l Global Research l

Thermal Coal Weekly | 17:45 GMT 19 April 2011

9th Coaltrans China conference note

 China’s domestic coal prices reach a four-month high; we expect momentum further rise later in Q2
 China’s coal-fired generation is set to grow by 8.5% y/y through 2015
 Indonesia expects domestic consumption to account for 19.3% of its 2011 output, but 54% by 2025

Coal scorecard summary (see page 2 for a detailed version)

Factor Outlook Comments

Short-run outlook -0.8 Prices should fall from recent highs as demand weakens and supply looks robust
Demand -0.6 Loss of coal capacity in Japan should keep demand in check
Supply -0.9 Global supply response was strong in March
Freight, railway & inventory -0.8 Port bottleneck improves but global stocks remain relatively tight
(-2 = very bearish, -1 = bearish, 0 = neutral, +1 = bullish, +2 = very bullish) Source: Standard Chartered Research

Chart of the week – Chinese domestic thermal coal prices (RMB/t)

900 Raymond Chan, +65 6596 8650
Raymond.Ky.Chan@sc.com
850

800

750

700

650

600
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11
Market pricing (USD/t)
Source: Sxcoal, Standard Chartered Research  3m History  Last Min Max

API4* 124.36 114.89 124.74

Summary of the week and outlook
API2* 128.11 116.55 129.49
Domestic coal prices in China increased further in the past two weeks to reach a
NewC* 122.80 120.75 132.50
four-month high. Coal with basis 6,000kcal was priced at RMB 840/t and that with
China QHD 128.66 125.81 128.66
basis 5,500kcal was priced at RMB 790/t as of Friday 15 April. The market expects
Indo sub-bit 83.55 68.05 95.70
further strength as players think Chinese utilities are importing coal earlier than usual
GER Y1 dark/spark 8.51 3.46 10.79
to prepare for peak summer demand.
RB-Rott** 9.50 8.55 10.50

Bolivar-Rott** 9.20 8.15 11.00

While we need the most up-to-date power plant inventory figures from sxcoal to
NSW-Japan** 11.25 8.95 11.5
better gauge stock positions, we do not rule out the possibility that Chinese utilities
RB-Korea** 13.35 10.95 13.7
are shopping early this season given that power plant inventories remained tight, at
Unit for GER dark/spark spread in EUR/MWh
13 days of consumption, as of 20 March. Inventory at Qinhuangdao port is also at a *Data from McCloskey and is updated every Friday
nine-month low. Strong thermal power-generation data for March released last week **Indicative freight rates from SSY

also argues for higher domestic prices. That said, we expect Chinese import demand
to be satisfied by Indonesia’s lower-CV coal, given the small differential between Our forecasts (USD/t, period average)
Q2-11 Q3-11 2011
Chinese and Australian prices.
API2 114 115 114
API4 111 114 112
The recent Coaltrans conference in Beijing reinforced the constructive picture of globalCOAL NEWC 121 126 122

China’s coal industry development. Coal-fired power capacity is set to grow 8.5% y/y Source: Standard Chartered Research

through 2015, although coal may make up a smaller portion of China’s energy mix. It
also provided an update on consolidation and modernisation of coal mines in major
producing provinces. Interestingly, Indonesia expects an aggressive increase in
domestic coal consumption, but minimal growth in exports over the next 15 years.

Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix

All rights reserved. Standard Chartered Bank 2011 research.standardchartered.com
Coal Weekly

Coal scorecard
Factor Outlook Weight Comments

Short-run outlook -0.8 100% Prices should fall from recent highs as demand weakens and supply looks robust

Demand -0.6 35% Loss of coal capacity in Japan should keep demand in check

Japan’s March thermal power generation posted a surprise m/m increase but coal
Pacific Basin 55% consumption has been hurt by damaged facilities; we expect coal burn to remain
-0.5 sluggish in the months ahead. China’s March thermal electricity generation expanded
12.1% y/y but is overshadowed by strong hydro-power output (21.3% y/y growth)

Atlantic Basin 25% The German Chancellor’s comments on 15 April on the shift away from nuclear energy
0.0 imply a more bullish outlook for coal consumption in the long term

