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example, a teacher might be an especially good or bad fit for a particular group of students. But despite
these normal fluctuations and the uncertainty inherent in any measure, relatively few teachers who
earn top value-added scores early in their careers go on to earn bottom scores later, and vice-versa. In
fact, a recent study showed that value-added is as reliable as real-world measures of performance in
many other professions, including batting averages in baseball.
͞Complex value-added models typically develop their estimates of students͛ achievement using multiple
prior test scores ͙ [and] include[s] other school or student factors in an attempt to more reliably
estimate the influence of educators on student learning.
Complex value-added models employ more sophisticated statistical approaches to minimize the effect
of external factors and improve the reliability of their estimates. áhe most sophisticated models apply
strategies to handle missing student test data, measurement error associated with the tests, multiple
educators sharing instructional responsibility and many other factors in an attempt to produce the most
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reliable estimates of effectiveness. áhese models regularly produce information about the confidence in
the value-added estimate to better inform conclusions that can be made from the data.͟ (P. 6)
áhe report identifies 7 key considerations in the selection of a growth model. áhese are: (1) Intended
uses; (2) Inputs for analysis; (3) Measurement error and uncertainty; (4) uesults and outputs; (5)
Communications, training and support; (6) Experience, expertise and capacity; and (7) Costs. áhese
should not be ignored by local districts creating a teacher appraisal system or by the state in adoption
and creation of a new teacher appraisal and development system.
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áhe SAS EVAAS© for K-12 student projection methodology was reviewed by the Government
Accounting Office (GAO) in 2006 and is referenced in its July report to the House Education
Committee, which is available on the official GAO website.
Four US Department of Education peer review committees have approved the reliability of SAS͛
student projection methodology. With four prior scores, the multiple correlation is higher 3
years in advance than the simple correlation between adjacent years.
áhe Gational Governor͛s Association included SAS EVAAS© in its 2003 Data áoolkit.
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Four of the largest districts in áexas are using SAS EVAAS©. Several districts including Ft. Worth ISD,
Lubbock ISD, Austin ISD, Gorthside ISD, Longview ISD and districts participating in the áAP Program use
SAS EVAAS© for a variety of purposes.