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1. Preface
In 2001 Japan imported 54.1 million tons of LNG, which was slightly over half of the world’s
total LNG production of 100 million tons per year. About 60% of Japan’s LNG is stored in
aboveground tanks and the rest is stored in-ground tanks at LNG regasification terminals in Japan.
In-ground tanks have excellent merits; high safety, effective land utilization and not disrupting
scenery. On the other hand, in 1993, pre-stressed concrete (PC) was used for the first time in Japan
to construct a new aboveground LNG storage tank. Currently almost all aboveground tanks in Japan
are single containment, with structurally independent dikes. At present five PC tanks, with this new
design, are in operation in Japan, and some are under construction or in the planning stage. In
Europe and the United States aboveground PC tanks have been constructed since 1960s and was the
common tank design of the 1980s.
Presented here is a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of LNG aboveground tank designs
based on the past operating records of LNG regasification terminals, along with a conventional single
containment tank design. The assessment was conducted after choosing two aboveground tank
designs, among several, to study. One is the PC membrane tank without a structurally independent
dike. It has a high, calculated safety probability. This design, however, has not been constructed
anywhere in the world. The other is a Steel/PC double shell tank without a structurally independent
dike. This design has been constructed only in Japan. A Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) was also
conducted to compare both PC tank designs from the viewpoint of their global environmental impact.
Inner Shell
SS Membrane (9% Ni Steel)
GL GL
CS Outer shell
GL
Inner Shell
(9% Ni Steel Dike
RC Tank Body
or Al Alloy)
SS Membrane
GL
Withstanding
LNG Containment Prevention of Liquid Spread
LNG pressure
PC Membrane tank Primary Container Secondary Container
Steel/PC Double Shell Tank Primary Container Secondary Container
Single Containment Tank Primary Container Dike (Secondary Container)
In-ground Tank Primary Container Secondary Container and Earth
Table 1 Classification of the Functional Components of LNG tanks
35
34
20 21
15
14
12 PC Membrane Tank
10
Steel/PC Double Shell Tank
5
0
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000
Capacity (m3)
Figure 2 Comparison of Construction Period of LNG Tanks
OR
Shortcomings of design
Natural disasters Failure in plant operation Extra-ordinary events
and/or inspection
P1 P2 P3 P4
4.4.1. Rollover
Rollover occurs when four events occur simultaneously:
· liquids with different densities are loaded into a tank,
· unstable stratification occurs,
· failure of detection (temperature measurement) and intervention, and
· failure of pressure safety valves (PSVs).
Then, the past operating records are reflected in the probability of failure of PSVs.
4.4.2.Excessive Pressure in the Tank during an Unloading Operation
Excessive pressure occurs under conditions of:
· overpressure protection failure, and
· unloading operation ongoing.
Overpressure protection failure occurs under simultaneous conditions of:
· failure of PSVs
· failure to remove boil-off-gas, and
· failure of pressure control valve (PCV) to flare.
Failure to remove boil-off-gas occurs under condition either of:
· failure of first compressor and failure of take-over, or
· common cause failure of compressors.
Then the three probabilities: failure of PCV, failure of first compressor and failure of take-over,
and common cause failure of compressors are deduced from past operational records of the Tokyo
Gas LNG regasification terminals.
P3
OR
Excessive During an
Underpressure maintenance Overfilling
pressure intervention
OR
P28 P37 P38
During an
Rollover unloading
operation
AND AND
OR
P32 P34
Failure of first
Common cause
compressor and
of compressors
take-over
P35 P36
4.5. Results
Table 2 shows the probability of LNG leakage from each tank designs. QRA by FTA finds that
a PC membrane tank design (1X10-7 times/year) has the same safety level as the Steel/PC double shell
tank design (1X10-7 times /year) and that it has higher safety level than single containment tank without
a dike (3X10-5 times /year).
Among the top four events, extra-ordinary events and natural disasters exerted such large
influences (produced large leaks) that primary and secondary container would be simultaneously
damaged. Then little probability distinction is made between two PC tank designs. On the other
hand, shortcomings of design and/or inspection and failure in plant operations gave such smaller
impact (small leaks) that only one of two containers is damaged. Then LNG leaks must be
accompanied by outer wall damage besides inner shell harm. In the PC membrane tank design, the
probability of shortcoming of design and/or inspection is higher than that of Steel/PC double shell tank
design. The difference derives from the fact that the inner shell membrane is structurally incorporated
into the outer wall of a PC membrane tank, while it is structurally independent in the Steel/PC double
shell tank design. The probabilities difference, however, can be neglected because they are very low.
Therefore, it is considered that the safety level of PC membrane tank is equivalent to that of a Steel/PC
double shell tank.
For both the PC membrane and the Steel/PC double shell, natural disasters, dominated by
floods, are the critical events, while for a single containment tank, shortcomings of design and/or
inspection, dominated by welding failure, is critical. This difference is derived from tank structure
features. In the case of leakage from inner shell, LNG can be confined by PC outer wall for both the
PC membrane tank and for the Steel/PC double shell tank, while it would be spread out around a
compromised single containment tank without a dike.
