t Demand Tt Error Mod error Percentage Error

1 779 789.590 10.590 10.590 1.359

2 802 795.874 -6.126 6.126 0.764
3 818 802.158 -15.842 15.842 1.937
4 888 808.442 -79.558 79.558 8.959
5 898 814.725 -83.275 83.275 9.273
6 902 821.009 -80.991 80.991 8.979
7 916 827.293 -88.707 88.707 9.684
8 708 833.577 125.577 125.577 17.737
9 695 839.861 144.861 144.861 20.843
10 708 846.145 138.145 138.145 19.512
11 716 852.429 136.429 136.429 19.054
12 784 858.713 74.713 74.713 9.530
13 845 864.997 19.997 19.997 2.367
14 739 871.281 132.281 132.281 17.900
15 871 877.565 6.565 6.565 0.754
16 927 883.849 -43.151 43.151 4.655
17 1133 890.133 -242.867 242.867 21.436
18 1124 896.417 -227.583 227.583 20.248
19 1056 902.701 -153.299 153.299 14.517
20 889 908.985 19.985 19.985 2.248
21 857 915.269 58.269 58.269 6.799
22 772 921.553 149.553 149.553 19.372
23 751 927.837 176.837 176.837 23.547
24 820 934.121 114.121 114.121 13.917
25 857 940.405 83.405 83.405 9.732
26 881 946.689 65.689 65.689 7.456
27 937 952.973 15.973 15.973 1.705
28 1159 959.257 -199.743 199.743 17.234
29 1072 965.541 -106.459 106.459 9.931
30 1246 971.825 -274.175 274.175 22.004
31 1198 978.109 -219.891 219.891 18.355
32 922 984.393 62.393 62.393 6.767
33 798 990.677 192.677 192.677 24.145
34 879 996.961 117.961 117.961 13.420
35 945 1003.245 58.245 58.245 6.163
36 990 1009.528 19.528 19.528 1.973
37 917 1015.812 98.812 98.812 10.776
38 956 1022.096 66.096 66.096 6.914
39 1001 1028.380 27.380 27.380 2.735
40 1142 1034.664 -107.336 107.336 9.399
41 1276 1040.948 -235.052 235.052 18.421
42 1356 1047.232 -308.768 308.768 22.770
43 1288 1053.516 -234.484 234.484 18.205
44 1082 1059.800 -22.200 22.200 2.052
45 877 1066.084 189.084 189.084 21.560
46 1009 1072.368 63.368 63.368 6.280
47 1100 1078.652 -21.348 21.348 1.941
48 998 1084.936 86.936 86.936 8.711
49 887 1091.220 204.220 204.220 23.024
50 892 1097.504 205.504 205.504 23.039
51 997 1103.788 106.788 106.788 10.711
52 1118 1110.072 -7.928 7.928 0.709
53 1197 1116.356 -80.644 80.644 6.737
54 1256 1122.640 -133.360 133.360 10.618
55 1202 1128.924 -73.076 73.076 6.080
56 1170 1135.208 -34.792 34.792 2.974
57 982 1141.492 159.492 159.492 16.242
58 1297 1147.776 -149.224 149.224 11.505
59 1163 1154.060 -8.940 8.940 0.769
60 1053 1160.344 107.344 107.344 10.194

