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California High School Test Scores

Philip Pham

April 27, 2011

Abstract
In this paper, I examine the current state of the school reform movement by developing
a model to predict high school test scores in California based on socioeconomic data, school
type, and teacher characteristics. Based on the statistical significance of predictors, I make
inferences about the effectiveness about proposed school reforms. My results indicate that
socioeconomic traits and teacher quality most strongly correlate with high test scores, while
promising reforms such as charter schools fail to make any statistically significant difference.
Thus, besides solving the problem of socioeconomic inequality, common sense approaches like
better teaching remain the best way to improve to improve high school test scores.

Introduction
In recent years, standardized testing has jumped to the forefront of the debate on national educa-
tion reform. If we are to improve our nation’s schools, some kind of metric is needed to measure
that improvement. There is much debate on whether standardized tests are even useful in con-
veying how much children are learning. Despite this opposition, schools are increasingly judged
on these test scores, and therefore, allocated funding based on them. Thus, there is much interest
in how improve these scores.
In this study, I examine the statewide high school test results from the California Standards
Test. I then develop a model to predict these test results from socioeconomic characteristics of
the students, characteristics of the teachers, and census data. From the correlations found in the
model, I then suggest possible public policy options that may improve high school test scores.

Method
I obtained data from the California Standardized Testing and Reporting (STAR) [2] and the US
Census. [1] All data from STAR were for the 2009-2010 school year. The census data are from 2000
(2010 census data were not yet released at the time of this writing). The data obtained for 1,138
high schools in California are listed in Table 4 on page 8. Schools with an enrollment under 100
were dropped, which left us with 1,094 high schools. A summary of the variables of interest can
be found in Table 1.
Not all data could be obtained at the high school level. Some were obtained only at the district
or county level and were merged with the high school data. An academic performance index (API)

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Summary of Data

Number
Total 1,094
Charter 168
Year Round 44
Largest Ethnic Group
African American 32
American Indian 2
Asian 58
Filipino 4
Hispanic 619
White 379

Variable Mean ± std. error


% AYP LA Proficient 55.0 ± 0.547
% AYP Math Proficient 54.0 ± 0.564
Academic Performance Index (API) 54.5 ± 0.543
% English Learners 14.5 ± 0.382
% Free Meals 50.0 ± 0.835
Average Teacher Salary 67,200 ± 217
Pupils Per Teacher 23 ± 0.126
School Enrollment 1590 ± 302
Median Household Value 204,000 ± 2,660
Attendance 89.5 ± 0.202
% Teachers < 2 Years 2.76 ± 0.00626

Table 1: Summary of predictors and response for 1094 high schools

for each high school was created by taking the average of % AYP LA Proficient and % AYP Math
Proficient. We are justified in doing this since the correlation between the two is greater than
0.90.
Histograms for some key variables can be found in Figure 3 on page 9. Most predictors had
skewed normal distributions with several outliers present. A log transformation was used on %
English Learners since it was very skewed to the right. A scatter plot and correlation matrix can
be found in Figure 4 on page 10. One particularly high correlation to note is between % English
Learners and % Free Meals (R = 0.65). Despite this, both are included in my models because
provides additional information. In particular, % Free Meals better predicts test scores in African
American schools compared to % English Learners (R2 = 0.34 versus R2 = 0.08). However, %
Free Meals is a poor predictor in Hispanic schools compared to % English Learners (R2 = 0.10
versus R2 = 0.254).
Models were created to predict the academic performance index of each high school from the

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predictors in Table 4. One model was obtained using a backwards-stepping Bayesian informa-
tion criteria (BIC) method. Another was obtained through the use of variable-added plots and
information from literature about what is thought to drive test scores. Leverage points and out-
liers were then checked and found to be valid. The former model contained 13 predictors, and
the latter contained 18. Thus, 31 two-sided tests of statistical significance were performed. I then
normalized the coefficients so that the effects of each predictors are easily comparable.

Results
In running 31 two-sided tests of statistical significance, we would expect that 1 or 2 variables
would be statistically significant by chance if we use α = 0.05 as our level of significance. There
are 12 statistically significant predictors in both Model A and Model B. Thus, the correlations with
test scores are real.

