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Zynga
4 April 2011 GreenCrest Capital
Management LLC
Executive Summary
Equity Research – Zynga
04 April 2011 | 3 pages
Zynga: One Fierce Dog
• Zynga is one of the fastest growing companies ever. We anticipate an initial public
offering (IPO) in either the first or second quarter of 2012. Zynga is currently working
towards an additional $500 million investment round. This will assist the company with
its acquisition practices and add to the company’s revenues.
• The top six games on Facebook are Zynga games, getting almost three‐quarters of all
Facebook gaming traffic. Zynga spends $100 million per year on advertising on
Facebook, and the gaming company also pays to Facebook well over $200 million per
year on revenue share from in‐game sales of virtual goods.
• About 80% of Zynga’s revenues come from the sale of virtual goods and credits, while
20% is from advertising. Only approximately 3% of Zynga’s users pay to Zynga directly,
while 97% are monetized via advertising only.
• Acquisitions are proving to be a key to Zynga’s success. The company has acquired 13
companies, including 10 in the last 10 months, and all brought something new to the
table. The company is utilizing its acquisition practices to gain talent, technology and,
to some degree, eliminate future competitors that have a product or technology that
Zynga does not.
• In December 2010, Zynga showed its market power by launching a new game,
CityVille, and attracting over 100 million users to the game within weeks. The
Nitsan Hargil, CFA
addictive nature of the game brings 70% of each day’s users back to play the game the Senior Equity Analyst
following day. Direct: (212) 607‐5456
nitsanh@greencrestcapital.com
• The Chinese market is exceptionally difficult for Zynga to penetrate due to its high
dependence on the Facebook platform, which is non‐operational in China for the AB Mendez, CFA
foreseeable future. However, in May 2010, Zynga acquired XPD Media, a Beijing‐ Senior Equity Analyst
Direct: (212) 607‐5456
based innovative Internet and mobile platform designer. This is sure to have impact
abm@greencrestcapital.com
over time on Zynga’s ability to get its games in front of users in China.
GreenCrest Capital Management LLC
• We find extraordinary value in this exciting company. Using two diverse valuation 100 Wall Street, 8th Floor
methods, we come to a Market Cap estimate of $14.5 billion. While the company last New York, NY 10005
Main: (212) 607‐5423
raised funds at a $4 billion valuation in April of 2010, and there are numerous reports
http://www.greencrestcapital.com
placing its potential valuation as high as $10 billion, we believe the company is
currently worth more than three times its value of just a year ago.
Legal Disclaimer
GreenCrest Capital Management LLC (Hereafter “GreenCrest”) does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its
research report. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity
of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This document does
not contain all the information needed to make an investment decision, including but not limited to, the risks and costs.
Page 1 GreenCrest Capital Management LLC
Zynga
4 April 2011
Table of Contents (of Full Report)
Investment Thesis ………………………........................................................................................................................................... 3
SWOT Analysis …………………...................................................................................................................................................... 4
Zynga’s Model for Revenue Growth …………............................................................................................................................. 6
How Zynga Generates Money ………….............................................................................................................................. 7
The Role of User Credits …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….7
Zynga’s Relationship with Facebook ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…………. 9
Zynga’s Games Dominate Facebook Statistics ……………………………………………………………………………………..…………………….……… 12
Mobile Gaming Continues to Grow ………………………………………..………………………………………………………………………………….……… 13
Zynga’s Edge on the Competition ………………………………………..…………………………………………………………………………………….……… 15
Acquisitions Mean Growth ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…………. 15
Playing catch‐up with Zynga …………………………………………………………………………………………….……………………………………..………… 18
Zynga Investment Funding ……………………………………………………………………………………………….……………………………………..………… 20
Finding Zynga’s Value ……………………………………………………………….……………………………………………….………………………………………. 21
Zynga’s Revenues …………………………………………………….……………………………………………….…………….………………………………… 21
Valuation Methods …………………………………………………….……………………………………………….……….…………………………………… 22
Comparative Analysis of Gaming Companies …………….……………………………………………….……….……………………………………. 23
Market Valuation ………………………………………………….……………………………………………….……………….………………………………… 24
Enterprise Value to Revenues Valuation Method …….………………………………………………….……….…………………………………… 24
Enterprise Value to EBITDA Valuation Method ….…….………………………………………………….……….…………………………………… 25
Zynga’s Market Cap ………………………………………………….……………………………………………….…………..….……………………………… 25
Zynga’s Structure for Capitalization ………………………………………………..………………………………………………………………………… 29
Zynga Games Draw Big Numbers …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………… 30
The History Behind the Company …………………………………………………………….………………………………………………………………………… 36
The History Behind the Games ….…………………………………………………….……………………………………………………………………….. 36