Mean absolute percentage error 11.111

As Mean Absolute Per

 MA(3) Error Mod error Percentage error St, It St Forecast

799.667 -2.333 2.333 0.291 1.003 0.998 793.893

836.000 18.000 18.000 2.200 0.978 1.004 805.092
868.000 -20.000 20.000 2.252 1.023 0.997 805.856
896.000 -2.000 2.000 0.223 1.002 0.997 812.632
905.333 3.333 3.333 0.370 0.996 0.993 814.914
842.000 -74.000 74.000 8.079 1.088 0.999 826.506
773.000 65.000 65.000 9.181 0.916 0.993 827.474
703.667 8.667 8.667 1.247 0.988 1.003 842.595
706.333 -1.667 1.667 0.235 1.002 1.000 846.141
736.000 20.000 20.000 2.793 0.973 1.002 853.873
781.667 -2.333 2.333 0.298 1.003 1.002 860.190
789.333 -55.667 55.667 6.588 1.071 0.998 863.229
818.333 79.333 79.333 10.735 0.903 0.993 864.958
845.667 -25.333 25.333 2.909 1.030 1.002 879.336
977.000 50.000 50.000 5.394 0.949 0.998 882.265
1061.333 -71.667 71.667 6.325 1.068 0.998 888.166
1104.333 -19.667 19.667 1.750 1.018 1.001 896.882
1023.000 -33.000 33.000 3.125 1.032 0.992 895.548
934.000 45.000 45.000 5.062 0.952 0.995 904.334
839.333 -17.667 17.667 2.061 1.021 1.005 920.231
793.333 21.333 21.333 2.763 0.973 0.999 920.421
781.000 30.000 30.000 3.995 0.962 0.994 922.313
809.333 -10.667 10.667 1.301 1.013 0.998 932.307
852.667 -4.333 4.333 0.506 1.005 0.998 938.090
891.667 10.667 10.667 1.211 0.988 1.001 947.482
992.333 55.333 55.333 5.905 0.944 0.998 951.419
1056.000 -103.000 103.000 8.887 1.098 1.003 962.373
1159.000 87.000 87.000 8.116 0.925 0.992 957.397
1172.000 -74.000 74.000 5.939 1.063 0.999 970.440
1122.000 -76.000 76.000 6.344 1.068 0.994 972.373
972.667 50.667 50.667 5.495 0.948 0.991 975.937
866.333 68.333 68.333 8.563 0.921 1.000 990.194
874.000 -5.000 5.000 0.569 1.006 1.007 1003.596
938.000 -7.000 7.000 0.741 1.007 0.996 999.044
950.667 -39.333 39.333 3.973 1.041 0.996 1005.877
954.333 37.333 37.333 4.071 0.961 0.998 1014.054
958.000 2.000 2.000 0.209 0.998 1.002 1024.242
1033.000 32.000 32.000 3.197 0.969 0.998 1026.829
1139.667 -2.333 2.333 0.204 1.002 0.998 1032.629
1258.000 -18.000 18.000 1.411 1.014 0.997 1038.204
 1306.667 -49.333 49.333 3.638 1.038 0.997 1044.316
1242.000 -46.000 46.000 3.571 1.037 0.994 1047.503
1082.333 0.333 0.333 0.031 1.000 0.994 1053.161
989.333 112.333 112.333 12.809 0.886 0.993 1058.848
995.333 -13.667 13.667 1.354 1.014 1.008 1080.693
1035.667 -64.333 64.333 5.848 1.062 0.993 1071.378
995.000 -3.000 3.000 0.301 1.003 0.999 1084.359
925.667 38.667 38.667 4.359 0.958 0.999 1089.663
925.333 33.333 33.333 3.737 0.964 1.003 1100.366
1002.333 5.333 5.333 0.535 0.995 1.007 1111.404
1104.000 -14.000 14.000 1.252 1.013 1.008 1119.427
1190.333 -6.667 6.667 0.557 1.006 1.008 1125.086
1218.333 -37.667 37.667 2.999 1.031 1.008 1131.834
1209.333 7.333 7.333 0.610 0.994 1.004 1133.039
1118.000 -52.000 52.000 4.444 1.047 1.006 1142.101
1149.667 167.667 167.667 17.074 0.854 0.993 1133.036
1147.333 -149.667 149.667 11.539 1.130 1.062 1218.717
1171.000 8.000 8.000 0.688 0.993 0.993 1146.175

Mean Absolute Percentage Error 3.791 Mean Absolute Percentage Error

As Mean Absolute Percentage Error is minimum in moving average, we should do demand