Models
Running a backwards-stepping BIC, we obtain a model (Model A) to predict API with an R2 value
of ∼0.61 (see Table 2). Since the BIC works without regard for multicollinearity, a correlation
matrix was generated, and variance inflation factors (VIF) were calculated. Only one predictor
was found to be problematic, % Minority, which had a VIF of over 5, the usual cutoff, and was
highly correlated with the Largest Ethnic Group indicators.
Another model was generated based on the current literature on education in order to gain
some sense of the effectiveness of various school reforms and public policy options. Due to cur-
rent proposed reforms, the indicators Year Round and Charter were included. Moreover, charter
schools tend to be more segregated, [7] so we added interaction terms (only African American,
Hispanic, and White were included since the other races did not have a significant number of
charter schools in which they were the largest ethnic group). Given the push for smaller schools,
School Enrollment was also included. Finally, % Minority was removed due to multicollinearity
as well. This model (Model B) can be seen in Table 3. Diagnostic plots for the model can be seen
in Figure 1. The model appears to be valid since the variance is normally distributed and con-
stant. Moreover, a partial F-test between Model A and Model B gives us a p-value of 0.0088, so the
results for Model B are statistically significant. So, Model B was chosen based on the additional
information it provides us about various school reform proposals.

Interpretation
We are able to develop models that are fairly good predictors of the tests scores, with an R2 value
of ∼0.61 in both models. Unsurprisingly, the best predictors were those based on race and in-
come. The commonly seen achievement gap between races is present with Asians performing
best, then Whites, Filipinos, Hispanics, African Americans, and American Indians in descending
order. Moreover, high values of % English Learners, which was associated with a high number
of Hispanics was correlated with low test scores. Poverty indicators like high values of % Free
Meals and low values of Median Household Value further contribute to low test scores.

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Regression Summary for Model A
Normalized coefficient
Predictor t value Pr(> |t|)
estimate ± std. error
(Intercept) 17.48 ± 5.77 3.03 0.00253
log(% English Learners + 1) −28.39 ± 2.46 −11.53 < 2 × 10−16
% Free Meals −9.51 ± 2.23 −4.27 2.16 × 10−5
Pupils Per Teacher 17.065 ± 4.06 4.20 2.83 × 10−5
Average Teacher Salary 29.96 ± 5.54 5.40 8.00 × 10−8
Median Household Value 10.83 ± 2.26 4.79 1.93 × 10−6
Attendance 34.27 ± 5.51 6.21 7.39 × 10−10
% Minority −7.30 ± 3.20 −2.83 0.0226
Largest Ethnic Group Indicators
African American −15.91 ± 2.62 −6.06 1.83 × 10−9
American Indian −21.30 ± 8.20 −2.60 0.00949
Asian 12.35 ± 2.03 6.09 1.54 × 10−9
Filipino 2.60 ± 5.86 0.444 0.657
Hispanic −5.12 ± 1.43 −3.59 0.000351

Value
R2 0.6117
Adjusted R2 0.6073
RMSE 11.18
Mean of Response 54.45
Observations 1094

Table 2: Model to predict API resulting from a backwards-stepping BIC method

The more interesting results are those for Average Teacher Salary, Pupils Per Teacher,
School Enrollment, Attendance, Charter, % Teachers < 2 years, and Year Round.
It is not too surprising that Attendance and Average Teacher Salary are both statistically
significant and positively correlated with higher test scores. After all, students must be in school
in order to learn. Higher teacher salaries indicate that the district is in a wealthier area, and the
quality of instruction is higher. [5] One should be cautious about interpreting the high coefficient
of Attendance since the range is compressed, for the 25/75 percentile is 86–94% (see Figure 3).
Thus, going from the bottom end to the top end involves increasing Attendance by 10, which on
average, increases API merely by 3.
Conversely, perhaps most surprising are the predictors associated with school size: Pupils
Per Teacher and School Enrollment. Pupils Per Teacher is positively correlated with higher
test scores, while School Enrollment has no effect. This seems to fly in the face of decades of
efforts to shrink schools and class sizes, and many studies have shown the benefits in the form
of higher test scores. [6] However, current research supports this finding. A recent study [11] has

