www.mulatpinoy.

ph P a g e | 18

Myth # 8: Highly populated countries like India and China are successful because of their large populations,
while other countries are experiencing a “demographic winter.”
FACT: India and China have been trying to reduce population growth and family sizes for decades, and their
growth is due to the improving productivity of their citizens. The Philippines is 100 years away from a
“demographic winter,” and even with lowered population growth and fertility rates, will already reach 160
million in 2060. Without this, the Philippines may have an unsustainable population of 240 million people.
 Countries like India and China are successful because they are able to take care of their population, and have been
actively trying to reduce their growth rate for decades. Their population is more productive.
o India and China may have higher GDPs, but consider their significantly lower TFRs and growth rates.
 As comparisons are frequently drawn with Thailand, their numbers are also in the table below:

Table 8.1: General comparison of India, China, Thailand and the Philippines 65

India China Philippines Thailand

Population 1.1 billion (2nd 1.3 billion (most 99 million (12th 67 million (20th
most populous) populous country) most populous) most populous)
Growth Rate 1.4% 0.5% 1.9% 0.7%
Total Fertility Rate 2.65 children 1.54 children 3.23 children 1.65
(TFR)
GDP 8% 10% 7.1% 7.6%
Per Capita Income $3,290 $6,838 $3,546 $8,700
Unemployment Rate 10.8% 4.3% 7.5% 1.2%

 India reports several difficulties with their increasing population.66

o Environment: “Rapid population growth, developmental activities either to meet the growing population or
the growing needs of the population as well as changing lifestyles and consumption patterns pose major
challenge to preservation and promotion of ecological balance in India.”
o Urbanization: 29% of the population lives in urban areas. “Urban population growth has outpaced the
development of basic minimum services; housing, water supply, sewerage and solid waste disposal are far
from adequate; increasing waste generation at home, offices and industries, coupled with poor waste disposal
facilities result in rapid environmental deterioration. Increasing automobiles add to air pollution. All these have
adverse effect on ecology and health. Poverty persists in urban and peri-urban areas; awareness about the
glaring inequities in close urban setting may lead to social unrest.”
o Rural Development: “Over 70% of India’s population still lives in rural areas,” and they are still dependent on
agriculture for employment.”There is substantial under employment among these people; both wages and
productivity are low. These in turn result in poverty; it is estimated that 320 million people are still living below
the poverty line in rural India. Though poverty has declined over the last three decades, the number of rural
poor has in fact increased due to the population growth.”
o India’s government has been advocating family planning since the 50s. “By the late 1960s, many policy
makers believed that the high rate of population growth was the greatest obstacle to economic development.
The government began a massive program to lower the birth rate from forty-one per 1,000 to a target of
twenty to twenty-five per 1,000 by the mid-1970s.” During the 1980s, an increased number of family planning
programs were implemented. In rural areas, the programs were further extended through a network of
primary health centers and subcenters. By 1991, India had more than 150,000 public health facilities through
which family planning programs were offered.”67

65
CIA World Factbook: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html
66
POPULATION GROWTH - Trends, Projections, Challenges and Opportunities Working Paper No. 2/2000-PC. By Prema Ramachandran,
Mohan Singh, A.N. Kapoor , K.K. Lamba, Planning Commission, Government of India
67
India, Country Studies/Area Handbook Series, Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress
 www.mulatpinoy.ph P a g e | 19

 China now has a low growth rate and low TFR from its deliberate family planning policy efforts. Still, the increase
in population has already done its damage:
o Environment: According to the World Bank, “Much of *China’s+ energy-producing and -using equipment is both
inefficient and highly polluting. As a result, China experiences severe urban air pollution that has a significant
impact throughout the region. It is the world’s 2nd-largest source of GHG emissions… of the 20 cities
worldwide with the most polluted air, 16 are in China.”68
o Urbanization: China has seen a drastic increase in its urban population since the 1950s. “This costs in the
dislocation of people and in resource consumption, [and] will be inevitably accompanied by dramatic increases
in the consumption of water, land, energy, and mineral resources’69 China today is on the verge of being
majority-urban, with an estimated two thirds of Chinese living in cities by 2030 (half).”70
o Rural Development: Rapid growth and unchecked modernization have jeopardized China’s farmlands. “China’s
air quality has affected vegetation and agriculture. Sulfur dioxide has given China ‘some of the world’s worst
acid rain. An estimated 30% of China’s cropland is suffering from acidification, and the resulting damage to
farms, forests, and human health is projected at $13 billion.’ 1/4th of China’s land is desert, and desertification
is proceeding at a pace of more than 1,300 square miles/year. Practices such as ‘overcultivation, overgrazing,
and firewood collection,’ along with destruction of natural vegetation, have intensified this, reducing the
capacity of soil to hold water, suppresses airflow rise and convergence, enhances surface albedo, intensifies
downward airflow, and ultimately leads to climatic aridification.’”71
o China’s various governments have been trying to curb their population growth since 1949. Different
campaigns have tried different tactics, such as emphasis on “virtues of late marriage.” “Birth control offices
were set up in 1964. The campaign was particularly successful in the cities, where the birth rate was cut in half
during the 1963-66 period.”72 Notwithstanding the controversial 1-child policy implementation, nearly all the
fall in the TFR took place before the 1-child policy was instituted.
o China also illustrates the problem of demographic momentum – although Chinese couples on average have
1.8 children, as a result of rapid population growth a generation ago, the number of married fertile women is
still growing. China has 7 million more births than deaths each year; the Philippine population will also
continue to grow long after it reaches replacement level fertility.