forecasting by moving average
 Error Mod error Percentage change Exponential smoothing Error Mod error
779.000 0.000 0.000
14.893 14.893 1.871 873.000 71.000 71.000
3.092 3.092 0.385 921.800 103.800 103.800
-12.144 12.144 1.502 990.320 102.320 102.320
-75.368 75.368 9.251 1024.728 126.728 126.728
-83.086 83.086 10.120 1041.291 139.291 139.291
-75.494 75.494 9.125 1057.716 141.716 141.716
-88.526 88.526 10.620 918.687 210.687 210.687
134.595 134.595 16.026 853.975 158.975 158.975
151.141 151.141 17.862 837.190 129.190 129.190
145.873 145.873 17.113 836.076 120.076 120.076
144.190 144.190 16.791 883.230 99.230 99.230
79.229 79.229 9.159 944.792 99.792 99.792
19.958 19.958 2.291 895.217 156.217 156.217
140.336 140.336 15.992 967.787 96.787 96.787
11.265 11.265 1.274 1036.015 109.015 109.015
-38.834 38.834 4.363 1207.506 74.506 74.506
-236.118 236.118 26.340 1269.802 145.802 145.802
-228.452 228.452 25.308 1247.121 191.121 191.121
-151.666 151.666 16.685 1121.148 232.148 232.148
31.231 31.231 3.412 1048.359 191.359 191.359
63.421 63.421 6.882 959.744 187.744 187.744
150.313 150.313 16.200 909.597 158.597 158.597
181.307 181.307 19.409 937.839 117.839 117.839
118.090 118.090 12.557 975.036 118.036 118.036
90.482 90.482 9.558 1006.714 125.714 125.714
70.419 70.419 7.389 1058.586 121.586 121.586
25.373 25.373 2.645 1234.734 75.734 75.734
-201.603 201.603 20.880 1244.294 172.294 172.294
-101.560 101.560 10.450 1369.917 123.917 123.917
-273.627 273.627 27.975 1386.567 188.567 188.567
-222.063 222.063 22.558 1200.027 278.027 278.027
68.194 68.194 6.884 1038.611 240.611 240.611
205.596 205.596 20.622 1030.744 151.744 151.744
120.044 120.044 11.966 1073.798 128.798 128.798
60.877 60.877 6.030 1122.519 132.519 132.519
24.054 24.054 2.368 1090.908 173.908 173.908
107.242 107.242 10.492 1105.563 149.563 149.563
70.829 70.829 6.887 1142.925 141.925 141.925
31.629 31.629 3.057 1256.570 114.570 114.570
-103.796 103.796 9.971 1395.828 119.828 119.828
 -231.684 231.684 22.123 1507.531 151.531 151.531
-308.497 308.497 29.283 1504.612 216.612 216.612
-234.839 234.839 22.159 1359.245 277.245 277.245
-23.152 23.152 2.172 1157.598 280.598 280.598
203.693 203.693 18.995 1169.339 160.339 160.339
62.378 62.378 5.783 1237.736 137.736 137.736
-15.641 15.641 1.442 1193.694 195.694 195.694
91.663 91.663 8.400 1098.378 211.378 211.378
213.366 213.366 19.441 1063.751 171.751 171.751
219.404 219.404 19.877 1123.400 126.400 126.400
122.427 122.427 11.029 1231.960 113.960 113.960
7.086 7.086 0.635 1330.684 133.684 133.684
-65.166 65.166 5.805 1411.474 155.474 155.474
-122.961 122.961 10.892 1405.989 203.989 203.989
-59.899 59.899 5.276 1381.396 211.396 211.396
-36.964 36.964 3.238 1239.958 257.958 257.958
236.717 236.717 20.624 1403.883 106.883 106.883
-150.825 150.825 13.069 1375.653 212.653 212.653

Percentage Error 11.561 Mean Absolute Percentage Error

uld do demand
Percentage error
0.000
8.853
12.689
11.523
14.112
15.442
15.471
29.758
22.874
18.247
16.770
12.657
11.810
21.139
11.112
11.760
6.576
12.972
18.099
26.113
22.329
24.319
21.118
14.371
13.773 SUMMARY OUTPUT
14.269
12.976 Regression Statistics
6.534 Multiple R 0.636488
16.072 R Square 0.405116
9.945 Adjusted R 0.39486
15.740 Standard E 134.1288
30.155 Observatio 60
30.152
17.263 ANOVA
13.629 df SS MS F Significance F
13.386 Regression 1 710591.1 710591.1 39.49806 4.603E-08
18.965 Residual 58 1043451 17990.53
15.645 Total 59 1754042
14.178
10.032 Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
9.391 Intercept 783.3056 35.06938 22.33589 3.576E-30 713.1067
11.175 X Variable 6.283968 0.999876 6.284748 4.603E-08 4.282499
16.818
25.623
31.995
15.891
12.521
19.609
23.831
19.255
12.678
10.193
11.168
12.378
16.971
18.068
26.269
8.241
18.285

16.156
Significance F

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
853.5046 713.1067 853.5046
8.285437 4.282499 8.285437