4
Regression Summary for Model B
Normalized coefficient
Predictor t value Pr(> |t|)
estimate ± std. error
(Intercept) 21.19 ± 6.49 3.26 0.00115
log(% English Learners + 1) −31.99 ± 2.45 −13.05 < 2 × 10−16
% Free Meals −10.74 ± 2.09 −5.14 3.20 × 10−7
Average Teacher Salary 29.10 ± 6.04 −4.82 1.64 × 10−6
Pupils Per Teacher 13.03 ± 4.36 2.99 0.00285
School Enrollment 3.71 ± 2.34 1.59 0.112
Median Household Value 9.97 ± 2.33 4.27 2.09 × 10−5
Attendance 30.27 ± 5.79 5.23 2.03 × 10−7
% Teachers < 2 Years 4.06 ± 3.11 1.31 0.191
Year Round −3.93 ± 1.77 −2.22 0.0268
Largest Ethnic Group Indicators
African American −17.46 ± 2.82 −6.19 8.73 × 10−10
American Indian −25.69 ± 8.06 −3.19 0.00148
Asian 9.62 ± 1.66 5.81 8.37 × 10−9
Filipino −1.26 ± 5.70 −0.222 0.824
Hispanic −6.78 ± 1.08 −6.29 4.57 × 10−10
Charter Interaction Terms
Charter:African American −5.84 ± 4.14 −1.41 0.158
Charter:Hispanic −2.59 ± 1.33 −1.95 0.0520
Charter:White 0.0950 ± 2.15 0.044 0.965

Value
R2 0.6172
Adjusted R2 0.6111
RMSE 11.10
Mean of Response 54.45
Observations 1094

Table 3: Model to predict API after consulting literature

shown that class sizes are not nearly as important as teacher quality. Indeed, if one accepts
Average Teacher Salary as an indication of teacher quality, one sees that higher quality, i.e.
higher salaried, teachers are generally in schools with higher student-to-teacher ratios and en-
rollment (the correlation of Pupils Per Teacher and School Enrollment with Average Teacher
Salary is R = 0.28 and R = 0.40, respectively).
Another shocking finding is that new teachers are more effective, indicated by the positive
coefficient for % Teachers < 2 years, which goes against conventional wisdom. This predictor is
on the borderline of statistical significance. The research on this issue varies with some researchers

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Figure 1: Diagnostic plots for Model B

finding that teacher experience has a positive impact, [3] whereas others do not. [10] One reason that
the correlation may be positive is that teachers with a recent educational experience (e.g. freshly
minted teachers out of college) have a positive impact on their students. [9] However, this positive
coefficient may be a result of multicollinearity since we see that the correlation between API and %
Teachers < 2 years is negative in the correlation matrix in Figure 4.
Two often discussed school reforms are year-round schooling and charter schools. Year Round
is statistically significant and appears to worsen test scores. Most research, however, points to the
contrary. [8] One possible explanation for this deleterious effect is that year-round schooling is
experimental and often done with high-risk students. However, I found no correlation between
Year Round and poverty indicators like % Free Meals or Median Household Value.
On the other hand, schools with charter status appear to do worst or no better than normal
public schools. In the case of African Americans, if one looks at schools with a African Americans,
charter schools perform better (Figure 2). However, this difference is not statistically-significant
(p-value of 0.25). This may be a function of low sample size, though, since only 32 schools with
African Americans as the largest ethnic group were in the data set. The statistically significant
negative impact of charter schools on Hispanics is disconcerting, but the effect is small.

6
Charter Schools for African Americans

70
6050
API
40 30
20

N Y
Charter Status
Figure 2: Box plots comparing the percent proficient in African-American-dominated schools de-
pending on charter status