 Though India and China are economically successful because of their large population, “This has been attributed to
the increase in productivity due to development and utilization of innovative technologies by the young educated
population who formed the majority of the growing population.
o These have been able to exploit the dynamics of demographic transition to achieve economic growth by using
human resources as the driver of economic development; improved employment with adequate emoluments
has promoted saving and investment which in turn stimulated economic growth.”73
o The ‘demographic dividend (changing age structure) that followed access to family planning is thought to
account for up tone third of the economic growth.74
 The prospect of a so-called “demographic winter” – birth death, aging, etc. – while occurring in varying degrees in
highly advanced countries, is as distant as about 100 years from today for the Philippines.75

68
Cann, C.W., Cann, M.C., & Gao Shangquan. 2005. China's road to sustainable development: An overview. China's Environment and the Challenge of
Sustainable Development. New York, M.E. Sharpe. pp. 3-34.
69
Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China, Lei Shen, Shengkui Cheng, Aaron James Gunson, Hui Wan. Institute
of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), CAS, Beijing 100101, PR China. University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T
1Z4. China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, PR China
70
China and the Path to Environmental Sustainability, by Ethan Goffman. Released August 2007. http://www.csa.com/discoveryguides/china/review.pdf
71
Ibid.
72
China, Country Studies/Area Handbook Series, Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress
73
POPULATION GROWTH - Trends, Projections, Challenges and Opportunities Working Paper No. 2/2000-PC. By Prema Ramachandran, Mohan Singh, A.N.
Kapoor , K.K. Lamba, Planning Commission, Government of India
74
Birdsall, N., A. C. Kelley, et al. (2001). Population matters: demographic change, economic growth, and poverty in the developing world,
Oxford University Press, USA.
75
Pernia, Ernesto PhD, et al. Population and Development: the Real Score.” University of the Philippines. 2004. pp. 14-15
 www.mulatpinoy.ph P a g e | 20

o Projections indicate that, if TFR continues to decline by 0.2 children every five years, replacement fertility of
2.1 children per woman would be reached only by 2040 (See Figure 8.2).
o However, the effects of population momentum would persist for another 60 years before population ceases to
grow, by which time the Philippines’ total population would be 240 million.
 For example, Thailand’s population, which has reached below-replacement fertility for some time,
continues to grow owing to population momentum.
o The UP School of Economics affirms that, “Much of the talk of a demographic winter is greatly exaggerated
and can only be regarded as a plain and simple scare tactic to instill fear in people’s minds. It appears to be
peddled by people who are simply unaware of population dynamics or, worse, who intend to mislead.”76
o As empirically proven, a high quality family planning program (access to education, provision of modern and
natural family planning methods) can reduce high fertility rates closer to replacement rats than economic
development or poverty reduction alone.77
Figure 8.2 Population Momentum in the Philippines

Table 1: The year in which a country reaches replacement level fertility

has a major impact on its ultimate population size.

Philippines
250

200
Population (millions)

150
2060
2040
100
2020
2010
50

Total fertility rate: 3.2 (2010)

Unmet need for family planning: 17% (2008)
Population Reference Bureau

76
Pernia, Ernesto PhD, et al. Population and Development: the Real Score.” University of the Philippines. 2004.
77
Boongarts, J. The Role of Family Planning Programmes in Contemporary Fertility Transitions.” in, The Continuing Demographic Transition.
Jones, G.W, et al (eds.). Oxford: Clarendon Press. 1997. See Also, Tsui, A.O. “Population Policies, Family Planning Programs, and Fertility:
for the Record. In, Global Fertility Transition. Bulatao, R.A. and Casterline, J.B (eds.). Population and Development Review. Supplement to
Vol. 27. New York: Population Council.