The last decade has borne witness to the two most destructive natural disasters in

Pakistan’s history namely the earthquake of 2005 and the floods of 2010. The effects
of these two events have been quite far reaching on the society of Pakistan. However
it must be noted that it is not the first time that Pakistan has been devastated by such
natural disasters. This report will describe the effects of earthquakes and floods on the
Pakistani society by analysing the figures of the few main earthquakes and floods.
These figures shall depict the number of people affected, the economic loss and the
loss of infrastructure facilities. To take the analysis a notch further this report will
describe in detail the effects of the most recent earthquake and the most recent flood
so as to understand the figures of destruction in greater detail.
Firstly the number of lives lost to earthquakes and floods have to be looked at. The
two bar charts below show the number of lives lost to earthquakes and floods:

De
100000
90000
80000
The above shown figures are for the two main earthquakes and six main floods in the
history of Pakistan. As can be seen in the first chart the earthquake of 1974 was not as
damaging in terms of lives lost as the 2005 earthquake. However both of these
earthquakes were much more destructive than the six floods that are shown in the bar
chart above. This can be seen by noticing the scale of the vertical axis for both the
floods graph and the earthquakes graph. The axis on the earthquakes graph shows the
numbers of lives lost in thousands while the axis for the floods graph shows the
number of lives lost in hundreds. This difference is quite stark and shows that though
earthquakes in Pakistan were lesser in number than floods but the destruction that
they left in their wake was much more devastating than the destruction of floods. This
phenomenon can be explained by two factors. Firstly, the earthquakes did not give
any prior warning and hence the people were not prepared at all while the floods were
generally an annual phenomenon and most of the people affected were generally
prepared for them and hence were able to take pre-emptive measures with regard to it.
Secondly it must be noted that earthquakes generally hit mountainous regions whose
harsh topography did not allow easy communication while floods mostly hit he Indus
Basin region which is an easier terrain for communication than the mountainous
regions. However it must be noted that the effects of floods are not limited to the
Indus Basin only but also affect areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, but
this does not invalidate the earlier analysis because a greater proportion of the areas
affected by floods are the plains of South Punjab and Sindh. However
notwithstanding our speculations with regards to the causes for the difference in the
death tolls for the two types of natural disasters, it cannot be denied that so far
Earthquakes have caused a significant amount of deaths as compared to Floods. For
example the loss of lives from a major earthquake like 2005 is almost 50 times greater
than the deaths occurring in the floods of 2010.
Moving on to the number of people affected by earthquakes and floods:
The number of people affected shows the estimated figures for people who incurred
some kind of a loss. The type of loss varies, it can be the loss of life or the loss of kin
it can also be the loss of a crop or house or the loss of a cow etc. Looking at the above
bar charts it is clear that the number of people affected due to the floods is far more
than those of the earthquakes. This can be attributed to the fact that the earthquake
causes damage to the areas near the epicentre whereas floods cover a vast area in
Pakistan. Pakistan has the whole Indus Plain which many times floods causing
damage to all the regions it and its tributaries flow through. Another thing that can be
noted here is the difference in the number of people affected by different floods is
higher when the flood is caused after a lengthy period of time. For example the 1992
flood and the 2010 flood were the two major floods that were caused after a long
period of time and the number of people affected by them was also pretty high
because of this time difference. This shows that if floods do not come for a few years
then people become lax in their pr emptive measures and hence are not prepared for it
which leads to a greater amount of loss. Hence the foreseeability of the floods, which
determines the preparedness of the people, has an inverse relationship with the
number of people affected. The greater the foreseeability the lower is the number of
people affected. Furthermore, it must be noted that a similar analysis of the
relationship of foreseeability and the number of people affected cannot be made for
Earthquakes since there is no way in which they can be foreseen and all of them arrive
with the somewhat similar element of surprise. So the next best alternative is to
differentiate them on the basis of intensity:
The above shown graph compares earthquakes on the basis of the magnitude i.e. the
intensity on the Richter scale. It can be seen that the 2005 earthquake had the highest
magnitude and caused the highest damage (shown in the People Affected’s graph).
However we can also note that even though the 2008 earthquake has a slightly higher
magnitude than the 1974 earthquake still its death toll and damage was comparatively
much less. This is different due to the fact that the earthquakes took place in
completely different regions. Also the population density of these areas varies. A
region with a higher population density would have experienced greater death loss,
injuries and other damages as compared to a region with a lower population density.
That is why we may be able to actually draw some conclusions on the basis of
magnitude but these conclusions cannot be viewed in isolation and they have to take
into account the population density of the different regions in which these earthquakes
occurred. Therefore no definite relationship between the magnitude and consequences
can be drawn in isolation as it would be misleading.
Having looked at the general trends in the effects of floods and earthquakes this report
will now look at the effect of the 2005 earthquake in isolation:
The morning of 8th October began with a tremendous earthquake with an intensity of
7.6 on the Richter scale. Of all the earthquakes in the history of Pakistan this was one
the most devastating. The epicentre of the earthquake was Muzaffarabad. The
northern areas were the most affected areas by the earthquake causing a huge loss of
human lives, livestock and property. Not only areas from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and
AJK but also our capital city Islamabad suffered huge losses. The Margala towers
collapsed with 75 apartments. But before going into further detail it only makes sense
to visually understand the location of the areas it hit.
The following map shows the intensity of the earthquake with respect to the distance
from the epicentre.
Overall the extent of the damage caused by the earthquake can be demonstrated in the
following table which shows area wise death toll and injuries.

