 2011

SILVER, GOLD NEAR LIFETIME HIGHS, DOLLAR LOSES GROUND

Silver and Gold were within sight of historic highs on Friday and could resume an uptrend as the U.S. dollar held near three-year lows against a
basket of currencies on hopes U.S. monetary policy would stay ultra-loose, keeping inflationary price pressures high. A fresh batch of U.S.
economic data in the form of rising claims for jobless benefits failed to rescue the dollar, which had dropped to its weakest level since July 2008
against other currencies before recovering slightly. Silver barely moved, standing at 48.35 an ounce, after having rallied to a record at $49.51 an
ounce on Thursday. Gold eased 75 cents to $1,534.20 an ounce after hitting a lifetime high around $1,538 an ounce in the previous session. But
dealers said strong investment demand for silver would keep the metal at record levels, while a lack of scrap sales in the physical market
suggested that investors expected more gains. Year to date, silver was up almost 60 percent, sharply above Gold's 8 percent gain. The CME Group
Inc, parent of the Chicago Board of Trade, said on Thursday it would raise maintenance margins for COMEX 5000 Silver futures by 13.2 percent,
making it more expensive for silver speculators to trade in. The dollar index which tracks the currency's performance against a basket of major
currencies was down 0.1 percent at 73.030, having plumbed a three-year low of 72.871 on Thursday. It is down around 1.4 percent so far this
week, on track for its biggest weekly drop since a 2.5 percent fall in the week to Jan. 16. Sentiment for the dollar took a hit this week after the
Federal Reserve said it was in no hurry to tighten its ultra-loose monetary policy, a move that gave investors the green light to keep using the
dollar as a funding currency to buy higher-yielding assets.

NYMEX-CRUDE HITS 31-MONTH CLOSING HIGH ON MIDEAST, DOLLAR

U.S. Crude oil futures settled at the highest level in 31 months on Friday as a weaker dollar and geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and North
Africa overshadowed demand worries in the face of slower U.S. economic growth. U.S. Crude has risen for eight consecutive months, the longest
stretch of monthly gains since the New York Mercantile Exchange introduced the Crude oil contract in 1983. May gasoline and heating oil futures
rose and expired at the close of the last trading day in April. Gasoline futures advanced for the eighth month in a row and heating oil futures
gained for a sixth consecutive month. In the week to April 16, money managers increased their bets on higher U.S. Crude oil prices to a combined
record in New York and London, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

FUNDAMENTALS
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude for June delivery rose for a third day and settled at $113.93 a barrel, gaining $1.07, or 0.95
percent, after trading from $112.25 to $114.18. It was the highest settlement since Sept. 22, 2008, when front-month Crude settled at $120.92.
For the month, U.S. Crude rose $7.21, or 6.8 percent.

UPCOMING DATA/EVENTS
U.S. Energy Information Administration's inventory data, on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

SHANGHAI COPPER EDGES UP ON LONDON, CHINA COPPER IMPORTS

Copper fell to a six-week low on Friday, ignoring the often supportive influence of a weaker dollar, as technical pressures mounted and U.S. data
offered further evidence of slowing economic conditions. Copper's losses diverged from U.S. industrial share prices, which were buoyed by a
fivefold increase in quarterly profits from heavy machinery manufacturer Caterpillar Inc. Instead, prices crumbled under a negative price chart
picture after the front-month May contract broke down below key trend line support around $4.20 per lb. The most-active July COMEX Copper
contract slumped to a session low of $4.1580 per lb, its lowest level since March 15, before ending the day at $4.1790, down 8.25 cents from
Thursday's close. It was the second consecutive monthly loss for the metal as concerns about rising inflation and further rounds of interest rate
hikes in Asia, Europe and Latin America underscored perceptions of lower demand for raw materials at the start of the year. Copper was down
overnight after data showed inflation pressures on the rise in the euro zone, upping the chances of an interest rate increase in June. But losses
kicked into high-gear after U.S. data showed factory activity in the country's Midwest slowed this month, as tepid demand in the first quarter left
businesses with less of a need to rebuild inventories.