Crude oil prices fell 4-6% from the peak on 8 April, which should weigh on the whole
Substitutes -1.5 20% energy complex, including coal; German Q1 dark-spark spreads have also retreated
from their highs of early April

Supply -0.9 30% Global supply response was strong in March

China 25% China’s March raw coal production recorded robust growth of 11.6% m/m to reach
-1.5 276.3mt. Q1 production was 8.3% above a year-ago level

India 0.0 15% No significant developments

Australia, Indonesia 35% Recent dry weather has improved coal movement in Queensland, but shipping sources
-0.5 still estimate coal output running at not more than 60% capacity

South Africa, Russia’s March production improved by 7% from the previous month to 27.7mt;
-1.5 25%
Colombia, Russia Colombia Q1 exports also rose 5.5% versus last year to reach 16.47mt

Freight, railway and

-0.8 35% Port bottleneck improves but global stocks remain relatively tight
inventory

Railway and port Newcastle port shipped 1.95mt for the week ending 18 April and 1.96mt for the week
-1.5 60% ending 11 April, 101.6mt annualised. This is on track to meet the full-year target of
bottlenecks
103.4mt and implies healthy supplies from Newcastle port thus far

Indian power plant stock levels have improved, with only 12 plants reporting critical stock
Global power plant levels of less than four days, compared with the YTD average of 16 plants; China,
0.0 15%
inventories however, should still be drawing down stocks slowly at this time of the year, despite talk
of stock replenishment

Freight rates 15% Freight markets were mixed over the past two weeks except the C7 route, which fell
-0.5
USD 1.25/t to USD 9.20/t, lowering the delivered cost of Colombian coal

Port inventories 10% Stocks at Europe’s ARA remain close to their three-year low, despite a slight rebound
1.5
last week; but stocks at QHD China have fallen to a nine-month low

(-2 = very bearish, -1 = bearish, 0 = neutral, +1 = bullish, +2 = very bullish) Source: Standard Chartered Research

Scoreboard explanation:
The short-run outlook score is a function of coal demand (contributing 35%), supply (30%) and freight, railway and inventory (35%). In turn, each of these factors is
further broken down into contributing factors and weights. The above scores are derived based on the outlook of the Standard Chartered Bank analysts.
.