It should be noted, however, for a single containment tank design with a structurally
independent dike around the tank that LNG spilled, due to loss of primary container is held within a dike.
Then the probability of LNG spill due to shortcomings of design and/or inspection dominated by welding
failure (3X10-5 times /year) is greatly reduced (3X10-9 times /year) because LNG leakage is not caused
without simultaneous damage of a dike. Thus, the existence of a dike makes the critical events of
LNG spill over a dike (secondary container) replace shortcomings of design and/or inspection with
natural disasters dominated by floods. Furthermore the final probability of a LNG spill is largely
decreased (5X10-7 times /year). Therefore the tank design has the nearly same safety level as the
other two tank designs, which shows us the significance of a dike for the single containment tank
design.
The minimum allowable safety level is set as 1X10-6 times /year by reference to nuclear power
plant in the U.S. and land-use planning in the vicinity of major industrial hazard in U.K. Then, in order
to compare with the above allowable level, risks obtained for a member of public originally have to be
studied with considering hazardous impacts after LNG spill. However, hazardous impacts are not
described because the QRA is developed in this paper to clarify the relative safety differences among
several tank designs. In the strict sense probability of risks to an individual is obviously smaller than
the analyzed probabilities, since LNG spill does not necessarily cause an actual hazard to public.
However it is an adequate approach to assume that probability of risks to an individual is equivalent to
LNG spill probability because it is quite a large hazard. A PC membrane tank and the Steel/PC double
shell tank, even without structurally independent dike, can satisfy the required level (as can a single
containment tank with dike). The PC membrane tank design has the same safety level as the
Steel/PC double shell, and has a little higher level than a single containment tank with a dike. These
results show that the structural dependence of the inner shell membrane on secondary container (PC
outer wall) is little significant from the viewpoints of safety considerations.
5.3.2. Manufacturing
Emission of greenhouse gas is computed by an inventory analysis based on an analysis of the
input-output specification, namely inventory, describing input material, energy, product and waste
during the manufacturing process.
5.3.4. Construction
Emission of greenhouse gas is neglected in this stage since there should be smaller energy
consumed by the construction machinery used to construct the two designs. Since time required for
the construction is less for a PC membrane tank, in a more complete analysis, this would show up also.
5.3.5. Operation
No relative distinction is made in this stage because insulation thickness is designed so that the
tanks have the same boil-off gas (BOG) rate. Therefore, emission of greenhouse gas is also
neglected in this stage.
Considering effect
t-CO2 - 38,534.40 -
of HCFC-141b
Summation [3] t-CO2 23,354.16 47,945.90 9,411.50
Summation [1] shows greenhouse gas emission from extraction/mining stage through the
manufacturing stage. This result does not include the environmental impact such as disposal of the
HCFC-141b, contained in the conventional PUF. The numbers for the conventional PUF and CO2
foamed PUF are the same because the same amount of CO2-equivalent is embodied in the unfoamed
components for the PUF.
Next summation [2] shows greenhouse gas emission from the beginning up through the
transporting stage. Here we also see that the construction of a Steel/PC double shell tank would emit
more greenhouse gas than the construction of a PC membrane tank. It is quantitatively proved that
emissions of PC membrane tank are smaller. There was no difference at all between PC membrane
tank with conventional PUF and with state-of-the-art PUF because the HCFC-141b, is still stabilized in
the PUF.
Only the emission of HCFC-141b, in its disposal stage, is considered in summation [3]. The
environmental impact of PC membrane tank (with conventional PUF) is now larger than that of
Steel/PC double shell tank. It is possible, however, to minimize greenhouse gas emission by adopting
the CO2 foamed PUF. Thus the environmental impact of a PC membrane tank is now smaller again.
When CO2 foamed PUF is used, the environmental impact is only 48.7% of the Steel/PC tank and
19.6% of a PC membrane tank made with conventional PUF.
The above LCA calculation shows that when CO2 foamed PUF is used, greenhouse gas
emission of PC membrane tank (total embodied CO2 and CO2 equivalent for the component materials)
is smaller than the other designs. Moreover the use of CO2 foamed PUF has enabled Tokyo Gas to
eliminate the potential risk of greatly increased greenhouse gas emissions during the disposal stage.
PC membrane tank with CO2 foamed PUF is ranked as an environmental-friendly LNG facility.
6. Conclusion
The high safety level of the PC membrane tank design and Steel/PC double shell tank design
have been proven (even without a structurally independent dike) by a Quantitative Risk Assessment
using FTA, based on the past operating records of LNG regasification terminals. Also the LCA
clarifies the inherently low environmental impact of a PC membrane tank with the CO2 foamed PUF
developed by Tokyo Gas.
From now on, in the century of the environment, PC membrane tank will join the mainstream of
LNG aboveground storage tank design, both in Japan and abroad, from the viewpoints of higher safety,
higher reliability, lower cost, and their shorter construction times.
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