SHANGHAI SURPLUS
Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell for the sixth week to their lowest level since mid-February.
Despite the steady fall of stocks in surveyed warehouses, Standard Chartered bank warned that China's Copper inventories in bonded warehouses
were still on the rise in April. Stocks in Shanghai's bonded warehouses were hovering at around 650,000 tonnes, equivalent to roughly four weeks
of China's domestic use and higher than the 200,000-tonne average over the past three years. The London Metal Exchange (LME) Copper three-
month delivery contract was closed Friday for Britain's royal wedding, and will remain shut on Monday for a public holiday. Shanghai will also be
shut on Monday.

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 Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity 02nd May - 07th May 2011

GOLD
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 1695 1617 1586 1539 1509 1461 1383

Market Overview
COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold sustains on higher level and
closed near to its week high. In the coming week 1500$ will act as a major support in
COMEX Gold, if COMEX Gold sustains above 1525 $ an ounce then above 1575 $ an ounce
it can touch the level of 1530$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1490$ then it
can slightly correct and test the level of 1460$ an ounce.

Strategy
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above
1520$ an ounce, then above 1575$ it can test the level of 1590$ an ounce and above
1590$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses.
Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1500$ and 1450$.
Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1605$ and 1645$
Major support in MCX Gold is 22200 and 21900
Major resistance in MCX Gold is 23050 and 23300

SILVER
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 5810 5289 5074 4769 4554 4248 3728

Market Overview
COMEX Silver is technically strong on charts. Last week COMEX Silver neither closed on
higher levels nor at lower levels. For the upcoming week 4380$ and 4220$ are the crucial
supports and 5000$ and 5150 $ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver
73000 and 75500 will act as major resistance and 64000 and 63000 will act as major
supports.

Strategy
Technically COMEX Silver is strong on charts, For the next week traders can use buy on
lower level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 4500$ an ounce, then above 4930$
an ounce it can further go upward and can test the level of 4990$ an ounce. Trade by
keeping the proper stop losses.

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 Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity 02nd May - 07th May 2011

CRUDE OIL
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 119.88 116.41 115.17 112.94 111.70 109.47 106.00

Market Overview
NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week Crude oil sustained on higher levels and made
a close near to its week high.. For the coming week 106$ and 100$ will act as major
supports and 115 $ and 118$ a barrel will be a major resistance in NYMEX Crude. In MCX
Crude Oil major resistance is found at 5100 and 5250 and major supports will be 4700 and
4500.

Strategy
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains
above the level of 108 $ a barrel then above 115$ it can slightly come up and touch the level
of 116.50 $ a barrel and in MCX above 5100 Crude oil can touch the level of 5170 if it
sustains above 4950. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

COPPER
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 477.50 451.35 434.60 425.20 408.40 399.05 372.90

Market Overview
Copper is in an upward consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy on
lower levels. Last week COMEX Copper was up for most part of week. If next week COMEX
Copper sustains above the level of 405then above the level of 425 Copper can test the level
of 432. In MCX Copper above 418 Copper can test the level of 425 if it does not break the
level of 400 on the downside.

Strategy
For the upcoming week 435 and 445 will act as major resistance and 405 and 395 will act as
major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 428 and 438
and supports would be found at 400 and 390.

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 Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity 02nd May - 07th May 2011

NATURAL GAS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 5.224 4.911 4.805 4.598 4.492 4.285 3.972

Market Overview
Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buying on
lower levels. Last week Natural Gas was up for most part of the week. If next week Natural
Gas sustains above the level of 4.500 $ then above the level of 4.700$ Natural Gas can test
the level of 4.790 $ and below 4.380$ Natural Gas can slightly go down and test the level of
4.280 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains above 211 in the coming week then it can test the
level of 218, if it does not break the level of 198 on the downside.