GR11MA | 19 April 2011 2

Coal Weekly
Market expects a further increase
in Chinese domestic prices
Near-term, Chinese coal
requirements are likely to be met
by Indonesia
Coal-fired generation should
continue to dominate China’s
energy mix in the medium term
GR11MA | 19 April 2011
Market commentary and outlook
Chinese domestic prices rise to a four-month high
International thermal coal markets fell marginally across the board last week as wider
energy markets corrected, led by a 2.5% w/w fall in Brent crude prices. The market
focus turned to the Chinese domestic markets, where prices increased further to a
four-month high. Coal with basis 6,000kcal was priced at RMB 840/t and that with
basis 5,500kcal was priced at RMB 790/t as of Friday 15 April. The market expects
Chinese domestic prices to rise as players think Chinese utilities are importing coal
(mainly Indonesia low-CV coal) earlier than usual to prepare for peak summer
demand.
While we are awaiting the most up-to-date power plant inventory figures from sxcoal
to confirm whether Chinese utilities are shopping early this season, we do not rule
out the possibly, given that power plant inventories have fallen since February and
were tight, at 13 days of consumption, as of 20 March. Domestic prices are likely to
be supported at current levels, and trend higher in the second half of Q2 when
utilities ramp up stock-replenishment efforts . Meanwhile, inventory at Qinhuangdao
port (Chart 7) has continued to fall, to 5.9 million tonnes (mt), the lowest level in nine
months. The latest thermal electricity generation figures released by China Economic
Information Network (Chart 9) also show a 12.1% y/y increase. The strong 21% y/y
growth in hydro-power output continues to raise questions about thermal power
requirements. That said, any increase in China’s domestic prices would need to be
substantial to make imports from Australia economical, given the small differential
between Chinese and international prices (Chart 6). Therefore, in the short term
China’s import requirements are likely to be satisfied by Indonesia.
Coaltrans China Conference update
The 9th Coaltrans China conference in Beijing last week enabled us to gauge the
short- to medium-term outlook for China’s coal industry. Generally, short-term
optimism remains and Chinese domestic prices are set to increase as utilities appear
to be stocking up earlier than normal this year to prepare for peak summer demand.
However, the outlook for Chinese imports in 2011 looks bearish, as the arbitrage
window with international coal (particularly the Newcastle FOB benchmark) remains
closed for most of the year.
Looking ahead, China’s coal industry development remains constructive. Coal-fired
power capacity is set to grow at 8.5% y/y through 2015, although coal may make up
a smaller portion of the country’s energy mix. Consolidation and modernisation of
coal mines is almost complete in Shanxi, but other producing provinces, such as
Shaanxi and Xinjiang, are rapidly emerging. Interestingly, Indonesia forecasts
minimal export growth over the next 15 years amid expectations of increased
domestic coal requirements, implying increased competition for Indonesian coal in
the longer run.
Coal-fired power capacity is set to grow further, but coal may represent
a smaller portion of China’s energy mix by 2015
According to the China Electricity Council, China’s total installed electricity capacity is
889 million kilowatts, of which 676 million kilowatts capacity is from coal-fired units,
as of end October 2010. This is 2.5 times higher the 266 million kilowatts capacity in
2002. Efficiency has improved – average coal consumption of coal-fired power units
(efficiency) has fallen steadily to 334g/kWh in late 2010, from 383g/kWh in 2002.
3
Coal Weekly
Shanxi’s consolidation is probably
close to completion
Xinjiang officials expect 430mt of
output by 2015
GR11MA | 19 April 2011
With accelerated industrialisation, electricity demand is set to increase further in the
next five years.
One local consultancy we met in Beijing expects coal to make up only 68% of China’s
energy mix in 2015, from 74.6% in 2009; however, it believes coal-fired generation
will still play a dominant role in China’s energy mix. In our view, there are two major
hurdles to overcome in the development of coal-fired power units. First, China has
set carbon intensity targets. It wants to reduce carbon intensity by 40-45% by 2020
compared with 2005 and wants non-fossil-fuel consumption to make up 11.4% of the
energy mix by 2015 and 15% by 2020. Although emission levels can be controlled
through advanced technologies such as carbon capture and storage, these
technologies remain at a relatively early stage of development. Water shortage is
another issue, especially in large coal bases, such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and
Shaanxi. Nevertheless, installed capacity is set to increase by 2015. A speaker from
a major state-owned power generation enterprise projected an 8.5% y/y increase in
power-generation capacity from 2010 to 5.99-6.57 billion kilowatt hours by 2015.
Power-generation efficiency is also set to improve, to about 330g/kWh.
Consolidation of Shanxi’s coal enterprises
Thanks to continuous efforts to consolidate and restructure coal enterprises in
Shanxi, the industry has improved significantly in terms of mechanisation, information
management and modernisation. More organised mining and a better safety
performance have reinforced Shanxi’s status as an important energy base in China.
By the end of 2010, the number of mines had been reduced to 1,053, 70% of which
have annual output of more than 900 thousand metric tonnes (kt). Average single
mine output capacity has risen to 1 million metric tonnes (mt) from 300kt per year
after applying mechanised mining methods to all existing mines. The number of coal
companies has also been reduced from more than 2,200 in 2008 to 130. Tax revenue
in 2010 increased by 35.2% y/y to RMB 113.6bn. These developments are a result of
the consolidation goals set by the authorities for coal enterprises in Shanxi, Shaanxi,
and Inner Mongolia. We think they are healthy for China’s long-term production, and
Shanxi’s consolidation is probably close to completion. China’s recent output figures
remain healthy, with the March figure reaching 276.3mt, according to the China Coal
Industry Association. This is an 8.3% improvement in Q1 production versus last year.
Xinjiang has huge potential as a major coal-producing region but
hurdles must be overcome
Although Xinjiang is currently only exploiting 11% of its coal reserves, compared with
the national average of 21%, the province does have the largest coal reserves in
China, implying its huge potential to become a strategic producing province. It has an
estimated 2.19 trillion metric tonnes of coal reserves, accounting for 38% of China’s
total 5.58 trillion metric tonnes of reserves. Inner Mongolia comes second with 1.23
trillion (22%) and Shanxi is third with 665 million metric tonnes (12%).
According to the Deputy Director-General of Xinjiang Bureau of Coal Industry,
Xinjiang aims to become China’s most important coal development and utilisation
base, and also the most important coal-fired power generation and chemical base in
China. By 2015, it expects to ramp up output to 430mt and expand coal-fired power
generation capacity to 49 million kw. Thus far, mine projects are under construction
and 6,779km of railway tracks have been laid, equivalent to 5% of the total rail length
in China. However, there are hurdles to be overcome before Xinjiang can become a
4
Coal Weekly

