t Trimestre Año Xt Ft error t Trimestre Año Xt

1 4 2014 55 1 4 2014 55
2 1 2015 65 2 1 2015 65
3 2 2015 55 60 25 3 2 2015 55
4 3 2015 65 60 25 4 3 2015 65
5 4 2015 76 60 256 5 4 2015 76
6 1 2016 85 70.5 210.25 6 1 2016 85
7 2 2016 75 80.5 30.25 7 2 2016 75
8 3 2016 82 80 4 8 3 2016 82
9 4 2016 84 78.5 30.25 9 4 2016 84
10 1 2017 90 83 49 10 1 2017 90
11 2 2017 65 87 484 11 2 2017 65
12 3 2017 75 77.5 6.25 12 3 2017 75
13 4 2017 86 70 256 13 4 2017 86
14 1 2018 95 80.5 210.25 14 1 2018 95
15 2 2018 84 90.5 42.25 15 2 2018 84
16 3 2018 95 89.5 30.25 16 3 2018 95
17 4 2018 105 89.5 240.25 17 4 2018 105
18 1 2019 115 100 225 18 1 2019 115
19 2 2019 104 110 36 19 2 2019 104
20 3 2019 115 109.5 30.25 20 3 2019 115
21 4 2019 116 109.5 42.25 21 4 2019 116
22 1 2020 128 115.5 156.25 22 1 2020 128
23 2 2020 115 122 49 23 2 2020 115
24 3 2020 125 121.5 12.25 24 3 2020 125
25 4 2020 135 120 225 25 4 2020 135
26 1 2021 145 130 225 26 1 2021 145
27 2 2021 135 140 25 27 2 2021 135
F28: 140 117

MSE F27+p = L27 + p*T27

F solicitado: F28= 140 F solicitado: F30:
F30= L27+3*T27=

SI HUBIERAN PEDIDO EL 4TO TRIMESTRE DEL 2022:

F33=F27+6
F33= L27+6*T27=
 Lt Tt Ft et2 alfa: 0.422947229
55 0 55 0 beta: 0.130123097
59.22947 0.55035 55 100
57.75821 0.28729 59.779824 22.84672
60.98689 0.67004 58.045504 48.36501
67.72329 1.45941 61.656925 205.7238
75.87258 2.32992 69.182698 250.187
76.84801
80.26981
2.15367
2.31868
78.2025
79.001679
10.25601
8.989927
L  X  (1   )( L
t t t 1 T )
t 1
83.18549 2.39636 82.588492 1.992356
87.45049
79.47826
2.63952
1.25868
85.581849
90.090011
19.52006
629.5087
T   ( L  L )  (1   )T
t t t 1 t 1
78.31052 0.94295 80.736944 32.91253
82.1069
88.31839
1.31425
1.95149
79.253469
83.421142
45.51568
134.07
F t p  L  pT
t t
87.61805 1.60643 90.269879 39.31138
91.66722 1.92428 89.224478 33.35665
*Se empieza con L1=X1 , T1=0 , F1=X1
98.4167 2.55215 93.591503 130.1538
106.9033 3.32436 100.96885 196.8732
107.5937 2.98162 110.22765 38.78357
112.4467 3.22513 110.5753 19.57796
115.8106 3.24319 115.67185 0.107683
122.8376 3.73555 119.05383 80.03387
121.6783 3.09862 126.57314 133.9376
124.8713 3.1109 124.77693 0.04976
130.95034 3.497123 127.98217 49.249903
138.91063 4.077884 134.44747 111.35597
139.60979 3.638234 142.98851 63.816368
89.12946