Strategy
For the upcoming week 4.250$ and 4.050 $ will act as major supports and 4.880$ and
5.200$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance
would be 220 and 228, supports would be found at 197 and 185.

USD / INR
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 45.2930 44.8130 44.5270 44.3330 44.0470 43.8530 43.3730

Market Overview
USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lower
levels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 44.3000 then above the level of
44.6200 USD/INR can test the level of 44.8500 and below 43.8000 USD/INR can slightly go
down and test the level of 43.6000.

Strategy
For the upcoming week 43.8000 and 43.5000 will act as major supports and 45.4000 and
46.0000 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

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 Weekly Market Update

Weekly Report

Commodity 02nd May - 07th May 2011

Weekly
Exch- Expiry Commodity Previous Qty. Open
Symbol Price Unit Open High Low Close Net TurnOver *
ange Date Name Close Traded Interest
(Rs. in Lakhs)

Gold MCX 4-JUN -11 Gold Rs./ 10gm 22120 22077 22856 21792 22820 170716 700 14786 3458153.05

Silver MCX 5-JUL -11 Silver RS./ KG. 71698 71650 74560 66914 71350 214246 -348 15549 4340185.75

Copper MCX 30-JUN-11 Copper RS./ KG. 440.25 439.25 439.25 412.25 415.9 180636 -24.35 26658 745074.42

Crude Oil MCX 19-MAY -11 Crude Oil RS./ BBL. 5018 5022 5085 4946 5047 538478 29 15479 2687345.07

Natural Gas MCX 25-MAY -11 Natural Gas RS./ MM BTU 201.8 201.3 210.1 197 208.3 89005 6.5 6615 219236.53

Lead MCX 31-MAY -11 Lead RS./ KG. 117.95 117.9 117.9 111.1 112.8 29175 -5.15 5110 163006.94

Zinc MCX 31-MAY -11 Zinc RS./ KG. 106.45 106.05 106.3 99.8 101.2 50855 -5.25 11680 255225.66

Nickel MCX 31-MAY -11 Nickel RS./ KG. 1216.7 1212 1212.8 1168 1202.4 89314 -14.3 5824 260290.38

Aluminum MCX 31-MAY -11 Aluminium RS./ KG. 122.6 122.65 123.05 120.15 122.55 10704 -0.05 3222 63982.89

* Turnover Till Friday

WEEKLY GAINERS INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE WEEKLY

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Closing Price % Change

NATURAL GAS 25 –MAY-11 208.30 3.22 GOLD 1503.8 1.20

GOLD 04 –JUN-11 22820 3.17 SILVER 4605.9 8.19

CRUDE OIL 19 –MAY-11 5047 0.58 COPPER 440 3.35

CRUDE 112.29 2.40

WEEKLY LOOSERS
NATURAL GAS 4.412 4.95
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change
USD/INR 44.18 -0.16
COPPER 30 –JUN-11 415.90 -5.53

LEAD 31 –MAY-11 112.80 -4.37

ZINC 31 –MAY-11 101.20 -4.93

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 Weekly Pivots

Weekly Report

Commodity 02nd May - 07th May 2011

Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Gold 24617.33 23553.33 23186.67 22489.33 22122.67 21425.33 20361.33

Silver 86233.33 78587.33 74968.67 70941.33 67322.67 63295.33 55649.33

Copper 476.47 449.47 432.68 422.47 405.68 418.97 368.47

Crude Oil 5304.00 5165.00 5106.00 5026.00 4967.00 4887.00 4748.00

Natural Gas 231.33 218.23 213.27 205.13 200.17 192.03 178.93

Lead 127.53 120.73 116.77 113.93 109.97 107.13 100.33

Zinc 115.43 108.93 105.07 102.43 98.57 95.93 89.43

Nickel 1284.00 1239.20 1220.80 1194.40 1176.00 1149.60 1104.80

Aluminum 127.72 124.82 123.68 121.92 120.78 119.02 116.12

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