Areas Dead Injured

Muzaffarabad 34,173 56,526
Mansehra 24,511 35,306
Bagh 8,157 24,000
Battagram 3,232 3,279
Rawalakot 1,078 2,021
Kohistan 661 2,000
Abbotabad 515 2,500
Army(AJK) 456 766
Shangla 423 957
Islamabad 74 101
Others 58 853
TOTAL 73,338 128,309
Together, there was a loss of public and private assets of about Rs. 135.2 billion. The
earthquake also left behind different types of vulnerabilities. The employment level
fell drastically. The table below shows the changes in employment sector wise in total
earthquake affected area.

Employment by Employment 2005 Employment loss Percentage Change

sector Pre-earthquake due to earthquake
Agriculture and 1,380,000 580,000 - 42%
livestock
Industry (mining, 230,000 150,000 -65%
manufacturing &
construction)
Services (mainly 730,000 380,000 -52%
informal)
Other 40,000 20,000 -50%
Total 2,380,000 1,130,000 -47%

The earthquake caused a 42% decline in agriculture and livestock. The rural areas
were most adversely affected in case of food loss because their food consumption
mainly consisted of cereals, pulses and fat (ghee), all of which were destroyed due to
the earthquake.
The second largest proportion of population was employed in the services sector,
having 35.2 percent of AJK and 24.5 percent of NWFP and a 52% decline in the
services sector. Around 0.96 million people lost employment in these two sectors. The
areas with the most agriculture and livestock loss include Bagh and Muzaffarabad
with a loss of 75% in maize, 30% in rice and 50% in wheat areas and 20% of
livestock was lost in each of these regions. The following table gives details of the
crop damage and livestock lost to the 2005 earthquake:

Province Districts Maize Rice Wheat Livestock

area lost
Bagh 75% 30% 50% 20%
AJK Muzaffarabad 75% 30% 50% 20%
Poonch 40% 30% 50% 15%
Abbotabad 30% 7% 30% 10%
Mansehra 50% 15% 30% 10%
NWFP Kohistan 30% 10% 30% 15%
Batagram 50% 15% 30% 10%
Shangla 35% 10% 30% 15%

To further worsen the conditions, many rural areas were difficult to reach due to the
winter snow which blocked the ways to these areas, so timely aid could not be
provided to these areas.
Moreover, another problem with the 2005 earthquake was the destruction of houses
and other necessary buildings. This aspect of the 2005 earthquake was by far its most
devastating feature since the earthquake occurred during Octobers when most of the
regions affected were already going through the start of their winter season this meant
that most of the people affected were left homeless and unprotected from the harsh
elements of nature. Moreover the destruction of property also meant that the
restoration process will be not be smooth and easy rather it was to be a difficult
transition and a costly venture. The following tables show the number of different
types of buildings lost:

Housing Units
No destroyed Pre Quake total %age Population Affected
Destroyed
600,152 787,583 76% 3.5
Schools and Colleges
Destroyed/Damaged Pre-Quake %Destroyed/Damaged
Total
AJK 3,685 3,879 95%
NWFP 3,984 7,577 53%
TOTAL 7,669 11,456 66.94%
Health Care Facilities
Destroyed/Damaged Pre-Quake Total %age Destroyed/Damaged
574 782 73.4%

Given that 75% of the housing units were destroyed it comes as no surprise that many
of the effected people were forced to either stay in tents or migrate to southern regions
were the winters are somewhat milder than those in the north. The destruction of
houses combined with the drop in the employment levels and the destruction of crops
and other agricultural facilities led to a large amount of displacement of people within
Pakistan which further deteriorated the economic situation in Pakistan.
Now having looked at the 2005 earthquake it is now reasonable to move on to the
2010 floods and the way that they affected the lives of people in Pakistan. The high
temperatures in the early summer of 2010 that led to high melting of the glaciers and
the formation of a low pressure area over the Pakistan region led to a prolonged
monsoon season. Both these factors combined to invite in the high amount of flooding
in the months of July and august in Pakistan. It was a flood that was to displace many
a thousands of people and leave the entire world stunned by its severity. As per AON
Benfield’s report as of late August, at least 1,645 people were killed, over 2,479 were
injured and hundreds more were listed as missing after the catastrophic floods covered
an estimated 62,000 square miles (160,000 square kilometres) of land –nearly one-
fifth of the Pakistan’s entire landmass. But before going into any more specifics of the
destruction the causes of destruction must be looked into. The following table
compares the rainfall in 2010 with the mean average rainfall in Pakistan:
Moving on to the effects of the 2010 floods the location of the floods must be
visualised first.
The following map shows the regions affected by the floods in 2010:
The following map shows the intensity of the floods in the different districts that it
hit:

This shows that most of the Indus Basin was affected by these floods but flooding was
not just limited to the Indus Basin but the Chenab and Jhelum were also flooded.
However it must be noted that the red regions which represent the severely affected
regions are mostly limited to the Indus Basin area. The magnitude of this flood was
heightened by the increase in temperature and the increase in rainfall which were
higher than the average rainfall. As of late August, at least 1,645 people were killed,
over 2,479 were injured and hundreds more were listed as missing after the
catastrophic floods covered an estimated 62,000 square miles (160,000 square
kilometres) of land –nearly one-fifth of the Pakistan’s entire landmass. Moreover
since the flooding was mostly limited to the Indus Basin area which is the agricultural
heart of the country it is goes without saying that the economy of Pakistan suffered
severe damages in its agricultural sector. The following table provided for by the
World Bank estimates the damage caused to the agricultural sector:
It must be noted that the damages in Sindh were by far the highest this is so because
Sindh is mostly an agricultural area. This figure is followed up by Punjab and
although Punjab covers a greater area than that of Sindh the damages there are lesser
because the north eastern part of Punjab was mostly unaffected. Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa and AJK did not have high rates of agricultural loss mostly because
their terrain does not allow agriculture to be the most dominant sector which is why
,as compared to Punjab and Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and AJK have relatively
lower rates of agricultural damage.
However it must be noted that damages were not limited to the agricultural sector
alone. Many people lost their houses and many government and non government
facilities were destroyed. The following tables provided for by the world bank will
show the
In nearly all of the three tables above it can be noted the Sindh and Punjab were hit
the most. This can be explained by the fact that when the Indus reaches Punjnad it is
joined by all the other rivers that flow in the region of Punjab this means that the
already high volume of the Indus increases and it is this increased volume of water
that caused the damage in Punjab and Sindh. While in the areas north of Punjnad the
affected regions were mostly flooded by the excess volume of either Indus or Jehlum
alone. So this shows the disparity in the way the different regions were affected by
the floods of 2010.
Having described in detail the effects of the 2005 earthquake and the effects of the
2010 earthquake it must be reiterated that he two analyses were not drawn to compare
the effects of the two. Rather they were drawn so as to understand the two major
natural disasters in our lifetimes so far. The scope of this report was to explain the
effects of natural disasters like floods and earthquakes on the lives of people living in
Pakistan with respect to specific figures for the damages and that is what this report
has tried to achieve. It has tried to compile the data through different sources and tried
to explain the relationships and trends prevalent in that data.
APPENDIX:
The source for the Bar charts:
1. Earthquake Data
Year Deaths Injured Property Homeless Affected Areas
1974 5300 17,000 - - 97,000 Hazara,
Swat
2005 87,000 100,000 171,884 4000,000 - Punjab,
houses Kashmir,
2006 1 22 - - - Mangla
2008 166 357 9897 15,000 68,200 Quetta,
houses Ziarat
Taken from:

1. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/events/1974_12_28.p
hp

2. http://www.dripireland.org/earthquakeDetail.php?entid=19

3. http://www.pu.edu.pk/geo/journal/PDF-FILES/Vol_44_117-122.pdf

4. http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/humanitarian_assistance/disaster_as
sistance/countries/pakistan/template/fs_sr/fy2009/pakistan_eq_fs03
_11-25-2008.pdf

http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/?cid=129

2. Floods data:
Year Monetary Lives Villages Area People Lives
Losses Lost Affected Flooded Effected Lost
(billion Rs.) (No.) (No.) (sq. miles) (No.)
195 9.08 2910 10,000 7,000 2900
0
195 7.04 679 6,945 8,000
5
195 5.92 160 11,609 29,605
6
197 5.52 474 9,719 16,200 4,800,000
3
197 12.72 126 8,628 13,645
5
197 64.84 425 18,390 32,000 5,566,000
6
197 1,022,000 10354
7
197 41.44 393 9,199 11,952 2,246,000
8
198 15.96 508 100 4,400
8
199 56.00 1,00 13,208 15,140 12,324,02 1334
2 8 4
199 7.00 591 6,852 6,518 1,255,000
5
201 15000-43000( US 1645 4887 160,000 17,600,00
0 mln$) 0

Reference:
For the first 5 columns
http://cms.waterinfo.net.pk/?q=fip
For the last column:
AON Benfield report.