Discussion
We have built a model in order to find what characteristics in a school and surrounding neigh-
borhood are correlated with higher test scores. Our study confirms what many past studies have
shown: the primary driver of high test scores in schools is socioeconomic status, namely race and
wealth. Unfortunately, altering these factors is often politically infeasible, requiring complicated
busing schemes or the passing of laws that extend beyond the realm of education into areas such as
housing policy and wealth redistribution. However, some areas like Wake County have pursued
the goal of socioeconomic integration with successful results.
Correlation does not imply causation, so our model does not offer any kind of solution to the
problem of low-achieving schools. However, it does suggest some follow-up studies on the effects
teacher salaries, school size, charter schools, and year-round schooling.
Of the statistically significant predictors, perhaps teacher salary is the most adjustable. In-
deed, higher salaries have been shown to attract teachers from more selective undergraduate in-
stitutions, [5] which has be shown to significantly improve test scores of the students. [4] Thus, it is
a shame that many schools appear to be trading higher quality teachers for more lower quality
teachers in order to improve their student-to-teacher ratio, which has a much smaller effect than
teacher quality.
Given this, the cuts in state education due to the recent recession acquire new significance.
many teachers have been laid off or have been forced to take pay cuts. This results in lower
teacher salaries, which may drive away the high-quality teachers. Moreover, the teachers that are
laid off are often those with little experience. Our study suggests that these teachers may be the

7
most effective. More inquiry is needed in this matter.
Our study comes to an ambiguous conclusion regarding year-round schooling and charter
schools. An experiment with stricter controls and more detailed data needs to be done given the
location of such schools in high-risk areas.
Overall, it appears that there is no magic bullet to solve the nation’s education woes. Even the
best schools do little to alleviate stubbornly persistent socioeconomic inequality. Fads, like smaller
class sizes, year-round schooling, and charter schools do not seem to have a large impact. The
most effective solutions appear to be basic ones: ensuring all children regardless of socioeconomic
status have access to great teachers and making sure they come to school in the first place.

Predictor name Source Level Description


School Name STAR High School Name of high school
District Name STAR High School The district containing the high school
County Name STAR High School The county containing the high school
Grade Span STAR High School Grades taught at the school
School Enrollment STAR High School Number of students in the school
Charter STAR High School Traditional public school or charter
Year Round STAR High School Nine month or year-round school year
Title I STAR High School Federal designation for high-poverty schools
% English Learners STAR High School Percentage of students learning English
% Free Meals STAR High School Percentage of students eligible for free meals
Largest Ethnic Group STAR High School Ethnic group with a plurality of students
% Minority STAR High School Percentage of non-white students
Pupils Per Teacher STAR High School Student-teacher ratio
Pupils Per Administrator STAR High School Student-administrator ratio
Pupils Per SVCS Staff STAR High School Student-service staff ratio (e.g. nurse)
Number Of Teachers STAR High School Number of teachers in the school
FTEs STAR High School Number of full-time employees in the school
% AYP LA Proficient STAR High School Students proficient in language arts
% AYP Math Proficient STAR High School Students proficient in math
District Enrollment STAR District Number of students in the district
ADA STAR District Average daily attendance
Expenditures Per ADA STAR District Money spent per ADA
Revenues per ADA STAR District Money received from government per ADA
Revenue Limit Per ADA STAR District Money cap per ADA
Average Teacher Salary STAR District Average salary of a teacher in the district
% Teachers < 2 years STAR District Teachers who have taught fewer than 2 years
Median Individual Earnings Census County Median earnings for an individual in a county
Median Household Earnings Census County Median household income in a county
Median Household Value Census County Median household value in a county
Density Census County Population density in a county
% AYP LA Proficient + % AYP Math Proficient
API Derived High School 2
Attendance Derived District ADA divided by District Enrollment

Table 4: Table of predictors

8
API School Enrollment Attendance

400
140
100

100 200 300


100
Frequency

Frequency

Frequency
60

60
20

0 20
0

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

log(% English Learners+1) % Free Meals Largest Ethnic Group


40 60 80 100

500
60
Frequency

Frequency

Frequency
40

300
20
20

100
0

0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 W AA AI A F H

Pupils Per Teacher Average Teacher Salary % Teachers < 2 Years


400
250

250
100 200 300
Frequency

Frequency

Frequency
150

150
50

50
0

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Year Round Charter Median Household Value


800

300
200 400 600 800

400 600
Frequency

Frequency

Frequency
100 200
200

0
0

N Y N Y 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Figure 3: Histograms showing the distribution of each variable used in the models; W = White,
AA =African American, AI = American Indian, A = Asian, F = Filipino, and H = Hispanic

9
0.4 0.7 1.0 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.6 1.0
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