major supplier of domestic coal, including poor industrial infrastructure, inadequate

labour supply and underdeveloped transportation links.

Development of Shaanxi’s coal industry

Shaanxi expects 600mt per year of
output by 2015
Shaanxi ranks fourth in terms of reserves in China, after Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and
Shanxi. However, Shaanxi’s favourable location right in the middle of China makes it
an important energy and chemical base. According to Shaanxi Development and
Reform Commission, the province produced 361mt of coal in 2010, ranked third in
China, with more than 200mt transported out of Shaanxi. Currently, it continues to
develop large mines strategically, with 70% of its mines producing more than 1.2mt of
coal a year. Since 2002, no mines with output capacity under 300kt per year have
been approved. As in Xinjiang, integration of coal production and power generation is
key. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-15), Shaanxi will continue to
transform the industry by building large and efficient coal bases, eliminating outdated
capacity and improving mine safety. Its output capacity is expected to reach 600mt
per year by 2015, with large coal bases accounting for 90%.

Indonesia expects substantial growth in domestic coal requirements in

the next 15 years but minimal export growth
As the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, Indonesia produced 325mt and exported
265mt of thermal coal in 2010, according to the Indonesian Coal Mining Association
(ICMA). Of the 265mt exported, 42.9mt went to China, 43.4mt went to India and
35.8mt went to Japan. Concerns remain about the anticipated growth of domestic
demand and how this will compete with Chinese import requirements. As of 2010,
Indonesia consumed 60mt of coal domestically, i.e. 18% of its total production.

Indonesia expects substantial
growth in domestic coal
requirements, and little growth in
exports
With plans to increase electricity generation capacity by 10GW in the next two years,
the ICMA expects domestic sales to be around 63-69mt. It also forecasts production
to grow to 335-350mt (a 5% increase y/y), therefore implying domestic sales will
account for 19.3% of production (a slight increase from 18% in 2010). Currently, the
government requires that producers reserve 24% of production for domestic
consumers but Indonesia expects substantial growth in local consumption in the next
15 years. The ICMA has quoted a government target for primary energy mix that
requires domestic sales to be 37% of total production in 2015, 44% in 2020 and 54%
in 2025. Although domestic requirements will ultimately depend on economic growth,
we note that the ICMA expects exports to remain range-bound at 240-260mt in 2011-
25 (see Table 1).

Freight update
Shipbroker BRS has provided an update on the freight market. It concludes that more
than 150 million deadweight tonnes (dwt) are on order or expected to be delivered in
2011, compared with 105mn dwt in 2010. Cancellations remain marginal, at 13% in
2011, versus 25.8% in 2010. Newbuild prices have continued to fall and are now at
their lowest level since January 2008. The market looks set to be oversupplied for at
least the rest of this year, given the substantial volume of scheduled deliveries.