Zynga Sets Up Shop in 11 Locales ….…………………………………………………….……………………………………………………………….….. 36
Zynga Faced “Spamming” and “Scamming” Accusations …………….……………………………………………………………………….….. 36
Zynga gives back via zynga.org …………………………………………………….…………………………………………….…………………………..…………… 37
Leading Team Zynga …………………………………………………….…………………………………………….…………………………………………..…………… 38
Top Tier Leadership – Zynga’s Board of Directors ……………………………………….………………………….………………………….…..…………… 40
About GreenCrest Capital & Its Analysts …................................................................................................................................ 41
Who is GreenCrest Capital? …......................................................................................................................................... 41
About the Analysts …………….………………………………………………….………………………………………………………………….……………... 41
Disclaimer …………….………………………………………………….………………………………………………………………………………….…….…………….....42
Page 2 GreenCrest Capital Management LLC
Zynga
4 April 2011
About GreenCrest Capital & Its Analysts
GreenCrest Capital provides clients with accurate, timely and innovative research into the companies, sectors and spaces which we
cover. To that end we established an experienced team of analysts, researchers, economists and industry veterans that focus
exclusively on private companies with a proven track record of success. Producing quality research on a private company is uniquely
challenging. Our team’s collaborative examination employs forensic analysis combining primary research as well as secondary
information sources. Our analysts and industry experts leverage years of experience working for bulge bracket firms. Our research
group utilizes fundamental analysis to deliver proprietary, innovative, insightful and thought provoking reports.
Nitsan Hargil, CFA, has more than 15 years of experience as an analyst in the technology and financial services industries. Mr. Hargil
specialized in artificial intelligence research, security software, and network management software and systems. Prior to GreenCrest
Capital Mr. Hargil's Wall Street career includes research analyst positions at Lehman Brothers, Kaufman Brothers, and Friedman
Billings Ramsey (FBR). He is known for successfully integrating his deep understanding of technology with extensive channel checks
to provide credible, objective research. Mr. Hargil was recognized as a top analyst in The Wall Street Journal "Best On The Street"
awards for best stock picking in software. He was ranked by StarMine as second (out of more than 100 analysts) in software EPS
accuracy for three years in a row. Mr. Hargil frequently appeared on CNBC, CNN, CNNfn, Bloomberg TV, and other financial news
shows and has been quoted for his expertise in identifying and analyzing industry trends in leading publications such as The Wall
Street Journal, Investor's Business Daily, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Fortune, and Business Week. Mr. Hargil is a
member of the CFA Institute and the New York Society of Security Analysts (NYSSA). He received his M.B.A. from the Anderson
School at UCLA.
A.B. Mendez, CFA, has over 11 years of equity research and consulting experience with private and public companies in the Internet
Media, E‐Commerce and software‐as‐a‐service (SAAS) sectors. Prior to joining GreenCrest he was a Senior Equities Analyst at Twin
Red Asset Management where he researched public and private companies across a range of industries and constructed a portfolio
of long and short positions. Prior to that Mr. Mendez was an Internet equity research analyst at Bank of America, Friedman Billings
Ramsey(FBR), and Thomas Weisel Partners. His operational and entrepreneurial experience includes independent E‐Commerce and
database consulting, working on multiple Internet startups, and serving as Director of Operations at Web software firm, Whiteboard
Labs. Mr. Mendez earned a BA in Economics and Political Science from Rice University, and is a member of the CFA Institute and the
New York Society of Security Analysts (NYSSA). He is also a pro bono consultant for the New York‐based Taproot Foundation.
Disclaimer
GreenCrest Capital Management LLC (Hereafter “GreenCrest”) does and seeks to do business with companies covered in this
research report. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This
document does not contain all the information needed to make an investment decision, including but not limited to, the risks and
costs.
Additional information is available upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but
GreenCrest or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries do not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All pricing information for the securities
discussed is derived from public information, unless otherwise stated. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the
date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is
not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations
herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of
particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to particular clients. The recipient of this report must make its own
independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. Periodic updates may be provided on
companies/industries based on company specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly
available information.
Copyright 2011 GreenCrest Management LLC. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or
redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written consent of GreenCrest Capital.
Page 3 GreenCrest Capital Management LLC