F27+p = L27 + p*T27 MSE

F30=F27+3 ENTONCES p=3
0= L27+3*T27= 150.5245

IDO EL 4TO TRIMESTRE DEL 2022: F33

p=6
3= L27+6*T27= 161.4392
 t Trimestre Año Xt Ind. Est. Xhomog= Xt/IE Fthomog= m*t+b
1 4 2014 55 0.9869187 55.7290081177 m=
2 1 2015 65 1.0860612 59.849296911 b=
3 2 2015 55 0.9508669 57.8419562928
4 3 2015 65 0.9761532 66.5879071557 2do trimestre 2022
5 4 2015 76 0.9869187 77.0073566717 t=
6 1 2016 85 1.0860612 78.2644651913 Fthomog=
7 2 2016 75 0.9508669 78.8753949447
8 3 2016 82 0.9761532 84.0032059502 Ftfinal= Fthomog*IE=
9 4 2016 84 0.9869187 85.1133942161
10 1 2017 90 1.0860612 82.8682572614
11 2 2017 65 0.9508669 68.3586756187 Trimestre
12 3 2017 75 0.9761532 76.8322005642 1
13 4 2017 86 0.9869187 87.1399036022 2
14 1 2018 95 1.0860612 87.4720493315 3
15 2 2018 84 0.9508669 88.3404423381 4 55
16 3 2018 95 0.9761532 97.3207873814
17 4 2018 105 0.9869187 106.39174277
18 1 2019 115 1.0860612 105.887217612
19 2 2019 104 0.9508669 109.37388099
20 3 2019 115 0.9761532 117.809374199
21 4 2019 116 0.9869187 117.537544394
22 1 2020 128 1.0860612 117.857076994
23 2 2020 115 0.9508669 120.942272249
24 3 2020 125 0.9761532 128.053667607
25 4 2020 135 0.9869187 136.789383562
26 1 2021 145 1.0860612 133.509970032
27 2 2021 135 0.9508669 141.9757109

F solicitado: 2do trimestre 2022

F31:

Xt
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728
3.07905793
51.9943794

31
147.4

140.2

promedio IE
65 85 90 95 115 128 145 103.2857143 1.086061213
55 75 65 84 104 115 135 90.42857143 0.950866871
65 82 75 95 115 125 92.83333333 0.97615322
76 84 86 105 116 135 93.85714286 0.986918696
prom: 95.10119048 1
 t Trimestre Año Xt Ft error t Trimestre Año Xt
1 4 2014 55 1 4 2014 55
2 1 2015 65 2 1 2015 65
3 2 2015 55 60 25 3 2 2015 55
4 3 2015 65 60 25 4 3 2015 65
5 4 2015 76 60 256 5 4 2015 76
6 1 2016 85 70.5 210.25 6 1 2016 85
7 2 2016 75 80.5 30.25 7 2 2016 75
8 3 2016 82 80 4 8 3 2016 82
9 4 2016 84 78.5 30.25 9 4 2016 84
10 1 2017 90 83 49 10 1 2017 90
11 2 2017 65 87 484 11 2 2017 65
12 3 2017 75 77.5 6.25 12 3 2017 75
13 4 2017 86 70 256 13 4 2017 86
14 1 2018 95 80.5 210.25 14 1 2018 95
15 2 2018 84 90.5 42.25 15 2 2018 84
16 3 2018 95 89.5 30.25 16 3 2018 95
17 4 2018 105 89.5 240.25 17 4 2018 105
18 1 2019 115 100 225 18 1 2019 115
19 2 2019 104 110 36 19 2 2019 104
20 3 2019 115 109.5 30.25 20 3 2019 115
21 4 2019 116 109.5 42.25 21 4 2019 116
22 1 2020 128 115.5 156.25 22 1 2020 128
23 2 2020 115 122 49 23 2 2020 115
24 3 2020 125 121.5 12.25 24 3 2020 125
25 4 2020 135 120 225 25 4 2020 135
26 1 2021 145 130 225 26 1 2021 145
27 2 2021 135 140 25 27 2 2021 135
F28: 140 117

MSE F27+p = L27 + p*T27

F solicitado: F28= 140 F solicitado: F30:
F30= L27+3*T27=

SI HUBIERAN PEDIDO EL 4TO TRIMESTRE DEL 2022:

F33=F27+6
F33= L27+6*T27=
 Lt Tt Ft et2 alfa: 0.422947229
55 0 55 0 beta: 0.130123097
59.22947 0.55035 55 100
57.75821 0.28729 59.779824 22.84672
60.98689 0.67004 58.045504 48.36501
67.72329 1.45941 61.656925 205.7238
75.87258 2.32992 69.182698 250.187
76.84801
80.26981
2.15367
2.31868
78.2025
79.001679
10.25601
8.989927
L  X  (1   )( L
t t t 1 T )
t 1
83.18549 2.39636 82.588492 1.992356
87.45049
79.47826
2.63952
1.25868
85.581849
90.090011
19.52006
629.5087
T   ( L  L )  (1   )T
t t t 1 t 1
78.31052 0.94295 80.736944 32.91253
82.1069
88.31839
1.31425
1.95149
79.253469
83.421142
45.51568
134.07
F t p  L  pT
t t
87.61805 1.60643 90.269879 39.31138
91.66722 1.92428 89.224478 33.35665
*Se empieza con L1=X1 , T1=0 , F1=X1
98.4167 2.55215 93.591503 130.1538
106.9033 3.32436 100.96885 196.8732
107.5937 2.98162 110.22765 38.78357
112.4467 3.22513 110.5753 19.57796
115.8106 3.24319 115.67185 0.107683
122.8376 3.73555 119.05383 80.03387
121.6783 3.09862 126.57314 133.9376
124.8713 3.1109 124.77693 0.04976
130.95034 3.497123 127.98217 49.249903
138.91063 4.077884 134.44747 111.35597
139.60979 3.638234 142.98851 63.816368
89.12946

F27+p = L27 + p*T27 MSE

F30=F27+3 ENTONCES p=3
0= L27+3*T27= 150.5245

IDO EL 4TO TRIMESTRE DEL 2022: F33

p=6
3= L27+6*T27= 161.4392
 t Trimestre Año Xt Ind. Est. Xhomog= Xt/IE Fthomog Ftfinal error^2= (Xt-Ftfinal)^2
1 4 2014 55 0.9869187 55.7290081177 55.1 54.4 0.4
2 1 2015 65 1.0860612 59.849296911 58.2 63.2 3.4
3 2 2015 55 0.9508669 57.8419562928 61.2 58.2 10.4
4 3 2015 65 0.9761532 66.5879071557 64.3 62.8 4.9
5 4 2015 76 0.9869187 77.0073566717 67.4 66.5 90.1
6 1 2016 85 1.0860612 78.2644651913 70.5 76.5 71.7
7 2 2016 75 0.9508669 78.8753949447 73.5 69.9 25.7
8 3 2016 82 0.9761532 84.0032059502 76.6 74.8 51.8
9 4 2016 84 0.9869187 85.1133942161 79.7 78.7 28.5
10 1 2017 90 1.0860612 82.8682572614 82.8 89.9 0.0
11 2 2017 65 0.9508669 68.3586756187 85.9 81.6 277.1
12 3 2017 75 0.9761532 76.8322005642 88.9 86.8 139.8
13 4 2017 86 0.9869187 87.1399036022 92.0 90.8 23.2
14 1 2018 95 1.0860612 87.4720493315 95.1 103.3 68.7
15 2 2018 84 0.9508669 88.3404423381 98.2 93.4 87.5
16 3 2018 95 0.9761532 97.3207873814 101.3 98.8 14.8
17 4 2018 105 0.9869187 106.39174277 104.3 103.0 4.1
18 1 2019 115 1.0860612 105.887217612 107.4 116.7 2.8
19 2 2019 104 0.9508669 109.37388099 110.5 105.1 1.1
20 3 2019 115 0.9761532 117.809374199 113.6 110.9 17.1
21 4 2019 116 0.9869187 117.537544394 116.7 115.1 0.8
22 1 2020 128 1.0860612 117.857076994 119.7 130.0 4.2
23 2 2020 115 0.9508669 120.942272249 122.8 116.8 3.2
24 3 2020 125 0.9761532 128.053667607 125.9 122.9 4.5
25 4 2020 135 0.9869187 136.789383562 129.0 127.3 59.5
26 1 2021 145 1.0860612 133.509970032 132.0 143.4 2.5
27 2 2021 135 0.9508669 141.9757109 135.1 128.5 42.4
38.5

MSE
F solicitado: 2do trimestre 2022
F31:

Xt
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
 Fthomog= m*t+b
m= 3.07905793
b= 51.9943794

2do trimestre 2022

t= 31
Fthomog= 147.4

Ftfinal= Fthomog*IE= 140.2

Trimestre
1 65 85 90 95 115 128 145
2 55 75 65 84 104 115 135
3 65 82 75 95 115 125
4 55 76 84 86 105 116 135
prom:
 promedio IE
103.2857143 1.086061213
90.42857143 0.950866871
92.83333333 0.97615322
93.85714286 0.986918696
95.10119048 1