Table 1: Indonesia’s coal production, export and domestic sales estimates up to 2025
Million metric tonnes
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025
Production 190 221 240 283 325 398 414 560
Export 145 159 191 230 265 250 240 260
Domestic 46 63 49 53 60 148 184 300
Source: Indonesian Coal Mining Association

GR11MA | 19 April 2011 5

Coal Weekly

Chart 1: Thermal coal prices Chart 2: Indonesian sub-bituminous - basis 4,900kcal

USD/t NAR, FOB USD/t
230
API 2 CIF 120
210
190 100

170 80
150 Indonesia sub-bit FOB
60
130 QHD
110 40
90
20
70 New castle
API 4 FOB 0
50
May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

Sources: McCloskey, sxcoal, Standard Chartered Research Sources: McCloskey, Standard Chartered Research

Chart 3: Thermal coal freight rates Chart 4: German dark-spark spreads

USD/t EUR/MWh

80 12
10 Dark-Spark spread (Q1)
70 New South Wales - Japan
8
60 6
50 4
C4 Richards Bay- 2
40 Rotterdam 0
30 -2 Dark-Spark spread (Y1)

20 -4
-6
10 C7 Bolivar-Rotterdam
-8
0 -10
Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11

Sources: SSY, Standard Chartered Research Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Research

Chart 5: China’s thermal coal trade (net imports) Chart 6: China and international coal price differential
Mn tonnes USD/t

12 50
China steam coal net imports 40
10 QHD-Newcastle differential
30
8
20
6 10
4 0
2 -10
-20
0
-30
-2 -40
-4 -50
-6 -60
Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11

Sources: McCloskey, Standard Chartered Research Sources: McCloskey, sxcoal, Standard Chartered Research

GR11MA | 19 April 2011 6

Coal Weekly

Chart 7: China Qinhuangdao weekly price and inventory Chart 8: China’s raw coal production
USD/t and mn tonnes Mn tonnes

160 10 450
QHD price, 6000kcal 9 400
140
350 China raw coal production
8
120 300
7
250
100 6 200
5 150
80
4 100
60 QHD inventory (RHS) 50
3
0
40 2
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

Sources: Sxcoal, Standard Chartered Research Sources: Sxcoal, Standard Chartered Research

Chart 9: China’s power generation (thermal and hydro) Chart 10: India’s power generation (thermal and hydro)
Bn kWh GWH

350 90 65 16

80 Thermal 14
China Hydro electricity output (RHS) 60
300 70 12
60 55 10
50 8
250
40 50 6
Hydro (RHS)
30 4
200 45
China Thermal electricity output 20 2
10 40 0
150 0 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

Sources: China Economic Information Network, Standard Chartered Sources: Central Electricity Authority, Standard Chartered Research
Research

Chart 11: India thermal plant stock positions Chart 12: Japan’s power generation (thermal and nuclear)
No of days Bn kWh

40 100 60
Total Power Generation
35 Critical coal stocks < 7 days 95
50
30 90 Thermal (RHS)
40
25 85

20 80 30
Critical coal stocks < 4 days
75
15 20
Nuclear (RHS)
70
10
10
65
5
60 0
0
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11

Sources: Central Electricity Authority, Standard Chartered Research Sources: Information Plaza of Electricity, Standard Chartered
Research

GR11MA | 19 April 2011 7

Coal Weekly

Chart 13: Richards Bay port operations Chart 14: Newcastle port operations
Mn tonnes and no of vessels Mn tonnes and no of days

8 90 3.0 18
Shipping vessels (RHS)
80
16
7 70 Average waiting time (RHS)
2.5
60 14
6
50
2.0 12
40
5
30 10
1.5 Coal shipped
4 20
8
Coal shipped 10
3 0 1.0 6
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-10 Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11 Feb-11

Sources: Richards Bay Coal Terminal, Standard Chartered Research Sources: Newcastle Port Corporation, Standard Chartered Research

GR11MA | 19 April 2011 8

Coal Weekly

Table 1: Standard Chartered forecasts (USD/t)

Q1-11A Q2-11 vs fw d Q3-11 vs fw d Q4-11 vs fw d Q1-12 vs fw d 2010A 2011 vs fw d 2012 vs fw d
Coal
API2 109 114 -12% 115 -11% 119 -9% 122 -7% 92 114 -11% 125 -5%
API4 105 111 -11% 114 -10% 119 -6% 123 -3% 92 112 -10% 126 0%
globalCOAL NEWC 108 121 -2% 126 -1% 131 3% 134 4% 103 122 -3% 141 9%
Source: Standard Chartered Research

Table 2: Supply and demand table for seaborne traded thermal coal (million metric tonnes)
Forecasts in BLUE (RED) indicate upward (downward) revision
2009 2010 F 2011 F
mt mt y/y % mt y/y %
Total Atlantic dem and 204.93 183.83 -10.30% 195.93 6.58%
of which:
Germany 27.6 29.1 5.43% 30.6 5.15%
UK 30.96 14.96 -51.68% 19.96 33.42%
US 19.39 14.39 -25.79% 14.39 0.00%

Total Pacific dem and 433.39 518.24 19.58% 548.54 5.85%

of which:
China 62.12 102.12 64.39% 112.12 9.79%
India 60.06 75.06 24.98% 90.06 19.98%
Japan 113.02 123.52 9.29% 121.52 -1.62%
South Korea 83.24 90.24 8.41% 90.24 0.00%
Taiw an 48.62 52.12 7.20% 54.62 4.80%

Total dem and 638.32 702.07 9.99% 744.47 6.04%

Pacific/total dem and 67.90% 73.82% - 73.68% -

Total supply 632.34 692.84 9.57% 732.84 5.77%

of which:
Australia 139.04 139.04 0.00% 144.04 3.60%
Colombia 63.43 70.43 11.04% 71.43 1.42%
Indonesia 233.5 288.5 23.55% 309.5 7.28%
Russia 82.85 79.85 -3.62% 86.35 8.14%
South Africa 66.3 69.3 4.52% 73.3 5.77%
United States (excl. exports to
Canada) 12.2 16.6 36.07% 21.6 30.12%

Notional balance -5.98 -9.23 - -11.63 -

Note: McCloskey figures are quoted above as our reference point Sources: McCloskey, Standard Chartered Research

GR11MA | 19 April 2011 9

Coal Weekly

Table 3: Standard Chartered Price Monitor

Exch. Units Latest Net change % change 52-wk
19/04/11 1D 1W 1M YTD 1Y 1D 1W 1M YTD 1Y High Low
Crude oil (nr future)
WTI NYM USD/bbl. 106 -1 -0 5 15 25 -1 -0 5 16 30 113 64
IPE Brent ICE USD/bbl. 121 -1 -0 7 26 36 -1 -0 6 27 43 127 68
Dubai DME USD/bbl. 115 -2 0 7 26 32 -1 0 7 29 39 119 68
Oil products (nr future)
Dubai fuel oil DGC USD/MT 629 2 -12 49 168 199 0 -2 9 37 46 641 359
Gasoil ICE USD/MT 1,002 -3 -48 30 240 315 -0 -5 3 31 46 1,065 586
Coal
API 4 FOB N/A USD/MT 125 0 6 5 37 44 0 5 5 43 54 125 86
API 2 CIF N/A USD/MT 128 -2 -3 -0 2 48 -1 -2 -0 2 60 133 80
Base metals (LME, 3M)
Aluminium LME USD/MT 2,676 2 16 116 206 307 0 1 5 8 13 2,720 1,828
Copper LME USD/MT 9,250 25 -376 -261 -351 1,555 0 -4 -3 -4 20 10,190 6,038
Lead LME USD/MT 2,552 24 -173 -125 2 316 1 -6 -5 0 14 2,904 1,535
Nickel LME USD/MT 25,371 -134 -1,329 -1,379 621 -1,329 -1 -5 -5 3 -5 29,425 17,375
Tin LME USD/MT 32,410 60 -140 3,010 5,510 13,605 0 -0 10 20 72 33,600 15,500
Zinc LME USD/MT 2,329 3 -141 4 -126 -62 0 -6 0 -5 -3 2,639 1,577
Precious metals (nr future)
Gold CMX USD/t oz. 1,492 -1 39 76 70 356 -0 3 5 5 31 1,497 1,124
Silver CMX USD/t oz. 43 0 3 8 12 25 1 8 23 40 144 44 17
Platinum NYM USD/t oz. 1,786 -12 -14 62 12 95 -1 -1 4 1 6 1,869 1,446
Palladium NYM USD/t oz. 737 -2 -33 6 -66 203 -0 -4 1 -8 38 861 391
Softs (nr future)
Cocoa (NY) NYB USD/MT 3,127 -112 105 0 92 162 -3 3 0 3 5 3,826 2,579
Cocoa (London) LIF GBP/MT 1,927 -45 13 -76 -90 -253 -2 1 -4 -4 -12 2,732 1,770
Coffee (NY) NYB USd/lb. 285 1 11 8 45 156 0 4 3 19 121 295 129
Coffee (London) LIF USD/MT 2,414 -48 -13 -136 332 1,069 -2 -1 -5 16 79 2,593 1,239
Sugar - raw (NYBOT, No.11) NYB USd/lb. 24 -0 -1 -3 -8 7 -0 -5 -12 -24 44 36 13
Sugar - white (LIFFE, No.5) LIF USD/MT 622 -11 -81 -89 -156 136 -2 -12 -12 -20 28 857 421
Fibres (nr future)
Cotton NYB USd/lb. 193 -3 -6 -6 49 114 -2 -3 -3 34 142 227 76
Grains & oilseeds (nr future)
Corn CBT USd/bu. 753 2 1 70 124 406 0 0 10 20 117 784 325
Rice CBT USD/cwt 14 -0 0 -0 -0 1 -0 2 -0 -3 8 16 9
Soybeans CBT USd/bu. 1,339 -6 9 -24 -55 362 -0 1 -2 -4 37 1,456 926
Wheat CBT USd/bu. 778 3 18 55 -17 310 0 2 8 -2 66 893 426
Edible oils (nr future)
Palm oil MDE MYR/MT 3,272 -27 -148 -227 -542 782 -1 -4 -6 -14 31 4,000 2,340
Soybean oil CBT USd/lb. 57 -0 -0 1 -1 18 -1 -0 2 -1 47 60 36
Sources: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered Research

GR11MA | 19 April 2011 10

Coal Weekly

Disclosures Appendix

Analyst Certification Disclosure:

The research analyst or analysts responsible for the content of this research report certify that: (1) the views expressed an d attributed to the research analyst or
analysts in the research report accurately reflect their personal opinion(s) about the subject securities and issuers and/or other subject matter as appropriate; and,
(2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. On a
general basis, the efficacy of recommendations is a factor in the performance appraisals of analysts.

Global Disclaimer:
Standard Chartered Bank and or its affiliates ("SCB”) makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express, implied or statutory regarding this document or any
information contained or referred to on the document.
The information in this document is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute any offer, recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into
any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, nor does it constitute any prediction of likely future movements in rates or prices, or represent
that any such future movements will not exceed those shown in any illustration. Users of this document should seek advice regarding the appropriateness of
investing in any securities, financial instruments or investment strategies referred to on this document and should understand that statements regarding future
prospects may not be realised. Opinions, projections and estimates are subject to change without notice.
The value and income of any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this document can fall as well as rise and an investor may get back less than
invested. Foreign-currency denominated securities and financial instruments are subject to fluctuation in exchange rates that could have a positive or adverse effect
on the value, price or income of such securities and financial instruments. Past performance is not indicative of comparable future results and no representation or
warranty is made regarding future performance.
SCB is not a legal or tax adviser, and is not purporting to provide legal or tax advice. Independent legal and/or tax advice should be sought for any queries relating to
the legal or tax implications of any investment.
SCB, and/or a connected company, may have a position in any of the instruments or currencies mentioned in this document. SCB and/or a connected company may
at any time, to the extent permitted by applicable law and/or regulation, be long or short any securities or financial instruments referred to in this document or have a
material interest in any such securities or related investment, or may be the only market maker in relation to such investments, or provide, or have provided advice,
investment banking or other services, to issuers of such investments.
SCB has in place policies and procedures and physical information walls between its Research Department and differing public and private business functions to help
ensure confidential information, including ‘inside’ information is not publicly disclosed unless in line with its policies and procedures and the rules of its regulators.
You are advised to make your own independent judgment with respect to any matter contained herein.
SCB accepts no liability and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly (including special, inc idental or consequential loss or damage) from
your use of this document, howsoever arising, and including any loss, damage or expense arising from, but not limited to, any defect, error, imperfection, fault,
mistake or inaccuracy with this document, its contents or associated services, or due to any unavailability of the document or any part thereof or any contents or
associated services.

If you are receiving this document in any of the countries listed below, please note the following:
United Kingdom: SCB is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). T his communication is not directed at Retail
Clients in the European Economic Area as defined by Directive 2004/39/EC. Nothing in this document constitutes a personal recommendation or investment advice
as defined by Directive 2004/39/EC. Australia: The Australian Financial Services License for SCB is License No: 246833 with the following Australian Registered
Business Number (ARBN: 097571778). Australian investors should note that this document was prepared for wholesale investors only (as defined by Australian
Corporations legislation). China: This document is being distributed in China by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (China) Limited which is mainly
regulated by China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), and People’s Bank of China (PBoC). Hong Kong:
This document is being distributed in Hong Kong by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Limited which is regulated by the Hong Kong
Monetary Authority. Japan: This document is being distributed to Specified Investors, as defined by the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan (FIEL),
for information only and not for the purpose of soliciting any Financial Instruments Transactions as defined by the FIEL or any Specified Deposits, etc. as defined by
the Banking Law of Japan. Singapore: This document is being distributed in Singapore by SCB Singapore branch, only to accredited investors, expert investors or
institutional investors, as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. Recipients in Singapore should contact SCB Singapore branch in
relation to any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. South Africa: SCB is licensed as a Financial Services Provider in terms of Section 8 of the
Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 37 of 2002. SCB is a Registered Credit provider in terms of the National Credit Act 34 of 2005 under registration
number NCRCP4. UAE (DIFC): SCB is regulated in the Dubai International Financial Centre by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. This document is intended
for use only by Professional Clients and should not be relied upon by or be distributed to Retail Clients. United States: Except for any documents relating to foreign
exchange, FX or global FX, Rates or Commodities, distribution of this document in the United States or to US persons is intended to be solely to major institutional
investors as defined in Rule 15a-6(a)(2) under the US Securities Act of 1934. All US persons that receive this document by their acceptance thereof represent and
agree that they are a major institutional investor and understand the risks involved in executing transactions in securities. Any US recipient of this document wanting
additional information or to effect any transaction in any security or financial instrument mentioned herein, must do so by contacting a registered represent ative of
Standard Chartered Securities (North America) Inc., 1 Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010, US, tel + 1 212 667 0700. WE DO NOT OFFER OR SELL
SECURITIES TO U.S. PERSONS UNLESS EITHER (A) THOSE SECURITIES ARE REGISTERED FOR SALE WITH THE U.S. SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE
COMMISSION AND WITH ALL APPROPRIATE U.S. STATE AUTHORITIES; OR (B) THE SECURITIES OR THE SPECIFIC TRANSACTION QUALIFY FOR AN
EXEMPTION UNDER THE U.S. FEDERAL AND STATE SECURITIES LAWS NOR DO WE OFFER OR SELL SECURITIES TO U.S. PERSONS UNLESS (i) WE,
OUR AFFILIATED COMPANY AND THE APPROPRIATE PERSONNEL ARE PROPERLY REGISTERED OR LICENSED TO CONDUCT BUSINESS; OR (ii) WE,
OUR AFFILIATED COMPANY AND THE APPROPRIATE PERSONNEL QUALIFY FOR EXEMPTIONS UNDER APPLICABLE U.S. FEDERAL AND STATE LAWS.

Copyright: Standard Chartered Bank 2011. Copyright in all materials, text, articles and information contained herein is the property of, and may only be reproduced
with permission of an authorised signatory of, Standard Chartered Bank. Copyright in materials created by third parties and the rights under copyright of such parties
are hereby acknowledged. Copyright in all other materials not belonging to third parties and copyright in these materials as a compilation vests and shall remain at
all times copyright of Standard Chartered Bank and should not be reproduced or used except for business purposes on behalf of Standard Chartered Bank or save
with the express prior written consent of an authorised signatory of Standard Chartered Bank. All rights reserved. © Standard Chartered Bank 2011.

Document approved by Data available as of Document is released at

Helen Henton 17:45 GMT 19 April 2011 17:45 GMT 19 April 2011
Head of Environment and Energy Research

GR11MA | 19 April 2011 11